Daily Fantasy Rundown – June 28th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Only trouble game could be the night game in STL.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – Lucroy and the Brewers are a focal point of our content on Sunday. They face Tommy Milone who has allowed a .326 wOBA and 1.27 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. Milone has generally pitched in favorable environments and on Sunday is forced to pitch in a park that inflates home runs 9-10 percent above the league average. For a fly ball pitcher like Milone (39.6 percent GB Rate against RHBs since 2012), this is a huge challenge. The Brewers are also an exceptionally talented offense against LHP. Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, and Jonathan Lucroy all own a wOBA above .360 and an ISO above .195 against LHP since 2012. Lucroy is on the lower end of those spectrums (.378 wOBA, .196 ISO) which is phenomenal for a catcher. All four of the Brewers primary RHBs rank inside our Top 20 hitters and Lucroy comes with the friendliest price tag at the thinnest position. Lucroy’s last off day was last Saturday which brings some risk but we should have a Brewers lineup well before lock.
Wilson Ramos (WAS) – Ramos isn’t as dynamic of a hitter against RHP as Lucroy is against LHP but he garners a very favorable matchup in game one of Sunday’s doubleheader. Kevin Correia has allowed a .334 wOBA, 32.2 percent hard hit rate, and 1.12 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. Ramos owns just a .315 wOBA against RHP but an impressive .171 ISO since 2012. With the Nationals injuries, Ramos has earned favorable lineup spots of late and he comes with an affordable price point. He’s well below Lucroy in our model rankings (Top 60-ish hitter), but a viable alternative if Lucroy gets a day off.
Yasmani Grandal (LAD) – Grandal’s price point and lineup spot vary wildly, so it’s difficult to pinpoint his value. The Dodgers have a favorable matchup against Jose Urena who has shown no ability to miss bats at the big league level (5.6 K Rate vs. LHBs) and has allowed a .332 wOBA along with a 30.5 percent hard hit rate. Grandal is a good hitter against RHP. He’s compiled a .357 wOBA and .188 ISO as a big leaguer against righties. The lineup spot varies but Grandal occasionally sneaks into a premium spot and the Dodgers lineup is very good against RHP (league leading 121 wRC+). Grandal ranks inside our Top 80 overall hitters and represents another secondary target.
Additional catcher notes: Buster Posey (SF) is our highest rated catcher after Lucroy but comes with a price tag that is challenging in cash games. Brian McCann (NYY), Matt Wieters (BAL), Russell Martin (TOR), and Stephen Vogt (OAK) are all compelling tournament options. The first three get favorable ballparks and are parts of explosive offenses while Vogt gets an elite matchup in a tough park against homer prone Jeremy Guthrie. The price points on all of those options aren’t particularly compelling but that should hold ownership down. I think Vogt has the highest individual power upside of the group while the other options are better as a part of stacks or mini-stacks on those high powered offenses.
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) – The Blue Jays have the highest implied run total of any team in action on Sunday and it’s by a relatively wide margin (5.3 runs, next closest is 4.6 and 4.5 runs). Encarnacion is an elite hitter against RHP (.382 wOBA, .268 ISO since 2012) and he faces a contact oriented rookie pitcher. Chi Chi Gonzalez has earned good results (2.27 ERA) but the component skills have been miserable. He’s walked more batters (9.1 percent) than he’s struck out (7.7 percent) but a .209 BABIP has kept him out of trouble. He does generate ground balls (52 percent) and so far he’s limited hard contact (23.9 percent) but it’s hard to imagine he can maintain success with so many balls in play. Encarnacion is expensive and first base is always deep, but he’s our top option at the position if you’re spending up.
