FNTSY SportsGrid RotoExperts
June 26 MLB DFS: Yes Way, Jose
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
Print Friendly

June 26 MLB DFS: Yes Way, Jose

01:08 Starting Pitchers
05:04 Catchers
06:59 First Base
08:50 Second Base
11:10 Shortstop
12:21 Third Base
14:37 Outfield
18:20 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

premium_access_now  HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | WELL-HIT RATINGS | HITTER MODEL (BETA)

1x


June 26 MLB DFS Late Slate Pro Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Jose Fernandez (MIA)

Tier Two

2) Chris Sale (CWS)

3) Tanner Roark (WSH)

4) Jason Hammel (CHC)

5) Justin Verlander (DET)

Tier Three

6) Nathan Eovaldi (NYY)

7) Drew Smyly (TB)

8) Anthony Desclafani (CIN)

9) Marcus Stroman (TOR)

10) Sonny Gray (OAK)

Both sites have rewarded us with the same slate (11 games), which means that Jose Fernandez (MIA) is the ace you’re locking in cash. Stephen Strasburg has been scratched and Chris Sale (CWS) has a terrible context (facing the Blue Jays at the Cell), which means that Fernandez will draw the attention for cash games. From a projection standpoint, no other pitcher in this slate is close to Fernandez. He’s not a huge favorite (right around -145) and the matchup isn’t great (Chicago is ranked sixth in wRC+ and second in BB/K vs. RHP), but his K projection (32 percent K rate) is higher than every other pitcher today. In a slate where pitching value isn’t strong and Coors Field/Kershaw aren’t around, we recommend locking in Fernandez in cash.

Paying just $10,900 for Fernandez on FanDuel makes the most sense in cash games, but on DraftKings you’ll have to find a complement. Jason Hammel (CHC) (3.6 implied run total against and a great park shift) is likely the safest complement at a price that won’t make roster construction difficult, but there’s a cheaper alternative that might make sense in cash games in our third tier (we’ll discuss shortly). Tanner Roark (WSH) is too expensive to use in cash on DraftKings (viable in tournaments), but he’s the lone alternative to Fernandez in cash games on FanDuel (yielding very soft contact – a -6.3 hard minus soft hit rate and the Brewers represent an awesome matchup for Ks – they’re striking out a league high 26 percent vs. RHP).

Justin Verlander (DET) is priced correctly for a difficult matchup vs. Cleveland, which makes him more of a tournament option. If searching for cash value on our third tier, taking a risk with Nathan Eovaldi (NYY) on DraftKings makes some sense. Eovaldi is dirt-cheap on that site ($5,200 – more than $2,000 cheaper than Hammel-Smyly) and while he’s at home, he’ll draw a good matchup vs. Minnesota (ranked 23rd in wRC+ and striking out 22 percent of the time vs. RHP). Eovaldi and the Yankees are the largest favorites in this slate by a wide margin (-220), leaving Eovaldi an implied run total against just under four runs.

Catcher Rankings

1) Victor Martinez (DET) – where eligible

2) Brian McCann (NYY)

3) Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)

Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) is priced as if we was facing Stephen Strasburg on FanDuel ($2,400). Tanner Roark is still a challenging matchup, but he’s not Strasburg and that price is just too low for Lucroy (.357 wOBA, .174 ISO vs. RHP since 2015). We’re going after that punt price on FanDuel, but Lucroy is priced accurately on DraftKings, and so is Brian McCann (NYY). While we like McCann (cash viable on both sites – hitting fifth for the offense with the highest team total in this slate), it’s tough to pay all the way up for him on DraftKings. Using a punt in cash on that site makes the most sense, and we think Sandy Leon (BOS) is your best punt (should crack the Red Sox lineup and he’s minimum priced on DraftKings).

First Base Rankings

1) Joey Votto (CIN)

2) Miguel Cabrera (DET)

3) Wil Myers (SD)

4) Alex Rodriguez (NYY) – where eligible

5) Eric Hosmer (KC)

We’re willing to let pricing dictate our decisions with the top two hitters at this position. Joey Votto (CIN) is underpriced on FanDuel ($3,400) relative to his context (facing Luis Perdomo – has allowed a .398 wOBA to LHBs this season and his HR/9 is sitting at 1.72), while Miguel Cabrera (DET) carries a friendly price on DraftKings ($4,100 – facing Josh Tomlin, who’s allowed a .345 wOBA and .249 ISO to RHBs since 2015). Votto and Cabrera should be your focus in cash games today at this position. If you want to go against the herd in tournaments, Freddie Freeman (ATL) is someone we love in that format today (+0.3 change over the last 14 days in our well-hit tool).

