Welcome to June 13 MLB DFS action. You’ll find Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for June 13 MLB DFS along with LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using the customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
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June 13 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
Trevor Bauer (CLE) and Gerrit Cole (HOU) top the projections by a wide margin for Wednesday’s main slate. Cole has the more difficult matchup as the Athletics rank seventh in wRC+ against RHP this season with a slightly above league average K Rate. Also working against Cole is a park shift that suppresses strikeouts severely. Houston is a plus environment for strikeouts with a small foul territory while Oakland’s large foul territory makes it more difficult to record them. Bauer, meanwhile, has one of the friendliest matchups possible against the RH heavy White Sox lineup that ranks 18th in wRC+ against RHP and has one of the higher K Rates (24.4 percent) in the league. Both have similar implied run totals against (3.6 for Bauer and 3.5 for Cole) while Bauer is a slightly larger favorite (-185 vs. -170), and the two project similarly for strikeouts as well. The result is a similar projection for the two with Bauer coming at a much cheaper price tag. Thus, Bauer is our preferred target if spending all the way up and with such a strong projection overall (24-25 DK, 43-44 FD) our inclination is to do just that on both sites.
Kenta Maeda (LAD), Nick Pivetta (PHI), Cole Hamels (TEX), Luke Weaver (STL), and Jose Berrios (MIN) form a deep second tier of starters at a wide range of price tags. The matchups in this tier are pretty favorable and should draw attention but the price tags are variant.
Maeda is the most expensive option and he’s coming off a short DL stint that we don’t expect to impact his ability to work deep but it’s always a concern with the Dodgers. Maeda faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 25th in wRC+ against RHP with the league’s second highest K Rate (26.1 percent). They don’t project quite as strikeout friendly with Adrian Beltre back but a 3.3 implied total against and a softer price tag makes him a cash viable alternative to the expensive studs. Our projections prefer the studs.
Nick Pivetta and Luke Weaver are the affordable SP2s on DraftKings. They come with elite matchups as Pivetta faces the Rockies who rank dead last in wRC+ against RHP with an above average K Rate (23.3 percent) and Weaver faces the Padres who rank 26th with the third highest K Rate (25.8 percent). The mid-$7,000s price tag for both starters is quite compelling. Pivetta has outpitched Weaver this season and is a touch cheaper but has a higher implied total against (3.7 vs. 3.5) and doesn’t usually work quite as deep. We have a slight preference for Pivetta’s strikeout upside but either option is a fine pairing for a high-end SP on DK. On FanDuel, Weaver is MUCH cheaper than Pivetta and makes for a superior tournament target and even a viable cash game pivot off of Bauer/Cole.
Generally, the seven pitchers above are the best candidates for GPPs on this slate. Bauer, Cole, Maeda, Pivetta, and Weaver are the names we like the most of that group. Jose Berrios can compete with some of these IRTAs (3.7) and he’ll have the benefit of facing a Tigers’ lineup that’s mostly RH, but he’s priced very appropriately. Berrios also has to deal with the most difficult umpire for pitchers in the entire slate, which isn’t exactly what you want to hear at his price tags.
The lone cheap pitcher that our projections have some mild interest in is Tyler Anderson (COL) who has shown a decent K Rate bump this year and when outside of Coors Field is a more viable target. The Phillies’ offense is better against LHP with Rhys Hoskins back but they’re an underwhelming 25th in wRC+ against LHP this season.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) tops the projections at catcher followed by Salvador Perez (KC), Tucker Barnhart (CIN), J.T. Realmuto (MIA), and Buster Posey (SF) at a suddenly deep catcher position. All of these options have favorable lineup spots and outside of the MIA-SF matchup come with plus hitting environments.
Sanchez is clearly the most skilled hitter of the group but comes with an appropriate price tag at $4,100. He’s a fine target in all formats.
