Daily Fantasy Rundown – June 15th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Numerous somewhat troubling games tonight weather-wise. Highly concerned in DET and CHC, lesser concerns in BLT, PIT, NYC and BOS (much lesser concerns in those 2), STL, TEX and even a strange concern in HOU (see details below).
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Yasmani Grandal (LAD) – Grandal gets a nice big park shift as the Dodgers head to Arlington to take on the Rangers. Grandal has compiled impressive numbers against RHP in recent years, posting a .355 wOBA and .182 ISO since 2012; and he typically garners a strong lineup spot. He’s hit fifth in two of the last three games he’s started and even if he shifts to sixth the impact in a deep lineup on the road isn’t as significant. The Dodgers rank first in wRC+ against RHP and possess a healthy team total approaching 4.5 runs. Grandal has one of the best platoon splits of all the catchers in action and he’s playing in arguably the best hitting environment. He’s a Top 50 hitter in our model and our top catcher option.
Additional catcher notes: After Grandal, the position is muddled. Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) is still too cheap for his skillset. He’s in a great hitting environment but has a below average matchup against Edinson Volquez (.309 wOBA, 0.76 HR/9 allowed to RHBs since 2012). Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) hasn’t started hitting LHP the way we’d hope (.268 wOBA, .133 ISO since 2012) but he’s garnered great lineup spots of late and Mark Buehrle is contact prone and in decline. Miguel Montero (CHC) often gets a favorable lineup spot against the fly ball prone Trevor Bauer. He has good power upside in the matchup but is a bit boom-or-bust. Wilin Rosario (COL) has the widest platoon split of all the catcher eligible players going on Monday (.424 wOBA, .302 ISO since 2012) but has an extremely difficult matchup against Dallas Keuchel. All three should garner strong lineup spots and come with investable price points but fall well below Grandal in our model. Lucroy is the option I’m most likely to drop down towards.
Miguel Cabrera (DET) – Cabrera is the second overall hitter in our model and the top rated first baseman. He’s facing the weakest starter on the slate who is backed up by one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball. Jon Moscot was posting weak peripherals (15.1 K Rate, 8.4 BB Rate, and 4.19 FIP) at AAA before his promotion and he’s struggled mightily in two starts at the big league level (10.6 K Rate, 10.6 BB Rate, and 5.92 FIP). ZiPS projection system calls for an ERA near 5.00 if he were to stay in the big leagues the rest of the season and the implied run totals for the Tigers tonight are approaching five runs. With Cabrera’s skill set, it’s easy to see why he rates so highly in our model. The challenge with Cabrera is opportunity cost. First base has a few elite values and Cabrera’s price reflects his greatness. With some weather concerns as well, Cabrera is more likely to find his way onto my rosters in tournaments than cash games.
David Ortiz (BOS) – We’ve been pounding the drum on Ortiz for much of the last month and he’s finally starting to reward those who have remained persistent investing at discounted price points. Ortiz is likely experiencing a decline in skill set. He’s 39 years old and he’s been dreadful against LHP this season while his overall production against fastballs is down as well. With that said, he continues to hit RHP at an elite clip (.397 wOBA, .259 ISO against RHP this season). With the price tag way down, we believe it’s wise to attack when Ortiz is facing below average RHP. He’ll face Williams Perez who has shown questionable skills against LHBs early on. Perez has allowed a .330 wOBA and 1.15 HR/9 to LHBs while allowing them to hit .270/.333/.419. Williams doesn’t possess an elite fastball (average 90.6 mph) and last year at AA he only whiffed 14.5 percent of the LHBs he faced. This is another plus matchup for Ortiz and it once again comes with a great price point. He’s our second rated first baseman in our model and a Top Five overall hitter for Monday’s slate.
Chris Davis (BAL) – Davis gets the benefit of facing Aaron Harang at home. Davis has posted a .376 wOBA and .278 ISO against RHP since 2012 and the price point is down a bit around the industry. Aaron Harang is fly ball prone (44.2 percent FB Rate to LHBs since 2012) and he struggles to miss bats (15.4 percent K Rate). It’s a great combination for Davis and he gets the benefit of facing him in Camden Yards which inflates home runs for LHBs approximately 14 percent above the league average. Davis ranks just outside our Top 10 hitters and is generally priced above Ortiz. This makes him more of a secondary value but one with immense home run upside this evening.
