Daily Fantasy Rundown – June 16th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Weather issues today: high threat for a cancellation for TEX tonight as rain from Tropical Storm Bill moves into the region. Small concerns for a delay in NYC and BLT.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
NOTE: With the weather forecast bleak in Texas, I have not included players from that game in today’s content. If the weather forecast improves between now and roster lock, we’ll make sure to cover the impact of that via our alerts system.
Matt Wieters (BAL) – When Matt Wieters is healthy, he’s one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He’s posted a .182-plus ISO every season since 2011 and is a virtual 20-plus HR lock over a full season. Those skills make him arguably the most talented catcher eligible player for tonight’s slate but he also carries the best contextual factors. Wieters will command a top five lineup spot for a Baltimore offense with the highest implied run total this evening (over 5) at home in Camden Yards (seventh best hitting environment according to parkfactors.com). Opposing pitcher Jerome Williams has allowed a .342 wOBA and 1.05 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012. He’s been particularly bad this season (5.71 ERA) as he’s suffering from high BABIP and HR/FB rates, something that shouldn’t simply be dismissed as bad luck given his age and declining velocity. Wieters is mid-priced across the industry and there’s virtually no opportunity cost at the position tonight, making him the go to catcher for cash games.
Additional catcher notes: Alternative options for cash games are Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) (top four lineup spot, no platoon edge but decent all-around skills and opposing pitcher Scott Copeland projects to be very bad), Miguel Montero (CHC) (should hit clean up with the platoon edge against Trevor Bauer who can be volatile) and James McCann (DET) (if he gets a top six lineup spot he makes for a decent cash game punt as the Tigers have a high team total right around 5). My preferred options in tournaments are Brian McCann (NYY) (not a great price and huge downtick in park factor but opposing RHP David Phelps is allowing a ton of hard contact and not missing bats) and Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) (not a great option when looking at wOBA splits but definite power upside at home against an extreme fly ball pitcher in Chris Young; underpriced in general based on overall skills and batting position).
Miguel Cabrera (DET) – You’ll quickly learn that the theme of today is to mix in as many Tigers and Orioles as you possibly can. We’ve already started a bit on the Orioles in Wieters’ blurb, now let’s look at the Tigers. They face Reds rookie RHP Michael Lorenzen. Despite his 4.01 ERA, which looks below average but not terrible, Lorenzen is almost the exact prototype of the pitcher you want to pick on in MLB DFS. He doesn’t miss bats. He walks people. He has a below average GB rate. He doesn’t force soft contact. While it’s a small sample size, most of what has been described fits exactly what projection systems have called for and continue to call for. The cherry on top is Lorenzen gets beat by both handedness of batters. Of the starting pitchers in action tonight, Lorenzen has the second highest wOBA allowed to RHBs and the highest wOBA allowed to LHBs. Not surprisingly then, Miguel Cabrera is our top first baseman and second ranked hitter overall tonight. As most elite hitters are, Cabrera has been great against both right and left handed pitching throughout his career. He seemed like he may have started to decline last season, but this year his EYE has jumped from .51 to .89 and ISO from .211 to .251. The vast majority of his peripherals are right in line with his career averages. At an expensive price point, I’ll likely bypass Cabrera in cash games and go for a more balanced approach. However, he’s an elite tournament option and the bat to pay up for if skimping elsewhere.
Next in line: Anthony Rizzo (CHC) (absurd peripherals and platoon edge against volatile Trevor Bauer keeps him in the conversation in all formats but for cash on most sites I’d rather pay up for Cabrera or more than likely, down for Davis/Duda)
Chris Davis (BAL) – The Orioles team total is going to land somewhere between 5 and 5.5 tonight as they face an over the hill Jerome Williams at home. Williams’ LD rate allowed has risen rather steadily since 2006: 13.6/15.1/16.4/21.2/23/25.5. This in conjunction with an average velocity of 90.0 mph (91.3 or higher from 2011-2014) is likely responsible for his high .340 BABIP and 15.9 HR/FB rate, which have resulted in an ERA (5.71) higher than the already bad expected ERAs (5.27 FIP, 4.47 xFIP). Look for Williams to have an ERA around 5 ROS with a HR/9 hovering around 1.5. Davis is in good position to take advantage of this matchup as he has the platoon edge (.377 wOBA, .277 ISO against RHP since 2012) and a nice power profile that meshes with Williams’ weaknesses. He consistently makes really hard contact (hard minus soft hit rate of 32.2 percent) and elevates the ball (just a 34.1 GB rate), giving Davis our highest HR score in our model. There’s a ton of upside here for a mid-tier cost.
