Welcome to June 25 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 25 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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June 25 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:38 Starting Pitcher
10:59 First Base
13:28 Second Base
15:43 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
June 25 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
It’s an ugly day at the starting pitcher position. There are no games with an IRT of 4.2 or less, which is indicative of the combination of the quality of pitching available to us and a slew of strong offensive environments. It’s not that the position lacks value, it lacks top tier options regardless of price. Up top, Michael Pineda (NYY) carries the highest projection on both sites as one of three pitchers with a DK projection topping 15 points. As the highest projected starter, he deserves a look for his ceiling in tournaments on DK, but is overpriced for cash games due to the environment (80 degrees with the wind blowing out in Yankee Stadium). The Rangers will K but are fourth in FanGraphs 14-day hard% and top half of the league in ISO against RHP.
Now on FD, Pineda’s price is pretty friendly at $8,900. That puts him in line with some other mid-tier values (within about $1,000) who provide a massive savings on DK.
Those mid-tier values on DK are Julio Teheran (ATL), Josh Tomlin (CLE), Francisco Liriano (TOR), and, to a lesser extent, Tanner Roark (WAS). So, yeah, it’s an ugly group. The cost savings over Pineda is significant, though, and the risk is similar when you account for that cost. Teheran will face a Milwaukee team that is middle of the pack in wRC+ against RHP but strikes out a high 24.6% if the time. As a result, we’re projecting Teheran for around 6 strikeouts. Keep in mind he’s struck out just 12 combined batters over his past four starts and has not struck out more than six in a single start. Can Teheran make good on the K upside the matchup offers? It’s a legitimate question, but we’re hopeful Teheran and his wide splits can if MIL throws out six RHBs as we’re projecting.
Behind Teheran, you’re going very cheap in the $6k range with Tomlin/Liriano/Roark. Liriano has the most K upside of the group. He’s struck out five or more batters in 7 of 11 starts this season, hitting 9-plus on two occasions. The issue with Liriano is the propensity for a quick hook, but this is a pretty tame Royals offense, ranking 27th in wRC+ against LHP.
Tomlin and Roark have the exact same K projections in our model. Both have slightly lower IRTs than Liriano and higher win probabilities. The matchups (Tomlin against MIN, Roark against CIN) are nearly identical as both opposing offenses have similar wRC+ and K% against RHP. With these two, you’re basically hoping to eke out a quality start while devoting a lot of dough to bats.
Sonny Gray (OAK) leads all pitchers on this slate in K% over his last three starts with a 26.3 mark. He’s tournament viable against a White Sox team that struggles against RHP. He’s overpriced for cash games, but worth a look in tournaments on a slate where many of the SP options lack upside.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) is the top projected scorer at the catcher position. He’s pricey, but facing Nick Martinez in Yankee Stadium makes him a viable spend in all formats despite being a poor point per dollar value in our projections (especially on DK).
Josh Phegley (OAK) fits the slate from a cash game perspective. Phegley is really cheap on both sites (full punt price on FD) and he will have the platoon edge vs. Derek Holland in Chicago. There’s some power upside here (.170 ISO vs. LHP since 2015), so we don’t like him only because he’s cheap.
Eric Thames (MIL) is a top four hitter in our projections regardless of position and he’s just $3,400 on FD. On top of that, it’s a great matchup (Julio Teheran has allowed a .364 wOBA and .211 ISO to LHBs since 2015) and awesome ballpark for LH power (SunTrust Park). He’s cheap-ish on DK as well ($4,200).
Thames could turn out chalky given the price tag, but there are a few options behind him with reasonable projections/upside that are cash viable as well. On DK, Ryon Healy (OAK) is 1b eligible and just $3,300 with the platoon edge. Mitch Moreland (BOS) has a positive HHR delta over the L15, and he’s part of a Red Sox offense that’s carrying an IRT of 6.1 runs. Moreland is cheap everywhere.
Joey Votto (CIN) is more expensive than the targets above, but he’s viable in tournaments at what’s likely going to be low end ownership. He’ll have the platoon edge in a decently warm environment (Washington – low 80s temps). Matt Holliday (NYY) and Hanley Ramirez (BOS) are reasonably priced pieces that can be used as part of stacks in tournaments.
The second base position is site dependent in this slate in terms of cash game options. Brian Dozier (MIN) is the top projected scorer, and he has a dumb price on FD ($3,200). It’s a R/R matchup, but Josh Tomlin has reverse splits. Since 2015, Tomlin has allowed a .368 wOBA and a .240 ISO to RHBs.
On DK, taking your shot at upside with Rougned Odor (TEX) at the position is the most prudent decision in cash games. He’s cheap ($3,300), has power upside (.228 ISO vs. RHP since 2015) and he’s in Yankee Stadium (short porch in RF). He’s also facing a pitcher that when wrong allows power (Michael Pineda).
Jason Kipnis (CLE), Jed Lowrie (OAK) (cheap on FD- was scratched yesterday so we’ll have to monitor his status), Alen Hanson (CWS) (if leading off – punt price on FD) and Dustin Pedroia (BOS) (your primary alternative from Odor in cash games on DK if you don’t like his boom or bust profile) are pivots to consider in tournaments.
