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July 6 MLB DFS: Muy Lindo(r)
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Welcome to July 6 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 6 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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July 6 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
12:18 Catcher
14:27 First Base
17:02 Second Base
18:42 Third Base
20:58 Shortstop
23:26 Outfield
27:30 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

July 6 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Chris Sale (BOS) is on the slate. You should play him.

Sale is getting a positive park shift and facing a Rays’ offense that is weaker against LHP (17th in wRC+) while striking out at a 26.5 percent rate. The gap between Sale and the next highest projected starter (Robbie Ray) is wide and makes Sale the priority spend on the slate on both sites.

The next tier of starters in our projections includes Robbie Ray (ARI) and Lance McCullers (HOU). The park upgrade for Ray is large but while the Dodgers are often thought of as weak against LHP they actually rank third in wRC+ this season and are second in the majors in ISO. This is the reason for the 4.2 implied run total against. McCullers gets a park downgrade but faces a Jays’ offense that has dipped to 23rd in wRC+ against RHP and ranks 29th in pitch value against the curveball which is McCullers signature pitch. It’s viable to pair Sale on DraftKings with Ray or McCullers but you’ll need to find salary relief on offense to make it work. Our projections prefer Ray who comes with a few more strikeouts built in against the National League and has been working deeper of late. The third wheel of this projection tier in our mind (but not in our math) is Jose Berrios (MIN). Berrios is the interesting one as the Orioles are terribly RH heavy (Berrios has dominated RHBs this year – .246 wOBA, .106 ISO, 18.8 hard hit rate, 29.4 K Rate) and have been struggling mightily of late. Berrios’ stuff suggests he has similar upside to McCullers and Ray and this matchup is one that could unlock it. Berrios’ projection is held back by Baltimore’s historically strong bats against RHP and Berrios’ horrible season last year that is baked into his baselines. We believe Berrios has turned the corner a bit more than the math suggests and the recent struggles of the Orioles’ offense (getting shut down by Matt Garza/Jimmy Nelson, etc) makes us more comfortable considering Berrios in this tier. He’s a cheaper pairing for Sale in cash games.

The next tier of starters includes Gio Gonzalez (WAS) and Rich Hill (LAD) who carry aggressive price tags. Gonzalez is impossible to use at over $11,000 and while Hill looked like he re-discovered his form last time out, you’re now paying full price for it to continue. Of the two, Hill is more viable in tournaments, but both carry more downside than upside at these price tags on DraftKings. They’re more viable on FanDuel though we prefer Ray/McCullers ahead of them at similar tags. On DraftKings, in tournaments dropping down from Sale and pairing two of Ray-McCullers-Berrios is a strong strategy.

If you’re looking for salary relief to build a stronger offense on DraftKings the primary target is Josh Tomlin (CLE). There is nothing special about Tomlin. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with above average control and below average K Rates. He is facing the Padres though and he’s hovering around $6,000 on DraftKings. The Padres rank 27th in wRC+ against RHP, 19th in ISO, and dead last against curveballs which is Tomlin’s primary breaking ball. He’s a big favorite (-180) with a 4.1 implied total against which on this slate is really strong. The primary alternative to Tomlin is Dylan Bundy (BAL) who comes with more pedigree but has been basically the same type of pitcher as Tomlin with more walks.

Catcher

The catcher position carries very little depth in this slate and it’s a position we’re looking to get out cheap while holding some upside. It’s easy to go this route on FD and feel great about it, thanks to a $2,700 Evan Gattis (HOU) with the platoon edge in a good hitting environment. Since 2015, Gattis has generated a .214 ISO vs. LHP.

On DK, Gattis is priced appropriately and we’re left searching for cheaper targets. Russell Martin (TOR) won’t have the platoon edge and the matchup isn’t any good (McCullers), but he’s been hitting second and has the price tag we’re looking for ($2,600). Chris Iannetta (ARI) will have the platoon edge against Rich Hill, who’s coming off his best start of the season. However, we don’t mind picking on him with a RHB at a dire position, and Iannetta has some pop (.181 ISO vs. LHP since 2015).

Matt Wieters (WSH) can be used in Nationals stacks in tournaments as a way to have access to another LHB vs. Foltynewicz.

First Base

Wil Myers (SD) is the top projected scorer at first base, marginally beating Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) in projection. We love Goldy with the platoon edge, but the price difference here is massive. Myers is $1,100 cheaper than Goldy on both sites, making him the better point per dollar target by a large margin. Tomlin is a usable pitcher tonight given the lack of SP2 options on DK that make sense to pair with Sale in cash games, but it doesn’t mean you can’t pick on him, especially with an underpriced hitter like Myers. Since 2015, Tomlin has allowed a .371 wOBA and a gaudy .243 ISO to RHBs.

Mitch Moreland (BOS) is another cheap target worth cash game consideration on DK. Moreland is just $3,300 on that site with the platoon edge, but the matchup and hitting environment aren’t great. He’s simply another option at the position on that site that fits a Chris Sale slate.

On FD, it’s reasonable to get up to Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) over Myers since the discrepancy in price doesn’t seem like much (just $300), but in this slate a few hundred dollars could help you significantly at other positions.

Ryan Zimmerman (WSH) and Yonder Alonso (OAK) are viable upside alternatives in tournaments. Zimmerman has been slumping a bit of late, which has brought down his price tag around the industry. Yuli Gurriel (HOU) has been red hot lately and comes in with a 47.5% HHR over the L15. He’s a great target in tournaments.