Our optimals will prefer a bit more salary relief at the position which is where Tucker Barnhart comes into play. Barnhart is just $3,200 on DraftKings and has been hitting second of late for a team with a 4.8 implied total. Barnhart will face Jason Hammel who has allowed a .329 wOBA and .174 ISO to LHBs since the start of last season. Barnhart isn’t a great hitter but the lineup spot plus the price tag makes him a compelling value against a bad opposing starter and bad bullpen.
Salvador Perez, Yadier Molina (STL), and Buster Posey serve as intermediaries between Barnhart’s cheap tag and Sanchez’s $4,000+ tag. Molina has the best matchup of the group against Eric Lauer who has allowed a ridiculous .397 wOBA and .205 ISO to RHBs as a big leaguer. Molina doesn’t have as strong of a hitting baseline as Perez or Posey but is a bit cheaper making him a solid alternative to Barnhart. Perez/Posey are slightly more expensive and while they both have more challenging matchups they’re not poor matchups. Posey has the platoon edge against Caleb Smith while Perez gets a nice park environment with upper 80s temperatures in Kansas City against Tyler Mahle and a poor Reds bullpen.
Joey Votto (CIN) is the clear cut top option at the first base position. Votto faces Jason Hammel who we’ve noted is vulnerable to LH power. Votto is amazing. He’s posted a .419 wOBA and .228 ISO against RHP since the start of 2016 and he’s walked (16.4 percent) more than he’s struck out (13 percent). We rarely get great opportunities to roster him because of a division with a good pitching staff, a high price tag, and generally weak supporting cast. This slate suits him perfectly though as he’s outpacing all the other first basemen by a wide margin.
Edwin Encarnacion (CLE), Jose Martinez (STL), and Carlos Santana (PHI) are the next highest projected targets at first base. Encarnacion and Martinez are priced aggressively as either on-par or ahead of Votto and we view a big projected gap there. These two are better tournament targets. Santana is a viable pivot on DraftKings where he’s cheap ($3,800). Santana will hit from his worse side (.328 wOBA, .149 ISO against LHP since 2016) so we’d strongly prefer getting up to Votto on DraftKings.
Greg Bird (NYY) remains affordable at $3,400 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings. The matchup with Erick Fedde appears largely neutral. Fedde projects as a slightly above league average starter but has to pitch in Yankee Stadium with the short porch.
Yonder Alonso (CLE) remains affordable on DraftKings at $3,600. The matchup with Dylan Covey used to be one of the best in the league but Covey’s pitched with increased velocity this year and we now view him as just an above average matchup. Alonso has a bit more team upside than Santana as Cleveland has a 4.8 implied total.
Brian Dozier (MIN) is the highest projected second basemen by a wide margin on this main slate. Dozier has historically hit LHP very well (.395 wOBA, .284 ISO since 2016) and will face Matt Boyd who has allowed a .332 wOBA and .174 ISO to RHBs since the start of last season. The Twins have a solid 4.6 implied total and Dozier is priced affordably on DraftKings at $4,100. He’s a very clear priority on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, Dozier is also our top value but the conversation is a bit more nuanced as he’s more appropriately priced at $4,100. If you’re paying up for a high end SP and Votto at 1B it may be difficult to afford Dozier as well. There are compelling alternatives with Whit Merrifield (KC), Jedd Gyorko (STL), and Daniel Murphy (WAS) all priced around the $3,000 mark. Gyorko is the cheapest of the bunch and has that elite matchup with Eric Lauer. The only knock on Gyorko is he typically doesn’t get a great lineup spot. Merrifield has the good lineup spot but Tyler Mahle has been good against RHBs (.277 wOBA, .094 ISO allowed since 2017). Murphy is underpriced for his long-term baselines but is just back after a long layoff and may have some “rust” to work through. The matchup with Sonny Gray is fine but the Yankees bullpen behind him is one to worry about. All three of these are viable pivots off Dozier in cash on FanDuel but we’d be most excited if Gyorko landed in a good lineup spot.
In tournaments, Scooter Gennett (CIN) and Cesar Hernandez (PHI) are a bit overpriced on FanDuel but make sense as part of stacks we’re high on. ON DraftKings, Yoan Moncada (CHW) is a nice leverage play off Trevor Bauer who should carry ownership. Moncada is cheap on DraftKings which makes him a fine value in a vacuum but a particularly interesting leverage play on this slate.