Chris Davis (BAL) – Davis is the definition of boom-or-bust on Sunday. He’s facing Trevor Bauer who has a healthy 21.3 K Rate against LHBs but has also allowed a 40.8 FB Rate and 1.01 HR/9 since 2012. Davis owns a .376 wOBA against RHP but his value is really built off a .275 ISO. He strikes out a ton (31.6 percent) which means we could easily see a 0-4 with three strikeouts against Bauer, but Bauer’s fly ball tendencies suit Davis’ power well. Our model really likes the power upside but admittedly any projection settling on a number isn’t taking into account the wide range of outcomes. The price is fair for Davis and he cracks our Top 15 hitters, but I’m more likely to mix him in than go all-in on Davis in cash games.
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) – Gonzalez owns a solid .366 wOBA and .199 ISO against RHP since 2012 but he’s been even better this season (.401 wOBA, .244 ISO). He draws a favorable matchup with Jose Urena who projects as one of the weaker starters on the mound on Sunday. The upside for Gonzalez isn’t as high as some of his counterparts given the lower run scoring environment, but I think he’s a first basemen with a high probability of success on Sunday. The price on DraftKings is inflated, but on FanDuel he’s got a very nice tag ($3,000).
Brandon Belt (SF) – Belt is a terribly underrated hitter overall because he plays in one of the worst park environments in all of baseball. San Francisco plays a bit more hitter friendly during the day and he’s facing Kyle Kendrick (.334 wOBA, 1.09 HR/9 allowed since 2012) in what classifies as a plus matchup. Belt has posted a .363 wOBA and .191 ISO against RHP since 2012. He also ranks within our Top 15 overall hitters and comes with a very reasonable price point around the industry.
Lucas Duda (NYM) – Duda has been in an extended funk that has really pushed his price tag down. In June he’s hit just .177/.298/.266 and he’s racked up 24 strikeouts in 79 at bats. He’ll get a favorable matchup on Sunday as he’ll face Josh Smith making his second major league start. Smith is a non-prospect that was pounded by the Pirates in his debut. In AAA this year, he posted a solid 3.56 ERA but didn’t miss many bats (17.7 percent K Rate) and the projection systems aren’t optimistic on his outlook (ZiPS is calling for a 4.81 ERA rest of season). Duda’s slump has brought about a friendly price point and his overall skill set lands him inside our Top 15 hitters overall. The recent cold streak has me admittedly treating him more like a Top 25 option than a Top 15 hitter, but either way he’s discounted.
Additional first base notes: Prince Fielder (TEX) is the first basemen that falls a bit into a pricing limbo. We don’t mind the matchup against homer prone Drew Hutchison (.334 wOBA, 1.27 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012) but Fielder’s price point is close enough to Encarnacion on most sites that we’d rather stretch for Edwin and far enough away from the value plays that he gets lost in the shuffle. He’s the first basemen I’m most likely to spend on after Edwin, but it’s most likely coming in tournaments.
Jason Kipnis (CLE) – Kipnis rates as our top second base option and a Top 30 hitter overall but I see little reason to stretch your budget in cash games for Kipnis. He gets a huge park shift and faces a favorable matchup on paper. Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed a .335 wOBA and 1.23 HR/9 to LHBS since 2012. Jimenez is a very volatile starter who can flash dominant stuff and Kipnis’ price tag is astronomical. He’s a fine tournament option, but not a target for cash games.
Danny Espinosa (WAS) – Espinosa hit second last night against a RHP and with the Nationals battling injury issues, I think he’ll garner a strong lineup spot again on Sunday. Espinosa is a switch hitter so he holds the platoon advantage throughout the game and he’s facing one of the weakest starters in MLB. Espinosa isn’t a good hitter against RHP (.276 wOBA, .141 ISO) but he has hit LHP very well (.348 wOBA, .169 ISO). The reason I bring this up is if Span and Harper return, Espinosa could find himself sandwiched between two LHBs which would encourage late game plate appearances against LH relievers. We’re betting a bit on the overall lineup lifting Espinosa into premium plate appearances and the matchup with Kevin Correia overwhelming his relatively poor skill set. The Nationals have the second highest implied run total of the day and if Espinosa garners a favorable lineup spot, he’ll make for one of the better values at the second base position.
