Welcome to June 30 MLB DFS action. You’ll find Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for June 30 MLB DFS along with LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using the customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS | HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | SORTABLE STATS | PITCHER TRENDS | LINEUPS | LEADERS
00:59 Starting Pitcher
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
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June 30 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
Chris Sale (BOS) dominates the SP projections on a medium sized slate, projecting for 9.5 strikeouts, 2.5 more than any other SP on the slate. The matchup against the Yankees is subpar from a run prevention standpoint as they rank second in wRC+ against LHP. However, they do strike out at an above average rate, which drives Sale’s projection.
Sale has almost no competition up top, which is a large part of the reason we don’t mind using him in a tough matchup against the Yankees. The competition he does have comes in the form of Kenta Maeda (LAD), who is always difficult to project given the variability in outing duration. From a rate standpoint, though, Maeda has been phenomenal, posting a 2.98 FIP with a 27.5 K% On top of that the matchup against Colorado, dead last in wRC+ against RHP, is favorable leading Maeda to a slate best 3.4 IRTA and second largest favorite (-184). Maeda is pricey enough on DK that we think the decision is clear in cash games, but the decision is at least a bit closer on FD where the gap in pricing is wider.
After the top options, the SP position thins out quickly. The mid-tier target that projects best overall is Felix Hernandez (SEA), which mostly has to do with the putrid Royals lineup that has led to Hernandez being the largest favorite (-210) with the second lowest IRTA (3.5). We have just two Royals with a wOBA split baselined greater than .320 and four fall below .300.
The only other options that even project for 14 DK points are Luke Weaver (STL) (favorable price tag on FD as a cheap GPP pay), Carlos Rodon (CHW) (terrible park environment and reduced K rate in a small sample size since returning), Joey Lucchesi (SD) (good K rate but big duration risk), and German Marquez (COL). The latter option is in our early optimals. The basic idea is that no one separates themselves so you may as well take the lowest cost option, and Marquez is that option by quite a bit. Marquez has a decent 4.13 xFIP and 22.2 K%, and he gets a large park shift in his favor, outside of the pitcher’s nightmare that is Coors Field.
Yasmani Grandal (LAD), Buster Posey (SF) and Robinson Chirinos (TEX) form the top tier of catchers in this slate with the top projections at the position. Posey has a R/R matchup in Chase Field, and he’s the priciest of the bunch. He’s outside the cash game conversation tonight. Chirinos is the cheapest of the group on DK ($3,500) and he’ll have the platoon edge in high 90s weather in Arlington. Chirinos has been outstanding with the platoon edge, generating a .402 wOBA and .261 ISO since the start of last season. Grandal is sandwiched between Posey and Chirinos on DK. He’s not in a good hitting environment, but hitting from the left side is a big deal for his projection, as he’s slugged a .227 ISO vs. RHP since 2017. He’s also been hitting the ball very hard of late, generating a massive 40% HHR over the L15 days. Chirinos is our favorite cash game option from this group followed by Grandal.
Jose Abreu (CHW) and Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) represent the top projected scorers at first base. Abreu is priced very differently on both sites. He’s just $4,400 on DK and $3,400 on FD, which makes him the best per dollar value at the position as well and it’s not particularly close. He’s in Arlington facing Bartolo Colon, who’s allowed a .242 ISO to RHBs since the start of last season. Abreu is the preferred cash game option at the position while Goldschmidt remains a viable tournament target against Dereck Rodriguez, who’s allowed a 27% hard minus soft hit rate through five starts this season.
On FD, cheap options like Matt Davidson (CHW) and Lucas Duda (KC) deserve a look as complements to Abreu in cash games or alternatives in tournaments. Davidson has been alternating starts with Daniel Palka, so it’s not a guarantee that he’ll be in the lineup. If he’s in there, he’ll be hitting cleanup against Bartolo Colon in high 90s weather. Duda is in the inferior hitting environment (Seattle), but gets a tasty matchup against Felix Hernandez (.358 wOBA, .211 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2017). Both of these options will cost you less than $3k on FD.
Freddie Freeman (ATL), Jose Martinez (STL) and Brandon Belt (SF) are intriguing tournament targets with the platoon edge that are overpriced. Martinez has the most exciting matchup of the bunch, as Max Fried has been awful against RHBs (.369 wOBA, 1.54 HR/9 allowed to RHBs throughout his career). He’s also vastly overpriced on both sites as he’s not the same caliber of hitter as Freeman or Belt. We’re not expecting big or potentially even modest ownership coming for these pricey options at the position.
Yoan Moncada (CHW) carries the top projection at the second base position. Moncada is once again getting an opportunity to hit in high 90s weather in Arlington out of the leadoff spot. There’s a good chance that he gets that coveted fifth PA in this context. Moncada’s HHR is up to 35.3% over the L15 days and he’ll hit out of the left side (.208 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season) against Bartolo Colon. Pursue him aggressively in all formats tonight.
The next in line option from a projection standpoint at the position is Dee Gordon (SEA), who’s at home in a favorable matchups against Jason Hammel and the Royals bullpen. Unfortunately for Gordon, he’s priced too closely to Moncada to consider him a viable cash game alternative. In fact, he’s more expensive than Moncada on FD. He’s only in play in tournaments.
The only other route to consider in cash games at the position is to go cheap with Alen Hanson (SF). Hanson has been leading off for the Giants offense of late and he’s $2,600 on FD.
