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June 15 MLB DFS Late Slate: Mr. Anderson
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June 15 MLB DFS Late Slate: Mr. Anderson

00:40 Starting Pitchers
06:33 Catchers
07:45 First Base
09:54 Second Base
11:26 Shortstop
13:27 Third Base
15:33 Outfield
17:42 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks



June 15 MLB DFS Late Slate Pro Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Noah Syndergaard (NYM)

Tier Two

2) Corey Kluber (CLE)

Tier Three

3) Nate Karns (TB)

4) Chris Sale (CHW)

5) Marco Estrada (TOR)

6) Sonny Gray (OAK)

Tier Four

7) Collin McHugh (HOU)

8) Ian Kennedy (KC)

9) Anthony DeSclafani (CIN)

10) Steven Wright (BOS)

11) Drew Smyly (TB)

12) Adam Wainwright (STL)

The Pirates are a good offense (fifth in wRC+ against RHP) that gave Noah Syndergaard (NYM) a tough time in his last start. However, Syndergaard’s skills are too good to pass up (1.83 FIP, 31.5 K percentages), making him a core target for us across the industry. Corey Kluber (CLE) is too expensive to justify playing over Syndergaard in cash on DraftKings, but on FanDuel he offers a slight discount to Syndergaard. We still prefer Thor, but it’s at least a decision there as the Royals offense, due to all their injuries, has become much more susceptible against RHP.

If the right offensive punts end up in the right spots, Kluber may end up surprisingly affordable to pair with Syndergaard. It’s also entirely possible that a couple of the punts we’re eyeing up don’t end up in the lineup or in the right spots. In that scenario you’re going the value route. Our preferred option is Nate Karns (SEA). Karns offers plenty of K upside (23.5 K percentage), which should be amplified by the matchup (Rays have third highest K percentage against RHP). The issue with Karns is his wildness and short leash, which have him averaging just five and a half innings pitcher per start. In four of five starts he hasn’t worked past the fifth inning, including two straight starts he didn’t complete a fifth inning. As a result, you could dip down to someone like Collin McHugh (HOU) who we’d normally prefer in tournaments. Ignore the ERA, McHugh has been pitching really well lately, consistently striking out batters. Here are his K percentages over his last five starts: 31.6/20.8/24.2/40/29.6.

With the third and fourth tier starting pitchers all ranked pretty closely together, you can make justification for plenty of pitchers in tournaments and likely grab some lower ownerships. One guy we find interesting is Anthony DeSclafani (CIN) who was pretty sharp in his rehab starts. He didn’t pitch deep in those but is coming off a six inning performance in the bigs. There’s uncertainty here, and uncertainty can be something to target in tournaments.

Catcher Rankings

1) Russell Martin (TOR)

2) Alex Avila (CHW)

3) Evan Gattis (HOU)

4) Chris Iannetta (SEA)

5) Matt Wieters (BAL)

No catcher in our model ranks as a positive value. As a result, we’ll likely fill out this position last and use it as a source of cap relief to help fit in expensive starting pitching, which we’re emphasizing in cash games.

First Base Rankings

1) David Ortiz (BOS)

2) Joey Votto (CIN)

3) Chris Davis (BAL)

4) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

5) Jose Abreu (CHW)

David Ortiz (BOS) is the top option at the position as he leads the MLB in wRC+ with a 194 mark (well higher than anyone else) for an offense that leads the MLB in wRC+ against RHP. If you want to drop down, Joey Votto (CIN) rates as the better value in our model. Aside from being absolutely horrific versus LHBs for his career (.356 wOBA, .188 ISO), Bud Norris has fallen apart this year. Despite pitching some in relief, he’s seen a drop in K rate, rise in BB rate and has a 20.9 hard minus soft hit rate.

Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve (HOU)

2) Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

3) Matt Carpenter (STL)

4) Jason Kipnis (CLE)

5) Ian Kinsler (DET)

With the exception of Jason Kipnis (CLE) on DraftKings, none of the second base options rank as plus values in our model. Kipnis has a slight positive delta in our well-hit tool, and he’ll face Ian Kennedy who is extremely homer prone thanks to just a 35.2 GB rate and a HR/FB rate well above league average for the second consecutive season, despite pitching in favorable home parks. On FanDuel, the value options are even worse. We’re hoping a valuable punt emerges when lineups are released.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Carlos Correa (HOU)

3) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

4) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

5) Eduardo Nunez (MIN)

Ideally, Tim Anderson (CWS) continues to lead off for the White Sox. If so, he ranks just outside our top five shortstops but at nearly minimum pricing across the industry, he’d be a phenomenal value as the White Sox have an implied run total of around 5 at home against the Tigers (Pelfrey has a 5.40 FIP and 5.01 xFIP). If Anderson doesn’t lead off, the best value is on the opposite end of the spectrum as we view Manny Machado (BAL) underowned based on his skills and park environment (the specific matchup against a knuckleballer is tough to dissect).

Third Base Rankings

1) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

2) Todd Frazier (CHW)

3) Danny Valencia (OAK)

4) Trevor Plouffe (MIN)

5) Evan Longoria (TB)

Todd Frazier (CHW) has been ice cold (-0.6 delta in our well-hit rating tool), which brings up memories of another extended cold streak last season following a hot start. We’re willing to take a chance on FanDuel since the combination of pricing/matchup/park is so good. However, you could very well make an argument that he and Danny Valencia (OAK) (0.7 delta in our well-hit rating tool) should be flip flopped in our rankings on the basis of recent form. Valencia crushes LHP (.396 wOBA, .201 ISO since 2014) and is facing Derek Holland (5.39 xFIP). He’s an elite tournament option and cash viable if you end up in a spot (like on DraftKings) where you’re either paying up for Josh Donaldson (TOR) or down for Trevor Plouffe (MIN), both of whom seem fairly priced.

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Jose Bautista (TOR)

3) Mookie Betts (BOS)

4) Adam Eaton (CHW)

5) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

6) Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)

7) JD Martinez (DET)

8) Michael Saunders (TOR)

9) Adam Jones (BAL)

10) Melky Cabrera (CHW)

11) Khris Davis (OAK)

12) George Springer (HOU)

13) Gregory Polanco (PIT)

14) Odubel Herrera (PHI)

15) Matt Holliday (STL)

There’s value in the expensive outfielders (Mike Trout (LAA) and Jose Bautista (TOR)) on this slate, particularly on DraftKings. You don’t have to build around them, but depending on what you do at second SP and if you can punt with Tim Anderson at SS it may be easy to do so. Trout faces Tyler Duffey who has pitched very admirably but has a ZiPS projected ERA of 4.65. Bautista faces Jeremy Hellickson who is prone to power thanks to his consistently high hard hit rates and slight fly ball tilt. Outside of the top options, we’re primarily looking at sets of teammates: Melky Cabrera/Adam Eaton (CHW) (great lineup spots for a matchup at home against Mike Pelfrey), Hyn Soo Kim/Adam Jones (BAL) (Steven Wright has pitched great but these guys are easily underpriced based on skill sets, park, and an implied team total over 4 runs), and Khris Davis/Coco Crisp (OAK) (better values on DraftKings since park is take into account).

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Chicago White Sox

2) Boston Red Sox

Tier Two

3) Toronto Blue Jays

4) Oakland Athletics

Tier Three

5) Cincinnati Reds

6) Baltimore Orioles

7) Minnesota Twins

8) Los Angeles Angels

The White Sox are the chalk stack and one we’ll be forcing cash game exposure to. The Red Sox are always a fun tournament stack given their elite, deep lineup. However, top tier pitching and expensive tags may help to keep ownership down (and why you don’t need to force exposure in cash games).

The Orioles are a really interesting stack on DraftKings. Steven Wright has been pitching well, but there’s always some start to start uncertainty with knuckle ballers. More importantly, it’s a rare opportunity to stack an offense that carries loads of power potential while being able to afford the two clear-cut top starting pitching options on the slate (Syndergaard and Kluber).

MLB Daily Analysis

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