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June 29 MLB DFS: Avisail’s Away
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Welcome to June 29 MLB DFS action. You’ll find Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for June 29 MLB DFS along with LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using the customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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Time Stamps
00:42 
Starting Pitcher
17:02 Catcher
21:13 First Base
26:17 Second Base
30:15 Third Base
34:55 Shortstop
37:53 Outfield
48:17 Stacks

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  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

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Range of Outcome Projections

June 29 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

Gerrit Cole (HOU), Jacob deGrom (NYM), and Trevor Bauer (CLE) are atop the starting projections on Friday’s monstrous slate.

Cole and deGrom both have strong matchups on the road in spacious parks with controlled conditions that helps limit home runs in the summer months. Cole faces the Rays who rank 14th in wRC+ against RHP with a slightly above league average K Rate. Their offense is improved with Kevin Kiermaier back and Jake Bauers promoted but those two LHBs actually help Cole’s projection a bit more given his dominance against LHBs this season (41.9 K Rate). We also already know Cole’s umpire assignment and it’s a favorable one for starting pitchers. deGrom faces the Marlins who rank 24th in wRC+ against RHP with an above average K Rate (23.7 percent). The matchup could improve if J.T. Realmuto remains out with a lingering wrist issue. Cole has been the slightly stronger strikeout pitcher this season and that’s largely what is separating the two in projection on this slate. Cole is slightly cheaper, has the lower implied total, and is the bigger favorite. All these things add up to a slight preference for Cole as the cash game building block on this slate.

Cole and deGrom project a bit more favorably than Bauer who has a higher implied total against (3.5) and a worse park for strikeouts. Bauer’s been incredible of late with a 40+ percent K rate in four of the last six starts and at least a 32 percent K Rate in all of those starts. Bauer’s a fine pivot in tournaments with expected low ownership.

Patrick Corbin (ARI) is the next highest projected starter and he’s in a tier of his own. Corbin’s velocity has rebounded slightly after concerning dips earlier in the season but he’s still not all the way back. He’s adapted well since the big drop on May 3rd but isn’t as dominant as he was in April. In 10 starts since the velocity drop he’s posted a 3.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP while striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. He’s not working quite as deep and he comes with a bit more run prevention risk but the K upside has still been there. He’s an interesting tournament pivot on FanDuel where the gap between his price and the studs is wide. On DraftKings, the smaller gap makes him less compelling.

Marcus Stroman (TOR), Joe Musgrove (PIT), Rich Hill (LAD), Marco Gonzales (SEA), and Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) form a deep and intriguing mid-tier.

Stroman is the cheapest and projects the best for us against a primarily RH heavy Detroit lineup that ranks 25th in wRC+ against RHP with a league average K Rate. Stroman has a low implied total against (3.7) and is a huge favorite (-175). He’s historically been able to miss a few more bats against RHBs (20.5 K Rate) but most importantly the price tag helps mitigate the heavy cost of the SP1 tier. He’s our preferred pairing in cash games with one of Cole/deGrom. On FanDuel, he’s an interesting tournament target with a cheap tag that allows you to load up on bats.

The rest of the tier has slightly more expensive options with higher K upside. Joe Musgrove is the best combination of price and stability with a terrific matchup against the Padres who rank 27th in wRC+ against RHP with the second highest K Rate in the league (26 percent). Musgrove is coming off two rough outings and the implied total is a bit higher than we’d expect, but the price and matchup are fine to target in tournaments.

Rich Hill (LAD) and Marco Gonzales (SEA) have the lowest implied total of the tier at 3.3 runs and both are big favorites at home in spacious parks. Gonzales is the biggest favorite on the slate at -215 against the hapless Royals’ offense. These two are polar opposites as Gonzales ability to command the zone allows him to work deeper into games and he misses just enough bats to brings some intriguing DFS value even as the price tag reaches closer to $8,000. Hill is a wild card but has the kind of dominating stuff that has generated double digit strikeout performances in the past. Hill’s velocity has been down a bit this season and the K rate has come down with it. We view Gonzales as a more stable piece but Hill with a bit more upside if everything clicks. Both are viable in tournaments and Gonzales would be a fine cash game alternative to Stroman if you’re unconcerned with the $1,500 difference.

Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) is the scariest of the mid-tier with the highest price tag and the difficult matchup against the Yankees. He’s tournament viable in MME but not a priority.