Lucas Duda (NYM) – Duda rates about even to Davis in our model as both carry a similar ranking and are priced evenly on FanDuel and DraftKings. This makes him a nice alternative in cash games if you want to diversify off of some Orioles. He’ll also likely be too low owned in tournaments as people like to break ties with the player in the higher scoring game. It’s not that that’s a bad idea, but it likely will result in a Davis:Duda ownership ratio that is much higher than it should be based on the fact that both players have similar probabilities of success tonight. Duda has crushed RHP since 2012 (.365 wOBA, .221 ISO, while playing in a pitcher’s park) and his peripherals this season suggest those numbers will continue. Opposing pitcher Scott Copeland is a rookie who has had success through one start and three appearances total (0.90 ERA), but that’s entirely a result of a low sample size. Copeland couldn’t strike out people in the Minors, making him a pitch to contact guy. ZiPS projects him to post just a 4.82 K/9, giving him a 1.10 K/BB ratio and 5.72 ERA. Specifically against LHBs, ZiPS projects Copeland to allow a .367 wOBA and .170 ISO.
Additional first base notes: Adam LaRoche (CHW) pops up as underpriced in our model but I have a tough time utilizing him anywhere as the opportunity cost is high in cash games and the upside isn’t great in tournaments (big park, GB pitcher). Two players I’d rather look to in tournaments are Mark Teixeira (NYY) (having an amazing bounce back year as plate discipline and power numbers are phenomenal; Yankees are on of our preferred contrarian stacks) and Ryan Howard (PHI) (making lots of hard hit, aerial contact, which gives him a top five HR score in our model against Chris Tillman).
Ian Kinsler (DET) – With options at second base rather muddled together, Kinsler is a good way to get exposure to the Tigers offense we are very high on tonight. While the power is certainly in decline, it’s good to see Kinsler’s patience return (10 percent BB rate, .82 EYE) and even with declining power it’s highly likely the 1.2 HR/FB rate increases moving forward.
Dee Gordon (MIA) – Opposing pitcher Nate Eovaldi has the second highest wOBA allowed to LHBs of any SP in action tonight (.349). Eovaldi yields a high LD rate (24.1 percent) and a sub-2.00 K/BB ratio to LHBs. Any time there’s an above normal probability of Gordon reaching base, he’s a cash game target due to his elite stolen base upside. That’s certainly the case tonight with no expensive option worth paying up for and Gordon’s price dropping down to the mid-tier level.
Brandon Phillips (CIN) – The third offense most worth focusing on this evening is the Reds. They’ll face DET LHP Kyle Ryan, who has a ZiPS projected 6.11 ERA and Steamer projected 4.63 ERA. Both systems expect Ryan to allow more than a homer per 9, and that’s because he consistently allows contact. Prior t his call up, he was striking out just 5.17 betters per 9 at the AAA level. That inability to miss bats will inevitably get a pitcher into trouble at the MLB level, and in all likelihood the K rate will drop due to the change in level. Phillips has been battling a groin injury but has started and led off the past two games. Phillips is running a bit more this year (eight steals already) and striking out less, which helps him to keep some Fantasy value despite a deteriorating power profile. I do prefer Kinsler and Gordon at similar prices, but since opportunity cost at the position is pretty low today, it’s fine to use Phillips if the few hundred dollars in savings allows you to upgrade elsewhere.
Additional second base notes: Jimmy Paredes (BAL) is a viable alternative to the written up options, particularly where cheaper. Like Kinsler, he’s a low cost way to get access to one of our top two offenses on the evening. Chase Utley (PHI) has been absolutely horrific but at a very cheap price in a great matchup is someone to take a shot on if you’re desperate for cap relief at the position.
