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6/14 MLB DFS: Invest in Ortiz while on Sale

Photo of David Ortiz by Keith Allison by CC 2.0
6/14 MLB DFS: Invest in Ortiz while on Sale
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – June 14th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Glossary: See a term you’re unfamiliar with? Check out our glossary page. If there’s something you’d like to see added there, please email us at help@dailyroto.com. 

Weather: Two moderate concerns in terms of delays are in DET and PIT today. I think the threat is slightly higher in DET but I feel there is good chance of delays in both places after 3 PM (can not be completely ruled out before 3 PM but the chances are lower). Several locations have the threat of pop-up thunderstorms affecting games in NYC, BLT, STL, TEX and CHC. But much like we saw yesterday in TEX and CHC, there is little threat for a cancellation (well STL is a bit of a different story, see the notes) but delays are a small worry there.

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

Catcher

Top Plays:

Brian McCann (NYY) – McCann hasn’t sat out a game this week so there is a decent chance he’s unavailable on Sunday. If he is in the lineup, he’s our top play at the catcher position. As of this writing, Vegas hasn’t released a line on the Orioles-Yankees game but we fully expect it to have the highest total on the slate. The Yankees face rookie Mike Wright who has been homer prone (1.48 HR/9) in his first four starts at the big league level. ZiPS projection system isn’t optimistic on Wright, projecting a .336 wOBA and .152 ISO allowed to LHBs along with a 4.76 ERA rest of season. Lefties have hit him hard (32.4 percent hard hit rate, 2.53 HR/9) early on as he’s allowed a .372 wOBA to the first 45 LHBs he’s faced at the big league level. McCann has shown good power against RHP (.192 ISO since 2012) and Camden Yards is a good park for power. If in the lineup, he ranks inside our Top 45 hitters and is our top option at the position.

Evan Gattis (HOU)/Russell Martin (TOR) – Gattis and Martin rank a bit below McCann but are acceptable alternatives and more likely to find their way into the lineups. They both get the platoon advantage in good offensive environments. Gattis is a bit more volatile as the Astros lineup as a whole is boom-or-bust and without Jose Altuve they take a hit in expected support. He’s posted a .333 wOBA against LHP but an impressive .230 ISO since 2012. Roenis Elias is ground ball oriented but he’s been vulnerable to RHBs (.323 wOBA and 1.04 HR/9). Martin is a more well-rounded option and part of a better overall offense against LHP, but faces potentially a more difficult matchup. Eduardo Rodriguez has been dominant in his first three starts at the big league level and he’s missing a ton of bats. ZiPS thinks Rodriguez will be average against RHBs (.320 wOBA, .141 ISO projected) which suggests he’s wildly out-performing expectations so far. The Blue Jays are so good against LHP that I think Martin will earn strong opportunities. Martin has posted a .345 wOBA and .169 ISO against LHP since 2012. Gattis’ power pushes him up our model rankings a bit more, but I think the two are essentially interchangeable. I’m currently leaning to Martin as slightly ahead of Gattis for cash games.

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