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6/18 MLB DFS: Rack up the Ks with Danny

6/18 MLB DFS: Rack up the Ks with Danny
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – June 18th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Weather: Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

Catcher

Top Play:

Buster Posey (SFG) (Posey is usually our top ranked catcher when he faces a below average LHP due to his elite skill set; the lack of offense surrounding him and the bad hitting environment keeps him from being a core value in cash games despite his fair price tag)

Next in line:

Brian McCann (NYY) – After reading some velocity reports, it looks like Mat Latos regained his fastball velocity (up from 90 MPH to 93 MPH in his last start) and his breaking pitches gained some velocity again. Latos has been hampered by injuries in the last few seasons but when he’s healthy, he’s a solid pitcher. He hasn’t been very good this season (just got back from a stint on the DL) but his expected ERAs all point towards him being a 3.5 run pitcher. The Yankees have a team total of 4.5 implied runs and they’re playing at home (short porch for those LHBs) but Latos potentially being fully healthy once again keeps me away from loading up on this offense. McCann is a good option because he’s a catcher (scarce position), he can hit for power (.202 ISO this season, back in line with his career ISO after posting a .174 ISO last season) and this ballpark helps pull hitters (Yankee Stadium increases LH power by approximately 17 percent above the league average). Another factor going for McCann is that the surrounding offense is better than Buster Posey‘s (a lineup full of LHBs against a RHP) and he has been hitting third as of late (best lineup spot for DFS production). This helps diminish the gap in skill between these two hitters and they’re both ranked inside our top 40 hitters this evening.

Value Play:

Yasmani Grandal (LAD) – We’ll have to monitor Grandal’s spot in the lineup tonight as he has been hitting seventh against RHP lately. We’re hoping for a top six spot in the Dodgers lineup for Grandal, as he gets a friendly matchup against Colby Lewis (.355 wOBA, 1.21 HR/9 allowed to LHBs since 2012). Grandal is a good hitter against RHP (.811 OPS against RHP in the last few seasons) and the Dodgers have a team total approaching 4.5 runs. Having exposure to this offense at a scarce position makes sense in cash games.

Additional catcher notes: Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) has a good matchup against the contact oriented Jeremy Guthrie. Lucroy has been hitting leadoff or second for the Brewers since coming back from the DL, which is good for his DFS value. The Royals have an elite defense/bullpen, which are the main reasons why I don’t pick on them much at Kauffman Stadium. I don’t mind doing so at a scarce position in cash games but keep in mind that Lucroy is a secondary option (the catchers above rate much better in our model). J.T. Realmuto (MIA) only hits seventh (even against a southpaw) but he will have the platoon edge against CC Sabathia (struggles mightily against RHBs) at Yankee Staidum (one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball). In a small sample (46 PAs), Realmuto has accumulated a .379 wOBA, .214 ISO against southpaws. He’s a secondary option on sites he’s priced fairly. Kyle Schwarber (CHC) has catcher eligibility on DraftKings and if Miguel Montero continues to be out, he will likely hit sixth (he hit sixth last night). He has a tough matchup against Danny Salazar but I consider him to be the best salary relief option on that site ($2,800). Schwarber’s best tool at the minor league level has been power (.258 ISO) and Salaza struggles with the long ball. We’re not picking on Salazar in cash games since he’s our top pitcher but we don’t mind doing it at a scarce position if the salary relief is useful.

First Base

Top Plays:

The top first basemen on this slate are Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) and Joey Votto (CIN). They’re both priced pretty fairly around the industry but Encarnacion probably has the bigger upside (friendlier matchup against a contact pitcher at Rogers Centre). These two can be used in cash games but I prefer the values play below since they’re cheaper and rate similarly in our model.

Value Play:

David Ortiz (BOS) – Ortiz ranks inside our top five hitters tonight. Shelby Miller is a good pitcher and we don’t want to pick on him much but he has allowed 1.07 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012 and he has allowed a 34 percent hard hit rate to southpaws this season. Ortiz has smashed RHP (.408 wOBA, .278 ISO against RHP since 2012) and despite undergoing some regression this season, most of it has come against LHP (he’s 39 years old so it’s not totally crazy that he’s underdoing some skill erosion when he doesn’t have the platoon edge). Ortiz continues to be too cheap around the industry (particularly on FanDuel, where he’s priced below the average price of a hitter) and that has lead to high ownership in cash games. According to the market, Ortiz continues to be a good DFS option when he faces RHPs.

Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) and Lucas Duda (NYM) – Gonzalez (ninth) and Duda (10th) rank very closely in our model. They both have favorable matchups against below average hitters but Duda is hitting in a superior environment (Rogers Centre). While Duda is hitting in the better environment, Gonzalez has a superior group of hitters surrounding him (the Dodgers rank first in wOBA and wRC+ against RHP) and Colby Lewis has been worse than R.A. Dickey against LHBs (higher wOBA and hard hit rate allowed since 2012). Ortiz, Gonzalez and Duda are priced similarly around the industry and I’m likely hedging with these value first basemen in cash games depending on their price points. Ortiz has been the better performer lately (Gonzalez and Duda have struggled in June) so he’s my main cash game target at first base on sites where he’s priced below the average cost of a hitter.

Additional first base notes: Preferred tournament options include Miguel Cabrera (DET) (elite skills against all types of pitching and he gets a matchup against a contact pitcher in a great hitting environment; he’s too expensive to consider for cash games on FanDuel but he’s viable for cash games on DraftKings), Anthony Rizzo (CHC) (top three first baseman and his price point is depressed on most sites; his matchup against Danny Salazar isn’t very good but he does struggle with the long ball), Mark Teixeira (NYY) (has vastly improved his contact rate, plate discipline and his power has returned after suffering some nagging wrist injuries in the last few seasons; short porch at Yankee Stadium should continue to help his power) and Pedro Alvarez (PIT) (high risk, high reward DFS option due to his nature to strike out or hit for power; he will carry the platoon advantage against Jeff Samardzija, who has struggled against southpaws this season, at U.S. Cellular Field)

Second Base

Top Play:

Neil Walker (PIT) – Walker is a switch hitter but he’s a better hitter from the left side of the plate (.352 wOBA, .192 ISO against RHP since 2012). The Pirates offense is experiencing a huge upgrade in hitting environment (from PNC Park to U.S. Cellular Field) and opposing pitcher Jeff Samardzija has struggled with LHBs (.364 wOBA, 1.32 HR/9 allowed to LHBs this season). Walker is priced as if he was playing at PNC Park (awful hitting environment) and I’m taking advantage of this in cash games tonight. Keep in mind that Walker hits cleanup against RHP, which boosts his DFS value.

Value Plays:

Jeff Baker (MIA) – Baker has been an awesome hitter against southpaws (.366 wOBA, .219 ISO against RHP in the last few seasons) and the hitters around him are better against LHP (Marlins are ranked second in wRC+ against LHP). The Marlins offense is experiencing a huge upgrade in hitting environment (from Marlins Park to Yankee Stadium) and they’re priced as if they were playing at Marlins Park. Opposing pitcher CC Sabathia has allowed a .341 wOBA, 1.35 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012 and we love picking on him at Yankee Stadium (hitting dimensions have expanded his decrease in fastball velocity and has led to big problems with the long ball). Baker is a better option on DraftKings, where he offers more salary relief than Neil Walker.

Robinson Cano (SEA) – If you haven’t noticed, Cano is not the same hitter as he once was when he was a Yankee. Since becoming a member of the Mariners, Cano has hit for a higher GB rate and the power is gone (.139/.089 ISO in the last two seasons after posting ISOs over .200 as a member of the Yankees). We will likely have to evaluate his baseline moving forward (.266 wOBA this season) but there’s some room for things to get a little better. Cano is hitting the ball hard (34 percent hard hit rate) but hasn’t had much luck (.281 BABIP this season, career .322 BABIP). He’s a good buy for cash games on a site like FanDuel (minimum priced).

Additional second base notes: Other second basemen I’d target in tournaments are Jason Kipnis (CLE) (Jason Hammel struggles against LHBs and Kipnis is one of the best offensive second basemen in MLB) and Ian Kinsler (DET) (won’t have the platoon edge but the Tigers offense is experiencing a huge upgrade in hitting environment and Mike Leake is mostly a contact pitcher). If Justin Turner (LAD) garners a top six spot in the Dodgers lineup, he would emerge as a good value play around the industry. Colby Lewis allows too much hard contact and Turner has been a better hitter against RHP (.380 wOBA vs. RHP, .314 wOBA vs. LHP since 2012).