Additional first base notes: Anthony Rizzo (CHC), Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) and Albert Pujols (LAA) each rank within our Top 20 overall hitters. They come with expensive price points but are strong tournament plays, particularly as a part of stacks or mini-stacks. Eric Hosmer (KC) is an additional secondary value. He’s getting a severe park shift in his favor against a below average RHP.
Ian Kinsler (DET) – Kinsler isn’t much of a hitter against RHP (.313 wOBA, .138 ISO since 2012) but our expectations are so low for Jon Moscot that Kinsler ascends to the top of our second base rankings. There isn’t much to add here. Second base is a crowded position without much distinction in our model. It’s a position I’ll likely leave as my last spot to fill and evaluate the options based on available funds. If I have money to spend, Kinsler (ranks inside our Top 50 overall hitters) will represent my primary target.
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) – Pedroia has been solid against RHP (.328 wOBA, .113 ISO) in recent years but he’s generally been better at home against RHP than on the road (2015 – .384 vs. .324, 2014 – .302 vs. 331, 2013 – .341 vs. .302, 2012 – .348 vs. .324). For his career he owns a .359 wOBA at home against RHP and a .338 wOBA on the road. This makes a bit of sense as Boston inflates RH power a few percentage points above the league average and Pedroia is an extreme pull hitter (career 41.3 pull percent against RHP) so he can bang balls off the Green Monster. Williams Perez has handled RHBs well early on (.281 wOBA, 60 percent GB Rate) but he’s backed by the worst bullpen in the league and Pedroia leads off for a team with an implied run total approaching 4.6 runs.
Howie Kendrick/Justin Turner (LAD) – Kendrick hasn’t hit RHP well the last few seasons (.318 wOBA, .110 ISO since 2012) but he’s been better this year (.338/.148) and he gets the benefit of a nice park shift with a premier lineup spot (typically fourth). Yovani Gallardo isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s also not someone to shy away from. Turner has actually hit RHP very well in recent years (.377 wOBA, .145 ISO) but it’s very BABIP driven (.389) and the hard hit rate is pretty average (29.2 percent). Both Turner and Kendrick rank similarly in our model (Top 60-65 hitters overall) but Turner comes with a bit of a discount. If Turner gets a favorable lineup spot, he’ll earn my investment over Kendrick simply thanks to the discount.
Jimmy Paredes (BAL) – Paredes hasn’t historically hit RHP well (.310 wOBA, .128 ISO) but he’s crushed it this season (.371 wOBA, .186 ISO) thanks in large part to a .407 BABIP. I’m hesitant to pay full price for Paredes given the lack of history but the price has come down on most sites. On FanDuel he’s just $2,500 and even on DraftKings the price is approaching that of an average hitter. We’re optimistic on the Orioles matchup with Aaron Harang and Vegas has an implied run total approaching 4.7 runs for the Orioles. If you can get Paredes cheap it secures exposure to a highly projected offense with a premier lineup spot (second) at a thin position. This is a fine approach to take.
Additional second base notes: Jace Peterson (ATL) gets almost the same situation we detailed yesterday in the additional notes section. He gets the leadoff spot and the platoon advantage against Rick Porcello (.349 wOBA, 1.09 HR/9 allowed to LHBs). Peterson isn’t much of a hitter but it’s a good matchup and the price is fine. I wouldn’t expect him to replicate yesterday’s incredible performance but it’s once again a plus matchup. Robinson Cano (SEA) faces an average RHP which is historically a situation we’d attack with his price discounted, but Tim Hudson generates a lot of ground balls (52.5 percent to LHBs) and that is Cano’s primary problem right now.
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – Tulowizki ranks inside our Top 10 hitters despite the big downgrade in park. He’s been great against LHP, even outside of Coors (.375 wOBA, .237 ISO on the road against LHP since 2012), but faces a very good lefty in Dallas Keuchel. Once again, I don’t see much need to pay up for Tulowitzki in cash games but there is some tournament appeal here.
