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June 23 MLB DFS: We Wood Take the Discount
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Welcome to June 23 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 23 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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June 23 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
08:51 Catcher
10:52 First Base
14:28 Second Base
17:11 Third Base
20:23 Shortstop
23:15 Outfield
29:02 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

June 23 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

After a few days without many clear cut starting pitcher options, the options appear limitless on Friday. Stephen Strasburg (WAS), Chris Archer (TB), and Alex Wood (LAD) represent our first tier of starting pitching options. All three have solid matchups. Wood gets the Rockies with a big park downgrade in Los Angeles. The Rockies rank 16th in wRC+ against LHP with an above average K Rate (23.6). Wood is a pretty splits neutral starter so the balance in the Rockies lineup isn’t a deterrent. His price tag is below that of the other aces on both sites which makes him the strongest value of the bunch. Archer gets a depleted Orioles’ offense with a park downgrade for their primary weapon (power). On FanDuel, Archer’s price tag is soft enough to consider as a pivot from the cheaper Alex Wood. Archer’s got a bit higher ceiling for his ability to work deeper into games. Strasburg is consistently expensive on both sites. The Reds’ offense has out-performed expectations against RHP (10th in wRC+) and they strikeout at a below league average clip. The price tag makes Strasburg a relatively unappealing target compared to Wood and Archer in this tier.

Yu Darvish (TEX) and Michael Fulmer (DET) represent the next mini-tier. Fulmer’s price tag varies wildly between the two sites. On DraftKings at $8,300, he’s a very solid mid-tier starter option. Fulmer is getting a league bump and facing the dreadful Padres’ offense that ranks 26th in wRC+ against RHP with the league’s highest K Rate (25.7). Darvish is priced too closely to Wood and has a difficult matchup with the Yankees’ offense. He’s viable as a low-owned GPP pivot, but the depth of pitching options on this slate makes him largely unnecessary.

The next tier down carries more high-value mid-tier targets for SP2 on DraftKings. Trevor Bauer (CLE) is a bit more expensive than the last time we deployed him aggressively against Minnesota, but he’s still cheap on DraftKings at $7,100. The implied totals for Bauer will never be comforting (4.3 this time out) but he’s a big favorite (-185) and has struck out six or more in six of his last nine starts. Bauer’s posted a 27.6 percent K Rate this season and you simply don’t often get K Rates of this magnitude at these prices. John Lackey (CHC) and Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) are the two other affordable strikeout pitchers in this tier. Lackey gets the benefit of pitching in a controlled environment in Miami against a below average offense against RHP (19th in wRC+). Foltynewicz has the volatile matchup with the Brewers (15th in wRC+ but third highest K Rate against RHP) but if the forecast clears up the wind is supposed to be blowing in from RF possibly helping mitigate some of his power problems with LHBs.

The groups above, consisting of eight pitchers, represent our primary targets in cash games and tournaments. On DraftKings, there are different price points to play with based on the offense you’d like to build but our primary cash game targets are: Alex Wood, Michael Fulmer, and Trevor Bauer. On FanDuel, the decision is largely between Chris Archer and Alex Wood for us.

Jimmy Nelson (MIL), Jameson Taillon (PIT), Luis Perdomo (SD), and Jharel Cotton (OAK) are periphery GPP plays, but we’re really focused primarily on the starters above.

Catcher

Alex Avila (DET) is the top projected scorer at the catcher position, followed closely in projection by Yan Gomes (CLE). Of the two, we prefer the slightly cheaper Gomes in cash games as long as we get him in a decent lineup spot (better than seventh, where he was last night) and the weather cooperates. He’ll have the platoon edge vs. Adalberto Mejia, who’s gotten shelled this season (below average GB rate, allows plenty of hard contact).

If the weather in Cleveland doesn’t cooperate, going up to Avila is fine though the Tigers are in a spacious NL Park. On FD, Willson Contreras (CHC) is a more direct alternative to Gomes since he’s priced the same. Contreras’ HHR over the L15 is sitting at 31.4% and he’s been hitting in great lineup spots of late.

