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June 10 MLB DFS: Betts On It
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Welcome to June 10 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 10 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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June 10 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:35 Early Slate Thoughts
10:49 Starting Pitcher
19:14 Catcher
21:29 First Base
25:09 Second Base
28:40 Third Base
31:59 Shortstop
34:30 Outfield                                                                                                                                                              38:20 Stacks

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  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

June 10 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

The main decision on this slate is whether or not to pay up for Chris Sale (BOS). Particularly on DK, Sale is now priced appropriately for his gaudy production this season, especially when you consider he’s been more human lately. The whiffs (at least 9 Ks in 10 of 12 starts) are an incredible base amount of points to start with. However, Sale is at home in a good park for RHBs facing a Detroit team that gets very right-handed (rolled out all 9 last night). So while Sale’s skills and Ks make him an acceptable spend in a vacuum, he’s not a must play on this slate.

Aside from Sale’s contextual factors and price preventing him from being a must play, we have some high upside mid-tier options at our disposal. Both Luis Severino (NYY) and Alex Wood (LAD) are enjoying breakout years and are actually heavier favorites than Sale (albeit slightly and all three are heavy favorites). Severino has a 27.5 K% and will face a heavily right-handed Orioles lineup that may be without Manny Machado. Wood has some longevity concerns returning from the DL (SC Joint). However, he’s been an absolute stud when healthy (2.40 xFIP, 31.3 K%, 68.7 GB rate) thanks in part to a big increase in velocity (92.9 mph, last season at 90.6). He is the heaviest favorite on the slate (-230) with the lowest IRTA by over half a run (3.2). On DK, it’s viable to roll both of these guys out together, and either one can be used as your single SP on FD if unable to pay up for Sale.

On DK, one of the reasons we’re okay getting away from Sale is the difficulty in finding a cheaper second SP to pair him with. If you do want his high K floor, try pairing him with either Zack Godley (ARI) or Josh Tomlin (CLE). Godley is the higher risk/reward option. We’ve got him projected a full K higher than Tomlin as he faces a strikeout prone Brewers team. Godley has also displayed an impressive 64.2 GB% to go with a solid K/BB ratio. However, he’s in a more hostile environment at home in Arizona. Tomlin is at home in Cleveland facing a White Sox team that generally lacks punt against RHP, boasting the fourth worst wRC+ in that split on the season.

Marcus Stroman (TOR) is viable on DK where he’s a better overall option than Godley or Tomlin and not priced as expensively as Severino/Wood. He possesses less K upside but projects similarly from a run prevention standpoint.

If taking a stab at a real cheap SP, Junior Guerra (MIL) has some K upside against an Arizona team that has the ninth highest K% against RHP. Of course the downside is enormous.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY) and Yasmani Grandal (LAD) represent the top projected scorers at the catcher position, and the gap is huge (over two Fantasy points on both sites). Grandal has the better price tag on both sites, so if you’re paying up for a catcher he’s our lean. The Dodgers have an IRT of nearly five runs as they take on Asher Wojciechowski, who’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (54% FB rate at AAA this season, 56.4% FB rate through four appearances in the majors this season) with a ZiPS projected ERA of 5.68 for the ROS.

Russell Martin (TOR) is a viable cash game alternative on FD where he’s cheap ($2.4k).

If Jeff Mathis (ARI) is in the lineup, he’s a viable punt on DK.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) is the top projected scorer at first base. The challenge with Goldy is simply a full price tag, and as a result in cash games we’d rather save money at this position.

On FD, Eric Thames (MIL) remains underpriced ($3.3k) and he’ll have the platoon edge in Chase Field. Zack Godley has pitched very well this season, but the power upside for Thames in a plus hitting environment makes him a strong value.

On DK, we’re pursuing cheap targets like Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) and Kendrys Morales (TOR). Morales’ HHR over the L15 is sitting at 35.5%. Gonzalez’s power has tailed off as his FB rate has tailed off, but there’s also some correction here (2.4% HR/FB rate – 15% for his career) and we’re hoping that a matchup against an extreme fly ball pitcher helps him create more loft.

Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) is a viable upside pivot on both sites. He’ll have the platoon edge against David Holmberg, who doesn’t miss bats (13% K rate) and the run prevention is due for major regression (2.50 ERA/5.64 xFIP).

The matchup is awful (Chris Sale), but Miguel Cabrera (DET) has a punt price on FD ($2.5k) and he’s in Fenway Park. He’s viable in tournaments.

Second Base

Jason Kipnis (CLE) is our top projected scorer at second base in a L/L matchup. David Holmberg is awful, so using Kipnis in tournaments is still a viable strategy in a condensed slate.

We’re trying to save money at this position, which means we’re willing to go back to the well with Logan Forsythe (LAD). He hasn’t been hitting leadoff lately, but it looks like he’ll be your best source of salary relief on DK where he’s just $3k. On FD, Forsythe is 3b eligible so we’ll need to find another cheap source on that site.

Ian Kinsler (BOS) is leading off in Fenway Park. The Tigers are a right handed heavy team, so having the platoon edge in this park for this offense is great. Unfortunately, they’ll have the platoon edge against one of the best pitchers in baseball (Chris Sale), so we’re looking for steep discounts. On FD, Kinsler is just $2.5k like most of his teammates. Given how bad the position is, we’re willing to use Kinsler in cash games.

If we get Daniel Descalso (ARI) or Brandon Drury (ARI) in decent lineup spots, they’re fine sources of salary relief. We’d prefer picking on Junior Guerra over Chris Sale, but if these two find themselves buried in the bottom of the Dbacks offense it’ll be tough to justify them in cash games.