Jung-Ho Kang (PIT) – The shortstop position is rather horrific tonight, making Kang the go to option as he’ll hit clean up and have the platoon edge. Not all of the contextual factors are good (solid opposing pitcher, pitcher’s park), but the lineup spot and Kang’s skills are enough to make him the clear top shortstop option given his low actual cost and the low opportunity cost. Kang has decent pop for a shortstop (projections systems expect ISO to be around .150 ROS), and his high LD rate (23.9 percent) has enable him to post a favorable BABIP and well above average .342 wOBA for a SS. It’s tough to put too much stock into splits given the incredibly small sample size, but Kang has a 171 wRC+ and .200 ISO against southpaws in 35 PAs. Definitely take that with a grain of salt but also keep in mind the risk in that sample size being wrong is mitigated by the cost associated with Kang.
Additional shortstop notes: Other punt options at shortstop are Eugenio Suarez (CIN) (should hit sixth and hold platoon edge on Kyle Ryan), Alcides Escobar (KC) (no platoon edge but leading off against a mediocre pitcher in a good hitter’s park) and Erick Aybar (LAA) (bad skills but lead off spot against a bad pitcher makes him the most cost effective way to get exposure against Hellickson). Wilmer Flores (NYM) is a viable cash game alternative as he has nice pop for a shortstop, a top five lineup spot and faces an underwhelming rookie pitcher for the Jays. I still give Kang the edge, but Flores is viable on FanDuel (where it makes more sense to diversify off of Kang than it does on DraftKings) for the same price. JJ Hardy (BAL) is a good tournament option due to park and expected team success and would be my preferred punt at the position if he’s able to garner a top six lineup spot.
Todd Frazier (CIN) – On sites like DraftKings where Frazier is much more expensive than Lucas Duda and Chris Davis and only a few hundred dollars cheaper than Miguel Cabrera, he doesn’t make much sense in cash games since you can utilize two of Duda/Davis/Cabrera by occupying one of them in your third base spot. However, Frazier is the clear top play at third base on FanDuel where position eligibility is stricter. I’d be much more prone to try and squeeze him into cash games on that site. We’ve talked about the issues that opposing pitcher Kyle Ryan has, and Frazier is in good position to take advantage. He has a .348 wOBA and .222 ISO against LHP since 2012. More important than Frazier’s splits is his overall offensive profile right now. He’s on pace to match last season’s career best in steals (20) and is showing the best power and plate discipline of his career. Frazier has managed to maintain his career BB rate while dropping his K rate from around 21 percent for his career to 17.8. That’s supported by a reduction in swinging strike rate. As far as power goes, Frazier has a huge .310 ISO. That likely won’t last but it’s also not a fluke that he’s hitting for more power than ever before. His hard hit rate is nearly 10 points higher than his career mark and his GB rate has simultaneously dropped 10 points. In essence, Frazier is making more contact, harder contact and more aerial contact. That meshes with his higher BA and higher ISO.
FanDuel Specific Punt:
Chase Headley (NYY) – I’ll try to roster Frazier on FanDuel, but if his price tag ends up being prohibitive, it makes sense to go the mid-tier route with Manny Machado (BAL) (leading off for highest expected scoring team, has made plate discipline and power strides this season) or simply punt with Headley. Headley is the bare minimum on FanDuel, and the Yankees in general may fly under the radar due to park and an okay ERA (4.11) for opposing pitcher David Phelps. Under the surface, though, Phelps looks like a disaster waiting to happen as his SwStr rate sits at 4.4 percent and hard minus soft hit rate a whopping 30.7. Headley doesn’t have huge upside in terms of individual skills but he’s a switch hitter who has held his own against RHP (.344 wOBA, .154 ISO since 2012) and is hitting second for a lefty heavy lineup.
Additional third base notes: Alternative options are Nick Castellanos (DET) (part of a DET stack in tournaments, viable in cash if top six) and Josh Harrison (PIT) (decent tag, platoon edge, leading off).
