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June 19 MLB DFS: Spice up your Father’s Day
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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June 19 MLB DFS: Spice up your Father’s Day

00:51 Content Schedule for Sunday
001:54
 Starting Pitchers
08:29 Catchers
11:56 First Base
14:48 Second Base
17:54 Shortstop
19:44 Third Base
23:03 Outfield
27:39 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

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June 19 MLB DFS Pro Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

2) Kenta Maeda (LAD)

3) Jacob deGrom (NYM)

Tier Two

4) Gio Gonzalez (WAS)

5) Archie Bradley (ARZ)

6) David Price (BOS)

7) Drew Pomeranz (SD)

Tier Three

8) Julio Teheran (ATL)

9) Kyle Hendricks (CHC)

10) Nathan Eovaldi (NYY)

Although both sites are splitting Sunday’s games into two slates, we’ve included all games in our Pro Tip rankings in order to help those playing both slates.

The early slates on both sites contain two starters in our top tier of options: Carlos Carrasco (CLE) and Jacob deGrom (NYM). After some early season velocity concerns, both starters have rebounded in recent outings and have favorable matchups on Sunday. Carrasco gets a White Sox offense that ranks 26th in wRC+ against RHP, is getting a negative park shift, and possesses a league average K Rate against RHP. The White Sox opened with a healthy 3.6 implied run total but the game total quickly pushed down to 8.5 leaving their implied team total closer to 3.2-3.3 runs. Jacob deGrom will face the Braves who rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP but don’t strike out as often (19.2 percent, ranks 22nd in K Rate against RHP). The Braves have an implied run total of just 2.8 runs but deGrom ranks slightly behind Carrasco in our SP models due to a slightly lower projected K Rate. deGrom has faced challenging strikeout matchups of late (Pirates back-to-back 19.9% K Rate against RHP) and he’s piled up a K Rate above 30 percent in each of those starts and in four of the last five games. Though the two rank similarly, Carrasco is much cheaper making him a preferred building block around the industry. On DraftKings, it’s very viable to pair the two together.

If you’re going away from the first tier starters, it should be to the value price tag on Archie Bradley (ARZ). Bradley has made four starts since being promoted and he’s generated a K rate above 33 percent in three of those starts. The walks are still an issue and he’s allowing a ton of hard aerial contact which often leads to home runs, but the Phillies are an ideal matchup. The Phillies rank 30th in wRC+ against RHP with the 11th highest K Rate (22.2 percent), the second lowest BB Rate (6.3 percent) and a bottom-half ISO. There is definitely risk here as walks and hard contact can lead to runs getting piled up, but the Phillies’ offense isn’t one that typically exploits either area. Bradley’s price makes him an exceptional tournament target and a viable, though risky, cash game option if you want to load up on bats. The rest of the slate is VERY light on starting pitching options. Nate Eovaldi (NYY) is one with tournament upside against a RH and strikeout prone Twins’ offense that ranks 23rd in wRC+ against RHP. Eovaldi gets a nice park shift and should have the platoon advantage over the bulk of the lineup. We like him more as a tournament play on DraftKings where the price tag is well below Archie Bradley.

Catcher Rankings

1) Victor Martinez (DET) – where eligible

2) Stephen Vogt (OAK)

3) Evan Gattis (HOU) – if top five

4) Buster Posey (SF)

5) J.T. Realmuto (MIA) – if leadoff or cleanup

6) Brian McCann (NYY)

As is usually the case on Sundays, the catcher position has questionable depth that is further weakened by many catchers resting. On the main slates on both sites, your options are relatively limited and very lineup dependent. Victor Martinez (DET) is our top overall option and he’s relatively cheap ($2,900) on FanDuel. Chris Young is a tricky starter to pick on because of the Royals’ strong outfield defense and good bullpen behind him but he’s allowed a ridiculous .516 wOBA and 51.5 hard hit rate to LHBs this season. Evan Gattis (HOU) is the primary alternative with catcher eligibility around the industry, but he’s been hitting very low in the order of late which would make him an uninspiring, though viable, option. Gattis has nice power against LHP (.204 ISO since 2015) and in the past has earned strong lineup spots. The other viable early game alternatives are largely overpriced on DraftKings. Brian McCann‘s (NYY) value always takes a hit away from Yankee Stadium and it’s more pronounced in Minnesota where LH power goes to die. Ervin Santana is a plus matchup, but McCann is generally overpriced. The Diamondbacks catching situation, likely Chris Herrmann (ARZ), is a favorable target but the price on DraftKings is ridiculous. As a result, if Gattis isn’t in a good lineup spot or isn’t in the lineup, we’d look to a pure punt.