Additional shortstop notes: Shortstop is a difficult position to differentiate on Monday. Few shortstops hit in premier lineup spots and those that do are generally overpriced. Jung Ho Kang (PIT) has hit LHP well (.417 wOBA, .214 ISO) in his first big league season. It’s a small sample, but he comes with a good lineup spot (fifth). He’ll face a very talented Carlos Rodon but we’ll take our chances at a thin position. Wilmer Flores (NYM) hasn’t hit LHP at all at the big league level (.249 wOBA, .112 ISO) but in a small sample this season he’s been great (.412 wOBA, .294 ISO in 38 plate appearances) this season. He’ll also likely earn a solid lineup spot. Alcides Escobar (KC) isn’t a good hitter against RHP (.286 wOBA, .085 ISO) but he hits atop a Royals lineup getting a nice park shift. Erick Aybar (LAA) is a better version of Escobar. He’s posted a .316 wOBA and .124 ISO against LHP since 2012 and leads off for a good Angels’ offense against lefties. I think Kang has the highest combination of floor and upside in the group. Flores has the highest power ceiling and Aybar has a higher floor than Kang for production but very little ceiling.
Joey Gallo (TEX) – Gallo remains a bit underpriced around the industry, especially for his power potential against RHP. He’ll face Carlos Frias who has allowed a .377 wOBA to LHBs as a big leaguer. Frias has allowed an above average hard hit rate to LHBs (34.7 percent) and he really struggles to miss bats (11.8 percent K Rate vs. LHBs). Gallo’s contact issues are less of a concern in this matchup and the power potential makes him a very strong value play.
Manny Machado (BAL) – We’ve spent a large portion of the season gushing about Nolan Arenado‘s improvements as a hitter this year and perhaps it’s time we shed some light on Arenado’s American League counterpart: Manny Machado. Machado has dramatically tightened up his zone this year. After chasing 33 percent of pitches outside the zone last season he’s down to 24.1 percent (league average of 30.7 percent). The improved control of the strike zone has resulted in more walks (8.3 percent) and power (.197 ISO) thanks to a career best 32.8 percent hard hit rate. He’s shown neutral splits (.361 wOBA vs. LHP, .356 wOBA vs. RHP) and he’s leading off in a favorable matchup against Aaron Harang. The price is fair around the industry, but the matchup is above average.
Additional third base notes: Mike Moustakas (KC) is really cheap on FanDuel and a viable value alternative if in search of salary relief. On other sites where he’s priced competitively with Machado and Gallo, he takes a backseat. On DraftKings, Chris Davis (BAL) comes with third base eligibility. He’s an elite play at third base. David Freese (LAA) is a fine secondary value given his history of success against LHP and a favorable matchup with Robbie Ray. I like him better in tournaments as part of an Angels’ mini-stack with Pujols and Trout.
Mike Trout (LAA) – Trout is always among the top options in the outfield but on Monday he really separates himself from the other top outfield plays. He faces a below average LHP and the Angels offense is a bit better against LHP. Robbie Ray has allowed a .380 wOBA and 1.30 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012 while Trout has compiled a .394 wOBA and .226 ISO against lefties. He’s our top overall hitter in our model and the gap between Trout and Cabrera (number two) is equivalent to the difference between Cabrera and our #11 ranked hitter Chris Davis. If you can afford a big bat in the outfield, Trout is a tremendous selection.
Joc Pederson (LAD) – Pederson cracks our Top 20 overall hitters and his baseline in our models are below the performance he’s posted early this season. Joc has posted a ridiculous .275 ISO and solid .384 wOBA against RHP this season. He hits leadoff for the best offense in baseball against RHP and when they get a road matchup, you can almost lock in five plate appearances.
Tigers Outfielders – Jon Moscot is the weakest pitcher on the board and all the Tigers outfielders hit RHP fairly well. Yoenis Cespedes is the best (.339 wOBA, .196 ISO) followed by J.D. Martinez (.336 wOBA, .179 ISO) and then Anthony Gose (.307 wOBA, .109 ISO) isn’t nearly the same hitter but gets a premier lineup spot and comes at a much cheaper entry point. Cespedes and Martinez rank inside our Top 20 hitters while Gose cracks our Top 40. If the weather holds off, the Tigers outfield will represent the most direct way to get exposure to their offense which has the highest total on the board.
