Welcome to July 9 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 9 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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July 9 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:48 Starting Pitcher
11:34 First Base
14:34 Second Base
16:42 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
July 9 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
It’s an interesting main slate Sunday, especially on DK where there are a plethora of different ways to build. Let’s start with the top pitching options on the slate. Yu Darvish (TEX), David Price (BOS), and Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) all rank similarly. All three possess high K upside but come with some run prevention risk.
Our model slightly prefers Darvish as he has a higher win probability than Price (-185 to -113) and a lower IRTA than Tanaka (4.1 to 4.3). He’s legitimately in the cash game conversation on FanDuel where are all three are priced similarly, but he’s an unnecessary cash game spend on DK. Darvish has had a somewhat disappointing season as the K rate has dropped off. It’s a neutral matchup against the Angels, but the heat in Texas, already a prime hitter’s park, does bring some play into risk.
While Price lags a touch behind Darvish in our projections, you can easily make a case for him as the top pitcher. Price has struck out 16 batters over his last two starts. Fastball velocities have been strong in three straight outings, leading to his highest two SwStr rates the past two starts: 14.2% and 16.1%. Price faces a strikeout prone Rays team in Tampa Bay, putting him in the friendliest park environment of the top three pitchers.
If you use our advanced pitcher stats tool, you’ll see a large positive delta for Tanaka over his last three starts in both K percentage and velocity. And really dating back five straight starts Tanaka has been missing a lot of bats, posting K percentages of 29.6, 19.2, 33.3, 45.5, and 29.6. The Brewers have the fourth highest K percentage against RHP, but also bring plenty of power into Yankee Stadium on a hot day.
On DK, it’s possible to pair Price and Tanaka together with loose hitter pricing. However, there are still appealing expensive bats in more comfortable situations than some of the values.
If you do decide to spend more on bats, the two values we’re most interested in square off against one another in Philadelphia: Trevor Cahill (SD) and Jerad Eickhoff (PHI). There’s some minor health risk with both pitchers. Cahill pitched well in his first start back from the DL last time out, but was pulled after facing just 18 batters (4.1 IP). Eickhoff is making his first start back from the DL (June 20, back). He faced 18 batters and completed 5 innings in his rehab start. Cahill has turned back the clock with an impressive season. The 2.96 ERA is supported by a gaudy combination of a 28.8 K% and 62.3 GB%. However, a combination of wildness and expected regression in those skill stats must be taken into account. The Phillies are 28th in wRC+ against RHP and have the sixth highest K rate in that split.
Eickhoff is a bit scarier as he’s been shaky all season, and the drop from an average 20.6 K percentage to below average 18.8 mark is notable. This is about matchup. The Padres are 27th in wRC+ against RHP with the highest K rate.
There’s enough risk with all of our top three starters that you could pivot to Chris Archer (TB) in tournaments, but the combination of price and matchup make him a poor value in our projections.
A couple of tourney options in poor environments but need to be considered in GPP due to huge strides made in K percentage are Jimmy Nelson (MIL) and Brad Peacock (HOU).
Steven Matz (NYM) has been an enigma. The lack of swing and misses is concerting. However, some luck, a high GB rate, and stellar Hard-Soft percentages in his last two outings have led to four quality starts in five outings, including back to back starts of 7 IP without a run allowed.
Over on FD it makes sense to get access to a top catcher. Gary Sanchez (NYY) may be out of reach for cash games, but that’s fine given how well Jimmy Nelson has pitched. There’s also an easy pivot and better value in Evan Gattis (HOU) who has the platoon edge in Toronto, a good park for right-handed power. Happ’s peripherals are strong, but he has had some issues keeping the ball in the park and consistently gives up a high Hard% year in and out.
Gattis is attainable on DK but priced more appropriately. It’s not difficult to save some money on the site depending on catcher rest days and lineup spots. If Ryan Hanigan (COL) and Welington Castillo (BAL) are in the lineup, they’ll be our preferred targets. Hanigan is an easy way to get access to a Rockies team with a slate high 6.4 IRT at home.
Jose Abreu (CHW) is our top rated first baseman and a potential spend on both sites in cash games, but as is usually the case, easier to play on DK. This isn’t all about Coors. Kyle Freeland is a LHP with a 5.00 xFIP. He doesn’t miss bats and will walk guys. His main asset is keeping the ball on the ground, but his environment could offset that by leading to a high HR/FB%.
Mark Reynolds (COL) also holds the platoon edge in Coors and will save you some money if you can’t get up to Abreu. Reynolds has posted a .226 ISO this season, and ZiPS expects that to continue.
The non-Coors options in the Top 5 are the ever scorching Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Eric Thames (MIL). Freeman plays in mid-80s degree weather against Joe Ross, a wide splits pitcher who has allowed a .362 wOBA and .175 ISO to LHBs. Thames gets the advantage of the short porch in RF in Yankee Stadium. Tanaka has pitched better recently, but when he goes wrong, it’s usually giving up the long ball.
