Welcome to June 14 MLB DFS action. You’ll find Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for June 14 MLB DFS along with LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using the customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
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June 14 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
On a short slate, David Price (BOS) carries the top overall projection and a very attainable price tag on DK. After just two starts with a 20-plus K% over his first seven, Price has exceeded a 25% K rate in five of six starts. He gets a positive park shift pitching in Seattle, although the Mariners have been a tough matchup in DFS against LHP thus far this season (fourth in wRC+, sub-20% K rate).
Next in line are two pitchers squaring off against one another in Blake Snell (TB) and Domingo German (NYY). As awesome as Snell has pitched this season (3.31 FIP, 27.4 K%), his surface ERA is a bit misleading. More importantly, he has to travel to Yankee Stadium to face the loaded Yankee RHBs. There’s definitely high end upside (clear the other pitchers by 5-plus DK points) worthy of being used in tournaments, but we’d prefer to take more value in cash games, especially with Snell carrying by far the largest price tag. On FD, we’re still on Price over Snell given the higher projection and the lower price tag, but the pricing gap is much closer, making Snell more appealing there in GPPs of the two sites.
That value on DK as an SP2 comes from German who is both the largest favorite (-158) and has the lowest IRTA (3.8). While the Rays current splits indicate a subpar matchup for opposing SPs, we have no hitters in this lineup with a baseline wOBA split of .320 or more. We’re also projecting the lineup to have just 3 LHBs in it, which is particularly good for German who has struck out nearly 30% of RHBs faced this season.
The main competition for German on DK is Brandon McCarthy (ATL) who is similarly priced and has an elite matchup with the Padres, who rank 26th in wRC+ against RHP with a high 25.8 K%. McCarthy has had a pretty average season from a skills perspective, flashing a below average K rate but above average BB and GB rates, although not straying too far from the league average in any single category. McCarthy is a better value in a vacuum than German on FD if looking for a cheap GPP play there.
The only other pitcher we’d consider in tournaments is Tyson Ross (SD), who has the ability to put together a tantalizing combination of K and GB rates. He’s had five 30-plus K% outings this season, and while the GB rate overall hasn’t been as high as in his prime, Ross has four outings right around a 60% GB rate.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) represents the top projected scorer and it’s not particularly close. Sanchez is underpriced for his long term skills. We have a .355 wOBA and .258 ISO baselines for Sanchez with the platoon edge and he’s just $4,000. His recent form is wretched (4.2% HHR over the L15) and the matchup against Blake Snell, who’s a good pitcher, isn’t a good one. Even with all that said, Sanchez is the most exciting option to roster in this slate.
The options behind Sanchez aren’t exciting. Wilson Ramos (TB) is in Yankee Stadium facing a pitcher in Domingo German that misses bats but allows a good deal of hard hit contact (22% hard minus soft hit rate allowed this season). Ultimately, Ramos is simply overpriced but he’s a fine alternative.
John Ryan Murphy (ARI) will have the platoon edge against Steven Matz, who’s allowed a .357 wOBA and .230 ISO to RHBs since the start of last season. It’s a strong matchup and Murphy has been racking in Arizona albeit in a small sample (.824 OPS in 111 PAs). He’s priced correctly but this is probably where the list of viable alternatives ends at the position.
The only other catcher in this slate with legitimate power upside is Mike Zunino (SEA). His .223 ISO baseline vs. LHP is the second best behind Sanchez at the position but he has to deal with a difficult matchup (David Price) and he doesn’t get to hit in good lineup spots. Zunino is only in play in tournaments.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) and Freddie Freeman (ATL) form the top tier of first basemen in this slate. They’re both at home with the platoon edge and their baselines in that split are monstrous (.405 wOBA, .258 ISO). They’re also in good recent form, though Goldy has been otherworldly of late, checking into his matchup against Steven Matz with a slate high 47.4% HHR over the L15. Tyson Ross is a more challenging matchup as he tends to keep the ball in the ground. Of the two, we’ll side with Goldschmidt in cash games while Freeman makes sense as a lower owned pivot in tournaments.
The position doesn’t have intriguing cash game targets in the mid-tier or cheap price tags. Jake Bauers (TB) is in Yankee Stadium with the platoon edge, and the wind is blowing out to RF. It’s a strong hitting environment but the Rays have a 3.8 IRT. We prefer Mitch Moreland (BOS) on the road albeit in a difficult hitting environment. Moreland has a matchup against Felix Hernandez, who’s allowed a .363 wOBA and .218 ISO to LHBs since 2017. Bauers and Moreland are overpriced but they’re squarely in the tournament conversation.
Eric Hosmer (SD) has generated a 33% HHR over the L15 and will have the platoon edge against Brandon McCarthy on the road in Atlanta, which is a park boost for this Padres’ offense. We think Hosmer is an option to consider in tournaments in a condensed slate.
Ozzie Albies (ATL) carries the top projection at second base. The matchup against Tyson Ross isn’t ideal for power but it is for stolen bases as Ross has been one of the easier pitchers to run on. Ross has a neutral rSB grade this season but throughout his career he’s amassed a -7 rSB. Albies is very expensive and while he makes sense as a tournament option in a short slate, in cash games you might be forced into looking at a cheaper target.
Albies is certainly a more exciting option than Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM), but ultimately Cabrera is $1,500 cheaper on FD and $1,000 cheaper on DK. The Mets have certainly been pitiful, so you don’t feel great when you have to consider them in cash games, but in a short slate that’s exactly what you’ll have to do. Thankfully, the Mets get a soft matchup against Matt Koch, who’s only striking out 13.4% of hitters and is serving up plenty of power. Cabrera gets good lineup spots in the Mets lineup and he’s on the road. He’s generated a .187 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season.
