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June 27 MLB DFS: How Lo can you Mo
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Welcome to June 27 MLB DFS action. You’ll find Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for June 27 MLB DFS along with LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using the customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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Time Stamps
00:45 Dog v. Cat, Floor v. Ceiling 
05:11 
Starting Pitcher
15:45 Catcher
19:11 First Base
22:44 Second Base
25:29 Third Base
29:16 Shortstop
31:28 Outfield
35:34 Stacks

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  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

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Range of Outcome Projections

June 27 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner (SF) tops our projections in facing a Colorado Rockies team that is receiving the largest negative park shift possible. This results in some strong Vegas odds for Bumgarner (-150, 3.4 IRTA). However, unlike against RHP, the Rockies are just a neutral to slightly below average matchup for lefties to face. Couple that with a full price tag on Bumgarner and some difficulty missing RHBs thus far, and we don’t view him as an option that you have to pay up for in cash games. It is, however, a high floor option, and it was nice to see Bumgarner complete an efficient eight innings in his last start, facing a season high 29 batters.

At a much lower price tag than Bumgarner on both sites, Kyle Gibson (MIN) carries a similar raw total projection. The White Sox are 22nd in wRC+ against RHP with a high 25 K%. They consistently run out 6-7 RHBs against RHP, and our projected lineup for them includes five batters with a sub-.300 wOBA baseline in that split. Gibson has a career high 23.3 K% this season, way higher than his previous career best of 17.7%, and it’s making him DFS relevant. It’s backed up by a career best SwStr rate, and the strong GB rate hasn’t suffered much in the process. He’s a strong cash game play on both sites in this matchup.

For the second straight day we get a seemingly underpriced Mets SP on DK that merits SP2 consideration. Today it’s Zack Wheeler (NYM), coming in at just $6,300. Wheeler has one of the lowest IRTA on the slate at 3.7 as a tiny home favorite over the Pirates, who are below average against RHP, albeit a bit contact oriented. Having a favorable umpire should help out here. Wheeler is also in play on FD where he represents a small discount to Gibson.

On FD, a third mid-tier SP joins the mix in Shane Bieber (CLE), as his price has not risen nearly to the extent that it has on DK. Bieber has a good matchup against a Cardinals team that will swing and miss at an above average rate against RHP. He’ll have the benefit of both a positive park and positive league shift. Bieber, early on, has actually seen an increase in K rate since jumping to the MLB level (29% over three starts) from AAA (25.8%). It’s not unheard of for that to happen, but we’ve got the baselines dialed back a bit. If you got more aggressive there, he’d creep up towards being a similar value as Wheeler and Gibson.

On DK, the more aggressive pricing on Bumgarner and Bieber brings into play different pivots. Here we’re looking at Zach Eflin (PHI) and Ivan Nova (PIT) in the mid-tier and Chris Bassitt (OAK) as a punt. Eflin has ratcheted up the velocity this year (94.3 mph on fastball, 92,7 last year). That has helped him to miss a ton more bats (+2.8 SwStr rate), giving him more DFS upside and making him a better overall pitcher (xFIP dropped from 5.21 to 3.74). He’s still subject to get hit hard via the long ball and to short outings, but there’s swing and miss upside against a Yankees lineup that is without a DH and Gary Sanchez.

Nova likely won’t carry much ownership at all, but there’s a hint of upside here that you might ignore at first glance. His fourseam and sinker velocity has increased each month of the season. In three June starts he’s struck out 24.7% of batters faced. Nova has pretty wide splits, so the actual Mets lineup will help to determine his viability.

Bassitt is a cheap option that doesn’t seem to have much pure upside, but a soft Tigers lineup and decent enough wOBA baselines could lead to him paying off his tag while providing lots of cap relief.

Robbie Ray (ARI) would likely lead all SPs in projected points if we gave him his usual outs and batters faced baselines. However, Ray, who is being activated off of the DL, is returning a start earlier than expected. In his last rehab start, he did not complete his fifth inning and finished it at 66 pitches.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal (LAD) and Buster Posey (SF) top the projections at catcher with A.J. Ellis (SD) and J.T. Realmuto (MIA) not far behind. Grandal’s projection is a bit more variant due to the Dodgers ever-changing lineups but he’ll hit from his best side (.338 wOBA, .227 ISO against RHP since 2017) and is simply one of the more talented hitters at the position. The same goes for Posey who will face Kyle Freeland. Posey owns a .383 wOBA and .197 ISO against LHP since the start of 2017. Realmuto also has the platoon edge but faces Robbie Ray. If we’re choosing a spend at catcher because we have the resources, Grandal gets a slight edge over Posey.

