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July 5 MLB DFS: Evening Wood
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Welcome to July 5 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 5 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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July 5 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:03 Starting Pitcher
10:34 Catcher
12:35 First Base
14:33 Second Base
16:53 Third Base
19:19 Shortstop
21:35 Outfield
26:06 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

July 5 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Alex Wood (LAD) sits very clearly at the top of the starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday’s evening slate. He gets the benefit of elite pitching conditions in Los Angeles (low 70s, great park) and facing a Diamondbacks’ offense that gets a big park downgrade. Arizona did get AJ Pollock back on Tuesday which makes them a more dangerous lineup against LHP but they’re still short Yasmany Tomas and on the season they rank just 29th in wRC+ against LHP. Wood is a monstrous favorite (-235) and the Diamondbacks have just a 3.2 implied run total against. Wood’s price tag is now appropriate on DraftKings ($11,600) but he’s still underpriced on FanDuel ($9,400). With a Coors Field slate in play and a few strong cheap SP options, Wood isn’t necessarily a cash game lock on DraftKings but we’d consider him just that on FanDuel.

The next highest ranked starters on the slate are Jacob deGrom (NYM) and Trevor Bauer (CLE). deGrom is fully priced and draws a watered down version of the Nationals’ lineup (no Turner, Werth, Eaton, etc) but still has a hefty 4.4 implied run total against. He’s only viable in tournaments and we’d only pursue that angle if it came with really low ownership. Bauer comes with a soft price tag on DraftKings ($7,300) once again and an elite matchup against the inept Padres’ offense. Bauer is a volatile commodity but the price tag and matchup make him an elite cash game starter. We expect hefty ownership will make him a strong potential fade or underweight on a fairly full slate. On FanDuel, a more appropriate price tag and likely more condensed ownership on Wood, makes Bauer a fine tournament target.

Michael Pineda (NYY) and Gerrit Cole (PIT) are in the next tier of options but both are overpriced for cash game consideration. Both draw tough pitching environments though Cole gets a strong matchup with the Phillies 28th ranked offense in wRC+ against RHP. Pineda gets the Jays (22nd). The price tags make them viable tournament pivots from the chalkier options (Bauer, Wood, etc) on both sites. Though in a tier below, Marco Estrada (TOR) and Jon Gray (COL) are other cheap options with big strikeout upside that warrant GPP consideration. UPDATE: A few too many fireworks and beverages for our boys on the 4th as Pineda and Estrada are on the early slate.

The final name we’re considering as a potential cash game option on DraftKings is Ariel Miranda (SEA). The Royals are a bottom third offense against LHP and getting a park downgrade. Like Andrew Moore on Monday night, Miranda doesn’t project for a lot of strikeouts but his biggest weakness (home runs) is mitigated some by the Royals’ lack of power. This is simply a price play on a slate with Coors Field where Miranda’s $5,900 tag makes him a viable value to pursue. We think he’s cash viable on DK but is a more likely tournament target for most.

Catcher

Buster Posey (SF) is the top ranked catcher in our model, but whether or not you can afford him will depend on your build at SP. Posey will be outside of his home ballpark (a big plus) and draws the platoon edge on left-hander Daniel Norris. Posey has shown a slight power resurgence this season (.183 ISO) and has historically flexed his muscles against left-handers (.192 ISO since 2015). If we’re going to get “upside” from him, it is in a matchup like this.

If saving, there are a few different routes to build through. On DraftKings, Tony Wolters (COL) is just $2,900 and will provide you exposure to Coors Field. Sure, Wolters is low order, low upside player but you can do worse when looking to cut costs. Hector Sanchez (SD) is back for the Padres and has been hitting fifth. Though we like Trevor Bauer at SP, Sanchez provides some additional potential in terms of salary relief at just $2,400 on DraftKings and $2,000 on FanDuel. Evan Gattis (HOU) is priced above Posey on DK, but on FanDuel he’s just $2,900. He’s posted a large positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days and will hold the platoon edge on Jaime Garcia.

First Base

Mark Reynolds (COL) is somehow less than $4,000 on DraftKings in a home matchup with Scott Feldman. Feldman has allowed more than two runs just once in his last five starts, but all have come in friendly parks. No platoon edge is no problem for Reynolds either, as he’s posted a .202 ISO against RHP since 2015. For $3,900, he is your cash game play on DraftKings.