Michael Cuddyer (NYM) – Cuddyer has always hit LHP well (.392 wOBA, .238 ISO) and he garners a strong lineup spot against Mark Buehrle’s deteriorating skill set. Buehrle’s K Rate is down to just 10.6 percent and he’s allowing a career high 35 percent hard hit rate. Given Cuddyer’s history of success against LHP and Buehrle’s signs of deterioration, I think he’s one of the better outfield values.
Additional outfield notes: The outfielders are priced so differently around the industry that it’s difficult to peg industry wide value plays. FanDuel pricing is uniquely soft in the outfield. Hanley Ramirez (BOS), Carlos Gomez (MIL), and Adam Jones (BAL) are all priced down and have favorable matchups. I like Hanley and Joc the most of that group. Their price points aren’t particularly attractive on other sites, but I’d target them heavily on FanDuel. On DraftKings, there are a few site specific values as well. Billy Burns (OAK) and Ender Inciarte (ARZ) are priced below $3,000 and have favorable matchups with the platoon advantage. I like Burns speed upside against Tyson Ross who has allowed 21 stolen bases already in 13 starts and has a BB Rate above 11 percent against LHBs. Tyler Collins (DET) is another Tigers outfielder that comes with a cheap tag on DraftKings. Jeff Francoeur (PHI) and John Mayberry Jr. (NYM) are also hovering around the bare minimum price point and have the platoon advantage. If Alex Gordon (KC) hits fifth, he’ll emerge as a very strong value. The only knock on Gordon this year has been hitting sixth which limits the premier plate appearances.
Rankings (price not considered):
1a) Francisco Liriano (PIT)
1b) Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)
3) Jake Arrieta (CHC) – weather risk
4) Gio Gonzalez (WAS)
5) Dallas Keuchel (HOU)
6a) Tyson Ross (SD)
6b) Anibal Sanchez (DET) – weather risk
8) Trevor Bauer (CLE) – weather risk
9) Chad Bettis (COL)
10) Jesse Hahn (OAK)
11) Wei-Yin Chen (BAL)
Francisco Liriano (PIT) – Liriano is the type of pitcher you rarely feel comfortable investing in. He’s had an up-and-down career that includes four seasons with an ERA above 5.00 and four seasons with an ERA below 3.40. He’s historically struggled with command which often leads to stressful innings, the the occasional disaster start, and paranoid Fantasy owners. In reality, since joining Pittsburgh in 2013 he’s only had eight starts where he’s allowed more than four earned runs or allowed as many earned runs as innings pitched. This is a similar rate to most starters (11-12 percent) but the perception is Liriano’s control struggles carry more risk. This season he’s improved his control (8.7 percent BB Rate, 60.3 percent first strike rate) and as a result he’s generated a few more strikeouts (29 percent) as well. He gets an elite matchup against the White Sox who rank 30th in wRC+ against LHP with a putrid 5.5 percent BB rate and above average 22.3 percent K Rate. The White Sox as a team have posted just a .543 OPS against LHP this season. The loss of Adam LaRoche and the DH isn’t as big a deal in this matchup since LaRoche doesn’t hit LHP well but the park downgrade is substantial. The White Sox are very right handed but since 2012 Liriano has limited RHBs to a .303 wOBA while generating a 24.7 K Rate. The White Sox low BB Rate and a bottom 10 rank in pitches per plate appearance should mitigate Liriano’s lone risk (command). This makes for a particularly compelling matchup for Liriano. At home, as a heavy favorite (-170), we project Liriano as the top starter on Monday’s slate.
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) – Tanaka gets a similarly great matchup for his skill set on Monday. He faces a Marlins offense that ranks 28th in wRC+ against RHP with an above average K Rate (22 percent) and league worst ISO (.106). Tanaka has dominated RHBs at the big league level (.281 wOBA, 27.8 K Rate, and just a 4.8 BB Rate) and the Marlins routinely throw six RHBs into their lineup. Throw in the benefit of a league shift (no DH) with a big park upgrade and you could make the case Tanaka is the number one overall option on Monday. We have Liriano’s matchup and environment as slightly stronger, but Tanaka isn’t far behind. Pairing the two on multiple starting pitcher sites is a strong strategy this evening.
