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June 27 MLB DFS: Betts on the Sox
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Welcome to June 27 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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June 27 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
11:10 Catcher
13:21 First Base
17:11 Second Base
20:21 Third Base
22:31 Shortstop
25:29 Outfield
28:49 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

June 27 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

From a value perspective, it’s a rather deep slate at the starting pitcher position. However, we’re still headlined by Max Scherzer (WAS) who has a ridiculous 35.3 K% on the season and 36.5% over his last three games. As much respect as we have for the Cubs offense, they simply haven’t performed up to expectations this season, and the removal of the Kyle Schwarber we thought we were getting heading into the season is great for opposing RHPs. The Cubs are 24th in wRC+ against RHP with a middle of the pack K rate and below average recent Hard%. Even at expensive pricing, we view Scherzer as a cash game building block and top value on both sites. We’re projecting him for 9.6 strikeouts; no other pitcher is even projected for 7 strikeouts. The depth of this slate and the ability to get access to the highest expected scoring teams through value plays adds to Scherzer’s usefulness.

A trio of closely projected pitchers follows Scherzer: Justin Verlander (DET), Carlos Martinez (STL), and Luis Severino (NYY). Verlander is the Vegas favorite of the bunch, boasting the best odds (-172) and lowest IRTA (3.9), facing a meek Royals team that isn’t as contact oriented against RHP as they were in previous seasons. Verlander has had a shaky season, struggling with his control and seeing a reduced K rate. Coming off a 11 K and 1 BB game, this might be the time to buy.

Martinez has elite upside due to his K and GB rate combination. However, some difficulties with LHBs, a high BB rate (has been better recently), and a tough pitching environment introduce risk. Severino faces a White Sox team that is much worse against RHP. Like Martinez, Severino brings together a plus K rate (26.9 K%) with an elite GB rate (56.1%).

The upside of this trio makes Scherzer someone you can fade in GPPs, although we’d like to lock in his floor in cash games, even with the higher cost.

At a rung lower in overall projection but rating as similar values are Kenta Maeda (LAD) and Drew Pomeranz (BOS). Maeda is the safer of the duo, in a friendlier park with a much lower IRTA facing an Angels team without Mike Trout and without a DH. However, Pomeranz offers more upside (26.1 K%). On FD, and to a lesser extent DK, you can include James Paxton (SEA) in this conversation. His velocity somewhat returned last start, leading to 8 Ks and a plus GB rate. He’ll get a bad Phillies offense in his home park.

On DK a couple of young starting pitchers are excellent sources of cap relief. For cash games, Sean Newcomb (PHI) will receive a positive park shift pitching in Petco Field. The matchup is helpful as well; the Padres are dead last in wRC+ against LHP with a high 24.9 K%. Newcomb projects as a high K rate guy with both ZiPS and Steamer projecting him to strike out more than a batter an inning. The big risk with Newcomb is control; he walked 5.15 batters per 9 in AAA prior to his call up. In tournaments, you can drop down even further to Matt Strahm (KC). He’s a big risk against a right heavy Tigers team carrying a 5.1 IRT. However, Strahm also projects as a high K guy. He’ll need to pitch clean innings to realize any upside (has averaged 4 IP through two starts), but at a sub-$5k cost even a mid-teens performance is very useful.

While those pitchers represent our favorite values, it’s possible to expand your player pool further on DK where Jake Arrieta (CHC) is a pure price play despite a difficult matchup.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY) is the top projected scorer at the catcher position. He’ll have the platoon edge in a good hitting environment, and while we like the upside here, Sanchez is simply too expensive to consider in cash games. He’s usable in tournaments.

The name of the game at the catcher position is getting out of it as cheap as possible. On DK, the cheap guys are Christian Vazquez (BOS) and James McCann (DET). They will have the platoon edge, and Vazquez is facing a fly ball prone pitcher in Fenway Park. These two won’t get good lineup spots, but cheap prices at a position with no opportunity cost puts them in our radar.

On FD, it’s a little trickier to go cheap and you might not have to full punt on that site. If you do, Willson Contreras (CHC) looks like your punt at $2,200 though the matchup is horrific (Scherzer). We prefer spending a little more and grabbing one of Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (36.7% HHR over the L15) or Evan Gattis (HOU) (platoon edge in a good hitting environment). Not only do they have higher projections than Contreras – the upside here is simply higher given their individual skills and superior matchups.

