Welcome to June 28 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 28 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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June 28 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:04 Starting Pitcher
12:02 First Base
15:59 Second Base
18:59 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
June 28 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Stephen Strasburg (WSH) is our top projected scorer at the starting pitcher position. His 3.7 IRTA is the lowest in this slate, as he’s at home in a matchup against the Chicago Cubs. As we mentioned yesterday, this is a matchup we thought would be much tougher for SPs but it certainly hasn’t met expectations. They’re ranked 24th as an offense vs. RHP with a middling K%. Strasburg isn’t a difficult fit and it’s a more watered down position than last night, making him the clear cash game target at the position around the industry.
From a cash game perspective, no one can compete with Strasburg from a projection standpoint on a single SP site. On DK where you need to find a suitable complement next to Strasburg, Rick Porcello (BOS) and Trevor Bauer (CLE) need to be considered. Both will come with run prevention concerns. Porcello’s GB rate has dropped to 37% this season and his hard hit% allowed is the highest of his career (43.2%). Bauer’s hard minus soft hit rate is sitting at 23% this season. This sort of contact has led to wretched run prevention for both pitchers, but they’re missing bats and have good matchups for Ks (especially for Bauer – Texas is striking out 23.8% of the time vs. RHP, which is the fifth worst mark in the league). Bauer has generated a 26.6% K rate this season while Porcello’s is less meaningful (21%) but comes with a bigger SwStr rate (10% – highest of his career). Most importantly, these two have really cheap price tags on DK. Luis Perdomo (SD) fits the same profile as these pitchers – run prevention is shaky, but solid matchup at home and cheap. He comes with less meaningful K upside, but the GB rate here is incredible (65% this season).
From a tournament perspective, you can get a little more creative with Carlos Rodon (CWS). It’s a terrible matchup (Yankees) and it’s also Rodon’s first start of the season (he was awful in his minor league rehab starts), but he’s been a K per inning pitcher at the major league level and he’s cheap. Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) is a viable mid-tier play in tournaments. He comes with similar run prevention concerns as Porcello/Bauer/Perdomo (IRTA is 4.5 runs), but the matchup is strong and he’s unlikely to carry big ownership. John Lackey (CHC), Alex Meyer (LAA), Daniel Norris (DET) and Blake Snell (TB) are other targets with decent K upside that carry cheap prices and are viable as secondary tournament targets.
Martin has found himself moved into the second spot of the Blue Jays order, and he’ll draw the platoon edge on Wade Miley as the Blue Jays have the highest implied run total on the slate. Though some of the other Blue Jays might be better known for their prowess against southpaws, Martin has been more than serviceable, posting a .193 ISO since 2015.
Avila will come with the same lineup spot and will draw the platoon edge on the fly ball oriented Ian Kennedy. It’s bound to regress, but Avila has posted a .266 ISO in the early going this season – flashing some upside we didn’t know he had.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) is the top value on FanDuel at $3,700 where he’ll hold the platoon edge on Carlos Rodon. Though he’s tough to work into the cash game conversation on DraftKings, he’s firmly in play on FanDuel. Yasmani Grandal (LAD) would be another potential salary relief option, particularly on FanDuel.
A loaded first base position has us looking in a few different directions depending on the site you play. Hanley Ramirez (BOS) rates as a great value on both sites against a left-hander in Adalberto Mejia, but some uncertainty as to his health leaves us waiting on confirmation he’ll start.
For the time being then, we’re looking to Eric Thames (MIL) and Miguel Cabrera (DET). Thames has shown a great power potential all season long, and will hold the platoon advantage on young right-hander Luis Castillo. Not only will Thames get the platoon edge, but he also will get the luxury of a great hitting environment in Great American Ball Park. After a small dip after his outrageous start, he’s posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days.
For Miguel Cabrera, the price is just too low. He’s only $3,500 on DraftKings, an absurdly low price tag for one of the best hitter’s of the last decade – who is still producing. Kennedy has not only struggled with the home run ball, but also with command this season. Falling behind Miggy is a bad idea.
A pair of dueling second basemen top our model at the position in Dustin Pedroia (BOS) and Brian Dozier (MIN). Pedroia lacks the event upside he once had, but he remains rather cheap ($2,800 on FanDuel, $3,200 on DraftKings). He’ll give you access to the top of the Red Sox order against Adalberto Mejia, and that’s about reason enough to use him.
Dozier comes with much more event upside against Rick Porcello, who has seen his ground ball rate dip this year while, not coincidentally, his HR/9 has risen. The $4,600 tag on DraftKings might be a bit steep for cash games, but at just $3,300 on FanDuel, he is the preferred option.
A few other options pop up when getting a bit more site specific. Rougned Odor (TEX) is just $3,100 on DraftKings where he’ll face Trevor Bauer. He might not come with a great lineup spot, but he does have potential power upside, something that lacks for most players at the position.
Alen Hanson (CHW) might get a chance to leadoff, he’s just $2,300 on FanDuel. And both Jason Kipnis (CLE) and Chase Utley (LAD) should hit near the top of their orders, though neither matchup or environment is entirely enticing.
Josh Donaldson (TOR) is far and away the top 3B option on today’s slate. He’ll get the already mentioned matchup with Wade Miley, and though his teammates are serviceable against LHP, Donaldson is certifiably dangerous – posting a .414 wOBA and .280 ISO against southpaws since 2015. Furthermore, the price tag is firmly in reach at just $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel.