Shortstop

Top Play:

Jose Reyes (TOR) – Reyes is a solid hitter against RHP (.337 wOBA) and despite not being the same speed threat he once was, he still carries 35 SB upside over a full season. The Blue Jays have the highest team total this evening (5.2 implied runs) and Reyes is the leadoff hitter. If you have the salary to spend up at shortstop, Reyes represents the top option (only shortstop that ranks inside our top 20 hitters).

Value Play:

Francisco Lindor (CLE) – Opposing pitcher Jason Hammel has been great this season but he continues to give up hard contact to LHBs. Lindor doesn’t project to be an above average hitter at this point in his career (rookie season) but he’s already hitting second for the Indians. We’re not picking on Hammel much but if you need the salary relief at the shortstop position, Lindor represents the best value after Jose Reyes. Punt opportunities might become available when lineups are released and I’ll make sure to tackle those in our lineups alert system. Since the gap between Reyes and every other shortstop is pretty substantial tonight, he might end up as a core play in cash games (Lindor is ranked outside the top 100).

Additional shortstop notes: Tournament options at the shortstop position include Alcides Escobar (KC) (if not punt opportunities emerge, he becomes cash game playable despite Jimmy Nelson being tough on RHBs; the Royals have LHBs that can cause problems for Nelson and Escobar is the leadoff hitter for this offense), Starlin Castro (CHC) (not a great hitter but Danny Salazar struggles with the long ball and Castro usually garners a top six spot in the Cubs lineup) and Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA) (bottom of the order hitter but he will have the platoon edge against CC Sabathia at Yankee Stadium; he’s a fine throw-in option on a Marlins stack).

Third Base

Top Play:

Josh Donaldson (TOR) – We love to lock in Donaldson when he faces a LHP (one of the best hitters against southpaws in MLB) but he’s also a good hitter against RHP. In 241 PAs this season against RHP, Donaldson has accumulated a .372 wOBA, .231 ISO. Donaldson is hitting the ball very hard (40 percent hard hit rate) and opposing pitcher Bartolo Colon is anything but overpowering (88 MPH fastball, allowing a 41 percent FB rate and 1.32 HR/9 this season). The Blue Jays have an implied team total over 5 runs and third base isn’t very deep tonight. If you’re paying up for two Blue Jays in cash games, Reyes and Donaldson make the most sense (shortstop and third base lacks depth).

Value Play:

Chase Headley (NYY) – Headley is a better DFS value on FanDuel, where he’s minimum priced. On that particular site, Josh Donaldson is too expensive to consider for cash games and Headley’s salary relief is useful (allows you to pay up for a high priced hitter like Giancarlo Stanton). I mentioned earlier that Mat Latos regained fastball velocity during his last start and he threw all of his pitchers harder. We’re still picking on him where it makes sense (catcher and third base on FanDuel). Headley is a switch hitter (good for his DFS value) and he’s the second hitter in the Yankees lineup. He’s the best cost-effective way to get exposure to a 4.5 Yankees run total on sites where he’s priced down considerably.

Additional third base notes: Kris Bryant (CHC) has a slightly depressed price tag around the industry and he has already become an offensive force (.295/.398/.488 triple slash line and a 47 percent FB rate, which indicates that more power is on the way). Danny Salazar has shown reverse splits in his career and he struggles with the long ball. We don’t want to pick on Salazar too much in cash games but third base isn’t very deep and Bryant is an elite DFS option. He’s a next in line option to Josh Donaldson in all formats. Todd Frazier (CIN) has four home runs in his last two games (22 home runs this season) and he’s on pace for a 40 home run campaign. His loft is amazing (career high 49 percent FB rate) and his contact rate is slightly up this season. Opposing pitcher Justin Verlander touched 96 MPH in his first start of the season (could be huge for him moving forward) but he has displayed some reverse splits (especially in the last three seasons). Frazier is a great option for tournaments tonight.

Outfield

Top Play:

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) – Stanton (.437 wOBA, .345 ISO against LHP since 2012) is facing CC Sabathia (.341 wOBA, 1.35 HR/9 allowd to RHBs in the last three seasons) at Yankee Stadium. It’s pretty straightforward here: if you’re spending up for one hitter tonight (regardless of position), Stanton is the option you want across all formats. Roster construction might make it difficult to roster Stanton in cash games (pitchers are a higher priority tonight and as of right now we don’t have enough punt opportunities) but this might be a plausible route once lineups are released and punts become available.

