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June 25 MLB DFS Late Slate: This Giant Garners Your Attention
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June 25 MLB DFS Late Slate: This Giant Garners Your Attention

00:39 Starting Pitchers
05:59 Catchers
07:06 First Base
09:27 Second Base
11:51 Shortstop
13:12 Third Base
16:06 Outfield
19:41 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

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June 25 MLB DFS Late Slate Pro Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Madison Bumgarner (SF)

Tier Two

2) Jacob deGrom (NYM)

Tier Three

3) Kenta Maeda (LAD)

4) Julio Teheran (ATL)

Tier Four

5) Jake Odorizzi (TB)

6) Nate Karns (SEA)

7) Chris Tillman (BAL)

8) Mike Fiers (HOU)

It’s a short slate with no Coors Field bats to pay up for. As a result of that and the significant edge Madison Bumgarner (SF) has on every other pitcher on this slate, he’s a core play in cash games who we are building around on all sites. It’s the best pitcher on the slate (2.95 FIP, 28.1 K percentage), in the best pitcher’s park, against the worst offense (Phillies have a 59 wRC+ against LHP). The Phillies team total is under 2.5 runs, leaving Bumgarner as a ridiculous -350 favorite.

Jacob deGrom (NYM) is a secondary value. He is the next most talented pitcher on the slate with the next best matchup. The velocity hasn’t been as good as last year but improved from early in the season, and that’s played big dividends in his recent K rate. In his first six starts, he posted a K rate better than 20.8 percent just once. He’s now eclipsed that number in six straight starts, including a 36 percent mark or better in three of four starts. The hot streak and matchup make him a great tournament pivot on FanDuel, and it’s possible to pay all the way up for him alongside Bumgarner on DraftKings.

If you want to get in some high upside, expensive bats (Trout, Ortiz), you’ll have to take a chance on a cheaper starting pitcher from the fourth tier. Our preference is for either Jake Odorizzi (TB) or Nate Karns (SEA). Both possess good K upside but significant downside in terms of run prevention.

Julio Teheran (ATL) is expensive on DraftKings and comes with steep opportunity cost on FanDuel, but we like him in tournaments due to a combination of the Mets injuries and Teheran’s impressive run. He’s posted a K-BB% of 22.7 or better in four of five starts.

Catcher Rankings

1) Buster Posey (SF)

2) Stephen Vogt (OAK)

3) Matt Wieters (BAL)

4) Yasmani Grandal (LAD)

5) Evan Gattis (HOU)

Practically every catcher on both FanDuel and DraftKings ranks as a negative value in our model. Between that and the emphasis on paying up for Madison Bumgarner, this is an excellent position to punt. Stephen Vogt (OAK) is the best “value” in the mid-tier, but we’d rather dip all the way down to someone like Robinson Chirinos (TEX) (career .188 ISO) who has some semblance of pop and should be in the lineup in a good hitting environment.

First Base Rankings

1) David Ortiz (BOS)

2) Albert Pujols (LAA)

3) Chris Davis (BAL)

4) Brandon Belt (SD)

5) Hanley Ramirez (BOS)

Another night we want to pay up for David Ortiz (BOS) who has been the best hitter in baseball and now carries significant power upside given his ridiculous .352 ISO meeting the extreme fly ball tendencies of AJ Griffin and a Rangers bullpen allowing 1.36 HR/9. If you choose Trout or dual expensive pitchers on DraftKings, using Ortiz may not be possible, but Albert Pujols (LAA) (facing rookie LHP Dillon Overton making his first MLB start/appearance) and Chris Davis (BAL) (platoon edge at home) have decent power upside at mid-tier pricing.

Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve (HOU)

2) Matt Carpenter (STL)

3) Neil Walker (NYM)

4) Robinson Cano (SEA)

5) Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

6) Rougned Odor (TEX)

7) Jurickson Profar (TEX)

We went deep with our second base rankings as there’s almost no discernable difference in our model score past Jose Altuve. On FanDuel, all these options seem to be priced appropriately. It’s more difficult to fit Bumgarner in over there so we’re hopeful a punt options emerges, and we’ve got our eye on Kolten Wong (STL) who should be in the lineup against a RHP, even if he’s in a bad lineup spot. On DraftKings it’s a little bit of a different story. Despite how well Julio Teheran is performing, we like Neil Walker‘s (NYM) power upside from the left side given Teheran’s splits (.342 wOBA, .188 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2014). Or you can pay up for Dustin Pedroia (BOS) or Rougned Odor (TEX) (depending on lineup spot) who have fair prices in a high run scoring environment.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Carlos Correa (HOU)

3) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

4) Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM)

5) Brad Miller (SEA)

We have options we like atop the shortstop rankings, with Manny Machado (BAL) (absurd all around skills, not hurt by lack of platoon edge, home park) and Carlos Correa (HOU) (great recent well hit rating, Chris Young is extremely homer prone), but they’re priced appropriately for the most part (Machado is a nice bargain on FanDuel). That might leave you spending down on Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM). We talked about Teheran’s poor splits against LHBs above, and Cabrera is locked in the two hole. Xander Bogaerts (BOS) is a fine tournament option.

Third Base Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL) (where eligible)

2) Adrian Beltre (TEX)

3) Matt Carpenter (STL) (where eligible)

4) Evan Longoria (TB)

5) Justin Turner (LAD)

As good as Steven Wright has been for the Red Sox, Adrian Beltre (TEX) is basically a free square in cash games on DraftKings for $2,900. On FanDuel he’s priced appropriately and Evan Longoria (TB) is a fine pivot at a similar price (Tillman has been better this year but long term has allowed lots of power to RHBs and it’s a plus park shift for Longoria). FanDuel’s pricing has all third basemen as neutral values, however, and it might make sense to simply punt the position with Maikel Franco (PHI) (or some other punt if one emerges) in order to make sure you pay up for Bumgarner and a couple of prime bats elsewhere.

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Mookie Betts (BOS)

3) Shin-Soo Choo (TEX)

4) Curtis Granderson (NYM)

5) Nomar Mazara (TEX)

6) George Springer (HOU)

7) Adam Jones (BAL)

8) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

9) Hyun Soo Kim (BAL)

10) Enrique Hernandez (LAD)

Mike Trout (LAA) is the best outfield spend, but we’re uncertain over the baseline of rookie LHP Dillon Overton (3.01 ERA, 3.15 FIP in first go around at AAA this season). It’s definitely a plus, but if you had to decide between Trout and say David Ortiz as an offensive spend, we’d go the latte route. Plus, outfield is a very good position to grab some low to mid priced values. The Rangers, particularly on DraftKings, are too cheap, even with Wright pitching well. Shin-soo Choo (TEX) and Nomar Mazara (TEX) for example are a combined $5,700 on DraftKings. On FanDuel they are good values too, but there are similar alternatives if you want to avoid picking on Wright too much. Corey Dickerson (TB) hit second yesterday and is only $2,900. The Dodgers Enrique Hernandez (LAD) and Scott Van Slyke (LAD) come at punt pricing with the platoon edge against Jeff Locke, who has been horrid (5.44 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 5.02 xFIP). Other mid-tier options include Curtis Granderson (NYM) and Hyun Soo Kim (BAL). George Springer (HOU) terrorized the Royals yesterday and is a prime tournament target given Chris Young‘s HR issues (currently 3.33 per 9).

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Boston Red Sox

Tier Two

2) Houston Astros (Chris Young‘s combination of a sub-30 percent FB and a 27 hard minus soft hit rate are leading to a ridiculous 3.33 HR/9; wind blowing out to left center at 15 mph and 90-plus degree temperatures work to create a really nice hitting environment as well)

3) Baltimore Orioles (lots of power upside at home, but much prefer the Astros stack)

Additional Contrarian Tournament Stacks

-Tampa Bay Rays (very positive park shift and Chris Tillman yields power when he goes wrong)

-Los Angeles Dodgers (may go underowned due to park but Jeff Locke has been a nightmare all season)

-Texas Rangers (can mini-stack in cash games on DraftKings due to ridiculous pricing)

-Los Angeles Angels (affordable stack with the game’s best player in Mike Trout facing a rookie LHP making his debut who wasn’t dominant in the Minors)

MLB Daily Analysis

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