Welcome to June 26 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 26 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS | HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | SORTABLE STATS | PITCHER TRENDS | LINEUPS | LEADERS
June 26 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:51 Starting Pitcher
08:41 First Base
10:59 Second Base
13:08 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
June 26 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
It’s a tricky slate for a six-gamer as we get a combination of decent offense and a couple of outlier SP values we really want to fit in. One of those is the top overall projected starting pitcher, Chris Sale (BOS). It’s no surprise that Sale finds himself up top. His strikeout ability gives him an incredible floor. Sale has not struck out less than seven batters in a game this season, and has recorded double digit strikeouts in 10 of 15 starts. Even in a slightly below average matchup and high price tag, we view him as underpriced and a cash game building block, but he is someone you can fade in large field tournaments on this slate (some talented alternatives, albeit not in great spots, and some bats worth paying up for).
The other outlier SP value is Jeff Samardzija (SF), who has had a resurgence despite what the 4.74 ERA may be telling you. Samardzija has a phenomenal 24.4 K-BB% (14.5 for his career), which will lead to great surface statistics once his high 18% HR/FB rate and unlucky BABIP and LOB% numbers normalize. Samardzija has the second lowest IRTA facing a Rockies team receiving the most dramatic negative park shift possible. They rank 29th in wRC+ against RHP. We like pairing Sale and Shark together on DK, and Samardzija is the best tournament alternative to Sale on FD (some cash game appeal if you want better bats).
While the aforementioned starting pitchers stick out from a value perspective, there are a few different upside routes to check out for tournaments. Up top, Carlos Carrasco (CLE) is priced too close to Sale for our liking, but will carry way lower ownership against a high risk/reward Rangers offense outside of Texas.
Mid-tier options include Rich Hill (LAD) (good K rate last game, strong Vegas odds, longevity a major concern as is a contact oriented opponent) and Jordan Montgomery (NYY) (consistently logging 5-plus K games but White Sox are first in wRC+ against LHP and contact oriented in that split).
At first glance, Jose Berrios (MIN) has the skills upside to join the tournament group. However, he’s mostly a fade for us due to the nightmare matchup in Boston against the Red Sox combined with a hefty price tag that doesn’t leave much room for error. As much as we like the talent, it should also be pointed out that the 2.67 ERA is not currently supported by his peripherals.
Though it’s just a six game slate, plenty of pitching options leave us looking for value at catcher. Willson Contreras (CHC) stands out as one of the top values on both sites as he and the Cubs will get a matchup with Gio Gonzalez. Contreras has found himself hitting third in each of the last few Cubs starts against left-handed pitchers, so we’d expect to find him there again. Not only is he cheap ($3,600 on DK, $2,700 on FD), but he’s posted a strong positive delta and Hard% in the last fifteen days.
If you find the cash, Gary Sanchez (NYY) is the top projected scorer at the position. Sanchez will get the platoon advantage against contact oriented, David Holmberg and there is a chance he could work his way back up the lineup with Aaron Hicks‘ absence. It’s been just a small sample, but Sanchez has posted a .317 ISO against LHP in his early career.
Matt Holliday (NYY) tops the value column for first basemen. The Yankees hold the highest implied run total on the slate and Holliday will be one of many who will hold the platoon edge on Holmberg. Holmberg has done an acceptable job of keeping the ball in the park thus far, but both ZiPS and Steamer expect him to finish the season above 1.5 HR/9. Holliday is a bit more valuable on FanDuel at $3,200, but he’s a reasonable spend on DraftKings at $4,300 as well.
There is a decent gap between Holliday and the next best options. Mitch Moreland (BOS) rates well in our model and has been solid of late (36.4% Hard% in last fifteen days) but the matchup with Jose Berrios, doesn’t necessarily ring well for cash games. Jose Abreu (CHW) is a bit more expensive than Holliday, so we’d prefer to take the savings.
Chase Utley (LAD) holds first base eligibility on DraftKings and should be leading off against Ricky Nolasco. He’d be an acceptable use of salary relief (though we prefer using him at 2B). Tyler Austin (NYY) is just $2,200 on FanDuel where he holds 1B eligibility.