Rougned Odor (TEX) – Odor has earned strong lineup spots against RHP recently and Drew Hutchison has struggled against LHBs historically. Odor hasn’t been great against RHP (.306 wOBA) in his career but he’s flashed power potential (.158 ISO). In a park that inflates power considerably, a good lineup spot makes a very cheap Odor a strong value play. He cracks our Top 60 overall hitters.
Additional second base notes: Ben Zobrist (OAK) gets a plus matchup against Jeremy Guthrie but is fully priced around the industry. Like Stephen Vogt, his power upside earns tournament consideration but the price makes him difficult for cash games. Howie Kendrick (LAD) gets a favorable lineup spot in a Dodgers offense we’re bullish on for Sunday. We prefer Espinosa and Odor, but Kendrick is an acceptable secondary value and a nice part of mini-stacks or full Dodgers stacks in tournaments. Jimmy Paredes (BAL) has shown good power against RHP this season and has stolen base potential. Trevor Bauer cedes both home runs and stolen bases at an above average rate. While he has big strikeout potential, Bauer is also prone to big plays that aid DFS value. Like Chris Davis, Paredes is a more volatile secondary value play. Joe Panik (SF) is a bit overpriced for his overall skill set, but he seems like one of the safer second base options for positive points.
Jose Reyes (TOR) – While the Rockies have been on the road, the Blue Jays have run into a string of below average starters at home. As a result, Reyes has gotten comfortable in our top spot in the shortstop rankings. He remains an above average hitter against RHP (.336 wOBA, .131 ISO) and whatever speed component he has left primarily comes against righties. He’s priced appropriately but at a thin position is an easy entry point into the offense with the highest team total of the day.
Ian Desmond (WAS) – Desmond’s lineup spot has been very volatile over the last few weeks. With all the Nationals injuries, I’m hopeful he earns a premium spot on Sunday. He’s a solid hitter against RHP (.331 wOBA, .177 ISO since 2012) and we’ve established Kevin Correia is one of the weaker starters in all of baseball. Desmond is dirt cheap on FanDuel ($2,400) and generally underpriced after an extended period hitting towards the bottom of the lineup. He cracks our Top 30 overall hitters and isn’t ranked much behind Reyes. His overall value will ultimately hinge on that lineup spot, but he profiles very well.
Additional shortstop notes: Brandon Crawford (SF), Jean Segura (MIL), and J.J. Hardy (BAL) are all strong tournament plays. They’re generally priced fairly and have poor lineup spots, but all have favorable matchups. I think Segura is stronger as a part of mini-stacks or stacks for the Brewers while Crawford or Hardy can be used either as a solo stack filler or as part of their respective team stacks. They have the kind of power that can play alone. Jo Hung Kang (PIT) is the only other cash game shortstop I’d consider unless we get some funky lineup spots from the three tournament options mentioned above. He generally gets a great lineup spot (cleanup) on an offense that is very good against LHP. Kang has crushed LHP (.400 wOBA and .231 ISO) in his first 44 big league plate appearances. It’s a very small sample and Alex Wood is pretty solid, but the price and lineup spot earn him consideration as a secondary value. I’d probably only use him if Desmond gets a poor lineup spot and I’m looking for salary relief as opposed to spending on Reyes.
Aramis Ramirez (MIL) – Ramirez is one of those four elite Brewers bats against LHP that we’re targeting on Sunday. He’s compiled an impressive .407 wOBA and .295 ISO in 392 plate appearances against LHP since 2012. We’ve profiled Tommy Milone‘s struggles against RHBs and specifically power, which is a great matchup for Ramirez. He ranks inside our Top 15 hitters overall and is priced affordably all over the industry. The $3,600 price tag on DraftKings is particularly alluring.