First Base

As usual, we have a loaded first base position on a 15 game slate. It all starts with Hanley Ramirez (BOS), who carries the top projection at average cost of a roster spot prices around the industry. Hanley has a negative delta over the L15 in HHR, but he’ll have the platoon edge vs. fly baller Hector Santiago (.197 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015) in Fenway Park. He’s going to be the optimal way of filling out the first base position in this slate.

After Hanley, we have Eric Thames (MIL) at a discounted price tag on both sites. Once again, Thames will have the platoon edge in a great hitting environment (Cincinnati) and he’s facing a fly ball prone pitcher. Miguel Cabrera (DET) remains too cheap on DK ($3,600) and he’ll have the platoon edge (which isn’t as meaningful for him – he’s more of a neutral splits hitter). Sam Travis (BOS) is cheap and has the platoon edge in Fenway. There’s PH risk and he’s likely a better target as part of Red Sox stack in tournaments, but he’s viable in cash games if you need to dip down to a punt price.

In tournaments, Anthony Rizzo (CHC) is cheaper than usual on both sites as the price is accounting for a matchup against Max Scherzer. Scherzer is a bit more prone to LH power, which makes Rizzo a viable contrarian punt in tournaments that you can grab at very low ownership. Cody Bellinger (LAD) (platoon edge – he continues to show mammoth upside on a nightly basis), Joey Votto (CIN) and Matt Holliday (NYY) are other ways to grab upside in tournaments and get away from the chalk (though you could argue that Bellinger won’t have low ownership with the platoon edge for the ROS).

Second Base

Brian Dozier (MIN) with the platoon edge in Fenway represents the top projected scorer at second base. Dozier is reachable in cash games on FD, but with every dollar being so precious on a Scherzer slate, it’s likely best to go a little cheaper. You can do that with Jason Kipnis (CLE) on both sites and still hold some upside at the position. Kipnis once again is on pace for double digit home runs and stolen bases, and he hits leadoff or second with the platoon edge.

Dustin Pedroia (BOS) certainly carries less upside than the hitters above, but he’s cheap around the industry and gives you access to the Red Sox offense (6.1 IRT) in a good lineup spot. On DK, Rougned Odor (TEX) is in play at just $3,200. It’s a more boom or bust profile that you’re taking on with Odor, but he has excellent power (when compared to other middle infielders) when he has the platoon edge (.226 ISO vs. RHP since 2015). If we get Chase Utley (LAD) leading off for the Dodgers, he’s $2,300 on FD – that price alone puts him in the cash game conversation on a Scherzer slate.

Jose Altuve (HOU) is expensive and out of reach for cash games, but with the platoon edge you can consider him in tournaments.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson (LAD) is affordable around the industry, but particularly on DK where he’s just $4,100. We realize he doesn’t have the platoon edge, but the production here has been great vs. RHP (.381 wOBA, .251 ISO vs. RHP since 2015) and he’s facing a reverse splits pitcher in  great hitting environment (Rogers Centre).

For $300 less, you can roster Manny Machado (BAL) on FD. It’s not a correct price for Machado ($3,500), a neutral splits hitter in a favorable hitting environment.

It’s a tough conversation valuewise on FD. You might not be able to afford Machado (which is a bummer given the discounted price tag), and the options behind him aren’t as exciting. Kris Bryant (CHC) is cheaper than usual ($2,900) given the matchup vs. Scherzer. Jedd Gyorko (STL) is $3,100 without the platoon edge, but he’s in a much better hitting environment than his home park (Chase Field). Nicholas Castellanos (DET) is $2,900 with the platoon edge and he’ll hit second, which puts him in the mix as well. On DK, the conversation is much simpler since Donaldson and Machado are so inexpensive.

Miguel Sano (MIN) massive power stroke gets a trip to Fenway Park, and in this particular matchup he’ll have the platoon edge. He’s worth it in tournaments.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts (BOS) is the top projected scorer at the position. The $3,600 price tag on FD makes him a good value in a vacuum, but the reason Bogaerts rates so well is the usual – the Red Sox have a strong IRT at home facing a fly ball pitcher and he hits in a great lineup spot. Thankfully for Bogaerts, there’s a wrinkle of upside here over the L15 (39.6% HHR). We’d still rather go cheaper at the position in cash games.

Francisco Lindor (CLE) is $4,100 on DK and $3,400 on FD, which are good price tags for him. Like Bogaerts, the context here is favorable (CLE has an IRT of 5.6 runs, and he hits at the top of the lineup). If you can fit him in cash games, great. If not, Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) awaits at cheaper price tags. It’s a meaningful drop on DK where Tulo is $900 cheaper than Lindor, which is enough to justify him as a cash game play in what’s likely going to be a meh lineup spot (sixth). We’d love for a punt to emerge on FD, as Tulo is $2,900 there (that’s not really a punt price though he’s viable).