It’s a decent dip down from Donaldson where you’ll find some site specific values. On DraftKings, Manny Machado (BAL) and Wilmer Flores (NYM) creep into the conversation at sub-$4,000. Machado draws a tough matchup with the ground ball heavy Marcus Stroman, but he’s posted a 40% Hard% in the last fifteen days and is far too skilled to be under $4,000.
Flores though will draw the platoon advantage on Jeff Locke. A familiar play against LHP, Flores has posted a .398 wOBA and .280 ISO against LHP since 2015.
Kris Bryant (CHC) has been very bad in recent weeks (3.8% Hard% in L15) but he’s only $3,200 on FanDuel. Miguel Sano (MIN) represents a more attractive tournament option against Rick Porcello, who has struggled with the long ball this season.
Instead, we’re trying to find a semblance of value at a rather weak position behind the aforementioned duo. Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) joins a company of Blue Jays against Wade Miley, and he’s just $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel. On FanDuel where the conversation allows for talk on Bogaerts, you’ll also get Francisco Lindor (CLE) at just $3,000. Lindor has not been great of late (negative delta in hard% over last fifteen days) and the matchup with Yu Darvish isn’t “noteworthy” but Darvish has struggled a bit more with command this year and has allowed a career high in hard contact.
Eric Sogard (MIL) is intriguing at $3,000 on FanDuel as well, but it’s difficult to justify paying for him over Lindor, even with a better matchup against a young right-hander. If you needed more savings on FanDuel, Orlando Arcia (MIL) and Jose Peraza (CIN) are two viable punts with bad lineup spots that are intriguing given their environment and decent individual upside.
For the second night in a row, a pair of Red Sox top the outfield in terms of value. Both Mookie Betts (BOS) and Chris Young (BOS) rate as top outfield values on both FanDuel and DraftKings and will hold the platoon edge on Adalberto Mejia. Mejia has danced around some damage in starts this season, but he has not been good, walking nearly six hitters per nine while allowing 1.77 HR/9 and pitching to a 5.34 xFIP. Mookie’s price actually dropped on DraftKings to just $5,000, making him a more conceivable cash game option.
Josh Reddick (HOU) and a whole host of players from Great American Ball Park: Adam Duvall (CIN), Domingo Santana (MIL), and Billy Hamilton (CIN) follow up in a tier just behind Betts and Young. All of these options will come as great per dollar plays, particularly on FanDuel, but more important they come in great park environments and with middling price tags that will allow for a variety of builds with them. Santana and the Brewers will face the electric stuff of young Luis Castillo, but he struggled with putting runners on base in his first start and that’s a recipe for disaster in Great American Ball Park.
Hamilton and Duvall will get Chase Anderson, a fly ball arm who has out pitched his peripherals and a 4.34 xFIP via his ERA with help and thanks to a top-15 strand rate. At $3,900 and $4,300 on DraftKings respectively, the duo is a bit less valuable – but with the ability to pay down for a second starting pitcher there should be enough cap room to work with.
We’ve touched on the Blue Jays as a team against Wade Miley, but Stanton fits the same mold with absurd numbers against LHP (.427 wOBA, .386 ISO against LHP since 2015). Steven Matz has only made three starts but has seen a lower GB% and has been stung by the long ball in those three starts, a scary trend when needing to face Stanton and left-handed mashing teammate, Marcell Ozuna (MIA).
1) Boston Red Sox
2) Toronto Blue Jays
No surprise here. The Red Sox have the highest IRT on the slate (5.8 runs), while the Blue Jays have an IRT of 5.6 runs. Both offenses are at home in great hitting environment (Fenway and Rogers Centre) facing subpar starting pitchers/bullpens. It’s also not difficult to have access to either offense on both sites and still get access to Strasburg. They’ll be chalky and there are ways to differentiate in tournaments, but you’re eating the chalk in cash games.
3) Milwaukee Brewers
Event team facing a rookie SP in Cincinnati. This rookie SP looks to be one of the bright spot in a subpar rotation, but the bullpen behind him has ugly parts to it if you can get to it early in the game and the environment is great. When Milwaukee is creating points in DFS, it’s usually through events. This is a good offense to attack in tournaments.
4) Washington Nationals
5) Houston Astros
6) New York Yankees
7) Cincinnati Reds
Even in the third tier of offenses, we’re still left with deep offenses like the Nationals, Astros and the Yankees studs with the platoon edge in Chicago. They have appropriate price tags around the industry, but we love their upside in tournaments. The Reds are the odd man out of this group as their offense isn’t as deep, but they’re at home facing a pitcher that’s a big regression candidate (Chase Anderson – 2.92 ERA/4.34 xFIP) and they have pieces that can create upside with speed (Billy Hamilton) and power (Votto, Schebler, Duvall).
Additional Tournament Stacks
-Los Angeles Dodgers – Alex Meyer has allowed a .360 wOBA and .189 ISO to LHBs. It’s not a huge sample (he’s faced less than 160 LHBs), but the wide splits and a matchup against this deep Dodgers lineup that’s full of LHBs with power opens the door for upside.
-Miami Marlins – Steven Matz has some ugly peripherals, including a 5.2% SwStr rate. The Marlins’ lineup bodes better vs. LHP with Stanton (insane production/baseline vs. LHP), Ozuna and Realmuto getting the platoon edge.