Adrian Beltre/Joey Gallo (TEX) – Beltre cracks the Top 30 hitters in our model but admittedly I’m a bit concerned his struggles early this season may signal some deterioration in skill our baselines aren’t currently capturing. Beltre is 36 years old and he’s posting the lowest hard hit rate since 2009. It’s still adequate overall (30.3 percent) but he doesn’t control the strike zone well so he relies heavily on hard contact. Drew Hutchison has been adequate against RHBs (.317 wOBA, 31.1 percent hard hit rate allowed) but the great park environment and below average bullpen behind him make Beltre a viable alternative if Ramirez were to get a day off. Gallo comes at a similar price point and has a bigger power upside given Hutchison has allowed 1.27 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012). The key with Gallos’ DFS value relative to Beltre is where he hits in the order. If he’s fifth, I think he’s on par with Beltre, but at sixth he takes a slight step down.
Additional third base notes: Third base is loaded with good tournament options as a part of team stacks or mini-stacks. Josh Donaldson (TOR), Manny Machado (BAL), and Justin Turner (LAD) top the list while Josh Harrison (PIT), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), Chase Headley (NYY), and Luis Valbuena (HOU) are secondary options. Todd Frazier (CIN) is an interesting solo stack filler given a matchup with a LHP, but he’s one I’m less likely to deploy given the expected quality of top prospect Steven Matz.
Ryan Braun/Carlos Gomez (MIL) – Bryce Harper (WAS) and Jose Bautista (TOR) are the other top plays at the outfield position we’d target, but Braun and Gomez rank highest in our model and come with slightly discounted price points relative to the other two elite outfield options. Braun owns an incredible .423 wOBA and .300 ISO against LHP since 2012. Gomez isn’t quite the prolific bat (.363 wOBA, .231 ISO) but adds value with his speed. They rank first and second in our model for Sunday’s action and I’m aiming for at least one of the two in all my cash game lineups.
Starling Marte (PIT) – Marte has destroyed LHP in recent years, posting a .413 wOBA and .221 ISO against LHP. Like Carlos Gomez, he also adds some value with his legs. Alex Wood is a competent LHP, holding RHBs to a .306 wOBA and 0.76 HR/9 since 2012 but he’s been a bit more vulnerable this season (.338 wOBA) and the Braves bullpen behind him is atrocious. Marte ranks within our Top 30 hitters and he’s a bit discounted around the industry.
Shin Soo Choo/Mitch Moreland (TEX) – We’ve touched on Drew Hutchison‘s struggles with LHBs historically which opens up some cheap entry points to Rangers outfielders. Choo (.391 wOBA, .195 ISO), and Moreland (.335 wOBA, .199 ISO) both have shown good power against RHP historically. Choo typically garners the better lineup spot but his peripherals have been more vulnerable in recent years which makes the choice between the two more difficult. I’m leaning the extra potential plate appearances from Choo, but it’s very close.
Andre Ethier (LAD) – Ethier has hit fifth often against RHP and the Dodgers lineup is one we expect to generate premium plate appearances against Jose Urena. Ethier owns a .364 wOBA and .182 ISO against RHP since 2012 and he’s dirt cheap around the industry. The power upside isn’t substantial but he’s another good bet to grind out positive points in this matchup.
Additional outfield notes: Michael Brantley (CLE) and Denard Span (WAS) are uniquely cheap on FanDuel. Both are recommended site specific values on that site. Span has been dealing with back spasms so there is no guarantee he’ll be available, but the matchup with Correia is strong. Brantley gets a big park shift in his favor against the enigmatic Ubaldo Jimenez. Curtis Granderson (NYM) and Mark Trumbo (SEA) are the two value plays in the outfield with the biggest power upside. Trumbo, in particular, has a great matchup for power against Hector Santiago who has allowed 1.47 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. Clint Robinson (WAS) is a site specific value play on DraftKings where he’s priced like a punt. We’ll take almost any exposure we can get to premium lineup spots against Kevin Correia so if Robinson hits cleanup again, he’s an elite play on DraftKings. Michael Taylor (WAS) is also a viable value play if Denard Span is unable to go. Brandon Moss (CLE) is one of my favorite tournament plays in the outfield. His power profiles really well in Camden Yards.