Ozzie Albies (ATL) remains playable in tournaments despite the big price tag. His matchup against Luke Weaver isn’t a great one and the Braves have a 3.9 IRT. This has the makings of a low owned, event upside play. Jurickson Profar (TEX) is another GPP target to consider in this slate with a correct price tag. Profar has generated a 34.5% HHR over the L15 days.
Jake Lamb (ARI) and Adrian Beltre (TEX) carry the top projections in the hot corner. They’ll both have the platoon edge, but Beltre gets the edge in hitting environment as he gets to hit in the friendly confines of Arlington, Texas. Still, Lamb edges him out in projection because of a bigger power baseline (.234 ISO vs. RHP). On DK, Beltre is just $3,900, and with the Rangers once again leading a slate with a 5.2 IRT, we think Beltre is likely to be more popular. It’s fine to eat that chalk in cash games, but Lamb is a fine pivot.
Things are a little bit more muddied on FD where Lamb and Beltre are priced in the mid to high $3ks. On that site, we’ve seen our top optimals go after those two and Mike Moustakas (KC), Pablo Sandoval (SF) and Cory Spangenberg (SD). Sandoval and Spangenberg have bottom of the barrel price tags on that site. Moustakas is $3,100 and will have the platoon edge against Felix Hernandez, who’s been a mess against LHBs over the last few seasons. Kyle Seager (SEA) should also be included in that mix with a $3,300 price tag. Seager won’t get to hit in a good hitting environment, but the pitching matchups he’ll have, starting with Jason Hammel, are excellent to attack in DFS. We don’t have a strong lean on FD at the position in cash games. It’s viable to fill this position out close to last, but in tournaments we have a lean towards the mid-tier options.
Elvis Andrus (TEX) carries the top projection at an uneventful shortstop position. Andrus will have the platoon edge in Arlington, and he’s hit LHP well (.342 wOBA, .181 ISO) relative to the other options at the position in this slate. The price tag on DK ($3,900) feels too good to pass up, especially in cash games. The price tag on FD ($3,500) is good enough but we wouldn’t call it a great one.
The challenge on FD is that every other alternative after Andrus is priced very efficiently. For example, Jean Segura (SEA) and Chris Taylor (LAD) are the only other options with decent projections at the position but Segura is nearly $4k and Taylor is priced right around the average cost of a hitter. We’d say the same thing about Brandon Crawford (SF). He’ll have the platoon edge on the road but it’s not in an exciting hitting environment and he’s $3,300. You’ll probably have to follow our top optimals lead and simply play Andrus even if you don’t love the price tag.
Mookie Betts (BOS) and J.D. Martinez (BOS) carry the top projections in the outfield. They’re in Yankee Stadium where temperatures will be in the high 80s. It’s a strong hitting environment, but the matchup against Sonny Gray (.315 wOBA, .170 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2017) isn’t overly exciting. We still like these two but their price tags are very difficult to fit in and they project as clear overspends in this slate. We prefer them in tournaments.
The same thing can be said about Giancarlo Stanton (NYY), who’s facing Chris Sale. We love Stanton against LHP (.479 wOBA, .440 ISO vs. LHP since 2017), but this is too difficult of a matchup to consider him in cash games while he’s priced fully. He’s only in play in tournaments. You can throw Andrew Benintendi (BOS) in this tournament group as well, and he’ll have the platoon edge, which is a boost with the short porch in RF.
Avisail Garcia (CHW) remains a cash game staple, particularly on FD where he’s just $2,500. Garcia is hitting second in Arlington, and he’s hit RHP decently (.337 wOBA, .170 ISO since 2017). Tommy Pham (STL) is just $3,100 on FD and $4,300 on DK and he’ll have the platoon edge against Max Fried. Pham has slugged a .396 wOBA and .221 ISO vs. LHP since the start of last season. The average temperature in St. Louis will be ~90 degrees during this game, which makes it a friendlier hitting environment than usual. Dee Gordon (SEA) (on DK), Marcell Ozuna (STL) (on DK), Chris Taylor (LAD) (on DK), Joc Pederson (LAD) (on FD) and Denard Span (SEA) (on FD) are site dependent options to consider in cash games as OF3s. Even Jarrod Dyson (ARI) isn’t a terrible punt to consider on DK ($3k) if you need the salary relief to fit what you want.
1) Texas Rangers
2) Chicago White Sox
The gaps between the top three tiers of stacks are pretty thin on this slate. However, the game in Texas where temperatures are going to start in the mid-90s are where our top stacks occur. The Rangers possess the highest IRT on the slate. They’ll face a talented pitcher in Carlos Rodon, but in just four starts backs from the DL he hasn’t flashed his tantalizing K + GB rate upside.
The White Sox have a slightly lower IRT but are facing a much worse SP in Bartolo Colon, who has a 5.19 FIP and .376 xwOBA.
3) Boston Red Sox
4) Seattle Mariners
5) Los Angeles Dodgers
6) Arizona Diamondbacks
In tournaments, ownership should be spread out enough that you don’t have to obsess over it when constructing your rosters. From a pure upside perspective, the Mariners are most interesting here. Jason Hammel ranks 344/362 qualified SPs in xwOBA this season. His K rate is meaningfully lower than in previous seasons, which is a big deal given the hard-hit aerial contact that he does allow.
7) San Francisco Giants
8) St. Louis Cardinals
The Giants are an interesting cheap stack on the road in Arizona. They’ll face Shelby Miller, who was shelled in his seasonal debut. While it’s just one start, Miller allowed a lot of aerial contact and a 42 Hard%. He last threw over 100 innings in 2016, when he allowed a .400 wOBA and .215 ISO to LHBs and .329 wOBA and .151 ISO to RHBs.