First Base Rankings

1) Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ)

2) David Ortiz (BOS)

3) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

4) Chris Davis (BAL)

5) Miguel Cabrera (DET)

6) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

7) Joey Votto (CIN)

8) Albert Pujols (LAA)

9) Brandon Belt (SF)

10) Mike Napoli (CLE)

Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ) is our top overall hitter for the main slate. Since the start of the 2015 season, Goldschmidt has posted a .402 wOBA and .236 ISO against RHP. Zach Eflin was tattooed in his major league debut and his minor league track record isn’t particularly impressive. Goldschmidt is expensive on both sites but on DraftKings relative to his teammates he looks cheap and on FanDuel he’s still grading out as our best value at the position. If you’re not spending up for Goldschmidt, Chris Davis (BAL), Miguel Cabrera (DET), and Joey Votto (CIN) are the primary alternatives. Mike Napoli (CLE) is also a viable alternative where the price is way down. Cabrera is the only hitter of that group without the platoon advantage and Votto is the only one of the group on a team with an implied run total below 4.5 runs.

Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve (HOU)

2) Neil Walker (NYM)

3) Jean Segura (ARZ)

4) Rougned Odor (TEX) – if Top Five

5) Ian Kinsler (DET)

6) Jed Lowrie (OAK) – if third

7) Ben Zobrist (CHC)

8) Steve Pearce (TB) – where eligible

9) Chase Utley (LAD)

10) Daniel Murphy (WAS)

The second base position is very straight forward for Sunday’s slate as our top two options are both in the main slate and they’re come at differing price points. Jose Altuve (HOU) gets a lefty (.432 wOBA, .184 ISO against LHP since start of 2015) and the Astros have an implied run total approaching five runs. As a team, they’re set up better to combat LHP and Brandon Finnegan has allowed just a .310 wOBA but a .171 ISO since the start of 2015 to RHBs. If you’re not paying all the way up for Altuve, you’re likely taking the value route with Neil Walker (NYM) or Jean Segura (ARZ). Walker is generally more affordable and has historically been the better hitter against RHP (.345 wOBA, .179 ISO since start of 2015). Julio Teheran has been smashed by lefties for most of his career but a slightly lower arm slot is really exacerbating the issue this season (.322 wOBA, 39.8 hard hit rate, 16.9 K Rate, 11.3 BB Rate). Segura hasn’t historically been as effective against RHP but has done very well this season (.352 wOBA, .146 ISO) and his team has the higher implied run total and on the road as a leadoff hitter he has a higher expected plate appearances. With the Mets’ offense a little beat up he’s a viable alternative where priced similarly to Walker. On DraftKings, Segura is priced like Altuve which makes him a tournament only target. Also on DraftKings, Danny Worth (HOU) remains a viable pure punt target, though we’re most likely to use him if he’s hitting second.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Carlos Correa (HOU)

2) Corey Seager (LAD)

3) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

4) Aledmys Diaz (STL) – if second

5) Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM)

Shortstop is always a narrow list of options as few shortstops are offensive threats and fewer come with strong lineup spots. The five ranked above all fit that criterion. Carlos Correa (HOU) is our top ranked shortstop as he’s amassed a .346 wOBA and .208 ISO against LHP as a big leaguer and he hits cleanup for one of offenses with an implied team total at or above five runs on this slate. If you’re not paying up for Correa, the options are a bit more site specific. Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) is affordable on both sites, but we wouldn’t necessarily call him “cheap”. Cabrera owns a solid .325 wOBA and .165 ISO against RHP since the start of 2015. He’s your best mid-tier target. If salary relief is the goal, Freddy Galvis (PHI) represents a pure punt target on FanDuel while Danny Worth (HOU) is available on DraftKings.