Rankings (price not considered):
1a) Madison Bumgarner (SF)
1b) Zack Greinke (LAD)
1c) Chris Archer (TB)
4) Felix Hernandez (SEA)
5) David Price (DET)
6) Michael Pineda (NYY)
7) Carlos Martinez (STL)
8) Steven Matz (NYM)
9) Chase Anderson (ARZ)
10) Jason Hammel (CHC)
11) Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
12) Mike Fiers (MIL)
It’s “ace day” around the majors as we have no shortage of high end starting pitching. Madison Bumgarner (SF), Zack Greinke (LAD), and Chris Archer (TB) rank slightly ahead of Felix Hernandez (SEA) and David Price (DET) in our model. The Rockies and White Sox look like the most favorable matchups of the group. They rank 29th and 30th in wRC+ against LHP with elevated K Rates (25 percent for Colorado and 22.8 percent for the White Sox). The reason Price ranks a bit behind the first tier is a slight dip in peripherals (LD and hard hit rates are up, K Rate and GB Rates are down) and the White Sox project as a better offense than they’ve shown. Greinke and Archer get the benefit of facing watered down offenses in elite pitching environments. The Marlins are just not a threatening offense without Giancarlo Stanton and the Red Sox are without Pedroia and potentially Hanley Ramirez. Those absences push them higher in our model and separate a bit from Felix and Price. Bumgarner is the most secure top option and he could benefit from an afternoon lineup that doesn’t include Tulowitzki (given he played on Saturday after a night game). The price tags will often dictate my decisions among this tier, but with so much depth I’d prefer to keep my cash game decisions within this tier; even on multiple SP sites.
Michael Pineda (NYY) – As we saw yesterday with the Astros, their offense is filled with strikeout potential but also comes with great power and the risk of run prevention. Vegas has given the Astros an implied run total of four which is in a different tier than all the other starters we’re recommending. Pineda has been incredible most of the season but he’s struggled of late with two blow-up starts in his last three. The strikeout upside coupled with the matchup makes him a very intriguing option, especially at $7,500 on DraftKings, but I think he’s better reserved for tournaments or mixing in on multiple cash game lineups than going all in.
Steven Matz (NYM) – Matz was dominant in one of the most hitter friendly parks and leagues in the minors. He posted a 2.19 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a 26.2 K Rate. He’ll face a Reds offense that ranks eighth in wRC+ against LHP but is getting a park downgrade and Vegas has pegged them for just 3.5 runs. DraftKings did a nice job pricing Matz, but FanDuel has him hovering around the minimum. He’s an exceptional tournament play on both sites and if you’re willing to embrace risk can even earn cash game consideration. On a day with so many aces, his value gets a bit lost in the shuffle. On most other days, he’d represent one of our top targets in cash games at these prices. We believe strongly in his skill set.
Additional starting pitcher notes: Carlos Martinez (STL) is caught in pricing limbo and represents an elite tournament play because of it. The Cubs strike out a ton against RHP (24.9 percent) and they rank just 22nd in wRC+ against righties. They did rough up Martinez earlier in the season and they have that kind of offensive potential, but Martinez should also generate lots of strike outs in this matchup. I think he’s a bit overpriced for his skill set, but a fine play in tournaments. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) gets a great matchup with the Phillies watered down offense and he looked very strong in his return from the DL, but we’d like a better price point to invest. Chase Anderson (ARZ) is very cheap around the industry and gets a huge park shift in his favor against the Padres. Anderson hasn’t held the solid K Rates he demonstrated last season. With opportunity cost high, we think he’s only a tournament option even on multiple SP sites.
Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:
This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (email@example.com) if you have suggestions.
Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:
1) Toronto Blue Jays
2) Milwaukee Brewers
3) Washington Nationals
These are the three offenses we’ve focused most heavily on in the content. The Blue Jays are an expensive stack option but remain the team most likely to hit double digit runs on Sunday.
The Brewers are our favorite combination of price point and upside. They occasionally throw out some below average lineups on Sundays so we’ll want to confirm, but if the four premier RHBs are in the lineup; the offense presents tons of power upside.