Top Play: Mike Trout (LAA) (with the outfield being an easy way to get exposure to the cheap and mid-tier with high upside Orioles and Tigers bats, the expensive tag on Trout seems unnecessary on most sites; if you are looking to utilize Trout in cash games (he’s our top ranked hitter in our model as Jeremy Hellickson is giving up a ton of hard contact) it makes more sense on DraftKings than on FanDuel)
Tigers Outfield – The great part about the Tigers and Orioles outfielders is each has at least one cheap player to give you cap relief and a couple of mid-tier options that give you high end upside. For the Tigers, the cap relief option is obvious. If Anthony Gose (DET) leads off he’s a primary target in cash games. It’s an incredibly cheap way to get prime access to this offense. Tyler Collins (DET) has a worse lineup spot but could still hit sixth and carries more power upside than Gose does as a cap relief option. The mid-tier options of course are Yoenis Cespedes (DET) and JD Martinez (DET). I’d give the edge to Cespedes here due to lineup spot but it’s fine to diversify among these two based on site pricing. In general, my Tigers value priority is in this order: Gose (if leading off), Cespdes, Martinez and finally Collins.
Orioles Outfield – The best Oriole outfielder to target is the chalk answer – Adam Jones (BAL). Jones carries a mid-tier price tag on most sites but is well worth it given the matchup and environment. As we’ve pointed out throughout the first half of the season, Jones has made some nice strides at the plate, posting a career best EYE and his lowest GB rate as an Oriole. Both are very good signs for his power. It should also be noted that Jones doesn’t have a wide platoon split so the same handed matchup isn’t much of a negative for him. The cap relief option on the Orioles is Nolan Reimold (BAL). Reimold may not come with much fanfare, but he’s actually a pretty good hitter, just someone who can never stay healthy. He has a career .192 ISO and is a solid source of power despite GB rates that are higher than we’d like to see. Reimold has started the past five games with a top five lineup spot in three of those. Another top five lineup spot would make him a great cash game play. Another consideration on the Orioles is Travis Snider. He’s extremely cheap and the one Oriole outfielder who will hold the platoon edge.
Curtis Granderson (NYM) – Granderson’s price tag is starting to creep up as the production is beginning to match the solid peripherals, but there’s still value to be had. His .145 ISO is the lowest of his MLB career. While that may seem to make sense given his age (34) and steady ISO decline the past two seasons, I actually expect a decent sized rise in his ISO moving forward. Granderson is making really hard contact (38.6 hard hit rate is a career best) and his GB rate is very low at 32.1 percent (career mark is 34.9). With that batted ball distribution and a solid BB rate and overall EYE, the ISO should be higher than what it is. Look for Granderson to take advantage of opposing pitch Scott Copeland’s inability to miss bats this evening. Teammate Michael Cuddyer (NYM) is a viable cheap option, but his overall profile is a bit of a mess.
Additional outfield notes: Andrew McCutchen (PIT) absolutely crushes LHP throughout his career. He’s cash game playable as a result, although it’s tough to pony up for him over the DET/BAL guys, making him an easier option on DK. Teammate Starling Marte (PIT) is viable in tournaments. Kole Calhoun (LAA) is a mid-tier option as he’ll carry a great lineup spot and the platoon edge against Jeremy Hellickson (.325 wOBA, 1.23 HR/9 allowed to LHBs since 2012). Christian Yelich‘s (MIA) insanely high GB rate is started to decrease a bit and his good lineup spot makes him a decent value play alternative against Eovaldi, who struggles against LHBs. Jose Bautista (TOR) is a nice tournament option on DraftKings. It’s tough to ever find him that cheap and as dominant as Harvey is, he’s had some HR issues. Consider him a stack filler in tournaments. Other tournament options are Jay Bruce (CIN) (L/L but good surrounding team upside and Ryan isn’t very good), Billy Hamilton (CIN) (elite stolen base upside) and Alex Gordon/Alex Rios (KC) (mostly based on price and park).