While our preference is to fit Reynolds, there are a whole host of other underpriced options on DraftKings, with others standing out on FanDuel. Miguel Cabrera (DET), Mitch Moreland (BOS), and Albert Pujols (LAA) represent a trio that rate well on a per dollar basis on both sites. Pujols is the cheapest, but Moreland is our favorite option – drawing a matchup with Andrew Cashner in the great Texas weather. A strong 15-day Hard% and a matchup with the lucky performance of Cashner this season puts him on our radar for cash games on FanDuel where he’ll bring you a $700 discount over Reynolds. Josh Bell (PIT) would be an even cheaper option on FanDuel as he’ll get to hit from the left-side against Ben Lively in a park shift in his favor.

Joey Votto (CIN) is expensive, but will play the opposite end of the Coors Field game and Eric Thames (MIL) will draw a left-on-left matchup that should deplete his ownership. Both are excellent tournament options.

Second Base

Jonathan Villar (MIL) and Brian Dozier (MIN) represent the top two options at 2B in our model. Villar has hit first or second in each of his last five starts and will likely be there again against left-hander Jayson Aquino. Aquino has spent time in the big league pen, but has only made one start at the highest level – pitching quite well in a game back in April. Still though, he projects as a 5.66 ERA via ZiPS and similarly is a low strikeout arm who struggles with command – the perfect opposition for someone in Villar who struggles with contact, but can realize upside when on base.

Dozier is the higher floor play and comes with plenty upside of his own in a matchup with Parker Bridwell, but we’ll need to ensure he’s in the lineup as he’s missed two days with a pinched nerve. Bridwell, a fly ball guy, has now made four starts and has outperformed a 5.39 xFIP yet still has allowed 2.30 HR/9 while not being able to strike out anyone. Dozier comes at a $200 discount on DraftKings, and is only $200 more expensive on FanDuel. He’s our preferred cash game choice if choosing between the two, but is an excellent tournament option as well.

Jose Altuve (HOU) rates just behind this group and will get the platoon edge on Jaime Garcia. Garcia’s best attributes have started to deteriorate a bit as he’s striking out less hitters, walking more and getting ever so slightly less ground balls. At just $5,000 on DraftKings, Altuve is a potential option with high upside depending on your SP build.

D.J. LeMahieu (COL), Ian Kinsler (DET), Jason Kipnis (CLE), and Rougned Odor (TEX) all rate similarly and are priced in the same range on both sites. Any of them could be used as a tournament play that might generate some lower ownership. LeMahieu in particular holds cash game merit getting a great lineup spot in Coors.

Third Base

We’d love to be able to force in Nolan Arenado (COL) on a slate in Coors with Scott Feldman, and although it’s quite feasible there are options if you don’t have quite enough salary. Manny Machado (BAL) has dipped all the way down to just $3,500 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel and will now draw a matchup with Matt Garza. Despite what seems like a lack of production, he’s posted a slight positive delta in Hard% and the Orioles have an implied run total of five runs on the road in a good ball park. He’s too good to be this cheap.

Freddie Freeman (ATL) is 3B eligible on FanDuel and is just $3,500 against Joe Musgrove. Musgrove has been an easy target thus far this season, allowing a 6.01 ERA and 1.87 HR/9. Freeman was just activated, so there are some potential rust concerns, but the price is very attractive.

Miguel Sano (MIN) is $200 more than Freeman, but presents a more attractive overall option against Parker Bridwell. Sano’s struggles come when not making contact, luckily Bridwell doesn’t strike people out and is susceptible to power. Sano has plenty of that, posting a .249 ISO against RHP since 2015. He holds secondary cash viability and is an excellent tournament option.

Alex Bregman (HOU) and Eugenio Suarez (CIN) are another pair of options from good team environments that just lag behind the other options as far as upside goes.

Shortstop

Trevor Story (COL) and Francisco Lindor (CLE) represent the top two shortstop options in our model. Story doesn’t get a good lineup spot, but gets Coors Field and a team implied run total upwards of 6.5 runs. Lindor will draw the wide platoon splits of Luis Perdomo, who is taking on a negative park and league shift moving away from Petco Park. Lindor has corrected some of his horrible hard hit data, posting a slight positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days but he’s only homered one time in the last month and hasn’t stolen a base in even more time.