The Nationals face arguably the weakest starter on the slate and they get the benefit of nine guaranteed offensive innings. The challenge is the injuries have really depleted their offense. We’d feel far more comfortable deploying a Nationals stack if Bryce Harper and Denard Span are able to go. Otherwise, we’re more likely to mini-stack a few value plays but not full stack.
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2) Texas Rangers
3) Pittsburgh Pirates
4) Camden Yards (Baltimore-Cleveland)
The Dodgers are the best offense in MLB against RHP with a 121 wRC+ and they’re facing one of the weakest RHPs in the league. The park shift is a negative for them but not a drastic one and the lineup has lots of depth to it. It doesn’t hurt that starter Zack Greinke is also an above average hitter for a pitcher.
The Rangers get to hit in the best offensive environment in play on Sunday and they’re facing a homer prone starter specifically to LHBs. Almost all of the appealing Rangers bats come from the left side so we’ve got some nice home run potential.
The Pirates are one of the under the radar stacks. The offense projects as an elite offense against LHP with McCutchen and Marte as truly elite hitters and Harrison, Cervelli, and Kang as nice supplementary pieces. The Braves also have the worst bullpen in the league. This recommendation hinges on McCutchen’s health (he was removed after a HBP yesterday) but if he’s able to play, we like the Pirates as a contrarian stack option. If McCutchen isn’t able to play, I’d remove the Pirates from consideration and replace them with the Giants.
Camden Yards is likely the second best hitting environment in play and both starters in the first game are vulnerable to blow-ups. The Orioles value hinges a bit on the health of their lineup, specifically Adam Jones, but I think the game as a whole is pretty stackable.
MLB Game Weather Forecasts
In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.
WSH at PHL 1:05: Dry. Temps in the mid-70s. Air density is a 7. Wind west-southwest 6-12 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.
TEX at TOR 1:07: Retractable roof. Showers around so the roof will likely be closed.
CHW at DET 1:08: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind northwest 7-14 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.
LAD at MIA 1:10: The retractable roof will likely be closed.
BOS at TB 1:10: Dome.
ATL at PIT 1:35: Widely scattered showers. I am not even expecting a delay. Temps in the low to mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-northwest 10-20 mph which blows out to center. The wind is an 8.
CLE at BLT 1:35: Dry. Temps in the mid-70s. Air density is a 7. Wind northwest 8-16 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
MIN at MIL 2:10: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind south-southeast 7-14 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4.
NYY at HOU 2:10: Retractable roof. Thunderstorms around so the roof will be closed.
CIN at NYM 2:10: Dry. Temps in the mid-70s. Air density is a 7. Wind west-northwest 7-14 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
SEA at LAA 3:35: Dry. Temps in the low 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind west-southwest 10-20 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is an 8.
KC at OAK 4:05: Dry. Temps in the low 70s. Air density is a 6 or a 7. Wind west-northwest 10-20 mph which blows out to right. The wind is an 8.
COL at SF 4:05: Dry. Temps in the low 70s. Air density is a 6 or a 7. Wind west-northwest 12-20 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is an 8.
WSH at PHL 4:05: Dry. Temps in the mid-70s falling to near 70. Air density is a 7. Wind west-southwest 5-10 mph becoming nearly calm. The wind blows out to right. The wind is a 6.
AZ at SD 4:10: Dry. Temps in the mid-70s. Air density is a 7. Wind northwest 8-16 mph which blows on from left. The wind is a 3.
CLE at BLT 7:05: Dry. Temps in the mid-70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west-northwest 6-12 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.
CHC at STL 8:00: The last game is the trouble game. A 30% chance of thunderstorms. Worst case scenario: thunderstorm(s) sit near the stadium and drown the field (10 to maybe 20% chance of that) and result in a cancellation. Best case scenario: thunderstorms didge the area and they play with no issues (30% chance of that). Most likely scenario is that there are delay(s) (50-60% chance of that). Temps near 80 falling into the mid-70s. Air density is a 7. Wind southwest 8-16 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7.