Welcome to June 29 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 29 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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June 29 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
11:12 First Base
14:20 Second Base
16:29 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
June 29 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
To Kershaw or not to Kershaw? That is always the question on Clayton Kershaw (LAD) slates. While Kershaw is generally the top of the field when he pitches, there’s no one even close to him on this slate from a raw total perspective. When you factor in price, there are several options that rate similarly as per dollar values, but we still suggest building around Kershaw’s floor in cash games. The IRTA is just 3.1. Only Chris Archer (3.9) has an IRTA under 4, outside of Kershaw. The Angels do limit strikeouts, but this is all about safety.
Chris Archer (TB) is the other big ticket name on this slate, but we view him as a poor value due to a combination of high cost and a Pirates team that is striking out at the second lowest rate against RHP.
As an alternative or complement to Kershaw, we’d rather save a significant amount of money from Archer and drop down to David Price (BOS). It’s tough to tell if Price is 100%, but he’s coming off a start with his best fastball velocity of the season that helped lead to his highest GB rate and lowest xFIP of any start. There’s risk with Price at home, but we find that the price mitigates most of that risk.
At slightly lower price tags than Price, Jameson Taillon (PIT) and Dinelson Lamet (SD) are strong mid-tier values, both pitching at home in favorable environments. The similarities for the right-handers seem to end there. Taillon isn’t going to overpower people, but he can piece together a solid K/BB ratio with a high GB rate (52.4% for his short career), leaving him as a mid-3’s ERA pitcher in a plus park. While Tampa Bay is dangerous against RHP, they also swing and miss a lot, which should give Taillon a touch of upside he doesn’t normally carry.
Lamet on the other hand doesn’t have the solid skill set of Taillon, but he does possess the individual K upside. On the risk side, Lamet is wild and fly ball prone. On the K side, Lamet has struck out 32.3% of batters faced in six starts with an impressive 14.0 SwStr%.
As we move down the pricing spectrum, Jaime Garcia (ATL) is a similar per dollar value to Taillon and Lamet at a lower cost. Garcia’s K% has dropped to a career low 17.3% this season, which has hurt his DFS value. Still the price is way down for such a stellar contextual spot – in Petco park against a K happy team ranking dead last in wRC+ against LHP. And aside from the Ks, this is same old Garcia – a good Hard-Soft% to go with a stellar 55.7 GB rate.
A punt tournament play that we’d only use if needing money for bats while still jamming in Kershaw is Homer Bailey (CIN). Bailey made his return from a year long injury recovery/rehab last week and promptly gave up 8 ERs in 1.2 IP. However, he did have 17Ks against 3 BBs in three rehab starts. The floor here is heavy negatives, but it’s worth a punt in GPPs.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) carries the top projection at the catcher position in a matchup against James Shields, who’s #bad. Shields has an ugly combination of a 31% GB rate and a 5.75 xFIP. We love the upside here, but Sanchez is a difficult cash game fit in a Kershaw slate given his appropriate pricing around the industry. We love him in tournaments.
Russell Martin (TOR) is a great target on FD where he’s $2,800. It’s a great matchup against the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez and a subpar Orioles’ bullpen. The $3,700 price tag on DK is also playable, but we’d like to find a punt option on that site at a shallow position. If you wanted to punt the position on FD, Stephen Vogt (MIL) is $2,100 with the platoon edge in Cincinnati.
Joey Votto (CIN) is the top projected scorer at first base. We like Votto in tournaments given his context, but on a Kershaw slate we’re looking for cheaper options in cash games.
For example, Eric Thames (MIL) carries a nearly identical projection at the position but comes at a hefty price discount on FD where he’s just $3,000. Thames hasn’t been great lately from a production standpoint, but the hard hit data is telling us a different story (30% HHR over the L15). Thames will once again have the platoon edge in a great hitting environment.
Kendrys Morales (TOR) is a gift on DK. Morales is $3,700, and as a switch hitter he’ll always have the platoon edge. Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled even with righties this season, but it’s a matchup we’d like to attack with LHBs. Ubaldo has allowed a .357 wOBA and .211 ISO to LHBs since 2015. On FD, teammate Justin Smoak (TOR) serves as a great alternative to Thames though he’s $500 more expensive. That doesn’t seem like much, but on a Kershaw slate every dollar counts.
The most important thing at second base and shortstop will be saving some salary in order to spend it at other premium positions. One of Alen Hanson or Yolmer Sanchez (CWS) is going to lead off for the White Sox, and they’re cheap around the industry. Sanchez in particular is enticing at $3,000. The White Sox get a matchup against a less threatening Yankees’ SP (Luis Cessa) and have an IRT that’s approaching five runs.
On FD, we’d love to get to an underpriced Brian Dozier (MIN) in Fenway Park with the platon edge. Dozier is just $3,200 on that site. Dozier is a much better hitter than Hanson or Sanchez, but even getting to that sort of price tag won’t be easy at the position.