There are some cheap targets for MME as well like Felix Pena (LAA) who has shown good strikeout upside in limited appearances and faces a strikeout prone Orioles lineup or Sal Romano (CIN) who has been solid against RHBs but tortured by LHBs. The Brewers could have a watered down lineup after Christian Yelich left last night’s game early. Sandy Alcantara (MIA) is a cheap Marlins’ prospect that came over in the Ozuna trade. His performance in the minors has not lived up to the prospect status but he has a low implied total against at home against the Mets. Our favorite of the bunch however is Erick Fedde (WAS) who faces a strikeout prone Phillies lineup and has a very favorable home plate umpire.

Catcher

Buster Posey (SF) and Russell Martin (TOR) represent the top projected scorers at the catcher position. Both will have the platoon edge in their respective matchups. Posey has been excellent against LHP (.381 wOBA, .195 ISO vs. LHP since the start of last season), but it’s not an exciting price tag to attack on DK ($4k) given the context (on the road in Arizona facing Patrick Corbin).

Martin is the one our optimals have gone after given the cheap DK price tag ($2,900). He has much better context than Posey’s, as he’ll be in Rogers Centre facing Francisco Liriano (.357 wOBA, .185 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2017). All things considered, Martin is the preferred play in all formats.

A cheap alternative to consider on DK is Kevan Smith (CHW). Smith isn’t a good hitter, but he hits fifth in the White Sox lineup, he’ll be on the road in Arlington where temperatures will be in the mid 90s tonight and he’s facing Yovani Gallardo (.370 wOBA, .216 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2017).

John Ryan Murphy (ARI), Tucker Barnhart (CIN) and Yasmani Grandal (LAD) are appropriately priced on DK but they’re viable in tournaments.

First Base

Eric Thames (MIL) is the top projected scorer at first base. He’s in Cincinnati leading off with the platoon edge and gets a matchup against Sal Romano, who’s allowed a .194 ISO to LHBs since the start of last season. It’s a phenomenal context for Thames, who’s slugged a .389 wOBA and .296 ISO vs. RHP since 2017. The price tag is elevated on DK ($5k), but he’s still underpriced on FD ($3,900) where he’ll be an easier fit in cash games.

On FD, you could double down with Jose Abreu (CHW), who’s also underpriced. Abreu is $3,300 on FD and he’s in Arlington tonight facing Yovani Gallardo. Abreu has generated a .349 wOBA and .219 ISO vs. RHP since 2017. The price tag is fair for his skills vs. RHP, but once you layer in the context, Abreu comes out as one of the better values in this slate on FD. He’s also been the most consistent first basemen in our optimals on DK where the price tag is also favorable ($4,300).

If you need more salary relief on DK, Kendrys Morales (TOR) and Luis Valbuena (LAA) are viable targets. These two have power upside – Morales has generated a .201 ISO vs. LHP and Valbuena has slugged a .215 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season. They’re also in above average contexts – Morales is facing Francisco Liriano in Rogers Centre and Valbuena will have the platoon edge against David Hess in Camden Yards.

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI), Joey Votto (CIN) and Joey Gallo (TEX) (on DK) are high upside targets with the platoon edge that are viable in tournaments. Goldschmidt stands out more given his own production vs. LHP (.414 wOBA, .307 ISO since 2017) and a matchup against Andrew Suarez (.372 wOBA, .184 ISO allowed to RHBs).

Second Base

With Jose Altuve (HOU) in a matchup against a right handed Rays’ “opener” and Ozzie Albies (ATL) facing a good pitcher (Miles Mikolas), it’s Yoan Moncada‘s (CHW) turn to represent the keystone position with the top projection. Moncada is on the road in Arlington and gets to leadoff for a White Sox offense that has an IRT that’s approaching five runs. Moncada has generated a .208 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season, which stands out at the position. The cherry on top is a matchup against Yovani Gallardo, who’s allowed a .354 wOBA and .197 ISO to LHBs since 2017. We’re pursuing Moncada in all formats on both sites, though his price tag on FD ($3,300) will make it difficult to consider anyone else in cash games at the position.

Ian Kinsler (LAA) is a road leadoff hitter in Camden Yards tonight. He’s $3,800 on DK, which is a cheaper price tag than Moncada’s ($4,500). Moncada is a better hitter at this point than Kinsler, but that wider salary gap between the two on that site keeps Kinsler in play in all formats.

On FD, Rougned Odor (TEX) is a fine sub $3k option at the position. He’ll have the platoon edge against Dylan Covey, who’s improved this season. Vegas wasn’t kind to Covey in this heat though, giving him an IRTA of 5.6. Odor has a .285 wOBA with the platoon edge since the start of last season, which is disappointing, but he continues to hit for power (.195 ISO). Odor is the only alternative we’re interested in on FD from a cash game perspective.