Rankings (price not considered):
1a) Matt Harvey (NYM)
2b) Jake Arrieta (CHC)
3) Trevor Bauer (CLE)
4) Garrett Richards (LAA)
5) Tanner Roark (WAS)
6) Jose Quintana (CHW)
7) Charlie Morton (PIT)
8) Nathan Eovaldi (NYY)
9) Chris Young (KC)
Matt Harvey (NYM) – Our top two pitchers, Harvey and Arrieta, are ranked very closely in our model. Both pitchers have positives and negatives surrounding them tonight but it’s ultimately worth pursuing one of them in cash games given the skills gap between these two and the rest of the options this evening. Harvey has really struggled with the long ball lately (1.36 HR/9 on the season), something that has been amplified by his GB rate dropping from 47.4 percent to 41.5. While the latter is within Harvey’s control, a lot of Harvey’s HR issues have simply been bad luck. He’s allowing a 15.4 HR/FB rate despite a 26.7 hard hit rate and 20.7 soft hit rate, both slightly better than his career averages that have led to an 8.6 HR/FB rate. Look for the HR problems to correct themselves going forward, which should make Harvey a 3.00 ERA pitcher with huge K upside given that the K and BB rates are in line with his awesome pre-TJS season. In other words, don’t be concerned about Harvey’s skills tonight. If there is concern, it lies with the Blue Jays powerful offense. They rank second in wRC+ against RHP. The good news for Harvey in this regard is that the Jays hitters are right handed, they will still K a decent amount, they lose the DH and the offensive park factor is much lower in Citi Field. It’s still a high risk offense for Harvey to face but probably not as dangerous as it looks at first glance. Ultimately, I’ll probably take Arrieta for cheaper than Harvey due to a lower price and just in case Harvey’s HR woes of late are more legitimate than I believe.
Jake Arrieta (CHC) – While we view Arrieta as slightly behind Harvey in our starting pitcher rankings today (he’s 1b, Harvey is 1a), he’s the better value around the industry, particularly on DraftKings where the pricing gap between the two is significant. The cool conditions, air density and wind blowing in a bit all work together to form a favorable pitching environment for Arrieta, mitigating the park edge that Harvey holds over him. Arrieta, like Harvey, faces a tough offense. Cleveland gets very left handed and their 107 wRC+ against RHP puts them in a tie for fifth in all of MLB and the 18.0 K percentage is lower than league average. Arrieta, again like Harvey, has such a significant skills gap over the rest of the field tonight that the less than ideal matchup doesn’t deter us from wanting to use a top pitcher to anchor cash games. While the ERA is higher from last year, Arrieta has actually pitched a touch better. His K and GB rates are virtually identical to last year but an improvement in F-Strike rate has led to a reduced walk rate (dropped from 2.36 per 9 to 1.75 per 9). For the second straight year, Arrieta also has an elite hard minus soft hit rate (0.5). The main concern for Arrieta tonight has to be all the Cleveland LHBs but his 24.9 K percentage and .300 wOBA allowed to LHBs since 2012 as well as Cleveland losing the DH playing in an NL park mitigates a lot of that risk. He’s neck and neck with Harvey in our rankings and the top pitcher I’ll anchor my cash games with due to the price difference between him and Harvey.
Trevor Bauer (CLE) – Call me a masochist, but I’m going back to Bauer on two pitcher sites such as DraftKings. Bauer is certainly a viable commodity and in a vacuum someone I’d rather own in tournaments than cash games. For example, he strikes out a lot of guys (24.3 percent) but also walks a lot of guys (11 percent). He induces a huge amount of soft contact (24.6 percent) but also a higher than average amount of hard contact (31.2 percent). While that makes it difficult to tell what you will get from Bauer start to start, his upside blows away the upside of any of the other secondary options in his price range. Our model has him with the highest projected K percentage tonight as the Cubs strike out 25.4 percent of the time against RHP, tied for tops in MLB. They’re also below average in wRC+ against RHP (21st) and, as mentioned in Arrieta’s blurb, the weather tonight at Wrigley seems as if it will be favoring pitchers. Once the line and umpire for this game are known, we can make a better assessment of Bauer in our alerts. As of now, though, I’m looking to embrace some risk and capture his upside as my second starting pitcher on multi-SP formats.
