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June 2 MLB DFS: Go To Jerad’s
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June 2 MLB DFS: Go To Jerad’s

01:20 Starting Pitchers
08:19 Catchers
09:46 First Base
12:18 Second Base
15:18 Shortstop
17:35 Third Base
20:00 Outfield
27:51 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

premium_access_now  HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | WELL-HIT RATINGS

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June 2 MLB DFS Pro Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

2) Jerad Eickhoff (PHI)

Tier Two

3) Juan Nicasio (PIT)

4) Wade Miley (SEA)

Tier Three

5) Matt Moore (TB)

6) Michael Pineda (NYY)

7) Wei-Yin Chen (MIA)

Tier Four

8) Rick Porcello (BOS)

9) Kyle Gibson (MIN)

10) Chase Anderson (MIL)

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) is our top starting pitcher, but a pitch count of 80 in his first start back from the DL makes him a tough spend at $10k-plus on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Throw in yet another Coors Field day where we’re prime on getting those bats in, and we’ll look to go the value route.

Jerad Eickhoff (PHI) is the best industry wide value, particularly on DraftKings. He’s not overly dominant, but a somewhat neutral GB rate to go with a solid 4.17 K/BB ratio makes him a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. The matchup is what provides the upside as the Brewers have a 27.0 K percentage against RHP, a very high mark that leads MLB. There are some wide splits for Eickhoff so we’ll be paying close attention to the makeup of the Brewers lineup.

Both Juan Nicasio (PIT) and Wade Miley (SEA) are fine cash game options in the second tier. Nicasio is particularly the better value at a very cheap price tag on DraftKings, which meshes well with forcing in Coors exposure. His velocity has been up and down this season but a bit more consistent on the higher end recently. When the velocity is good and he’s missing bats, he can be dangerous given the stellar -3.7 hard minus soft hit rate. He’s on the road but in a pitcher friendly atmosphere facing a Marlins team that can be heavily right handed (Nicasio has wide splits). Miley is allowing a lot of hard hit contact, which is never good, but it’s mitigated by facing a really bad Padres team. They’re a bit more neutral in wRC+ against LHP but have a very high 26.6 K rate and are pegged with a low implied team total of 3.4 (second lowest).

The third tier is led off by Matt Moore (TB) and Michael Pineda (NYY), two guys that have given us plenty of fits this season. Each has upside worthy of using in tournaments, especially given the lack of obvious, dominant pitching up top. Moore faces a Twins team team without Miguel Sano, while Pineda gets a powerful but very strikeout prone, heavily right handed Tigers lineups. While the xFIP certainly does not tell the story with these two (elevated hard hit rates), they each project to be better moving forward from a run prevention standpoint.

Catcher Rankings

1) Victor Martinez (DET) (where eligible)

2) Derek Norris (SD)

3) Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)

4) Dustin Garneau (COL)

5) Francisco Cervelli (PIT)

it’s a good position to punt as it’s scarce. Only Victor Martinez (DET) rates as a positive value (FD eligible only), and his price tag doesn’t really mesh with our preferred route of roster construction. As a result, we’ll look to go cheap here with the primary options being Derek Norris (SD) (career .364 wOBA, .193 ISO against LHP; Wade Miley is allowing a 33.2 hard hit rate) and Francisco Cervelli (PIT) (likely hitting fifth in the middle of a deep Pirates lineup against LHP).

First Base Rankings

1) Joey Votto (CIN)

2) David Ortiz (BOS)

3) Chris Davis (BAL)

4) Miguel Cabrera (DET)

5) Mark Reynolds (COL)

A lot of times our first base rankings are clustered, but there are small clear gaps between each of the ranked options with the exception of Ortiz/Davis who are virtually tied in our model. Our emphasis yet again is to try and pay up for Joey Votto (CIN) who is our top ranked hitter at any position. Aside from the obvious (Reds have an implied run total over 5 in Coors), opposing pitcher Eddie Butler has been horrendous against LHBs for his career (.432 wOBA, .265 ISO). If you can’t afford Votto, dropping down to Chris Davis‘ (BAL) elite power is a viable alternative as Rick Porcello has always struggled with LHBs and has had elevated hard minus soft hit rates and a reduction in GB rates since joining the Red Sox.