Third Base

Jake Lamb (ARI) is our top projected scorer at third base. Junio Guerra has pitched over his head a bit. Last season, he had a 2.81 ERA with a 4.29 xFIP and this season the ERA is at 1.83 but the xFIP is sitting at 4.94. It’s backed up by BABIPs of .250 and .218 respectively. Vegas is expecting some regression, giving the Dbacks an IRT of 5.2. Lamb’s $4.1k price tag on FD is attractive, but $5.6k on DK is too steep in cash games.

On DK, Josh Donaldson (TOR) and Manny Machado (BAL) (if he’s back in the lineup – out the L2 games) are better point per dollar targets given their cheaper price tags. Donaldson is $600 more expensive, but if you could get there that would be our lean. He doesn’t have any health concerns, has the better matchup against Ariel Miranda (.211 ISO allowed to RHBs in his short career – he’s faced 406 RHBs) and the production here vs. LHP is wild (.410 wOBA, .278 ISO vs. LHP since 2015).

If looking for cheaper targets, Logan Forsythe (LAD) is third base eligible on both sites and he’s cheap. We’ll have to see where he lands in the lineup though (he hasn’t been hitting leadoff after coming back from the DL). If Forsythe doesn’t land a decent lineup spot and you need to save more money, Nicholas Castellanos (DET) could be the one Tiger you end up using on FD if not paying up for Lamb. He hits second vs. LHP and he’s minimum priced, but as we’ve already mentioned, the matchup is awful.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor (CLE) tops our SS position for a CLE team with the highest IRT on the slate. Over his brief career David Holmberg has yielded a .386 wOBA and .273 ISO to RHBs. The issue with Lindor on both sites is cost, but he is a bit more affordable on FD.

Given Lindor’s hefty tag, you may want to drop down to Corey Seager (LAD) who has a lower median projection but offers more power upside. Seager has a positive 15-day Hard% delta and a .397 wOBA and .216 ISO against RHP since 2015. Asher Wojciechowski is extremely fly ball risky.

While Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) will have a poor lineup spot, he looks like the best source of cap relief at the position on most sites, although that cap relief is much more valuable on DK than on FD. Tulowitzki will hold the platoon edge against Ariel Miranda, who has allowed 1.58 HR/9 over his career (1.81 to RHBs).

Tournament pivots include Xander Bogaerts (BOS) and Chris Owings (ARI) with high IRTs in good hitter’s park, but Didi Gregorius (NYY) also fits that mold and is a way to be extremely contrarian at the position.

Outfield

Mookie Betts (BOS) projects as our top hitter in the OF. Justin Verlander has the following xFIPs over his L5 starts – 5.45, 3.07, 6.95, 5.50 and 6.07. His K rate is down from 28% last season to 21% this season, and now he faces a Red Sox offense that’s very contact oriented in Fenway Park. Betts is the leadoff hitter for an offense with an IRT of 5.2 runs, and his price tag remains depressed around the industry.

David Peralta (ARI) is a viable alternative to Betts on both sites or potentially a complement over on DK. Peralta will have the platoon edge throughout the entire game, as the Brewers have an all right handed bullpen. Peralta has generated a .375 wOBA and .198 ISO  vs. RHP since 2015.

Gregor Blanco (ARI) gives you access to the Dbacks offense at a cheaper price tag than Peralta on both sites, though he’s certainly not as skilled of a hitter. Arizona is tied for the second highest IRT in this slate (5.2 runs), so we’d like to have a piece of this offense in cash games.

Andrew Benintendi (BOS) (on FD) and Jose Bautista (TOR) (on DK) are excellent site specific values at under the average cost of a hitter prices. Bautista, in particular, shouldn’t be $3.4k on DK. Bautista hits RHP better, but he’s still a very good hitter vs. LHP (.364 wOBA, .216 ISO vs. southpaws since 2014) which isn’t a surprise. Benintendi hit fifth last night for the Red Sox. Even if he hit there once again tonight, the $2.8k price tag on FD will keep him in play.

On FD, some of the Yankees OF (Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner) along with J.D. Martinez (DET) (way too cheap given the park upgrade and own power upside, albeit in a terrible matchup) are viable alternatives as well. If we get Chris Taylor (LAD) in the leadoff spot, he’d emerge as a good value on FD where he’s $3k.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Arizona Diamondbacks

2) New York Yankees

We hit on the Diamondbacks quite a bit in the positional analysis, but as an added note, the mostly right-handed Brewers bullpen gives the Arizona LHBs some additional upside.

The Yankees make for a nice tournament stack. Their high cost and team total mixed in with a few other teams at the same 5.2 mark (and CLE up at 5.6) may result in ownership that doesn’t reflect the upside of this stack. The Yankees are second in wRC+ against RHP, fifth in ISO, and seventh in SBs. Tillman is always fun to pick on because he’s homer prone, but the ugly peripherals early on especially make that the case (5.53 xFIP).

Tier Two

3) Los Angeles Dodgers

4) Cleveland Indians

5) Milwaukee Brewers

The Dodgers have an interesting matchup against the Reds. We’ve seen the good and bad of Asher Wojciechowski through two MLB starts. Wojciechowski will miss bats and has shown a bunch of improvement in control. However, his extreme fly ball tendencies lead to a ton of power upside for opponents. Similarly the Cincinnati bullpen is high risk/reward depending what relievers you get matchup up with.