Welcome to June 14 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 14 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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June 14 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:39 Starting Pitcher
13:08 First Base
17:23 Second Base
19:43 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
June 14 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Wednesday brings us another slate with difficult starting pitching decisions. At the very top is Corey Kluber (CLE) who faces an above average Dodgers’ offense (ninth in wRC+ against RHP) getting a park and league shift to help them. Kluber’s priced appropriately on both sites but represents the safest source of production. On DraftKings, where you need two starting pitchers, he or Michael Pineda (NYY) are almost options by default. Pineda gets a huge upgrade in park environment, specifically for his problem with home runs, but the Angels ability to limit strikeouts keeps the projection in check. Pineda is priced more affordably on FanDuel but Kluber’s projection still out-paces him. On both sites, we prefer to choose one of these two as your cash game anchor.
The high upside and cheap starting pitcher option on this slate is Francisco Liriano (TOR). Liriano has generated fewer chases this season and his walk rate has climbed as a result. The swinging strike rate and strikeouts are still there but he’s not generating soft contact and the results have been treacherous. The Rays struggle against LHP (20th in wRC+) and strike out frequently (26.7 percent). Liriano’s very cheap on both sites ($5,800 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel) and carries some of the highest upside relative to price tag on the slate. Matt Shoemaker (LAA) gets a boom-or-bust matchup with the Yankees league leading wRC+ and ISO against RHP. Shoemaker’s been great at home but his reliance on fly balls makes this matchup very volatile. The price tag on DraftKings ($6,300) makes Shoemaker a viable secondary SP target. Mike Leake (STL) has been the opposite of Liriano this season. He doesn’t walk batters, doesn’t strike out many, and has benefited from incredibly good fortune (2.70 ERA vs. 3.68 xFIP), but he’s consistently worked deep into games (six or more innings in 11 of 12 starts) and he’s churned out quality starts (nine of 12). The Brewers bring their own volatility to the matchup with lots of power and strikeouts but Leake gets them at home with a park downgrade. These are the primary targets to pair with Kluber or Pineda on DraftKings in cash games and in tournaments.
Brian McCann (HOU) and Alex Avila (DET) represent the top projected scorers at the catcher position. They’ll have the platoon edge in excellent matchups against pitchers that are power prone. In McCann’s case, he’ll have a matchup against Andrew Cashner, who we’re expecting to regress heavily. The challenge here is appropriate price tags on both of these catchers around the industry, which makes them poor point per dollar targets. We like them in tournaments.
Cameron Rupp (PHI) is our top value at the position on both sites given his punt prices. Rupp hit eight last night vs. a LHP (he’s currently hitting sixth in our projections), and even if he ends up hitting there, the platoon edge in this matchup makes him a desirable cash game option. In his last 188 PAs vs. LHP, Rupp has generated a .267 ISO.
Russell Martin (TOR) is another cheap catcher to consider on FD, where he’s just $2,300.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) carries the best raw projection at first base. He has a strong matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who’s been awful this season (14% K rate, 32.8% GB rate). Goldy is expensive on both sites, but he’s an excellent tournament play.
Anthony Rizzo (CHC) isn’t very far behind from Goldy from a projection standpoint, and he’s almost $1k cheaper than the latter on DK. Rizzo has a positive delta in our HHR over the L15 days, and that doesn’t include the massive HR that he hit last night. He’s viable in all formats.
Tommy Joseph (PHI) is one of our best values at the position in this slate. Joseph will have the platoon edge against Brian Johnson. Johnson has been fly ball prone throughout his minor league career, and it has carried over to the majors (44% FB rate through three starts). In those three starts, Johnson has a 3.44 ERA but his FIP and xFIP are over a full run higher. Joseph doesn’t have a huge sample size vs. LHP, but he’s been great against them in 154 PAs (.370 wOBA, .297 ISO).
On DK, Miguel Cabrera (DET) is just $3,400. Cabrera has traded some fly balls for more line drives this season, which likely explains his sudden power dip. He also has a negative delta in our batted ball tool over the L15. Still, ZiPS is projecting 15 more HRs for Cabrera the ROS, and that price tag is simply too cheap for this caliber of a hitter. He’s very much in play in cash games on that site.
Eric Thames (MIL) (great price tag on FD), Matt Carpenter (STL) ($3,800 on DK – it will be hot in St. Louis once again) and Mitch Moreland (BOS) are other names to consider in tournaments. In Thames’ and Carpenter’s case, their price tags on the aforementioned sites puts them in the cash game conversation as well.