Next in line:

Jose Bautista (TOR) (Bautista is an elite tournament option this evening facing Bartolo Colon, who struggles with the long ball, at Rogers Centre; tier one starting pitchers are a higher priority in cash games and paying up for two outfielders in cash games is probably not EV+ tonight)

Value Plays:

Joc Pederson (LAD) – Pederson is simply too cheap around the industry, particularly on DraftKings ($3,800). In 218 major league PAs against RHP, Joc has accumulated an elite .400 wOBA and a monstrous .301 ISO. Colby Lewis is playing away from his home park tonight (might help him a bit) but he allows too much hard contact, particularly home runs (1.21 HR/9 allowed to LHBs since 2012). When Pederson makes contact, it’s usually hard (42 percent hard hit rate) so this is a good matchup for Pederson’s strengths. While Stanton is expensive around the industry (tougher to play in cash games), Pederson ranks inside our top ten hitters and his price point isn’t reflective of this at all. If teammate Andre Ethier is in the lineup and garners a solid lineup spot, he would emerge as a good salary relief option.

Gregory Polanco (PIT) – Polanco hasn’t been the hitter we thought he would become right off the bat (.316 wOBA, .122 ISO against RHP) but he’s a speed threat (40 SB upside over a full season) and that has helped salvage his DFS value. He draws a favorable matchup today against Jeff Samardzija (solid pitcher but he continues to struggle against LHBs) at U.S. Cellular Field. Polanco’s price tag is favorable around the industry and he’s the best cost-effective way to get exposure to this Pirates offense tonight (likely the best way to go since Samardzija isn’t someone we want to pick on a lot and we prefer to do so with options that are underpriced).

Marcell Ozuna (MIA) – Ozuna usually hits inside the top five against LHP and he’s a good hitter against southpaws (.362 wOBA, .191 ISO against LHP in the last few seasons). I’ve already covered CC Sabathia‘s struggles against RHP (loss of velocity has led to harder batted ball data, particularly the long ball) and we’re targeting this Marlins offense at Yankee Stadium despite the weird low total (3.8 implied runs). Ozuna is a pretty inexpensive way to get exposure to a Marlins offense that crushes LHP (ranked second in wRC+ against LHP).

Additional outfield notes: Other cash game options that I’m targeting around the industry are (in order of preference): Chris Colabello (TOR) (awesome cost-effective option since he gives you cheap exposure to a Blue Jays offense with the highest implied run total on this slate), Brett Gardner (NYY) (too cheap on DraftKings and despite Mat Latos regaining some much needed velocity, Gardner has nice power upside at Yankee Stadium and he’s a solid speed threat), Yasiel Puig (LAD) (depressed price tag on DraftKings) Anthony Gose (DET) (he’s the best way to get exposure to the Tigers offense since his price tag is friendly; he will be the leadoff hitter for the Tigers and he will face Mike Leake at Great American Ball Park) and Curtis Granderson (NYM) (will have the platoon edge against R.A. Dickey, who struggles with the long ball). I wouldn’t go crazy stacking NYY in cash games but if you need salary relief and you can’t afford Brett Gardner, Garrett Jones (NYY) is an inexpensive way of getting exposure to the Yankees offense while also saving some salary for top tier starting pichers. For tournaments, I’m targeting J.D. Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes (DET). They won’t have the platoon edge but they’re facing a contact pitcher at Great American Ball Park. Other tournament options that I like tonight are Brewers outfield (Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra) (Jeremy Guthrie is a contact pitcher and he’s not very good but the Royals defense/bullpen at Kauffman Stadium keeps me away from these outfielders in cash games), Billy Hamilton (CIN) (elite speed threat and James McCann is somewhere around neutral in terms of controlling the running game) and Alex Gordon (KC) (will carry the platoon advantage against Jimmy Nelson, who struggles mightily against LHBs).

Starting Pitcher

Rankings (price not considered):

Tier 1

1) Danny Salazar (CLE)

2) Chris Archer (TB)

3) Zack Greinke (LAD)

4) Gerrit Cole (PIT)

Tier 2

5) Jason Hammel (CHC)

6) Jeff Samardzija (CWS)

Tier 3

7) Clay Buchholz (BOS)

8) Shelby Miller (ATL)

Top Plays:

Danny Salazar (CLE) – Salazar ranks as our top starting pitcher on a slate that features Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. This has a lot to do with strikeouts, which are king in DFS for pitchers. Salazar’s ERA is hovering around 3.50 (his SIERA is around a full run less than his ERA) but his strikeout ability (31 percent K rate, 38 percent chase rate and 14 percent SwStr rate) meshes well with his matchup today. The Cubs are ranked 21st in wRC+ and are striking out 25 percent of the time against RHP. This offense works counts (third ranked BB rate against RHP) but their free swinging nature will help Salazar rack up the Ks. Salazar has a less than stellar 12 percent hard minus soft hit rate but the safety in Ks quells any concerns here. The Cubs have a team total hovering around 3.5 runs and despite Salazar being our number one ranked starter, he’s consistently priced below the other top options on this slate. I’m more likely to deploy him in cash games on a site like DraftKings since the scoring (a strikeout is worth two points) plays in Salazar’s favor.

