Daily Fantasy Rundown – June 17th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Little concern for a cancellation anywhere tonight. Moderate concerns for a delay or delayed start in CIN, WSH and COL. Smaller delay concerns in MIN, PHL and CLE
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Evan Gattis (HOU) – Gattis is primarily catcher eligible on FanDuel as he’s rightfully lost that status on most other sites. There he’s the top catcher option before taking into consideration price. The Astros have the highest run total on the day at 6. That’s quite hefty and rare we see that number, but that’s what happens when the team that leads the league in home runs has these contextual factors in their favor: a trip to Coors Field and a matchup against Kyle Kendrick (5.87 ERA, 5.8 FIP, 4.52 K/9, 35.1 hard hit rate) and the Rockies bullpen (fourth highest ERA in MLB). There are so many teams in good situations tonight that it’s tough to say you have to force exposure to any one of them, but the Astros are the top tournament stack of the day. There are decent mid-tier catcher options on FanDuel, so when you take into account price and opportunity cost (Clayton Kershaw pitching, expensive bats at other positions) Gattis is by no means a must play.
Next in line:
Wilin Rosario (COL) – Fading Wilin Rosario at home is always a risky proposition as he owns a massive career .421 wOBA and .300 ISO against LHP (402 PAs). The underlying peripherals against LHP support the gaudy numbers as he has a hard minus soft hit rate of 29.7 percent and a 16.3 K percentage, which is low for those power numbers. If Rosario is once again in the clean up spot (where he hit last time against a southpaw), he becomes a core cash game option for me. He’s catcher eligible on the majority of sites outside of FanDuel, where he’s priced friendly enough to be used at first base. If Rosario finds himself outside of the top six lineup spots, he moves away from a cash game option but would still be an elite tournament play. Opposing pitcher Brett Oberholtzer has a ZiPS projected .348 wOBA and .191 ISO allowed to RHBs. Teammate Nick Hundley (COL) is expected to start at catcher. He’s not the same offensive player that Rosario is but should still be considered a cash game target across the industry due to the elite offensive environment and high team total (implied run total over 5).
Matt Wieters (BAL) – Wieters unfortunately did not grab the start for the Orioles onslaught yesterday but that means he’ll be back in the lineup tonight for an equally enticing matchup. The Orioles move to the NL so lose a little bit in the way of park factor and lineup depth (no DH), but ultimately they should have plenty of success against Kevin Correia. The 34 year old RHP has pretty much been awful his whole career. Let’s look at his ERAs since 2008: 6.05/3.91/5.40/4.79/4.21/4.18/5.44. Both ZiPS and Steamer project an ERA over 4.50 with around 1.20 HR/9 allowed. While it’s nice that Wieters will have the platoon edge, the nice part about attacking Correia is there are no easy outs for him as he struggles against both RHBs (.335 wOBA allowed since 2012, lowest K rate split of any pitcher in action tonight) and LHBs (.345 wOBA, 11.8 K percentage). Wieters is one of the most talented offensive catchers in the game (.180 ISO guy with 20-pls HR skills over a full season) and should hit either fourth or fifth.