Second Base

Brian Dozier (MIN) remains free on DK ($3,900) and has a good price tag on FD as well ($3,400). He’s the top projected scorer at second base, and the ridiculous price tag for a leadoff hitter with upside makes him a near lock in cash games on DK. Going back to that upside note –  Dozier has generated a .220 ISO vs. RHP since 2015 and he will run (10 SBs this season – ZiPS projects 8 more SBs for the ROS).

On FD, Jason Kipnis (CLE) is $600 cheaper ($2,800) and those sort of savings will help you in the OF. The challenge with Kipnis is simply health – he was scratched last night with a stiff neck, so we’ll have to check back on his status before deploying him.

Jose Altuve (HOU) with the platoon edge at just $4,000 on FD makes him the second best point per dollar target behind Dozier on that site, but you’re simply not going to be able to pay that sort of price tag if Sale is your anchor. The same can be said for Robinson Cano (SEA), who’s an excellent tournament play. Cano’s HHR remains elevated over the L15 (34%), and he’ll have the platoon edge against a rookie SP who’s only making his second start of the season.

Third Base

We realize that Manny Machado (BAL) hasn’t been very productive lately (though his HHR is still positive), but these price tags for him around the industry are insane. Machado is $3,800 on DK and $3,200 on FD. He won’t have the platoon edge and Jose Berrios has been great from a results standpoint this season, but Machado has strong production vs. RHP (.360 wOBA, .231 ISO since 2015) which is the reason why these price tags are laughable. He remains a great cash game target.

Miguel Sano (MIN) is the top projected scorer at third base. Sano’s price tags are a little bit more appropriate, which makes it difficult to use him in cash games (particularly on FD). You could take this route on DK, but we’d rather make a bigger spend in the OF on that site.

Kyle Seager (SEA) is owed some HRs this season (47% FB rate, 8.3% HR/FB rate this season and he’s posted HR/FB rates over 12% in each of his L3 seasons), and he’s just $2,500 on FD. If you’re looking away from Machado in cash games on that site, Seager is our favorite pivot. Otherwise, Seager is a good target in tournaments. Alex Bregman (HOU) can be used as part of an Astros stack in tournaments. Bregman has a 35.5% HHR over the L15. He hits lower in the order, so we’re not expecting much ownership here.

Shortstop

The shortstop position is very ugly. We’re going back to Francisco Lindor (CLE), who’s our only positive value at the position on DK and carries a cheap price tag on both sites. Dinelson Lamet as a matchup feels very boom or bust given his big K rate along with the hard contact he’s allowing (25% hard minus soft hit rate). Vegas thinks this is a tough spot for the rookie SP, as Cleveland has an IRT of 5.4 runs.

It’s possible that you might need to get away from Lindor on FD despite the $3,300 price tag, but the cheaper alternatives aren’t there right now. Maybe Stephen Drew (WSH) gets a decent lineup spot and emerges at a punt price, but as of right now we have him hitting eight. Even if Drew stays buried in the lineup, he’s a fine target in tournaments given the matchup against a power prone pitcher.

We love Carlos Correa (HOU) with the platoon edge in Rogers Centre, but the price tag is too steep to go that route in cash games. We’ll also have to make sure that Correa is in the lineup as he didn’t play last night with an ailing thumb.

Outfield

Bryce Harper (WSH) and George Springer (HOU) represent the top projected scorers in the slate regardless of position. Ideally, we’d like to use at least one of these OFs in cash games on DK where they can erase a bad performance from a cheap SP. The matchup edge goes to Harper given Foltynewicz’s struggles with LHBs, allowing a .364 wOBA and .209 ISO to LHBs since 2015. Springer will also have platoon edge and comes with exceptional form (36% HHR over the L15, four HRs in his L10 games). He’ll be the leadoff hitter for a deep Astros’ offense in Rogers Centre.

We also get reduced price tags for Michael Brantley (CLE) and Adam Jones (BAL), who are $3,900 and $2,900 respectively on DK. Like most of his teammates, Jones doesn’t have the production to show for it lately, but the HHR is positive (26.3% over the L15). Brantley gives you access to a Cleveland offense that has the highest IRT in the slate. It’s a smaller sample (23 balls in play), but Brantley’s hard contact data looks way better of late (39% HHR over the L15).

On FD, we’ll have to get a little more creative in the OF with the targets above having appropriate price tags. On that site, Max Kepler (MIN) with the platoon edge for just $2,700 is a strong cash game target that fits the slate. Brian Goodwin (WSH) ($2,700 leadoff hitter for the Nats vs. Foltynewicz) Matt Kemp (ATL) and Seth Smith (BAL) (also in play on DK) are other targets that are hovering in the $2,700-$2,900 range. If you need to dip lower, Kike Hernandez (LAD) is $2,300 with the platoon edge (significant for his value) though the matchup is of the boom or bust variety (Robbie Ray).

Stacks

Tier One

1) Houston Astros

2) Cleveland Indians

3) Washington Nationals

4) Minnesota Twins

5) Seattle Mariners

It’s difficult where to draw the line on the tiers as there is a little separation from the Astros to the Indians and then to the next three, but all close enough you can justify them in one tier. The Astros are the cream of the crop as a road team against a weak lefty in a good park. The challenge with Houston is they’re largely expensive. You can usually work down the lineup for a little salary relief and contrarian ownership which on a slate with lots of expensive SP is a fine way to go. Cleveland is a slightly more affordable top tier stack while the Mariners and Twins are likely the best combination of price tag and ownership from the first tier.

Contrarian Stack:

Baltimore Orioles – They’ve been horrific of late but they’re in a good park for RH power, in warm conditions, and facing one of the worst bullpens in the league. They profile poorly against Berrios but if they can get the youngster out early there is big upside against the bad pen AND their pricing fits the slate very well.

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