Chris Archer (TB) – Archer has the second best pitching WAR in MLB (only trails Max Scherzer) and he’s the top ranked pitcher according to SIERA. If this continues (and there’s plenty to believe that the dominance will continue), Archer will be in the Cy Young conversation. His expected ERAs (2.08 FIP/2.26 xFIP) agrees with his current ERA (2.00) and the concerns with LHBs he once had are basically gone. After allowing a wOBA north of .330 to LHBs in his career, Archer has limited LHBs to a .223 wOBA this season. Archer’s underlying peripherals (34 percent chase rate, 64 percent F-Strike rate and 13 percent SwStr rate) have lead to a 32 percent K rate and six percent BB rate. He’s getting ahead of batters at an above league average rate, which is important for his valuation moving forward. He’s throwing his fastball less (53 percent) and his deadly slider more (39 percent), which has lead to a healthy increase in his K rate. The Nationals are around a league average offense against RHP so the matchup doesn’t really scare us away. Archer has a good price tag around the industry but with Zack Greinke, Gerrit Cole and Danny Salazar taking the mound, I don’t view him as a “must” play. I wouldn’t deviate away from the first tier of starting pitchers in cash games tonight.

Next in line:

Zack Greinke (LAD) – Greinke and the Dodgers are the top favorites on this slate by a wide margin (-210) and the Rangers have a team total of 2.9 implied runs. Danny Salazar and Chris Archer make more sense on DraftKings where their strikeout abilities create a gap but on FanDuel, Greinke will likely end up being my top cash game option. The Rangers run a LH heavy offense (at least six) but Greinke has been very good against LHBs (.299 wOBA allowed to LHBs since 2012) so that won’t stop me from rostering him in cash games tonight. Greinke’s K rate (22 percent) will likely see a boost moving forward (35 percent chase rate, 64 percent F-Strike rate and 11.2 SwStr rate) and he’s allowing a hard minus soft hit rate of six percent (very good). This isn’t reflecting in his price tag on most sites. His expected ERAs point toward some level of regression moving forward but a matchup against a team facing a negative park shift that’s striking out 20 percent of the time against RHP quells some of these concerns.

Gerrit Cole (PIT) – While Cole’s K rate is on the rise (28 percent K rate this season after posting K rates of 21 and 24 percent in the last two seasons), his GB rate is elite (52 percent) and his hard minus soft hit rate stands at seven percent. In other words, he has become an elite starting pitcher (run prevention is great, expected ERAs are in agreement, K rate and BB rate are well above average and the contact he does allow is on the ground and it’s not hard). He draws a favorable matchup against a White Sox offense that’s ranked 26th in wRC+ and are striking out 20 percent of the time against RHP. The environment isn’t good (U.S. Cellular Field) but the contact he allows is on the ground and it’s not hard for the most part. Cole and the White Sox aren’t big favorites (-135) so I view him as a better cash game option on a site like DraftKings (behind Salazar and Archer).

Additional starting pitcher notes: As I’ve previously mentioned, I won’t be using any pitcher in cash games outside of the first tier of starting pitchers tonight. Even for tournaments it seems like the best route is to pair different combinations of tier one starting pitchers. The high expected offenses (Colorado, Houston, Orioles, Angels and Diamondbacks) aren’t available this evening and there’s more salary available to spend on starting pitching. If you’re looking for secondary options, Jeff Samardzija (CWS) is cash game viable on multiple starting pitcher sites and Jason Hammel (CHC) is a viable tournament option around the industry. While Samardzija has the better matchup (Pirates are ranked 18th in wRC+ against RHP), Hammel has been the better pitcher (striking out one batter per inning to go a long with a puny four percent BB rate and the above league average F-Strike rate has allowed him to deploy his slider more and hence his SwStr rate and K rate have received a boost). Secondary tournament options include Clay Buchholz (BOS) and Shelby Miller (ATL). I wouldn’t consider them for cash games since their matchups aren’t great for strikeout purposes. They’re fine options to target for multi-entry tournaments.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (help@dailyroto.com) if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