Second Base Rankings

1) Daniel Murphy (WSH)

2) Jose Altuve (HOU)

3) Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

4) Neil Walker (SD)

5) Ian Kinsler (DET)

The top three-ranked second basemen in our model are priced accurately around the industry, so we’re searching for lower dollar values. Neil Walker (NYM) is likely your top value choice at the position on DraftKings, where it feels like that $3,700 tag should be a little more relative to his skills (.349 wOBA, .190 ISO vs. RHP since 2014) and awesome matchup vs. Bud Norris (.390 wOBA allowed to LHBs this season). Yangervis Solarte (SD) is the other value we like at the position on DraftKings (cleanup hitter facing DeSclafani and the Reds bullpen in a great hitting environment). On FanDuel, we’re pursuing Logan Forsythe (TB) (leadoff hitter for an offense with a team total that’s approaching five runs). If Devon Travis (TOR) hits second again today, he’s a fine alternative to Forsythe on FanDuel.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

2) Carlos Correa (HOU)

3) Manny Machado (BAL) – where eligible

4) Zack Cozart (CIN)

5) Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM)

Much like second base, our top shortstop options are priced accurately around the industry. Thankfully, there are some site dependent values at lower dollar levels at the position. Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) is the cheapest we’re willing to go on DraftKings, while Jonathan Villar (MIL) is priced below $3,000 on FanDuel (priced for a different matchup). This price is simply incorrect for Villar, who leads the league in stolen bases (26) and leads off regularly for the Brewers. Villar represents the best value at the position on FanDuel. Carlos Correa (HOU) is cash viable on both sites, but paying for him will be difficult in that format (we love him in tournaments).

Third Base Rankings

1) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

2) Alex Rodriguez (NYY)

3) Evan Longoria (TB)

4) Manny Machado (BAL)

5) Danny Valencia (OAK)

The top four options at this position all rank closely in our model, so we’re left with evaluating their context in order to determine their viability today. Josh Donaldson (TOR) is an absurd hitter vs. LHP, but he’s facing Chris Sale. He’s viable in tournament, but the option we like the most in cash is Alex Rodriguez (NYY). While he’s been cold as of late (-0.5 change in our well-hit tool over the last 14 days), he’s the cleanup hitter for a Yankees offense that has an implied team total of 5.9 runs. Rodriguez will be facing Tyler Duffey, who’s been a mess (6.18 ERA backed up by a 1.66 HR/9 and his SwStr rate is below eight percent). If you want to avoid A-Rod, his alternatives are Yangervis Solarte (SD) and Evan Longoria (TB) (love him in tournaments but cash viable on FD where his price is nearly the same as A-Rod’s).

Outfield Rankings

1) Bryce Harper (WSH)

2) Mookie Betts (BOS)

3) Mike Trout (LAA)

4) Jay Bruce (CIN)

5) Shin-soo Choo (TEX)

6) Brett Gardner (NYY)

7) Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY)

8) Nomar Mazara (TEX)

9) Mark Trumbo (BAL)

10) Curtis Granderson (NYM)

11) Ryan Braun (MIL)

12) Carlos Beltran (NYY)

13) Ben Revere (WSH)

14) Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)

15) Matt Kemp (SD)

It’s a great day to fade the expensive options in the outfield. Bryce Harper (WSH) is our top ranked hitter in our model and his context is great (facing Jimmy Nelson, who struggles with LHBs, and a huge park shift). However, he’s been very cold (-0.6 change in our well-hit tool over the last 14 days) and priced appropriately. We also like Mookie Betts (BOS), but Martin Perez‘ main struggle is walking batters. With that being said, the main reason why we think it’s worth fading the expensive outfielders is because of all the value at lower price levels. Shin-soo Choo (TEX) is still one of our preferred values in the OF despite a growing cost, and teammate Nomar Mazara remains fairly cheap everywhere. Both will have the platoon edge vs. the struggling Clay Buchholz at home. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY) is another pair of teammates we’re very high on this afternoon. They’re top of the lineup hitters for a Yankees offense that has a team total approaching six runs at home. Alex Gordon (KC) is back for the Royals and hit second last night. He’s under $3,000 on both sites, which makes him a nice value play to fill out your third OF spot. Travis Jankowski (SD) is a good value on DraftKings and Ryan Braun (MIL) is simply too cheap on FanDuel ($3,000 – don’t want to pick on Roark much but having exposure to a couple of underpriced Brewers in cash on that site makes sense). For tournaments, we love Jay Bruce (CIN) and Mark Trumbo (BAL).

Stacks

Tier One

1) New York Yankees

Tier Two

2) Cincinnati Reds

3) Baltimore Orioles

4) Texas Rangers

5) Boston Red Sox

Tier Three

6) Washington Nationals

7) San Diego Padres

8) Chicago White Sox

The New York Yankees are our top ranked offense (implied run total is nearly six runs), but it’s a deep day for offenses. Every single offense in our second tier has an implied run total over five runs (the Nationals are in our third tier and their team total is approaching five runs as well), so instead of building through a lone offense in cash, we’re encouraging a more balanced approach. You might end up having more exposure to the Yankees in cash games on DraftKings due to the favorable prices on some of their main hitters, and that’s a fine approach on that site.

If searching for tournament value in our second tier, the Baltimore Orioles make sense in that format (tons of power upside at home vs. Drew Smyly, a fly ball pitcher).

Additional Tournament Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals – Both sides of this game can be stacked in tournaments (hot temperatures have led to ridiculous scores in Kansas City as of late, and temperatures are projected to be in the low 90s today). We particularly like the Astros side, as they have plenty of power bats that can hurt Ian Kennedy (fly ball pitcher).