Cameron Rupp (PHI) is a viable cheap target on both sites as he’ll have the platoon edge vs. Patrick Corbin in Chase Field. We prefer him on FD since he’s priced like a punt on that site ($2,200).

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) represents the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. It’s a R/R matchup for Goldy, but he’s at home facing rookie Mark Leiter Jr. The latter has more walks (14) than strikeouts (12) out of the bullpen, and behind him is a below average pen. It’s a great spot for Arizona’s offense. Goldy comes with a high price tag on both sites, but he’s an easy fit on DK.

Eric Thames (MIL) is our top value at the position on FD where he’s just $3,400. He’s $1,400 cheaper than Goldy on that site, and we’re more than willing to take the savings in cash games. Thames will hit in hitter friendly SunTrust park against Mike Foltynewicz, who struggles mightily with lefty bats (.374 wOBA, .213 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2015). If you wanted to play both Thames and Goldy, it’s possible to do so on DK where Thames also carries OF eligibility.

If you wanted to save more salary at the position on DK, Tommy Joseph (PHI) with the platoon edge against a fly ball prone pitcher in Chase Field, lefty smasher Wilmer Flores (NYM) and Mitch Moreland (BOS) vs. Alex Meyer (very wide splits) fit the bill.  

Yonder Alonso (OAK), Logan Morrison (TB) and Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) are viable upside pieces as part of stacks in tournaments.

Second Base

The second base position is a bit site specific from a cash game perspective. Rougned Odor (TEX) is $3,400 on DK, and he’ll have the platoon edge in Yankee Stadium. He’ll take on Masahiro Tanaka, who’s missing more bats this season but his HR/9 has jumped to 2.47.

Odor is priced more accurately on FD, and that’s where punts like Jed Lowrie (OAK) and Alen Hanson (CWS) are in play. Lowrie is $2,600 and gets contact oriented Mike Pelfrey in a hitters park. Hanson is a leadoff hitter that displayed running upside in the minors (36 SBs this season in AAA, 35 SBs LY).

Robinson Cano (SEA), Daniel Murphy (WSH) and Chad Pinder (OAK) are power upside alternatives to consider in tournaments.

Third Base

Jake Lamb (ARI) is the top projected scorer at third base. Lamb will have the platoon edge in a terrific matchup against rookie Mark Leiter Jr., who’s made 12 appearances this season out of the bullpen (more walks than Ks) and he’s simply a temporary filler for Jerad Eickhoff (placed on DL) in the Phillies’ rotation. Lamb’s price tag on FD ($3,900) is reachable in cash games, but on DK we’re likely looking elsewhere given his efficient price tag on that site.

Wilmer Flores (NYM) is in a bad hitting environment (San Francisco), but his production vs. LHP has been excellent (.399 wOBA, .283 ISO vs. LHP since 2015) and he’ll take on a pitcher that doesn’t miss bats (Ty Blach has generated an 11% K rate). Flores is really cheap on DK ($2,600), which makes him by far the best value at the position. It’s not as necessary on FD, but he’s also $2,600 on that site and a fine drop down if you needed to save salary.

Todd Frazier (CWS) is a fine split the difference alternative around the industry. While he won’t have the platoon edge, that’s not a significant detriment to his value thanks to a matchup against fly baller Jharel Cotton (.228 ISO allowed to RHBs) in Chicago.

Josh Donaldson (TOR) (was scratched yesterday – we’ll have to monitor his status), Evan Longoria (TB), Maikel Franco (PHI) and Travis Shaw (MIL) are viable tournament targets on both sites.

Shortstop

Trea Turner (WSH) and Francisco Lindor (CLE) are the top projected scorers at the shortstop position. They’re priced appropriately on DK, but they’re not difficult fits if you fade the expensive pitchers on that site. $3,600 is a good price for Lindor on FD, but once again the route at SP will determine whether it’s reachable for you. Turner and the Nats offense have a matchup against a rookie SP and a bad Cincy bullpen, and it’s hot in Washington (mid to high 80s temps throughout the game). Turner’s power is down this season, but he’s running a lot (27 SBs already – ZiPS is projecting 23 more for the ROS).