Third Base Rankings

1) Kris Bryant (CHC)

2) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

3) Jake Lamb (ARZ)

4) Nolan Arenado (COL)

5) Alex Rodriguez (NYY)

6) Danny Valencia (OAK)

7) Maikel Franco (PHI)

8) Justin Turner (LAD)

9) Matt Carpenter (STL)

10) Evan Longoria (TB)

Third base is a tricky position on the main slate. Josh Donaldson (TOR) is in a fair matchup though Chris Tillman has made dramatic improvements this season, but Donaldson is extremely expensive. Jake Lamb (ARZ) was the first third basemen we thought of on this slate as he draws a below average RHP and likely a very good lineup spot, but the price tag on DraftKings is appropriately elevated and even on FanDuel ($3,600) the price tag is only slightly discounted. As a result, this isn’t a bad place to search for value. Maikel Franco (PHI) is popping in our models as a good value but he’s been struggling around an injury and Archie Bradley appears to have taken a small step forward of late. Alex Rodriguez (NYY) is fairly priced and a fine option on both sites. Danny Worth (HOU) is viable as a punt target on FanDuel, while teammate Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) is priced down and carries third base eligibility on DraftKings.

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)

3) George Springer (HOU)

4) Rajai Davis (CLE)

5) Kris Bryant (CHC) – where eligible

6) Bryce Harper (WAS)

7) Michael Conforto (NYM)

8) Mookie Betts (BOS)

9) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

10) Gregory Polanco (PIT)

11) Dexter Fowler (CHC) – health risk

12) Curtis Granderson (NYM)

13) Jason Heyward (CHC)

14) Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY)

15) Brett Gardner (NYY)

16) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

17) Odubel Herrera (PHI)

18) Michael Saunders (TOR)

19) Coco Crisp (OAK)

20) Matt Holliday (STL)

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) is our top ranked outfielder on the early slate. His recent struggles are well documented but he recorded three hits against RHP on Saturday and his strikeout rate is slowly coming down over a rolling five game period. Against a lefty, this is not a bad time to get back in on Stanton where the prices are down. This is more the case on FanDuel ($3,300) than DraftKings ($4,700). George Springer‘s (HOU) current performance and baselines are a little more stable, so he represents a better “spend” if spending up in the outfield. Fortunately, Springer is pretty cheap on DraftKings ($4,200) making him one of our top values. Michael Conforto (NYM) grades out as an elite value play industry wide, but admittedly the model isn’t aware of his wrist issues or recent slump (-0.5 hard hit rate over last two weeks). If you’d like to prioritize teammate Curtis Granderson (NYM) over him or similarly priced options like Matt Holliday (STL) or Nomar Mazara (TEX) over Conforto, we wouldn’t argue it. On FanDuel, the Diamondbacks’ outfield is very cheap. David Peralta (ARZ) has been battling back issues and if he’s out of the lineup Peter O’Brien (ARZ) will likely hit fifth. Both are very cheap ways to get exposure to an offense we’re high on as a whole. Ezequiel Carrera (TOR) and Franklin Gutierrez (SEA) are cheaper options no DraftKings that can offer some salary relief.

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Los Angeles Angels

2) Boston Red Sox

3) Houston Astros

4) Arizona Diamondbacks

5) Toronto Blue Jays

6) New York Yankees

7) Los Angeles Dodgers

8) Detroit Tigers

9) Oakland Athletics

10) Chicago Cubs

We have an unusual slate with a bunch of teams grouped together near the top of our stack rankings. As a result, there shouldn’t really be a “chalk” stack on Sunday’s slate and actual lineups will shift preferences around a bit. The Angels are an interesting option at the top since they’re in a weak offensive environment but facing the weakest starter on the slate in Eric Surkamp who has walked more batters than he’s struck out and allowed 1.86 HR/9 in his 29 innings this season. The Angels’ offense is usually pretty concentrated in Pujols-Trout-Cron/Marte so when they have elevated run totals you know which players to invest in.

The Diamondbacks, Astros, and Red Sox are all in plus hitting environments against potentially weak starters. Taijuan Walker is the best of the group but left last outing early with a foot issue and his velocity was down meaningfully. The Red Sox are the best offense in baseball against RHP and Walker has had some mild reverse splits in his career which makes a largely RH heavy offense a bit more attractive. Zach Eflin was smashed in his first major league outing and while the Diamondbacks aren’t an elite offense against RHP, they do have a lot of power and Eflin isn’t much of a prospect. He had an ERA just shy of 4.00 in AA last season. The Astros get another weaker lefty, which is a situation they’ve largely disappointed owners with the last two days. The combination of positional scarcity and power-speed upside makes them perpetually intriguing in tournaments.

MLB Daily Analysis

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