With all the top hitters facing above average starters, value is possibly the preferred route at catcher. A.J. Ellis (SD), Mitch Garver (MIN), and Jonathan Lucroy (OAK) are all at $3,000 or below on DraftKings and face below average starters. Garver and Lucroy won’t have the platoon edge but face Mike Fiers (.353 wOBA, .212 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2017) while Garver faces James Shields (.313 wOBA, .175 ISO allowed since 2017). Ellis is the one with the platoon edge against Mike Minor (.319 wOBA, .196 ISO allowed since 2017) but he’s the weakest hitter with just a .305 wOBA and .113 ISO against LHP since 2017.

Robinson Chirinos (TEX), Mike Zunino (SEA), and John Ryan Murphy (ARI) are all boom-or-bust offensive candidates as well that deserve consideration in GPPs. In general, the catcher position is one that doesn’t have a consensus great play on this slate.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) projects at the top of the first base options. Goldschmidt has a plus matchup against fly ball prone Wei Yin Chen who has allowed a .360 wOBA and .214 ISO to RHBs since 2017. Goldschmidt is priced appropriately but is a reasonable cash game spend should you choose him over the value first base options.

The challenge for Goldschmidt is the next highest projected first base option is Logan Morrison (MIN) who squares off with James Shields (.345 wOBA, .222 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2017). Morrison is affordable and owns a .343 wOBA and .257 ISO against RHP since the start of last season. On both sites, Morrison floods optimals because of the combination of price tag and projection.

Matt Olson (OAK) and Joe Mauer (MIN) project a bit behind Morrison. Olson has a great matchup with Mike Fiers but is caught in pricing limbo. Mauer is cheap like Morrison but lacks the power upside. Olson is the more intriguing GPP target simply because of the upside but Mauer is routinely un-owned in GPPs and thus a fine target.

The position has plenty of other power upside targets. Trey Mancini (BAL) is affordable and facing fly ball oriented Wade LeBlanc in a park that is friendly for home runs. Cody Bellinger (LAD) has been red hot of late with a 36+ percent hard hit rate over his last 15. Finally, Greg Bird (NYY) has power upside against Zach Eflin who historically has struggled against LHBs.

Second Base

Brian Dozier (MIN) tops the projections at second base as the Twins have a 4.9 implied total against James Shields and a bad White Sox bullpen. Dozier’s been showing signs of life of late with an increased hard hit rate and he remains cheap on DraftKings at $3,800. Dee Gordon (SEA) projects similarly to Dozier as a leadoff hitter for the Mariners who have a 4.9 implied total against Alex Cobb. With Gordon notably cheaper on FanDuel, he’s the preferred target for value. These two are the most consistent values on both sites and our primary cash game targets.

On FanDuel, Jose Pirela (SD) is really cheap if he garners a good lineup spot. At just $2,400 with the platoon edge against Mike MInor, Pirela has nice power upside (.359 wOBA, .177 ISO against LHP since 2017). Pirela is a fine target in tournaments as a salary relief option regardless of lineup spot.

Jonathan Schoop (BAL), Ian Kinsler (LAA), and Yoan Moncada (CHW) are also secondary targets at second base that make for fine tournament plays. Outside of Dozier, Schoop has the highest projected ISO split of the second basemen while Moncada and Kinsler are leadoff hitters against average opposing starters in good park environments.

Third Base

Eduardo Escobar (MIN), Matt Carpenter (STL), Adrian Beltre (TEX), Kyle Seager (SEA), and Jose Ramirez (CLE) form a deep first tier of third base options. Throw in a nice value with Danny Valencia (BAL) against Wade LeBlanc in Baltimore and there are plenty of options at different price levels for the position.

Escobar is the most intriguing with a .356 wOBA and .225 ISO over his last 517 PAs against RHP and a matchup with James Shields who really struggles against LHBs. Escobar typically hits in the middle of the order and he’s got a 30+ percent hard hit rate of late. Escobar checks all the boxes.

Kyle Seager (SEA) is underpriced on both sites and the matchup with Alex Cobb is solid (.327 wOBA, .179 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2017). Seager’s basically the fallback if you can’t quite fit Escobar in.

Valencia is the punt play at the position if you really need to prioritize salary relief. We expect he’ll hit in the middle of the order against LHP. Valencia has been a lefty masher throughout his career and since the start of last season he’s posted a .349 wOBA and .179 ISO against LHP. LeBlanc has been solid against RHBs (.289 wOBA, .161 ISO allowed in last 388 PAs) but we don’t expect he’ll hold that kind of dominant reverse platoon.

Matt Carpenter (STL) gets lost a bit with pricing on this slate but has the highest hard hit rate over the last 15 days of any third basemen. He’s a fine target in tournaments. Christian Villanueva (SD) has smashed LHPs (.508 wOBA, .494 ISO in last 87 PAs) in a small sample and is affordable against Mike Minor in Texas. He’s also a strong tournament target.

Third base is extremely deep as Adrian Beltre (TEX), Luis Valbuena (LAA), and Jeimer Candelario (DET) are also tournament targets. Beltre should command some ownership with the Padres hefty implied total but Valbuena and Candelario should go unowned.