Second Base Rankings

1) DJ LeMahieu (COL)

2) Robinson Cano (SEA)

3) Brian Dozier (MIN)

4) Derek Dietrich (MIA)

5) Jason Kipnis (CLE)

DJ LeMahieu (COL) is the top option at the position as we once again get a ridiculous team total for the Rockies (6.3 at the moment) due to a combination of Coors, Alfredo Simon‘s ineptitude (9.60 ERA in 40.1 IP is truly remarkable), and the worst bullpen in the league by a good margin. Following him, the 2-5 ranked second baseman are clustered extremely tight in our model, and we’re looking to the cheaper power upside of either Brian Dozier (MIN) or Derek Dietrich (MIA). Ideally, though, we’d like to save money here with Starlin Castro (NYY) if he’s given a top five lineup spot. Opposing pitcher Matt Boyd has been absolutely horrific against RHBs in his short career (210 batters faced, .381 wOBA, .258 ISO).

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Zack Cozart (CIN)

3) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

4) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

5) Trevor Story (COL)

We’re pretty gung ho about paying up for the elite COL bats, which means we’ll once again look for cap relief up the middle. The best option to get it from would be Jordy Mercer (PIT), who quite frankly is a pretty bad hitter. However, he’s cheap and possibly leading off for a deep Pirates lineup while holding the platoon edge against Wei-Yin Chen, who should allow Mercer at least some semblance of power upside. If you’re paying up at the position, Manny Machado (BAL) is the clear cut option but does fall outside our top 10 overall hitters. He’s an elite same handed hitter and this game has the highest non-Coors total.

Third Base Rankings

1) Nolan Arenado (COL)

2) Manny Machado (BAL) (where eligible)

3) Maikel Franco (PHI)

4) Alex Rodriguez (NYY)

5) Pedro Alvarez (BAL)

Nolan Arenado (COL) tops our third base options by a huge margin and is our third ranked hitter overall. We’re once again striving to fit him into all lineups given the elite power upside against Alfredo Simon who has allowed 2.01 HR/9 and is backed up by a bullpen that allows the most HR/9 in the league. On FanDuel you have to be a bit more choosy about where you’re spending up so it’s at least reasonable to consider an underpriced Maikel Franco (PHI) as a cap relief option as Chase Anderson has flashed some extreme reverse splits throughout his career, allowing a .352 wOBA and whopping .286 ISO. We really like Alex Rodriguez (NYY) in tournaments given the aforementioned splits and power issues surrounding Matt Boyd (32.9 GB rate, 15.0 hard minus soft hit rate).

Outfield Rankings

1) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

2) Charlie Blackmon (COL)

3) Billy Hamilton (CIN)

4) Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

5) Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (if hitting cleanup)

6) Mookie Betts (BOS)

7) JD Martinez (DET)

8) Starling Marte (PIT)

9) Christian Yelich (MIA)

10) Ryan Braun (MIL)

11) Jay Bruce (CIN)

12) Nelson Curz (SEA)

13) Gerardo Parra (COL)

14) Odubel Herrera (PHI)

15) Hyun Soo Kim (BAL)

It’s no surprise that the top of our outfield rankings are flooded with Coors Field players. Carlos Gonzalez (COL) (second ranked hitter overall), Charlie Blackmon (COL) (fourth), and Billy Hamilton (CIN) (seventh) are the primary reasons we’re looking to punt one or two of the MI positions despite not spending much on starting pitching. We’re extremely high on all three. However, if you can’t afford all three, you may simply need to go cheap in that final outfield spot. Hyun Soo Kim (BAL) is a strong value on both sites. We’ve been impressed with his plate discipline, and he’ll hit second with the platoon edge against Rick Porcello. Robbie Grossman (MIN) is the bare minimum on DraftKings where the wider salary spread makes his cap relief valuable. He hit second yesterday and has been somewhere in the top six all week long. Alternative mid-tier options include Andrew McCutchen (PIT) (elite splits against LHP), Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (just way too cheap on FanDuel), and Adam Jones (BAL) (underpriced given skills and team total). If Adam Duvall (CIN) hits cleanup, he’s an elite tournament option given the power peripherals (45.5 FB rate, 38.2 hard hit rate).

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

Tier Two

2) Cincinnati Reds

Tier Three

3) Boston Red Sox

Tier Four

4) New York Yankees

The Coors Field options are obvious, and we hit on the Yankees power upside against Matt Boyd. The one team we didn’t touch on much yet is the Boston Red Sox as none of their players individually rate as strong values since they’ve all gotten so expensive. However, Ubaldo Jimenez is volatile, the Red Sox possess the highest non-Coors implied run total in hitter friendly Camden Yards, and most importantly this offense is disgusting (134 wRC+ against RHP is by far the best in MLB).

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