Josh Harrison (PIT), Dee Gordon (SEA) and Jurickson Profar (TEX) are intriguing contrarian pivots in this slate that come with reasonable price tags.

Third Base

Matt Carpenter (STL) carries the top projection at third base. Carpenter gets a favorable matchup against Julio Teheran, who’s allowed a .343 wOBA and .209 ISO to LHBs since the start of last season. He’s also been ridiculously hot of late, generating a slate high 50% (!) HHR over the L15 days. Carpenter is priced up as a result, but we remain intrigued in tournaments.

Jose Ramirez (CLE) is the next in line option at the position. He’s been remarkable vs. RHP (.415 wOBA, .299 ISO since 2017) but his context tonight is far from exciting (in Oakland facing a ground baller) and his price tag is beyond appropriate.

In cash games, you’re picking from a large bucket of options that are projecting similarly tonight at the position. Travis Shaw (MIL), Kyle Seager (SEA), Yangervis Solarte (TOR), Justin Turner (LAD) and Luis Valbuena (LAA) are projecting in a similar range tonight (7.7 to 8.2 DK points and 10.3 to 10.9 on FD).

Of this group, we like Shaw’s context the most (in Cincinnati with the platoon edge) but he’s also the priciest of the bunch on both sites though the price tag isn’t bad ($4,100 on DK, $3,500 on FD). Seager has a home matchup against power prone Ian Kennedy (.240 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2017), Solarte is at home in a good hitters park facing Francisco Liriano and Justin Turner will have the platoon edge against Tyler Anderson (.204 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2017). Those are good pitching matchups, but Solarte is the one in a good hitting environment and he’s the inferior hitter of this group.

That leads us to Luis Valbuena, who’s the cheapest of the bunch on both sites ($3,400 on DK, $2,600 on FD) and gets to hit fifth in Camden Yards where temperatures will be in the high 80s. Without anyone standing out from a projection or per dollar value perspective at the position, we’re inclined to save some salary with Valbuena in cash games.

Shortstop

Manny Machado (BAL), Elvis Andrus (TEX) and Francisco Lindor (CLE) form the top tier of shortstops in this slate. We’re starting to see a little bit of resurgence on Andrus’ HHR (up to 20% over the L15 days) and he gets to hit in the best environment of this group. However, Machado and Lindor are better hitters and they’re more valuable in DFS. Unfortunately, Machado and Lindor are also priced in a range that you won’t be able to access in cash games in this slate. They’re viable in tournaments, but Andrus gets the edge in cash games as he’s hitting second for a team with a 5.6 IRT and has cheaper price tags.

Chris Taylor (LAD) is the next in line option at the position and he’s cheap on both sites ($3,500 on DK, $3,100 on FD). We’re pursuing an ace plus a big bat in this slate, so you’ll need to save at multiple positions. Shortstop should be one of them, and with Taylor having the platoon edge (.348 wOBA, .194 ISO since 2017), you get to roster a cheap leadoff hitter that is certainly not terrible.

Kike Hernandez (LAD) is even cheaper than Taylor, and even though he always comes with some level of PH risk, he’s still a viable target given how good of a hitter he is vs. LHP (.389 wOBA, .290 ISO since 2017). We prefer him in tournaments.

If you’d rather go the punt route on FD, Nick Ahmed (ARI) is serviceable with the platoon edge and a $2,600 price tag. Ahmed gets to hit second vs. LHP.

Outfield

Mike Trout (LAA) is the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of hitting position and he has a higher projection than six pitchers on DK. The best hitter in baseball has generated a .444 wOBA and .333 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season and gets a huge park shift in his favor going into Camden Yards. He has a matchup against David Hess, which stands out as Hess has allowed a .227 ISO to RHBs. Trout is very expensive but he’s a viable target in all formats on both sites despite his recent performance not being great. He’ll be an easier fit in cash games on DK since you can save at SP2 and at some of the middle infield positions.

The next in line option in the outfield is Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) with the platoon edge in Yankee Stadium. Stanton has generated a .479 wOBA and .444 ISO vs. LHP since the start of last season, and his HHR (31.6%) has been on the rise over the L15 days. Stanton doesn’t get the benefit of having a plus matchup as Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher, which is holding his projection back a little bit. He’s a strong target on both sites but he’s an easier fit on DK.