Gleyber Torres (NYY) is a viable tournament target despite being overpriced. Torres has been remarkable, but he’s hitting ninth in the Yankees lineup and he’s now priced for the way he’s hit. Second base isn’t an exciting position tonight and Torres is capable of hitting for power, which puts him in play. Maybe Joey Wendle (TB) can be considered because he’s a LHB in Yankee Stadium but he’s simply not a very good hitter.
Todd Frazier (NYM) is the top projected scorer in the hot corner. Frazier leads the entire position in HHR over the L15 (40%) and tonight he draws a matchup against Matt Koch, who’s allowed a 1.80 HR/9 this season. Frazier is a big part of our optimals in this slate. Part of that has to do with his own power upside and a soft matchup, but most of it has to do with how ugly the position behind him is.
Rafael Devers (BOS) and Matt Duffy (TB) are viable options if you’re in need of salary relief on DK. Devers will have the platoon edge on the road against Felix Hernandez, who’s no longer an elite starting pitcher. Devers has the biggest ISO baseline (.202 vs. RHP) at the position. Duffy is in Yankee Stadium, and even though he’s not a LHB, that’s a much better environment for RHBs than the Trop in Tampa Bay. He’s also a road leadoff hitter but his matchups against German and the Yankees bullpen are far from exciting.
Miguel Andujar (NYY) can be considered in tournaments as part of Yankees stacks but like Gleyber Torres, he’s also priced very appropriately given how he’s performed this season.
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) and Didi Gregorius (NYY) are the “elite” shortstops in this slate and they don’t have the same baselines as some of the true elite options at the position. Didi has a matchup against a tough LHP, so he’s probably outside of consideration for us altogether. Bogaerts is simply overpriced, but he can be used as part of Red Sox stacks given how ugly this position is tonight.
We’re going to save some money at the position with Nick Ahmed (ARI), who’s been hitting second vs. LHP. Ahmed isn’t a very good hitter, but he can hit for power with the platoon edge. Ahmed has generated a .254 ISO vs. LHP since the start of last season albeit in a limited sample (126 PAs). As you can see, we don’t think he’s quite that powerful against southpaws as our power baseline for him is a more believable .162 ISO.
Ketel Marte (ARI) has been hitting fifth of late and checks into this matchup against Matz with a 36% HHR over the L15, which is the highest mark at the position. He’s a fine alternative to Ahmed in all formats as long as he’s hitting fifth.
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) is the top projected scorer on the hitting side in this slate regardless of position. Blake Snell is a good pitcher, but he’s a LHP and Stanton demolishes southpaws. Stanton has generated a .473 wOBA and a ridiculous .427 ISO against LHP since the start of last season. He’s also in Yankee Stadium, and he changed his stance to hit towards the short RF porch. Without many resources devoted to pitching tonight, Stanton has emerged as a key cog in our optimals.
Mookie Betts (BOS), Aaron Judge (NYY) and Andrew Benintendi (BOS) have outperformed Stanton this season and they’re the next in line projected scorers at the position. They’re fun tournament alternatives, especially if you believe Stanton carries the bulk of the ownership, but in cash games Stanton is the clear target with the cheapest price tag of the bunch. J.D. Martinez (BOS) can be included in that tournament conversation as well. He’s pricier than Stanton but quite frankly, that’s deserved. Martinez is enjoying his first half in a Red Sox uniform, generating a 172 wRC+.
Michael Conforto (NYM) is the other OF option that’s projecting as a priority in our optimals on both sites. He’s been ridiculously cold of late (3.8% HHR over the L15) but he’s probably the Mets’ best hitter at this point. He’s generated a .385 wOBA and .239 ISO VS. RHP since the start of last season and tonight he draws a very strong matchup against Matt Koch, who we love to pick on.
The rest of the cash game conversation comes down to what price tag fits best. Ender Inciarte (ATL), Brandon Nimmo (NYM), Aaron Hicks (NYY) and Jay Bruce (NYM) are acceptable salary relief targets as OF3s. If salary wasn’t an issue, we’d prefer getting up to one of the Red Sox OFs alongside Stanton and Conforto in cash games, but doing that will end up hurting your chances at getting up to an elite first baseman. It’s probably best to stick to this tier of salary relief targets in cash games instead.
1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) New York Mets
While we’re dividing the stacks into two tiers, the top five stacks are all clustered pretty tightly with lower overall stack scores than we’re going to see on a full slate.
The Yankees, despite arguably facing the most talented SP on the slate, are our top stack. As good as Snell has been this season, he is a fly ball oriented pitcher with a higher than usual Hard% receiving a big negative park shift in Yankee Stadium. With no SP really pulling away from the group, it’s smart to stack the expensive Yankee bats with their power upside in tournaments.
The Red Sox get a big boost in event upside with Mookie Betts‘ return to the lineup this week. They’ll face Felix Hernandez who has the lowest GB rate of his career, largest Hard% of his career, and nearly the lowest K rate of his career.
The Mets have clearly the least talented lineup of this group but Matt Koch is just so bad that they are able to compete in this tier. Koch now ranks 303rd out of 307 SPs with at least 100 balls in play in xwOBA.
4) Atlanta Braves
5) Arizona Diamondbacks
As much as it can pay off to be contrarian on such a small slate, there’s a steep drop off in team stack projection following these top two tiers, so we’d suggest not going elsewhere as far as full stacks are concerned.
Atlanta is interesting against an SP who can get wild when things are going poorly in Tyson Ross, who also inflates SB totals for the opposition.