Next in line:
Jake Arrieta (CHC) – Arrieta is a bit behind both Liriano and Tanaka in our ranks. He has a more difficult matchup than the other two starters. The Indians rank sixth in wRC+ against RHP and have a below average K Rate (18 percent). Arrieta’s skills are in the same tier as Tanaka and Liriano but the matchup is not. On sites he’s priced down a bit, he’s a viable step down if you need the salary relief. However, I’m most likely only getting my exposure through tournaments.
Gio Gonzalez (WAS) – We touched on the rather wide disparity between our projections for the Rays offense against LHP and their actual results this season yesterday in our analysis of Chris Sale. The Rays have performed as the sixth best offense in wRC+ against LHP this season, but their lineup projects as well below average. Joey Butler and Logan Forsythe have had production that we’d suggest is unsustainable going forward and the lineup as a whole is relatively thin. Gio Gonzalez has had pretty neutral splits (.292 wOBA, 23.6 K Rate vs. RHBs, .278 wOBA, 26 K Rate vs. LHBs) throughout his career and Tampa Bay is a slight upgrade in park environment which mitigates the downgrade in facing a DH as opposed to a SP. Gonzalez’s rank is largely predicated on an expected K Rate approaching 25 percent. The Rays have struck out in 22.9 percent of their plate appearances against LHP and our projections for their lineup have them right around 22 percent. They’ve been dangerous so far against lefties, but we expect that performance to wane as the year goes on. Gonzalez comes with some risk, but he’s an acceptable option on multiple SP sites.
Additional starting pitcher notes: Tyson Ross (SD) and Anibal Sanchez (DET) are the next best values after Gio Gonzalez. Ross will face the Athletics who rank fourth in wRC+ against RHP and most importantly don’t strike out a ton (17.5 percent). Ross gets the benefit of facing them without the DH and in a great environment at home but I’m a little worried about his strikeout rate driving his value in this matchup. Anibal faces a really watered down Reds offense that ranks 21st in wRC+ against RHP this season but again hasn’t struck out a ton (18.7 percent). Sanchez has been able to generate strikeouts this year but has allowed a lot of hard contact. The matchup should help limit some of that hard contact but his volatility makes him a preferred tournament option. Trevor Bauer (CLE) is the best tournament play on the slate against a Cubs offense with a 25.4 K Rate against RHP. Bauer already has three starts this year in which he’s allowed five earned runs or more, but he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of the nine other starts. When he’s on, he’s fantastic. When he’s off, he’s a disaster. The Cubs offense is similar in those regards, which makes Bauer a better option in tournaments. Fortunately the price has come down after a recent disaster start which makes it easier to invest in him. Chad Bettis (COL) is my next favorite tournament option after Bauer. He faces a strikeout prone Astros offense (25.5 percent K Rate against RHP) that could be without Jose Altuve again. Bettis has flashed good peripherals this season including a 10.6 percent swinging strike rate and 20.8 percent K Rate while generating a healthy amount of ground balls (47 percent). Outside of Colorado I think there is some potential here. Dallas Keuchel (HOU) is an elite starter when it comes to run prevention but his strikeout rate is league average. Strikeouts are king in DFS and right now you’re paying for 7-8 and getting 4-5 with Keuchel. He’s made up for it with elite run prevention and averaging an absurd 7 1/3 innings per start, but betting on a 1.90 ERA and 7 1/3 innings per start to continue is a risky investment.
Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:
This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (firstname.lastname@example.org) if you have suggestions.
Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:
- Detroit Tigers – weather risk
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Boston Red Sox
- Baltimore Orioles
- Texas Rangers
These offenses all have the highest implied run totals. They’re facing weak starters in elite hitting environments and represent the chalkiest stacks for Monday’s slate. They all have expensive hitters so it’s a bit harder to mini-stack in cash games, but most of my hitters will come from these five lineups.
- Kansas City Royals
- Los Angeles Angels
- New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs – weather risk
The Royals don’t stand out as great individual values but they get a huge park shift in their favor and the Brewers bullpen behind Lohse is terrible. Everyone in the lineup is pretty cheap and the big knock on the Royals is a lack of home run potential. In Milwaukee, where home runs are inflated 10-11 percent above the league average, I think the Royals have nice offensive upside with low ownership. They’re my favorite contrarian tournament stack.
The Angels are a good offense against LHP and make for a nice mini-stack with the top of their lineup. They also have Chris Iannetta (.360 wOBA, .187 ISO) towards the bottom of the lineup and he’s historically crushed LHP. Trout, Pujols, and Freese are the headliners against LHP but Aybar and Iannetta are exposure at thin positions that you can fill out as well.