If Ryon Healy (OAK) is hitting fourth or fifth, he’s your cash game target at third base. He’s essentially tied in projection with Josh Donaldson (TOR) and Miguel Sano (MIN), who are dealing with minor injury concerns and are more expensive on both sites. Healy will have the platoon edge against Derek Holland, who’s allowed a .367 wOBA and .226 ISO to RHBs since 2015.
Travis Shaw (MIL) and Evan Longoria (TB) are a bit pricier pivots in cash games if Healy doesn’t get the lineup spot we’re projecting him for. Both have excellent matchups – Shaw vs. Teheran in Atlanta while Longoria gets Tillman and the O’s pen. In tournaments, we don’t care about their prices – we’re willing to use them in that format regardless of where Healy ends up in the lineup.
It’s a negative park shift for the Orioles (Tampa Bay), but Manny Machado (BAL) has been scorching hot lately and the price tag remains reasonable. He’s a fine target in tournaments.
Trea Turner (WSH) is coming off a monster game yesterday and he gets Scott Feldman and the Reds’ pen at home. The way Turner has been running alone gives us confidence to spend here in all formats, but he’s not a must in cash.
On DK, Franklin Barreto (OAK) is close to the minimum price ($2,200) and a viable cash game target that unlocks pricey spends elsewhere. Barreto homered yesterday in his MLB debut, and there’s some decent power/speed upside here. At AA last season, Barreto stole 30 bases and hit 10 home runs in 507 PAs. He’ll have the platoon edge, but it’s unlikely that he garners a great lineup spot. Oakland once again gets a big IRT (5.3 runs) in a better hitting environment (Chicago) against a weak pitcher.
On FD, Francisco Lindor (CLE) and Xander Bogaerts (BOS) are viable alternatives to Turner though we prefer them in tournaments. If using one of them in cash games, we’ll take the $600 that Lindor saves you from Turner.
Aaron Judge (NYY) and Bryce Harper (WSH) are the top projected scorers in this slate regardless of position. We’d like to lock at least one of these hitters in cash games, and it’s possible to include both in your plans on DK. Judge’s mammoth upside gets Nick Martinez (.364 wOBA, .208 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015) in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium. Harper will have the platoon edge in an inferior ballpark/matchup, which is enough to create a tie breaker here if in need of one.
Mookie Betts (BOS) is right behind these two in projection with an attractive price tag on FD ($3,800). Mookie won’t have the platoon edge, but you get event upside for a hitter that makes tons of contact at a good price. Of course, the challenge is will you have enough to make this sort of spend after spending on a nearly $5,000 OF on that site.
Rajai Davis (OAK) with the platoon edge and leading off is your best source of salary relief in the OF on both sites. Rajai will run on anyone, and he has some semblance of power when he holds the platoon edge (.158 ISO vs. LHP since 2015). Teammate Khris Davis (OAK) has double dong potential (though he will K a lot) and he’s just $4,100 on DK. Eric Thames (MIL) has OF eligibility on DK and he’s just $4,200 with the platoon edge in SunTrust Park. He’s your best OF value on that site.
On FD, secondary pieces that are viable across all formats are Brian Goodwin (WSH) (remains cheap), Aaron Hicks (NYY) (fourth best OF value on that site – switch hitter in Yankee Stadium facing a bad SP and a subpar pen behind that SP). Teammate Brett Gardner (NYY) is $500 more expensive on that site (same price as Mookie), but he’s viable in tournaments.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) will have the platoon edge and he’s underpriced vs. a LHP on DK where he’s $4,200. Mike Montgomery generates plenty of GBs, but he doesn’t miss many bats. We love this play in tournaments.
1) New York Yankees
The Yankees have a massive 6.2 IRT at home with hot weather and the wind blowing out. Opposing SP Nick Martinez is one we’ve long picked on due to his inability to miss bats and low GB rate, which leads to a high home run problem. The Yankees have the second highest 15-day Hard% among our projected lineups.
2) Washington Nationals
Since their team total is a bit tamer than the Yankees and Red Sox, the Nationals may carry lower ownership. Feldman’s velocity has dipped recently, has a 4.69 ZiPS projected ERA, and the most used bullpen in baseball. The Nationals are fourth in wRC+ against RHP.
3) Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are swinging hot bats recently and possess the second highest team total on the slate. Opposing pitcher Parker Bridwell has a 5.83 ZiPS projected ERA and 1.52 HR/9.
4) Oakland Athletics
5) Cleveland Indians
6) Cincinnati Reds
7) Tampa Bay Rays
The Athletics are the best lower priced value stack on both sites, which makes them appealing to use with Pineda and other top tier offenses. The Athletics have high upside RHBs like Rajai Davis, Ryon Healy, and Khris Davis to go with pure punt options like Franklin Barreto and Josh Phegley. It’s a large positive park shift for the Athletics, and Derek holland has allowed a .367 wOBA and .226 ISO to RHBs since 2015.
Cleveland and the Rays are our favorite contrarian stacks here. Opportunity cost is so high that ownership could be suppressed despite respective IRTs of 5 and 5.3. Ervin Santana has yielded 5 or more runs in three of four starts as regression is hitting him hard (2.97 ERA, 4.93 xFIP) while Chris Tillman and the Orioles pitching staff has just been a complete disaster.