The issue is the strong drop off when you move away from these options. It would be great to pay for Carlos Correa (HOU) or Xander Bogaerts (BOS) but given our preference to spend at other positions, that seems unwise for cash games.

That might have us looking at options like Brandon Crawford (SF), Freddy Galvis (PHI), or Jorge Polanco (MIN). Crawford will draw L-on-L, but is just $2,400 on DraftKings. Galvis comes with the best lineup spot and the platoon edge on Gerrit Cole, but he’s not exactly an enticing play. Still though, he’s posted a .142 ISO against RHP since 2015 – a respectable mark for such a cheap play. Polanco will get the best overall context, but he’ll likely come with the worst lineup spot. At $3,000 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings though, it might be a price you have to pay.

Outfield

Carlos Gonzalez (COL) and Charlie Blackmon (COL) are the top per dollar plays on both sites and will both hold the platoon edge on Scott Feldman. Blackmon represents the top spend, but it’s Carlos Gonzalez who is the more pivotal play due to his absurd price tag. He’s at just $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel after recently returning from the disabled list. He’s been a frustrating roster all season long, but he’s coming off a multi-hit game and drew a 4th place lineup spot last night. He is key to allowing you to spend at SP and getting exposure to Coors Field.

Seth Smith (BAL) represents a top per dollar play on both sites as he’ll be the road leadoff hitter against Matt Garza. He does have some pinch hit risk (Brewers pen has two left-handers), but he’ll get at least a few at-bats off of Garza and has posted a .182 ISO against RHP since 2015. The price tag and the opportunity at the top of the order on the road are enough to take on some pinch hit risk.

On the other side of that game, Ryan Braun (MIL) and Keon Broxton (MIL) rate as top ten OF values. Each will hold the platoon edge on Aquino and Broxton in particular comes with lots of salary relief. The pair hold plenty of power potential, having posted .222 and .198 ISOs respectively against LHP since 2015.

Andrew Benintendi (BOS), Adam Jones (BAL), and Mark Trumbo (BAL) are another trio of options with middling price tags available on both sites. Unfortunately, they don’t come with quite enough overall upside or per dollar value to be able to crack an outfield that will likely come with two spots pre-filled with Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez.

Odubel Herrera (PHI) has hit 7th in each of his last two starts against RHP, but hit leadoff in the two previous starts. A fluid Phillies lineup might move him around but if he should get a good leadoff spot he would be a great value option against Gerrit Cole.

J.D. Martinez (DET), Billy Hamilton (CIN), Adam Duvall (CIN) and a whole host of others find themselves as great tournament options in a crowded outfield position today.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

The Rockies once again pace the field with an implied total over 6.5 runs and temperatures forecasted in the low-to-mid 90s. In cash games, they are a focal point. The question is where ownership will land in GPPs and what side you want to be on it. The lower scoring affairs in the first two games may help keep things in check but these are different conditions. It’s warmer in Colorado than the previous two nights and in general cooler around the country. Our lean is to aim for overweights.

Tier Two

2) Milwaukee Brewers

3) Cincinnati Reds

4) Boston Red Sox

The Brewers are an intriguing stack with power and speed upside amplified by the Orioles weak pen. The Orioles will get Zach Britton back but it’s unlikely he’s pitching unless the stack failed anyway. The Red Sox aren’t particularly well equipped to take down Cashner who struggles with command against LHBs but handles RHBs ok because of a great GB Rate.

Tier Three

5) Cleveland Indians

 

6) Baltimore Orioles

7) Texas Rangers

8) Houston Astros

9) Minnesota Twins

10) Detroit Tigers

11) Pittsburgh Pirates

The Orioles are an interesting cheap stack on both sites and one that may get overlooked on this slate. Of course Trumbo left early yesterday so the lineup they roll out could really impact their appeal dramatically, but they are very affordable. The Pirates are almost always coming with low ownership, especially on this slate, and remain a strong way to get contrarian in very large field GPPs. With warm weather in MIN, the Twins are an intriguing target. Dozier’s health will likely dictate what kind of ownership follows as without him, Sano is the only threat to carry meaningful ownership.

 

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