A trio of cheaper options are tournament viable: Wil Myers (SD) (big positive park shift, nice power/speed combo), Lucas Duda (NYM) (Lynn has wide splits, hot weather, Duda has a .231 ISO against RHP since 2015), and Kennys Vargas (MIN) (decent pop against Ubaldo Jimenez who has mostly been a trainwreck this season).
DJ LeMahieu (COL) is the chalk option at the position, and he’s particularly a strong play on FD where it’s tougher to get Colorado exposure.
LeMahieu is priced a bit more appropriately on DK, leaving several other viable options. Our projections are likely too high on Jonathan Villar (MIL), but he makes for a nice tournament play given his power/speed combination and road leadoff spot in Yankee Stadium. Brian Dozier (MIN) should see an increase in power as the season presses on but is hitting more ground balls than we’d like to see.
The cheaper plays are Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) (high positive 15-day delta in Hard%) and Carlos Asuaje (SD) (Eickhoff has allowed a .356 wOBA to LHBs for his career).
Nolan Arenado (COL) has a huge edge over the rest of the 3B at the position and is a great spend if you can get there. However, the position is deep, and especially on FD you’ll look to save money here.
On FD, we’re continuing to buy low on Manny Machado (BAL), who may be on the start of a tear. It’s only a matter of time before the .229 BABIP normalizes. Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Miguel Sano (MIN) are slightly more expensive tournament plays.
On DK, Machado is a fine value, but you’ve also got Coors exposure in Todd Frazier (CHW) (positive 15-day hard% delta) sitting a couple hundred dollars cheaper. For a full thousand dollars cheaper than Machado, you can drop to Josh Donaldson (TOR). It’s tough to tell if Donaldson is fully healthy as he’s striking out at a much higher clip than in recent seasons. However, this is just a phenomenal buy low price tag even if you’ve tempered expectations moving forward.
It’s pretty boring but on both sites you’re likely going with Trevor Story (COL) or Tim Anderson (CHW) facing southpaws in Colorado.
On FD, Carlos Correa (HOU) will go too low owned for tournaments but isn’t that much more expensive than the Coors options. Elvis Andrus (TEX) is the cash play if you need to save a few hundred dollars. Andrus has seen his ISo climb for the fourth straight season and is running at a much higher rate than any of the previous three years.
Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) is the best drop down in price on DK.
There’s not as much need to spend on the elite bats with Aaron Judge (NYY), Charlie Blackmon (COL), and Bryce Harper (WAS) all lacking the platoon edge. All our tournament viable, but we’ve actually got George Springer (HOU) (positive 10.1 delta in Hard% over the last 15 days) as the top projected outfielder.
The loose pricing on DK creates a slew of OF value targets around $4,000 dollars. Some of our favorites are Avisail Garcia (CHW) and Jay Bruce (NYM). Garcia is a post hype sleeper who looks to have finally broken out thanks to a big uptick in ISO for the second straight season. He’s still not hitting as many fly balls as we’d like to see, but the Hard% is at a career high. Bruce has a high 30.3 15-day Hard%, and will face Lance Lynn (.358 wOBA and .199 ISO allowed to LHBs). His teammate Michael Conforto (NYM) is an excellent value if he’s in the lineup; he was activated off of the DL yesterday.
Other options there include Jose Bautista (TOR) and Seth Smith/Adam Jones (BAL). Over on FD where we’re targeting values around $3k, Jones is more of a primary value. Jones has a positive delta in Hard% and will face Kyle Gibson with a 5.1 IRT.
Our favorite value, though, at the same tag as Jones and in the same game is Max Kepler (MIN). Ubaldo Jimenez has a 6.64 ERA. While his 22.4 HR/FB rate has been unlucky, the worst Hard-Soft% of his career is also partially responsible. Kepler has solid pop, particularly against RHP (.212 ISO).
On both sites Ryan Raburn (WAS) is a punt option as we’re expecting him to hit second with the platoon edge against Newcomb.
1) Colorado Rockies
2) Chicago White Sox
It’s pretty easy to grab pieces to both of these offenses in cash games on both sites, although on DK you have more power to actually mini-stack. The tournament conversation around Coors is always tough, as these teams rate a clear rung ahead everyone else but will be chalky.
3) Minnesota Twins
4) Houston Astros
5) Texas Rangers
6) Baltimore Orioles
7) Milwaukee Brewers
8) New York Yankees
It’s a wide second tier of stacks. Ownership will likely get pretty spread out on the non-Coors stacks, but the Astros are particularly intriguing. Sometimes people spend up on Coors and then look to value for their supplementary stacks, which means a high upside but expensive Astros stack could come with reduced ownership.