Brian Dozier (MIN) is our top projected scorer at second base, followed by Jose Altuve (HOU) and Robinson Cano (SEA). From a pricing perspective, Cano sticks out immediately on both sites. Cano’s price tag has dipped to $4,000 on DK and $3,100 despite posting a healthy 30% HHR over the L15. The matchup vs. Ervin Santana isn’t very threatening either, as Santana is a major regression candidate (2.20 ERA/4.84 xFIP). Altuve isn’t very expensive on FD either ($3,600), and he’s also in a favorable matchup against another big regression candidate (Andrew Cashner). We’re pursuing this tier of second basemen in this slate in all formats.
If for some reason you needed to save more money, Dustin Pedroia (BOS) is a decent pivot on DK. He’s hitting the ball much better as of late and takes on Jeremy Hellickson. Ben Zobrist (CHC) is just $3,100 on DK. It’ll be hot in New York once again (mid 70s temps). On FD, teammate Ian Happ (CHC) is sub $3k and deserves tournament consideration.
Manny Machado (BAL) is once again $4,100 on DK and sub $4,000 on FD. He won’t have the platoon edge, but that’s not a significant hit to his value due to his neutral splits. He’ll take on a matchup against Miguel Gonzalez, whose K rate has dipped under 14% this season and his xFIP is very ugly (5.43). Machado is an excellent cash game target and likely a lock on DK.
Miguel Sano (MIN) represents a great alternative in all formats. Sano’s HHR is finally in a mini slump (negative delta over the L15), but he’s in a great matchup against Sam Gaviglio (doesn’t miss bats) and the Mariners below average bullpen. He’s $500 more expensive than Machado on DK, where we prefer him in tournaments.
You might not need to take this route in cash games, but Maikel Franco (PHI) has a punt price once again on DK and we like him for the same reasons we like Joseph and Rupp (cheap, with the platoon edge).
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) and Carlos Correa (HOU) are the top projected scorers in this slate and they’re also our best point per dollar targets at the position. Bogaerts cheaper than Correa on both sites, particularly on FD where he’s $600 cheaper. The gap in pricing has us leaning towards the Bogaerts route on FD, but on DK the gap is less meaningful and that’s where Correa enters the cash game conversation.
Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) is our next best value at the position on DK, and he usually hits in the bottom of the lineup. We prefer him in tournaments.
Corey Seager (LAD) and Francisco Lindor (CLE) are better hitters than Xander Bogaerts, but they’re priced very efficiently on FD. On DK, Lindor is $4,000 and that’s where you can use him in tournaments. Seager has a very high HHR over the L15, but his matchup against Corey Kluber is a poor one and he’s priced around full on both sites.
Mookie Betts (BOS) is our top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. Betts is priced fully on DK, but it’s not challenging to reach for him in cash games since you’re likely taking a stab at a cheap SP2 in this slate. Jeremy Hellickson represents a great matchup for Betts and the Red Sox. Hellickson is striking out 10.7% of hitters this season, and the 4.50 ERA/5.85 xFIP/.238 BABIP combo tells us that he should be worse moving forward. Teammate Andrew Benintendi (BOS) is still priced affordably on FD ($3,000), where he’s viable as a pivot or a complement to Betts in all formats.
After the Red Sox, you can fill out the rest of your OF with strong point per dollar values like Josh Reddick (HOU) (top DK value in this slate – he sat out last night as he deals with a minor concussion issue), Jose Bautista (TOR) (remains too cheap on DK – $3,900),the Orioles OF (Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones and Seth Smith are good values on both sites) and Aaron Altherr (PHI) (on FD – follows the theme of the other Phillies we like in this slate).
George Springer (HOU) is expensive, but he’s viable in tournaments against Andrew Cashner. As we mentioned earlier, Cashner continues to be a major regression candidate (3.17 ERA/5.46 xFIP). Springer’s HHR is sitting at 40% over the L15, and that’s not accounting for the HR he hit last night.
1) Houston Astros
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Baltimore Orioles
4) Minnesota Twins
5) Chicago Cubs
6) Seattle Mariners
The Astros lead the way in our stack rankings against the perma-tilt inducer Andrew Cashner. Given the Astros high price tags and Cashner’s ability to limit hard aerial contact from RHBs (58 percent GB Rate, 29.6 percent hard hit rate allowed), we’d prefer to work down the stack rankings. The Orioles are the most affordable stack on both sites and make the most sense against Miguel Gonzalez‘s propensity for hard aerial contact (33.5 hard hit rate, 40.7 fly ball rate). The Minnesota-Seattle game remains one of the warmer temperature games on the slate and the two awful bullpens continue to leave hefty totals. This is a more expensive situation to attack that is our next favorite pivot after the Orioles.
The Phillies serve as a viable cheap contrarian stack against Brian Johnson‘s historical struggles against RHBs (.343 wOBA, .201 ISO, 33 percent hard hit rate).