Starlin Castro (NYY) and Chase Utley (LAD) represent two of the top values on both sites. Castro and the Yankees hold the highest implied run total and he might get a boost one spot in the order. Castro is quite valuable on both sites, but there is a chance you’ll actually need a few extra dollars in savings. You can then look to Utley, who is just $2,400 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings. Sure, he’s old – but he’s posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days and should find himself in the leadoff spot.
Kris Bryant (CHC) is far and away the top 3B value in our model, but he’s been in a rough patch of late, posting just a 8.3% Hard% in the last fifteen days. Nevertheless, his history against LHP precedes him, posting a .410 wOBA and .289 ISO against LHP in his career.
There isn’t much in the way of savings, but Todd Frazier (CHW) and Justin Turner (LAD) would be potential options for perhaps a bit less than Bryant. Frazier will get the platoon edge in his home ballpark against fly ball oriented Jordan Montgomery, while Turner gets to put his same handed prowess to use against Ricky Nolasco. Turner projects better from a raw total perspective, but it’s Frazier who comes at a slightly better price tag.
Some potential injuries to Addison Russell (CHC) and Corey Seager (LAD) leave us in limbo at the shortstop position. That leaves us turning to players like Tim Anderson (CHW). Anderson found himself in the leadoff spot the last time the White Sox found a southpaw, and if he’s there again he should be the cash game play at the position. Anderson is just $2,700 on FD and $3,000 on DraftKings and has posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days. With so few cheap options with viability, Anderson looks like a good play.
Trea Turner (WSH) is the top option at the position, but he comes into play only if you plan on skipping out on Chris Sale. If that’s the case, he’s an excellent option against a starting pitcher that lacks command like Eddie Butler.
Bryce Harper (WSH) is the top per dollar play and raw projected scorer in our model, but it will be difficult to try and make him work in cash games.
The value gets quite thin afterwards though. Tyler Austin (NYY) is OF eligible on DraftKings and is just $3,200. He could potentially see a better lineup spot as the Yankees deal with an injury, and he’ll hold the platoon edge on David Holmberg.
Albert Almora (CHC) won’t bring much upside, but he’s very cheap on both sites and should draw the start in centerfield against Gio Gonzalez. Both Shin-Soo Choo (TEX) and Melky Cabrera (CHW) are in the mid to low $3,000s on DraftKings and will draw lineup spots near the top of the order. With a strong emphasis on finding value, using it on players near the top of the order is almost reason enough.
If you can find some cash, both Mookie Betts (BOS) (Betts is potentially in play for cash games at just $3,500 on FanDuel) and Aaron Judge (NYY) would be excellent plays. They each have posted great Hard% rates in the last fifteen days and are the 2nd and 3rd highest projected scorers at the position.
1) Washington Nationals
2) New York Yankees
3) Los Angeles Dodgers
All three of these stacks are usable in tournaments (obviously). All have a different feel to them. The Nats stack faces Eddie Butler, who you can grind to death with balls in play and walks. The Yankees are in cooler temperatures for a change, but a good hitter’s park and likely the worst opposing SP on the slate. Holmberg has a low ERA but it’s all luck based – he projects as a higher ERA pitcher who will struggle with the long ball. The Dodgers are the hottest hitting team of the bunch, with a gaudy average 15-day Hard% among their lineup. They’re in the worst park, but Ricky Nolasco and his 2.45 HR/9 can make any park look small.
4) Chicago Cubs
5) Boston Red Sox
The Cubs have been a frustrating offense all year long, and they have clearly the lowest IRT of the top two tier stacks (4.3, everyone else at 5-plus). As a result, you should find lower ownership against Gio Gonzalez, who is wild, keeping the ball on the ground less than usual, and is posting an elevated HR/FB rate for the second consecutive season.
Once again the lack of event upside for the Red Sox has them ranked lower than their IRT would indicate. The one plus here is that Jose Berrios has pitched so well, it has kept the Boston hitter prices in check on both sites.
Additional Tournament Stacks
-Chicago White Sox: The White Sox have a rap as a pretty poor offense, but a slew of RHBs that perform well against southpaws actually has them leading the league in wRC+ against LHP. Now some of that is luck related as the ISO is just a little above average and BABIP in that split leads all of baseball. However, at affordable pricing against a pitcher that people like (but should regress), this is a fine contrarian stack.