Jose Ramirez (CLE) tops all third basemen by a decent margin. Ramirez gets the matchup with the resurgent Dylan Covey that is more difficult to decipher given Covey’s form this season. One thing that isn’t difficult to decipher is Ramirez’s hefty price tag which makes him difficult to get up to in cash games and even in tournaments. He still makes sense in tournaments on Cleveland stacks but is in general a difficult fit on this slate.
Mike Moustakas (KC) and Nolan Arenado (COL) are the next highest projected third basemen. Moustakas is simply not priced like Arenado which shoots him up the list of preferred targets. Moustakas gets nice weather in KC and faces Tyler Mahle who has really struggled with LHBs (.407 wOBA, .260 ISO allowed since 2017). Moustakas is affordable on DraftKings ($4,100) but that same price tag on FanDuel is a more difficult fit.
Miguel Sano (MIN) is a bit cheaper on both sites and faces fly ball oriented Matt Boyd who has allowed a .332 wOBA and .174 ISO to RHBs since the start of last season. Sano has smashed LHP in his career, posting a .362 wOBA and .262 ISO since the start of 2016. The knock on Sano is he’s been out of sorts this season and he’s been bumped down the lineup. He’s not so aggressively cheap that you feel great about deploying him.
One option on FanDuel where things are priced aggressively is to consider a full punt with Maikel Franco (PHI) who has hit LHP for pop in his career (.200 ISO since 2016) but often gets a poor lineup spot.
Francisco Lindor (CLE) and Trea Turner (WAS) are at the top of the shortstop projections. Lindor is the preferred target if money wasn’t an option but with Turner priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel, he enters the cash game conversation. Turner’s been struggling of late and the matchup with Gray and the Yankees’ bullpen behind him isn’t ideal. He’s not a must by any means but the alternatives aren’t great.
At the same price tag as Turner you have inferior hitters like Chris Taylor (LAD) and Eduardo Escobar (MIN) who is only SS eligible on DraftKings. Carlos Correa (HOU) is also similarly priced but in a meh matchup in Oakland against a GB oriented RHP.
The other option is to opt for pure salary relief with Scott Kingery (PHI). He is priced as a pure punt on FanDuel where he’s most valuable. Tyler Anderson has allowed a .346 wOBA and .213 ISO to RHBs since 2017 but getting a big park upgrade in Philadelphia. Kingery doesn’t project as a great hitter but he’s cheap. Alcides Escobar (KC) is also priced as a punt on DraftKings and may land in a solid lineup spot for a team with a high-4s implied total.
In tournaments, Trevor Story (COL) is a viable low-owned pivot in a good park for power against a RHP who has been vulnerable to the long ball. Didi Gregorius (NYY) is also intriguing after a two homer game on Tuesday night. Gregorius has been a far better hitter at home where Yankee Stadium inflates his power wildly.
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY), Bryce Harper (WAS), Aaron Judge (NYY), and Tommy Pham (STL) top the outfield projections. Pham has the best matchup and price tag of the bunch making him the most accessible of the bunch for cash game considerations. The trio of outfielders in Yankee Stadium are better bets for tournaments on this slate.
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) is the next highest projected outfielder and he’s much cheaper than the entire group above. Hoskins has destroyed LHP in his career (.395 wOBA and .287 ISO with a 22.9 BB Rate) and we’ve noted Tyler Anderson‘s struggles against RHBs. At just $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel, Hoskins is a building block in cash games for us on both sites.
The next best value outfielder in the mid tier is Scott Schebler (CIN) who has been hitting leadoff for the Reds of late and gets that great matchup with Jason Hammel. Schebler has compiled a .323 wOBA and .215 ISO against RHP since the start of 2016. Schebler isn’t exactly cheap on either site but he’s in a very nice spot against Hammel and a poor Royals’ bullpen.