Randal Grichuk (TOR) is projecting as a priority salary relief option on both sites. He comes with PH risk, but he’s $3,700 on DK and $2,500 on FD and we saw him in the leadoff spot against Dallas Keuchel this past week. As long as he’s in that coveted leadoff role, he can be considered in all formats. He’ll have the platoon edge at home against Francisco Liriano, and with the platoon edge he’s shown some power (.171 ISO since 2017). Avisail Garcia (CHW) is another cheap outfielder on both sites that gets the benefit of hitting on the road in mid 90s weather. Garcia has been hitting second of late vs. RHP.

Our DK optimals are mostly flooding the names above, but on FD it’s trying to generate some salary relief. That’s where Teoscar Hernandez (TOR), Ryan Braun (MIL), Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo (TEX) and Colby Rasmus (BAL) enter the mix. Hernandez, Mazara and Braun are a little bit pricier (priced at the average cost of a hitter) than your typical cheap outfielder on FD, but they also carry bigger projections. You might not be able to roster a Trout or a Stanton in cash games on FD, but you could roster one or two of those options. Gallo and Rasmus are sub $3k options on FD that carry power upside. Rasmus has been hitting leadoff of late vs. RHP while Gallo has been hitting eight. Despite that difference in lineup spot, Gallo is projecting ahead due his massive power upside (.312 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season).

CC Sabathia has pitched very well this season, but that won’t keep us away from Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez (BOS). These two get to hit in warm temperatures in Yankee Stadium and they’ve been excellent hitters vs. LHP. They’re both overpriced for this matchup but their upside keeps them in play in tournaments.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Texas Rangers

 

2) Milwaukee Brewers

3) Los Angeles Angels

The Rangers and Angels lead the slate in implied total by a wide margin as both teams are pushing 5.5 and higher implied totals as the only two teams above five. The Rangers face Dylan Covey who looked like a completely different starter for a month and then over the last two starts has walked nine, struck out three and allowed eight earned runs in just nine innings of work. Vegas hasn’t been buying into Covey’s resurgence but DFS players have been burned repeatedly by the Rangers and by picking on Covey so this should be interesting to see where ownership shakes out.

The Angels get a monstrous park shift in Baltimore against a below average starter in David Hess and a below average bullpen. The challenge with the Angels is trying to figure out Mike Trout‘s health and how that impacts stacks when he’s full priced on this slate. Trout’s hard hit rate has declined considerably since becoming a DH-only due to a hand issue. The rest of the Angels are pretty cheap and fit the slate well if you can consider stacking without Trout.

The Brewers always rate well for us despite lower implied totals but if Christian Yelich and Jonathan Villar are out of the lineup, some of the power-speed upside is removed. They fit as a contrarian option on the slate but we’ll wait to see how healthy they are before investing.

Tier Two

4) New York Yankees

5) Toronto Blue Jays

6) Chicago White Sox

7) Washington Nationals

8) Seattle Mariners

The second tier is deep and provides stacks at different price points. We expect ownership to get spread out on this slate because of the different pitching options and the two highest implied totals are on teams the DFS industry generally doesn’t enjoy stacking.

The Yankees should go lower owned at home against a LHP. Their studs are expensive and there is plenty of high end pitching on the slate that will keep ownership in check. With Gary Sanchez out, they’re actually a bit easier to mini-stack with the expensive bats and feel like you’re not missing out. We like that tact even if we acknowledge Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty solid pitcher. Craig Kimbrel has gone two days in a row as has Joe Kelly so the back-end of the Red Sox pen may be unavailable.

The Blue Jays are an interesting cheap stack as Francisco Liriano has historically scuffled with RHBs (.357 wOBA, .185 ISO against RHBs since 2017) and the Blue Jays will likely load up on them. Given their soft price tags they also fit the slate well with high-end pitching.

The White Sox are rarely a targeted stack as the offense doesn’t have much depth but with temperatures in the high 90s in Texas and Yovani Gallardo on the mound, there is a unique opportunity here. At the very least we have mini-stack potential with Moncada-Abreu-Avisail Garcia.

The Nationals are a definite contrarian option on the road in Philadelphia against a good pitcher in Nick Pivetta. When Pivetta has gone wrong it’s been really bad. He’s allowed six earned runs in two starts this season and one was against Washington earlier in the year. They just saw him his last start out which should bring some familiarity and warm temperatures in Philadelphia (high 80s) make it more difficult for a fly ball oriented starter to keep the ball in the park.

Seattle is in a bad park at home but Ian Kennedy and the Royals bullpen are great targets to attack with stacks.  

Tier Three

9) Los Angeles Dodgers

10) Cincinnati Reds

We really like the second tier in terms of contrarian MME targets so we don’t see much need to deep into this third tier but both the Dodgers and Reds project as viable stack candidates for MME.

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