Two De La Rosa’s Don’t Make a Right
June 19th MLB DFS Picks
Friday’s MLB action is a full 15-game slate, all starting at 7pm Eastern or later, so we have plenty of picks to choose from. We have had an influx of young talent this week with guys like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Francisco Lindor and Kyle Schwarber all being called up over the last week or so. A few of them make for great options coming into tonight’s action. Let’s find out which one of these four I’m targeting plus what other plays are great values on Friday.
*Please note stats are from end of Wednesday’s MLB action.
There’s only one option for me Friday night and it’s Chris Sale. This pick is going to leave me strapped for cash, but as you’ll find out with the rest of my picks, this is certainly an easy option to fit in our lineups. Sale has 10+ strikeouts in five straight starts and in six of his last seven overall. Not surprisingly, in his last five starts he’s been unhittable. He has given up just six earned runs, seven walks and 20 hits during that span. The Rangers are striking out at a 22.7% clip against LHP, good for 11th worst in the MLB.
And the position player picks start with the most recently called up top prospect: Kyle Schwarber. The Cubs lefty is catcher eligible and should be at a cheap price across the industry. He’s facing Phil Hughes, who is struggling to be great in 2015, as he’s sporting a .344 wOBA against LHB this season. In his career, his .322 wOBA against LHB doesn’t look so bad, but Hughes just isn’t clicking right now as evidenced by the large drop in his K rate. Schwarber had a nice 4-5 game with a triple in his first career start on Tuesday and added a homer last night off of Danny Salazar.
You could go with many of the studs at first base tonight, but I’m leaning towards another guy who should be on the cheaper side: Ben Paulsen. He’ll be at home against another young player in Taylor Jungmann, a RHP. Paulsen has a career .381 wOBA against RHP albeit in limited at bats (126). In those at bats, he has nine doubles, one triple and one home run. Not surprisingly, 81 of those at bats have come at home and 12 of those 16 extra base hits have come there as well.
With Rubby De La Rosa on the mound at home, it’s hard not to look at Padres hitters. Staying with the theme of cheaper options who allow me to use Chris Sale, I really think Cory Spangenberg will be worth the money Friday night. De La Rosa has given up a career wOBA of .371 against LHB and he’s been even worse in 2015. This season he’s been really bad against them giving up a .423 wOBA. Spangenberg has hit in the bottom third of the lineup most of this past week, but Friday night I wouldn’t be surprised to see him jump up to the two-hole, which would make him an even better option.
Aramis Ramirez has a great matchup Friday night, where he’ll face Jorge De La Rosa. He’s a southpaw that has given up a .347 wOBA to RHB in his career. On the other side of things, Ramirez has a career .388 wOBA against LHP. De La Rosa has been better against RHB, and Ramirez worse against LHP this season, but that’s primarily a small sample size issue that hopefully results in reduced ownership. With all of that being said, Aramis Ramirez is my pick for #hrofthenight.
Carlos Correa is another top prospect I like tonight, as he’ll face a LHP in Roenis Elias. This matchup for the switch-hitter is why I think he’s a great option. Although he’ll be at a tough park to hit, I love his .498 wOBA and .381 in limited at bats this season. He has struck out just three times in 21 at bats against LHP compared to his seven strikeouts in 18 at bats against RHP.
When it comes to outfielders, let’s talk about them in groups. I really like Padres hitters against Rubby De La Rosa Friday and it continues in the outfield. Even though he’s not terrible against RHB, he’ll be given a tough lineup to face with guys like Will Venable, Justin Upton and Matt Kemp all likely in the lineup. Venable holds the platoon advantage and will likely hit in a great spot, while the other two are just better players.
Orioles outfielders should be in play against Marco Estrada especially with the run they’re on right now. They have scored 25 runs and hit 10 home runs in their last two games (note: stats prior to Thursday’s games) and that could easily continue with Estrada’s high HR/9 rate (1.40). His numbers are pretty similar against both RHB/LHB, but I think Chris Parmelee‘s current pace, price and lineup position are a great start. You should obviously also consider Travis Snider or David Lough as long as they’re hitting in the top 5-6 in the order.