Marcell Ozuna (STL) and Tommy Pham (STL) have really nice price tags on DraftKings that we’d like to exploit. Ozuna owns a .357 wOBA and .190 ISO against LHP while Pham has posted a .386 wOBA and .237 ISO against LHP since the start of 2016. The prices are particularly compelling on DraftKings and while they both may be on the fringe of optimals we’re very comfortable with either in all formats.
On FanDuel, Brett Gardner (NYY) has a nice price tag at $3,000 for a Yankees’ offense that should have one of the higher implied totals on the slate. FanDuel’s emphasis on R/RBI for their scoring inflates players projections on teams with strong implied totals and Gardner is a cheap way to get access.
For more salary relief, Aaron Altherr (PHI) is an intriguing option against Tyler Anderson‘s poor splits against LHP. Altherr has posted a .340 wOBA and .213 ISO against LHP since 2016 and he’s very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
On DraftKings, Robbie Grossman (MIN) is an intriguing punt play if in the lineup against LHP. When he’s played of late he’s earned good lineup spots.
On FanDuel, where pricing may get tight if you opt for the high-end SP someone like Dustin Fowler (OAK) could have value as a punt play ($2,300) even in a tough matchup against Gerrit Cole.
1) New York Yankees
2) Cincinnati Reds
3) Cleveland Indians
4) St. Louis Cardinals
The top tier of stacks is very congested.
We expect the Yankees will carry some popularity on DraftKings where the presence of two affordable starters makes them easier to fit on this slate. They should come with lower ownership on FanDuel. The matchup with Erick Fedde is neutral and the Nationals bullpen behind him is solid but it’s a bit warmer than usual in NY with a helping wind for the long ball.
The Reds are our favorite contrarian stack on the slate as we expect they’ll come in with the lowest ownership of this group. The park downgrade to Kansas City is mitigated a bit by warm weather. Jason Hammel is vulnerable to power from both the left and right hand side and the bullpen behind him is a mess. The Reds aren’t priced down which we believe will keep ownership in check.
Cleveland’s ownership may take a hit from recent disappointments in even softer matchups. Dylan Covey‘s recent success should also keep things down a bit. It’s not a bad bounceback spot in a matchup that we thought was a great one just a few weeks back.
The Cardinals are the most challenging stack on the slate as they’ll likely carry ownership because of Eric Lauer’s struggles and with warm temperatures in St. Louis they’re certainly deserving. The concern is that some of their key parts (Jose Martinez in particular) are overpriced and you may be able to get similarly priced stacks that rate a bit better at lower ownership.
5) Washington Nationals
6) Philadelphia Phillies
7) Minnesota Twins
This second tier should be largely contrarian. The Nationals get a big park upgrade and their offense is incredibly deep with Daniel Murphy back. The Yankees elite bullpen looms and Sonny Gray is by no means a gas-can, but the low ownership is really intriguing for large field GPPs.
The Phillies project well for us and are resulting in natural stacks on FanDuel because of their cheap price tags. We’re not sure if the field will agree with our projections and thus have cash game carryover into GPPs. The Rockies bullpen is pretty decimated without Ottavino and Mike Dunn which is pushing some of the projections up for the Phillies. We’d prefer to manage the ownership on FanDuel cash games as to not have a natural stack and then play those natural stacks more in 3-max or single entry tournaments.
The Twins seem like a higher upside/lower probability and possibly lower ownership version of the Phillies against. Matt Boyd isn’t great but his hefty fly ball rate can lead to higher variance outings against your offense when the ball doesn’t leave the yard.
8) Colorado Rockies
9) Los Angeles Dodgers
10) Houston Astros
The Rockies and Astros are ok large field GPP stacks. The Astros are facing an extreme GB righty but backed by a bad bullpen. If the stack hits it will be via a bunch of singles and then eventually getting things going in the bullpen. The good news is the Astros have the depth to do it with Correa back and they have upside in stolen bases even if they’re not racking up extra base hits. The Rockies are a really low probability option that is only interesting because when Pivetta goes wrong it’s home runs in bunches.