Additional starting pitcher notes: Garrett Richards (LAA), despite ranking behind Bauer in our rankings, is probably a safer play in cash games if you can find him at similar price levels. He’s a heavy -200 favorite at home against the Diamondbacks. My concern with Richards is his velocity was reduced last game, and he’s a bit reliant on inducing soft contact to achieve his results. I’m not sure how the two will mix if the reduced velocity continues.
Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:
This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (firstname.lastname@example.org) if you have suggestions. Tanner Roark (WAS) faces a pretty bad Rays team in a favorable pitcher’s park. He’s a viable second SP on DraftKings, where the price is really low, but I just have a tough time accepting his low K upside. Jose Quintana (CHW) and Charlie Morton (CHW) both strike me as safe options at pitcher friendly PNC park but the value on them isn’t great on any individual site. Chris Young (KC) makes for a nice cheap tournament option. His K rate is up a little bit as the velocity and SwStr rate are better. He’s still far from safe in a park that aids homers (extreme FB pitcher), but with some HR/FB luck he could help win a tournament and is the cheapest SP I’d consider this evening.
Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:
1) Baltimore Orioles
2) Detroit Tigers
3) Los Angeles Dodgers
We covered the top two very extensively within the content. The Dodgers weren’t covered due to weather concerns, but I wanted to give some idea where they’d rank if that game were to clear up. As a team they lead MLB in wRC+ versus RHP and a move to Texas is a large park shift in their hitters’ favor. Opposing pitcher Chi Chi Gonzalez has a .42 ERA, but that is terribly misleading. He has an xFIP of 5.17 and has walked more guys than he has struck out. Yes, he’s limited hard contact but there’s a disaster start in here waiting to happen.
1) Cincinnati Reds (another one we hit pretty hard in the analysis – Ryan simply does not project to be very good and won’t miss bats)
2) New York Yankees (mentioned several times throughout today’s content that Phelps’ underlying peripherals against a lefty heavy Yankee squad results in a lot more offensive upside than meets the initial eye; don’t forget road teams are guaranteed that ninth inning for their hitters, which can be the difference between cashing a stack in tournaments and not)
3) Kansas City Royals (not a lot of great individual values popped for us today but this is an affordable stack that is getting a significant park shift and Matt Garza is having the worst year of his career)
4) Los Angeles Angels (good park shift for Hellickson but he’s giving up so much hard contact (35.7 hard hit rate) and facing an AL lineup that blow up potential still exists)
5) Philadelphia Phillies (better as a mini-stack since this lineup isn’t very deep but it is cheap and comes with upside given how horrendous Chris Tillman has been – 5.68 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 4.99 xFIP_
MLB Game Weather Forecasts
In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.
PHL at BLT 7:05: A small chance (20%) of a thunderstorm causing a delay. Basically, not overly concerned but another place to watch. Temps in the mid 80s falling into the mid to upper 70s. Air density is an 8. Wind west-northwest 5-10 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
CHW at PIT 7:05: Dry. Temps in the mid 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7. Wind northwest 6-12 mph lessening to 3-6 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.
CIN at DET 7:08: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6 (air is dry here). Wind north-northeast 5-10 mph lessening to 3-6 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.
TOR at NYM 7:10: A 20% chance of a thunderstorm at the beginning of the game that may cause a delay but no concerns about a cancellation. Temps near 80 falling into the mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind northwest 6-12 mph lessening to 3-6 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
NYY at MIA 7:10: The retractable roof will likely be closed.
WSH at TB 7:10: Dome.
LAD at TEX 8:05: A heavy, soaking rain associated with Tropical Storm Bill. Renewed flooding threat. Would say that there is a high possibility of a cancellation (60-80%). If they do play, temps will be near 80. Air density will be an 8. Wind east-southeast 10-20 mph which blows in from left-center. The wind is a 3.
CLE at CHC 8:05: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 60s falling into the mid to upper 50s. Air density is a 5 becoming a 4. Wind northeast 10-20 becoming 8-16 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 3.
KC at MIL 8:10: Dry. Temps only in the low 60s falling into the low to mid 50s. Air density is a 5. Wind northeast 8-16 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
AZ at LAA 10:05: Dry. Temps near 70 falling into the mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 7-14 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.