1) Toronto Blue Jays

2) Los Angeles Dodgers

3) Miami Marlins

4) New York Yankees

These four offenses represent the core of our analysis for offensive purposes. The Yankees are our fourth ranked offense in cash games and I believe that’s the best “spot” for them. While Mat Latos looks like he has regained velocity in all of his pitches, the short porch at Yankee Stadium won’t provide much help for him today. They’re a fine offense to mini-stack in cash games and you can deploy as a full stack on a multi-entry tournament and hope that the bombers come out swinging.

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) Detroit Tigers

2) Kansas City Royals

3) Pittsburgh Pirates

4) Milwaukee Brewers

5) Cleveland Indians

6) New York Mets

The Tigers are great tournament options tonight. Their implied run total doesn’t look great (3.9 runs) and Mike Leake is certainly not an awful pitcher but he’s a contact pitcher and Great American Ball Park should help this Tigers offense.

The Royals and Brewers have intrigue in multi-entry tournaments due to their matchups (Jimmy Nelson and Jeremy Guthrie).

The Pirates are facing a pretty solid pitcher in Jeff Samardzija but U.S. Cellular Field is a huge upgrade over PNC Park and Samardzija hasn’t been the same pitcher this season (lower K rate has led to a higher LD and FB rates). I don’t mind mini-stacking this offense in tournaments (White Sox bullpen is one of the worst in MLB)

The Indians don’t have a great matchup on paper (Jason Hammel is a good pitcher) but Hammel struggles against LHBs. This Indians offense is full of LHBs so there’s some tournament appeal here.

The Mets aren’t a very good offense but they will face a pitcher who struggles with the long ball at Rogers Centre. Despite the good matchup and elite hitting environment, the Mets will likely have low ownership in tournaments.

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.

MIA at NYY 7:05: A 20-30% chance of a delay after 8-9PM due to a thunderstorm. Like other games so far, not too worried about this one. Temps near 70 falling into the mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind southeast 3-6 mph. The wind is a 5.

TB at WSH 7:05: Quite a few showers and thunderstorms around. Scenarios: little chance of a cancellation (~10%) because it is not a solid shield of rain; they play through the game because a thunderstorm never sets up over them and only see some showers (50%), a delay occurs at some point in the game (30%); there are multiple delays (20%). Temps in the low 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 6-12 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.

NYM at TOR 7:07: Retractable roof. A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms around so the roof will likely be closed.

CHC at CLE 7:10: A 20-30% chance of a delay because of scattered thunderstorms. Best case scenario: no delay (40-60%). Worst case, a heavy thunderstorm causes a cancellation (<10%). Temps in the mid to upper 70s falling into the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind southwest 9-18 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7.

BOS at ATL 7:10: A 10-20% chance of a delay because of a thunderstorm. <10% chance of a cancellation. Most likely scenario: they are able to play the game without any delays. temps in the upper 80s falling  to near 80. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 4-8 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.

DET at CIN 7:10: This looks to be the most worrisome game today/tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Scenarios: this may become a steady rain at times and the rain/thunder looks to be around before the start of the game and last throughout it. So, chance of a cancellation 20-30%, chance of a delay at some point 60-70%, chance of multiple delays is 30%. Because of the nature of thunderstorms, this game is not completely off the board but is one to monitor through the day. Temps in the low 80s falling into the mid 70s. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 7-14 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.

PIT at CHW 8:10: Dry. Temps in the low 70s falling into the mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind north-northeast 8-16 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7 becoming a 6.

MIL at KC 8:10: The models show it dry by this evening. This is after some of the former Tropical Storm Bill’s moisture causes thunderstorms today. The risk is that these thunderstorms can cause some flooding and/or are slower moving out of the region. Something to watch but not too likely in my opinion (10-20% chance of a delayed start, very little threat of a cancellation or multiple delays). Temps in the mid to upper 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind  northeast 7-14 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 4.

SF at SEA 10:10: Retractable roof. A 10-20% chance of a shower so the roof should be open. Temps in the upper 70s falling to near 70. Air density is a 7. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is a 6.

TEX at LAD 10:10: Dry. Temps near 70 falling into the mid 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

MLB Daily Analysis

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