We can almost copy paste our thoughts lately at the position. Josh Donaldson (TOR) and Manny Machado (BAL) are still dumb cheap on DK at $4,300 and $3,900 respectively. They also rate as the best per dollar values on FD though the position on that site is priced tightly. Machado has the tougher matchup against J.A. Happ, but he’ll have the platoon edge in Rogers Centre and he’s the cheaper of the two on both sites. If you wanted another tie breaker here from a cash game perspective, Machado’s HHR over the L15 is sitting at 37.7% while Donaldson has a negative delta.
If you’re looking for salary relief at the position on FD, you’re out of luck. Chase Headley (NYY) is $2,900, but like his matchup (James Shields), he’s just plain bad. Maybe Matt Davidson (CWS) at $2,700 with power upside (17 HRs and a 53% FB rate), but the amount of times he Ks makes us uncomfortable (40.4% K rate this season) in cash games.
Miguel Sano (MIN) has the platoon edge in Fenway Park. It’s not a great matchup on the surface (David Price), but his price tag has come down a touch around the industry and the upside here is tantalizing. While Price has name recognition, he has a 5.12 xFIP through six starts this season.
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) is the top projected scorer at the shortstop position. It’s not a slate to pay up for him in cash games.
Instead of paying up for Bogaerts, we’d rather save money at the position. Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) is an easy way to do it on DK where he’s just $3,400. Tulo is certainly not the same hitter he once was, but he’s on pace to hit double digit HRs once again. Didi Gregorius (NYY) will cost you a little more, but we prefer him if you can find those extra $300. Gregorius will have the platoon edge vs. James Shields, and he was hitting cleanup vs. a LHP last night with Matt Holliday in the disabled list.
On FD, we’d rather save more money with a punt like Jose Peraza (CIN). He won’t have good lineup spot, but a punt price at this position on that site puts him in the cash game conversation. Peraza will run (15 SBs this season – ZiPS projects 16 more for the ROS), so there’s some upside here.
Aaron Judge (NYY) is once again a scary fade in a condensed slate. On FD, you’ll have to get away from Kershaw to roster him. That’s not a prudent decision from a cash game perspective, but on DK you can pursue him alongside Kershaw despite the $5,700 price tag.
If you want to hold some upside at the position but can’t spend all the way up for Judge, Mookie Betts (BOS) is the way to go. Betts is just $3,700, which is an excellent price tag for an event upside player in Fenway Park.
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but Jose Bautista (TOR) is underpriced once again on DK ($4,100). He won’t have the platoon edge, but he’s the leadoff hitter (and a powerful one) for a Blue Jays offense that has an IRT of 5.8 runs. His teammate Dwight Smith Jr. (TOR) won’t have a good lineup spot (will likely hit seventh), but platoon edge vs. Ubaldo at a punt price tag on both sites makes him a good value. It’s the type of play you’ll have to make in a Kershaw slate with good offenses.
Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY) will hit at the top of the Yankees lineup vs. James Shields. Ellsbury is just $3,700 on DK, while we prefer Gardner on FD where they’re priced similarly. Eric Thames (MIL) (OF eligibility on DK), Andrew Benintendi (BOS) (good price tag on FD), Billy Hamilton (CIN), Christian Yelich (MIA) ($3,500 on DK with the platoon edge) and Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) ($3,300 on FD) are other targets that you can consider in all formats.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (BOS) is a good play in tournaments as part of Red Sox stacks. He doesn’t get a good lineup spot, but his HHR is sitting at 32.6% over the L15 and as a streaky hitter you want to roster him when he’s swinging it well. Kyle Gibson has allowed a .353 wOBA and .161 ISO to LHBs since 2015.
1) New York Yankees
2) Toronto Blue Jays
The Yankees, Jays, and Red Sox have three high IRTS over 5.5 that separate themselves from the other offenses in this slate. However, it’s the Yankees and Jays that possess the requisite event upside to be ranked a full tier ahead of Boston. We defer to the Yankees if choosing just one upside stack. For starters, there’s some added upside playing on the road. Secondly, when James Shields goes bad, it’s via the long ball. After giving up 1.98 HR/9 last season, he’s currently yielding 2.49 per 9 this season.
3) Boston Red Sox
4) Milwaukee Brewers
5) Cincinnati Reds
The Brewers are our favorite tournament stack from this tier. They will come at less ownership than the Red Sox but are an event-oriented team on the road facing a pitcher in Homer Bailey whose downside is difficult to quantify. We see the ceiling as higher here.
6) Chicago White Sox
7) Miami Marlins
While the White Sox and Marlins project similarly from top to bottom, we prefer the ceiling on the White Sox. Luis Cessa has a ZiPS projected ERA of 5.44 and 1.75 HR/9.