The Mets might be a little too popular after yesterday’s explosion. They face Mark Buehrle who is in steep decline and oddly is getting hit hard by LHBs and RHBs. Remarkably, Buehrle has allowed six home runs to LHBs this season which is the same number of LHBs that he’s struck out! The Mets have some power lefties that will come with almost no ownership and the Blue Jays bullpen isn’t particularly great either.
Always stack against Trevor Bauer. Bauer’s a good enough pitcher that he pushes ownership levels down but he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (45.9 percent) who struggles with walks (11 percent) and is a negative in controlling the running game (-2 rSB). The Cubs have all sorts of power throughout their lineup and they’re fifth in the league in stolen bases. They have a great combination of power and speed upside and due to expensive price points, I think they’ll come with lower ownership against Bauer.
MLB Game Weather Forecasts
In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.
ATL at BOS 7:00: Cloudy and damp with some drizzle or sprinkles around after rain much of the day. If the rain lasts longer than currently forecast, I could see a 20% chance of a late start to the game. Temps only in the mid-50s. Air density is a 4. Wind east-northeast 10-20 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 2.
PHL at BLT 7:05: Showers and thunderstorms around. There is the potential for a somewhat steady period of rain, especially early in the game. Chance of a delay is 40%, chance of a cancellation is 20%. There is also a 20% chance of multiple delays. Temps around 80 falling into the low to mid 70s in steady rain. Air density is an 8 (very muggy). Wind southwest 4-8 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.
CHW at PIT 7:05: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Very little chance of a cancellation (~10%) while there is a slightly higher chance of a delay (20%). Basically, not overly concerned about the weather in this game. Temps in the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind southwest 6-12 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 6.
CIN at DET 7:08: Occasional rain all day long. A solid line of thunderstorms moves into the city around 6 PM. This looks like a case where a cancellation is likely (60-70%). Delay is highly likely if the game is not cancelled. Temps in the mid-70s. Air density is a 7. Wind southwest 7-14 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 4.
TOR at NYM 7:10: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Not concerned about this game in terms of a cancellation but there is a 10-20% chance of a delay. Temps in the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind northeast 4-8 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 4.
NYY at MIA 7:10: The retractable roof will likely be closed.
WSH at TB 7:10: Dome.
LAD at TEX 8:05: Widely scattered thunderstorms, nothing organized. Very little chance (<10%) of cancellation with a 20% chance of a delay. Temps in the mid-80s falling into the upper 70s. Air density is an 8. Wind southeast 6-12 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 4.
CLE at CHC 8:05: Thunderstorms morph into a steady rain. Thunderstorms move into the city around 4 PM and the rain is steady until about 8-9 PM. My 1st instinct is that they may just cancel the game but the model I most trust is saying the rain should end by 8-9 PM so a delay to the start of the game may be the way to go. Still a risky game. I would say a 40% chance of a cancellation right now with a 60% chance of a delay to start. After the rain ends, no more rain will affect the region afterwards. Temps near 70. Air density is a 6 or 7. Wind west-northwest 5-10 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.
KC at MIL 8:10: Retractable roof. Rain around so the roof will be closed.
COL at HOU 8:10: Retractable roof. Rain. The roof will be closed. Interestingly enough, this rain is from a likely tropical storm that is heading towards the area. I could see a case where officials are scared and they cancel the game. Something to keep an eye on. If they were to cancel the game, they would likely do so well before the start of the game.
MIN at STL 8:15: The site of yesterday’s surprise cancellation. Well, that potential is there agsin today. Numerous showers and thunderstorms around the region. Seems to me that they should be able to play given that it is not a steady shield of rain, the thunderstorms are moving and there is no severe weather expected. Temps in the upper 70s. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 8-16 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7.
AZ at LAA 10:05: Dry. Temps in the mid-60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west 8-16 mph which blows which blows out to right. The wind is a 7.
OAK at SD 10:10: Dry. Temps in the low 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west 7-14 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
SEA at SF 10:15: Dry. Temps in the mid-60s falling into the upper 50s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind west-northwest 15-25 mph lessening to 8-16 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is an 8 becoming a 7.