If you wanted to save some salary at the position and use it at other premiere positions, Chad Pinder (OAK) (hitting the ball hard all season – HHR is up to 38.8% over the L15) in a strong matchup against Mike Pelfrey in Chicago represents a viable target. Pinder is our last positive value at the position on DK.

Xander Bogaerts (BOS) (HHR is on the rise – 38.3% over the L15 and the Red Sox have the highest IRT on the slate – 5.8 runs) and Chris Owings (ARI) are usable as part of stacks in tournaments.

Outfield

As usual, plenty of directions to take in the OF on a full slate of games. Bryce Harper (WSH) gets the conversation started as the top projected scorer at the position. He’ll have the platoon edge in a warm environment against rookie Luis Castillo, who was missing bats in the minors this season but hasn’t pitched above AA. The Nationals have an IRT of 5.5 runs, and while Harper isn’t a must at a loaded position, he’s viable in cash games on DK where two mid-tier SPs can open up plenty of offense in this slate.

Eric Thames (MIL) (OF eligibility on DK), Mookie Betts (BOS) and Corey Dickerson (TB) are reachable upside pieces in cash games on DK. Betts has the more difficult matchup against a pitcher that handles RHBs well and misses bats. He’s a better target in tournaments given the matchup, but you’re unlikely to see low ownership here. Dickerson and Thames have the easier matchups. Dickerson isn’t in a good hitting environment, but Ubaldo Jimenez is horrific vs. LHBs (.353 wOBA, .205 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2015) and behind him is a bad bullpen that’s taxed.

The best point per dollar targets in the OF are Matt Joyce (OAK) (platoon edge against Mike Pelfrey, who’s allowed a .368 wOBA and has generated a 12% K rate vs. LHBs since 2015), Mallex Smith (TB) (Ubaldo Jimenez hasn’t figured out how to get LHBs out, and he’s also terrible at holding runners), Jose Bautista (TOR) (no idea why he’s back to $3,800 on DK – looks like he’ll be the Blue Jays’ leadoff hitter for the time being) and David Peralta (ARI) (platoon edge in Chase Field – good price tag on FD). Franklin Gutierrez (LAD) is minimum priced on FD and he’ll have the platoon edge, but the opportunity cost at this position coupled with his PH risk makes it tough to justify him in cash games.

Khris Davis (OAK) power stroke in a better hitting environment against a pitcher that doesn’t miss bats makes him a good tournament target. His $4,100 price tag on DK puts him in the cash game conversation as well (top four OF value on that site). Aaron Altherr (PHI) hits LHP really well and he’s in Chase Field. He’s a viable target in tournaments on both sites.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Washington Nationals

With warm temperatures in Washington, a rookie starter with zero experience above AA starting, a bad bullpen behind him, and cheap pitching on this slate; the Nationals are a great stack to attack in tournaments. The offense is deep and the expensive price tags are mitigated quite a bit by the depth in quality of cheap starting pitching options on both sites.

Tier Two

2) Arizona Diamondbacks

3)Cleveland Indians

4) Texas Rangers

5) Boston Red Sox

Arizona and Cleveland get starters that don’t project to last long in the game and are backed up by weak bullpens in plus hitting environments. They remain strong targets almost nightly. The Rangers power gets a nice park shift for home runs against an opposing starter that is giving them up at an incredible rate (2.47 HR/9). This is a great contrarian spot as the Rangers are one of the few elite offenses on the road (guaranteed ninth inning!) and Tanaka is just good enough they won’t carry much “carryover” GPP ownership as cash game plays.

Tier Three

6) Oakland Athletics

7) Toronto Blue Jays

8) Tampa Bay Rays

9) New York Yankees

10) Milwaukee Brewers

As far as contrarian stacks go, the Astros have a ridiculous average hard hit rate of over 36 percent over the last 15 days. Felix Hernandez was sharp in his rehab outings but the bullpen behind him is below average and the Astros should carry very little ownership simply due to price tags. Oakland and Tampa are other strong contrarian targets on this slate.