Shortstop

Manny Machado (BAL) is the top projected shortstop and by a wide margin. The price gap between Machado and the rest of the shortstops is modest on FanDuel which makes him the clear cut target. Machado has the platoon edge against Wade LeBlanc at home.

On DraftKings, the pricing gap is wider between some of Machado’s counterparts. Elvis Andrus (TEX) is just $4,000 which is a solid price tag for a second place hitter on a team with an implied total approaching five on the slate. Andrus hasn’t hit much since returning from the DL and salary relief isn’t a big issue if you play mid-tier starting pitching so our preference leans with Machado or Eduardo Escobar (MIN).

In tournaments, Didi Gregorius (NYY), Jean Segura (SEA), Xander Bogaerts (BOS), and Francisco Lindor (CLE) are all viable targets on a slate where salary relief at shortstop isn’t necessary.

Outfield

Mike Trout (LAA) and Mookie Betts (BOS) form the top tier on their own. Neither has a great matchup but both are in a great hitting environment in Boston. Betts has the platoon edge against a solid starter in Andrew Heaney but one who has struggled with RHBs (.346 wOBA, .251 ISO allowed since 2017) and is getting a big park downgrade. With Trout banged up of late (hand injury keeping him from playing the field), our intuition is a slight preference towards Betts if you’re spending all the way up. Some iterations on DraftKings may allow you to access both.

J.D. Martinez (BOS), Wil Myers (SD), and Eddie Rosario (MIN) form the second tier of outfield options. Myers, once again, has a spectacular price tag on FanDuel ($2,800) that makes him a strong target with the platoon edge in Arlington.

Dustin Fowler (OAK) remains cheap on FanDuel ($2,700) with a friendly matchup against Mike Fiers. Fowler and teammate Matt Joyce (OAK) are both solid sources of salary relief. Manuel Margot (SD) and Hunter Renfroe (SD) remain affordable with the platoon edge and strong lineup spots in Texas. Renfroe has compiled a .420 wOBA and .327 ISO against LHP since 2017 while Margot has been more average (.330 wOBA, .183 ISO) but also adds some base-running value that helps his DFS projection. If Max Kepler (MIN) were to land in a good lineup spot, he’d also project as a nice punt play on FanDuel against James Shields.

Those options are all pretty affordable on DraftKings should you choose to spend more on pitching and need the salary relief outfield options. They’re all solid plays.

In tournaments, most of the outfield positions we’re interested in targeting are just cycling through some of the stronger stacks. Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, and Seattle outfielders are all solid tournament targets as we expect the high priced OFs like Betts/Martinez/Trout will command hefty ownerships on this slate.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Minnesota Twins

2) Oakland Athletics

3) San Diego Padres

4) Seattle Mariners

This tier one of stacks is worthy of a double take, but with no clear combination of elite offense/park/bad pitching, the stack rankings are clustered tighter than usual. That allows some teams we don’t generally see up here to sneak to the top.

The Twins top our stack rankings with a large positive park shift into Chicago and a matchup against James Shields, who has by most metrics pitched worse than the last two seasons even if the surface results say otherwise. The Twins are underrated from a depth of power perspective, possessing five hitters with a park unadjusted ISO baseline against RHP of .193 or better.

Oakland is a bit more known for the depth of power in their lineup, and they beat the Twins on the ends (higher power top end guys, higher power low end guys). In an underrated park for offense, the A’s will face Mike Fiers who is allowing over 1.8 HR/9 for the second straight season, the result of allowing so many balls in play, many of the hard-hit aerial variety.

A theme with these tier one offenses is a positive park shift and guaranteed nine innings. That continues with the Padres on the road in Texas, this time to face Mike Minor and his .365 xwOBA / .273 xISO. With margot and Myers back, there’s underrated event upside especially in terms of power for the heavily right-handed Padres.

The Mariners make it 4-4 for road teams with pretty sizable positive park shifts as they travel to Baltimore. By a narrow margin, the Mariners possess the highest IRT of this tier at 4.9. Alex Cobb has a .358 xwOBA. He’s started to miss a few more bats recently but continues to struggle in the quality of contact department.

Tier Two

 

5) New York Yankees

6) Boston Red Sox

Elite AL East offenses and usual faces in tier one make up the second tier of stacks for this slate. The Yankees are in a decent risk/reward spot against Zach Eflin, who is missing more bats and has a better Hard-Soft% than last season. However, Eflin does have a career 1.62 HR/9 and most projections systems have him closer to that mark than his current 0.72 figure.

The Red Sox carry the highest IRT on the slate at 5.1. It’s a tricky spot as they’re set up to mash LHP at home, especially with the wind blowing out to LC. At the same time, Andrew Heaney has been stellar this year, seeing a improved K, BB, and GB rates relative to his career marks. The biggest issue with this tier is you’d be paying a higher cost for a lower stack score at what we think might be similar ownership to tier one.

Tier Three

 

7) Baltimore Orioles

8) Texas Rangers

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