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June 11 MLB DFS: Wind-Impacted Archery
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Welcome to June 11 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 11 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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June 11 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:35 Early Slate Thoughts
10:49 Starting Pitcher
19:14 Catcher
21:29 First Base
25:09 Second Base
28:40 Third Base
31:59 Shortstop
34:30 Outfield                                                                                                                                                              38:20 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

June 11 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

On a slate filled with warm weather and elevated totals, the ability to miss bats is even more important. Chris Archer (TB) and Carlos Carrasco (CLE) represent the top two projected starters. Both get strong matchups. Archer faces an Athletics’ offense that ranks 13th in wRC+ against RHP but has struck out at the third highest clip against RHP (24.8 percent). Carrasco gets a softer matchup in terms of skill as the White Sox rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP but strike out slightly less frequently (23.8 percent). The big advantage for Archer is pitching in controlled conditions in a dome. Most of the games around the east coast and midwest are in the 80s and 90s in temperature, while Archer won’t have to deal with the extreme heat and the way the ball flies as a result. This is largely the difference in implied total (3.4 vs. 3.8) which favors Archer. Archer is more expensive on both sites, but not particularly difficult to afford. The pricing gap is larger on FanDuel if you’re looking to play price points and diversify among the two sites.

Pairing the two is a challenge due to opportunity cost with hitting. It’s viable if you’re simply uncomfortable with our next starter, but we believe dropping down provides the biggest upside. As a result, we’re looking for a mid-tier value starter on DraftKings to pair with one of the aces above. Aaron Nola (PHI) looks like our go-to option once again as his projection benefits from a traditionally RH heavy Cardinals’ lineup. Nola has limited RHBs to a .291 wOBA and .131 ISO while striking out nearly 27 percent of batters faced in his career. Meanwhile, LHBs have posted a .322 wOAB, .147 ISO and the K Rate drops under 19 percent. The Cardinals typically max out with three LHBs (Fowler, Carpenter, Wong) and occasionally can get up to four (Garcia in over Diaz). It’s a nice reprieve from the typical LH heavy lineups opponents roll out.

The other options to consider on this slate are relatively slim. Adam Wainwright (STL) opposes Nola and gets the softer matchup with the Phillies (25th in wRC+ against RHP) but he’s fairly priced at $8,100. Ivan Nova (PIT) is just $6,500. He never pops for our projections due to a lack of strikeout upside but the absence of Giancarlo Stanton could provide a better matchup for run prevention (would also hurt the strikeout projection). Jake Arrieta (CHC) has strikeout upside but the conditions are very favorable for hitting against a very deep Rockies’ offense. Any exposure to Arrieta is best suited in GPPs. David Paulino (HOU) brings strikeouts to the table but the Angels so rarely strikeout and the price has bumped up from the minimum levels. He’s viable in GPPs but we still prefer the upside and projection of Nola over him.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY), to the surprise of no one, is our clear-cut top catcher. The Yankees face another struggling BAL RHP, this time in the form of Kevin Gausman (5.86 ERA/ 5.18 FIP/ 5.08 xFIP). The similarities continue as we have another great day for hitting weather in New York: 90 degree temperatures and the wind blowing out to dead center at over 10 mph. Gausman, like Tillman, has issues with same-handed batters, allowing a .369 wOBA and .200 ISO to them since 2015. Sanchez is expensive, but on a site like DK where you have a bit more flexibility, it’s possible to pay up for him in cash games.

On both sites, the value drop down is Willson Contreras (CHC). We’re expecting a gaudy Cubs team total against Antonio Senzatela (ZiPS/Steamer projecting around a 5 ERA ROS) in Wrigley with 90 degree temperatures and the wind blowing out to LC at over 15 mph. If Contreras gets the day off, Miguel Montero (CHC) slides in at an even lower cost.

Tournament pivots with power are Evan Gattis/Brian McCann (HOU) and Travis d’Arnaud (NYM). If you’re in need of a pure punt on DK, a couple of catchers that will benefit from hot weather and wind are Caleb Joseph (BAL) and Cameron Rupp (PHI).

First Base

We’d love to pay up for Anthony Rizzo (CHC) on both sites. While the Cubs offense is struggling, Rizzo is mostly in form (GB rate a touch high and BABIP should rise) and will hold the platoon edge against Senzatela. Rizzo outpaces all first basemen on DK in our projections by nearly two points and nearly three on DK. Even if you pay up for Archer or Carrasco on this slate, it’s not difficult to fit in Rizzo.

The next in line options are in the great hitting weather/park in Yankee Stadium: Chris Davis (BAL) and Matt Holliday (NYY). Davis is the better value due to cost. The Yankees are throwing Chad Green, a RHP expected to be homer prone.

If you decide to save some money at 1B, Albert Pujols (LAA) is too cheap, especially on FD. Pujols will hit third on the road (elite lineup spot) with a big positive park shift. Opposing pitcher David Paulino can miss bats but still projects for a 4-plus ERA and could lead to an early bullpen game for the Astros.

Of course there are tournament options galore given the slew of high team totals and elite hitting weather across the map. Guys we’re looking at who benefit from one or two of those things are Trey Mancini (BAL), Edwin Encarnacion (CLE), Matt Carpenter (STL), and Matt Adams (ATL).

Second Base

If you’re willing to trust the Cubs offense (29th in FanGraphs Hard% over the last two weeks), cash game roster construction is pretty easy. The team’s recent failings has led to good price tags and both Ian Happ (CHC) and Ben Zobrist (CHC) (OF only on FD) will hold the platoon edge and good lineup spots. We’re currently projecting the team total here at 6.5.