Corey Seager (LAD) and his 48.6% HHR over the L15 makes him an excellent tournament option, but the expensive price tag makes it difficult to spend up for him in cash games.

Outfield

Mookie Betts (BOS) is the leadoff hitter for an offense that has the highest IRT in the slate, and he’ll have the platoon edge in his first few PAs. We love picking on the Twins. Outside of Berrios, their pitching staff is weak and behind those SPs is an even weaker bullpen. The Twins’ bullpen has the second worst ERA/xFIP and the worst K/9s in the league this season. Mookie’s price is down to $3,600 on FD, which is a great price for a hitter with event upside in this offense. Even on DK where Betts is fully priced, there are enough ways you can find to roster him in cash games.

It’s a 15 game slate – there are a bunch of OFs that could qualify as “cash game” plays but here are our favorites: Jose Bautista (TOR) (another leadoff hitter with upside) has a dumb price tag on DK ($3,900). He’s the best point per dollar value at the position on that site. Eric Thames (MIL) is just $4,200 on DK with OF eligibility. Chris Young (BOS) is just $2,300 on FD and will have the platoon edge, which is meaningful for his projection. Since 2015, Young has generated a .399 wOBA and .219 ISO vs. a LHP. If you need a punt on DK in order to fit Mookie, Matt Olson (OAK) is $2,200 and he’ll have the platoon edge in Houston (much better hitting environment than his home park). Tommy Pham (STL) is another cheap guy to consider on FD. He’s just $2,600 and while he won’t have the platoon edge, he hits in a good lineup spot (second) and he’s in Chase Field. Gregory Polanco (PIT) remains cheap on both sites and he’ll have the platoon edge albeit in a tougher hitting environment than any of the OFs we’ve mentioned. If you can spend a little more, Adam Duvall (CIN) and Billy Hamilton (CIN) are viable with middling prices on FD.

Khris Davis (OAK) has a mid-tier price tag on both sites and he doesn’t have the platoon edge, but he’s in Houston and Mike Fiers has allowed a .215 ISO to RHBs since 2015. Davis is a good target in tournaments. Domingo Santana (MIL) has a very similar profile – will K a lot but hit for plenty of power and he’s in a favorable matchup at home. Santana’s HHR over the L15 is sitting at 30% (positive delta). If you’re spending up in tournaments, Aaron Judge (NYY) will have the platoon edge on the road (Chicago).

Stacks

Tier One

1) Boston Red Sox

Not only are the Red Sox our top stack, but the ability to pick apart individual values from this offense allows you to mini stack them, even in cash games alongside Max Scherzer.

Tier Two

2) Los Angeles Dodgers

3) Cincinnati Reds

4) Toronto Blue Jays

The hot hitting Dodgers face Jesse Chavez, who has allowed 5-plus runs in four of his last seven starts.

The Reds possess decent event upside at possibly the lowest ownership of the top two tiers. Scooter Gennett has been on fire. Votto and Duvall provide power. Peraza and Hamilton have speed upside.

The Jays are at home in a favorable hitting environment (small boost relatively speaking with temperatures cooling off this week across the country). They’ll face Kevin Gausman, one of several disaster SPs for the Orioles that has led to an overworked bullpen (second most IP) that is struggling without Zack Britton (third highest xFIP).

Tier Three

5) Milwaukee Brewers

6) Cleveland Indians

On the other side of the Reds game, we get a Milwaukee team with a rare positive park shift and the benefits of being the road team (guaranteed ninth inning). While the team total is tame (4.5), Tim Adleman is homer prone (1.69 HR/9 in his career). That lines up well with an event oriented Brewers team (sixth in home runs, third in steals).

Cleveland may have additional upside as they rolled over the Rangers last night, forcing them to use a bunch of their bullpen, which isn’t good.

Additional Tournament Stacks

-Minnesota Twins: Green Monster is great for right-handed power, and pull hitters Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier can take advantage with the platoon edge against a fly ball oriented Drew Pomeranz. Less expensive hitters at scarcer positions in Eduardo Escobar and Jorge Polanco carry strong 15-day Hard%.

-Texas Rangers: The Rangers went off against RHP Carlos Carrasco last night and get an even worse, more power prone RHP in Mike Clevinger. Cleveland had to roll through five RPs last night.