At some point you have to diversify off some Cubs bats. We don’t suggest making it second base, but if you do, Jose Altuve (HOU) (+5.2 delta in 15-day Hard%) is a good expensive spend on FD.

On DK, Wilmer Flores (NYM) (3B only on FD) is the next best value. Flores has a strong 34.9 15-day Hard%. More importantly, he boasts astounding numbers against LHP since 2015 (244 PAs): .424 wOBA, .306 ISO, 7.8 HR%. It’s hot in Atlanta, and this is a big positive park shift.

Tournament pivots are Cesar Hernandez (PHI) (great hitting weather, ridiculous 40% 15-day Hard%) and Brandon Phillips (ATL) (secondary cash value on FD with Atlanta’s team total approaching 5).

Third Base

Ideally you’d pay up for Kris Bryant (CHC) (.270 ISO) here. Bryant’s heavy fly ball tendencies (49.1 FB%) should put him in a good spot to take advantage of the wind/heat. There are good options to save money here however, which you may need to do if spending on both elite SPs on DK or on FD because pricing is tighter/the four players to a team limit has an impact.

On both sites, Wilmer Flores (NYM) (see 2B section) and Luis Valbuena (LAA) are solid sources of savings. Valbuena gets a positive park shift and will hold the platoon edge against Paulino. However, it must be pointed out how horrific of a season he’s had to date (.255 wOBA and .108 ISO). The combination of a falling Hard% and rising GB rate is a concern.

Jake Arrieta has looked a lot better recently: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-pitcher-trends-advanced/ , but Nolan Arenado (COL) is still tournament viable due to the weather. Alex Bregman (HOU) has a large positive delta in his Hard% over his last 15-days (+9.0), and is a good way to get access to a 5.3 IRT for the Astros.

Shortstop

While we’re presented with a couple of stud shortstops on teams with IRTs greater than 5 in Carlos Correa (HOU) (35.9 15-day Hard%) and Francisco Lindor (CLE) (hot with the wind blowing out again), this does seem to be one of the better positions to save a little bit of money.

On both sites, Addison Russell (CHC) sticks out as the best value despite a poor lineup spot (seventh or so at home). Russell’s 15-day Hard% of 10.5 is one we’d normally like to avoid in the midst of a disappointing season, but both ZiPS and Steamer are basically expecting him to revert to last year’s form rest of season. It’s just a really easy way to  get Cubs exposure and save money at a scarcer position.

If you’re going cheap on DK and pivoting off Russell, you’ll likely stick in the same hitting environment and pay a bit more for Trevor Story‘s (COL) power upside or fully punt the position with JJ Hardy (BAL).

On FD, Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) serves as a straight line pivot off of Russell.

Outfield 

Aaron Judge (NYY) blows away the rest of the outfield options from a raw projection standpoint. He’s not terribly difficult to fit in on both sites depending how much you spend on your top SP. Judge has hit the ball hard all season long, and that hasn’t changed recently (39.6 15-day Hard%, and that doesn’t count yesterday’s game that involved the hardest hit ball of the StatCast era). Judge’s power potential is monstrous given today’s context.

Judge is your spend if opting for raw total projection. From a value perspective we get a handful of overlapping values across each site, which can be rare in the outfield. One name you probably didn’t expect to see here a couple of weeks ago is Mallex Smith (TB). The speedster has stepped into the leadoff role for the Rays. Smith has made quality contact and already boasts six stolen bases in 10 games.

After Smith, more Cubbies are on display: Ben Zobrist (CHC) and Jason Heyward (CHC). They are both cost effective ways to squeeze in more Cubs, but it’s also a position where it’s easy to diversify. In fact, you could look to the other side of this game with Carlos Gonzalez (COL). He’s affordable on both sites, but the streaky hitter has just a 9.3 Hard% over his last 15 days.

Two one off options with power on both sites are Mark Trumbo (BAL) (.356 wOBA and .229 ISO against RHP since 2015) and Josh Reddick (HOU) (.355, .177). Reddick is at home against RHP Jesse Chavez, who has been hit hard over his last three starts. It’s a concern as Chavez has a history of fatiguing as the season presses on.

With so many high team totals and good hitting environments, the list of potential tournament outfielders is high. It makes sense to round out teams with correlation plays as parts of stacks or some potentially low owned one-offs. Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) could fly under the radar, although he did hit a grand slam yesterday in his first game back off the DL.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Chicago Cubs

The Cubs projected lineup has the second lowest hard hit rate over the last 15 days and the fifth lowest hard hit rate on the season on this slate, but we expect another hefty implied total with high temperatures and the wind blowing out against contact oriented Antonio Senzatela. This is a combination of pitcher that has out-performed his baselines and his peripherals all season along with an offense that has wildly under-performed. The Cubs are also among the cheapest stacks on both sites which makes them a difficult fade in cash games, but a viable fade or underweight in GPPs.  

Tier Two

2) Houston Astros

3) New York Yankees

4) Baltimore Orioles

5) Colorado Rockies

The second tier is generally where we find the offenses that have performed the best this season. This is the tier we prefer in tournaments as we expect ownership on the Cubs to inflate with a high implied total. There is plenty of great offense on the slate so you just want to be on the right side of ownership in tournaments. The Yankees power upside throughout the lineup gives plenty of ways to stack against Gausman and a broken bullpen that had to cover 6 ⅓ innings last night. The Rockies may go a bit under-owned with hefty price tags but the same appealing conditions the Cubs’ offense is benefiting from in Wrigley. The Astros suffer a similar fate to the Rockies where they’re simply very expensive. They don’t get the benefit of the ninth inning though if the stack goes off.