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June 30 MLB DFS: Wood You Look at That
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Welcome to June 30 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for June 30 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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June 30 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:00 Starting Pitcher
09:33 Catcher
12:13 First Base
15:30 Second Base
18:25 Third Base
22:48 Shortstop
25:18 Outfield
28:19 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

June 30 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Jacob deGrom (NYM) narrowly edges out Alex Wood (LAD) as our top overall projected scorer at the position on a full 15 game slate. Still, the expensive tag on deGrom makes him a better tournament option. He is the largest favorite on the slate (-230) with the second lowest IRTA (3.2). More importantly, a return in fastball velocity for deGrom this season has led to a career high 27.8 K%, which has increased the DFS stock dramatically. deGrom has had some homer and BB issues, leading to some volatility, but that’s mitigated pitching at home against a Phillies team ranked 28th in wRC+ against RHP.

Wood is the cash game play. Even at the same salary, it’s a legitimate debate, but with a meaningfully lower price on both sites than deGrom, you got to go with Wood. He’s been phenomenal this season. Wood has exceeded deGrom’s K% (29.8%) but removed the ancillary volatility thanks to a career low BB rate and a awe droppingly high 66.7 GB rate. Wood’s stable skill set meets an elite matchup against a horrific Padres offense in pitcher friendly San Diego, leaving him with the lowest IRTA on the slate (3.1) and second largest favorite (-200).

There are solid mid-tier values available on this slate, and our favorite is Lance McCullers (HOU). McCullers has been on a roll recently, seeing the largest positive delta in K% over his last three starts (+7.6, 36.9) relative to his season long mark of all pitchers in action on this slate. McCullers has struck out eight batters in four consecutive starts. On the negative side, the Yankees are second in wRC+ against RHP, and it’s a good hitting environment. However, injuries to this offense (Holliday, Austin) help to reduce its potency. Surprisingly the IRTA is just 3.5.

Behind McCullers is Sonny Gray (OAK). Gray has a strong 25.8 K% over his last five starts, with an xFIP of 3.42 or lower in four of those five starts. Gray will face an Atlanta team with the second lowest Hard% over the last 14 days (FanGraphs). We prefer him in tournaments.

Some volatile but high K upside options for GPPs are Robbie Ray (ARI) and Jon Gray (COL). Ray faces a Rockies team with a high 24.2 K% against LHP, while Ray’s own Diamondbacks bring in a 22.3 K% against RHP against Gray. The two are high risk, high reward options.

There’s a pretty substantial drop off after these pitchers on FD. On DK, the drop off is more gradual as the wider salary spread brings into play some cheap options like Roark/Leake/Bridwell/Richard. We’re less inclined to go that route on this slate unless you’re desperate for an expensive stack with one of Wood/deGrom, but at that point we’d rather take our chances with two higher upside mid-tier SPs. Johnny Cueto (SF) has some minor appeal simply based on price, but his peripherals and K upside in this matchup keep him a full peg below the mid-tier options discussed above.

Catcher

Willson Contreras (CHC) leads the catching conversation on both sites. Contreras not only comes with an accessible price tag and a positive park shift, but he’s been one of the lone “hot” Cubs bats, posting a positive delta in Hard% (34.2%) over the last fifteen days and getting better lineup spots as well.

After Contreras, Russell Martin (TOR) and Wilson Ramos (TB) are the next best values. Martin is in play on both sites at $2,600 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings. The Blue Jays have continually let us down, but an improved lineup spot and another hefty implied run total have us going back to the well. Ramos will cost you similarly to the former two options on DraftKings, but on FanDuel he’s just $2,300. Since recently coming back he’s only posted a 10% Hard% but he comes with a decent lineup spot (6) and will draw a favorable matchup against Chris Tillman. Tillman is one of many Orioles that have struggled this season, allowing 2.04 HR/9. A favorable park shift for the Rays doesn’t help his case.

Yan Gomes (CLE) would be the punt “equivalent” to Ramos on DraftKings.

First Base

A strong group of first basemen lead the way on both sites, headed in projection by Anthony Rizzo (CHC). Rizzo and the Cubs get a strong park shift in their favor but will get a “resurgent” Scott Feldman, which is holding their implied run total down at 4.6. Nevertheless, Rizzo has remained a steady bat and has been a force against RHP for some time – .387 wOBA, .246 ISO since 2015.

While Rizzo is the ideal option, Eric Thames (MIL), Edwin Encarnacion (CLE), and Miguel Cabrera (DET) follow right behind. Thames is the best per dollar play on both sites, drawing the platoon edge on Edinson Volquez in his home ballpark. His priced has dipped to $2,900 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings (also OF eligible) and whether or not you remember his insane home run streak, he’s still posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days.

Encarnacion gets the human home run machine in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez is getting less ground balls than ever before and is paying for it, having allowed 2.81 HR/9 this season. At just $4,600 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel, he’s a great cash game complement.

Last but not least, Cabrera has been priced like he’s over the hill, but certainly isn’t. Having posted a 44.6% Hard% in the last fifteen days and getting the reverse splits of Josh Tomlin (.238 ISO allowed to RHB since 2015) – he’s another option to consider in any format.

There are a whole host of other viable options in tournaments, such as Logan Morrison (TB) against Chris Tillman and Jose Abreu (CHW) versus Austin Bibens-Dirkx.

Second Base

Rougned Odor (TEX) and Alen Hanson (CHW) represent the two clear per dollar values on both sites. Odor is the higher upside option, hopefully drawing a fifth place lineup spot against the recent escape artist in Mike Pelfrey. At just $3,300 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel – we’re willing to take a chance despite Pelfrey’s ability to induce soft contact and limit the hard contact this season.

Hanson carries less upside, but he comes at a cheaper tag, especially on FanDuel at just $2,300. Given the loose pricing structure there, you might not need his salary relief but he offers it to you in a matchup with Bibens-Dirkx. Dee Gordon (MIA) will cost you more than Hanson, but is a higher upside option that is just a bit cheaper than Odor.

Of course, you’ll be afforded the option to pay for some better players. Brian Dozier (MIN) will get the fly ball oriented Jason Vargas, and we’re aware of his prowess against LHP. Jason Kipnis (CLE) and Ian Kinsler (DET) will square off against each other in a game that could be full of home run balls as both opposing pitchers are prone to power.

Third Base

Third base will likely differ on the two sites tonight. On FanDuel, you’ll likely be given the chance to play any of the top options. Evan Longoria (TB) and Manny Machado (BAL) rate as the best per dollar options and the top projected scorers at the position as well. Longoria and the Rays will look to take advantage of a positive park shift and the reverse splits of Chris Tillman. Though we are more inclined to use him against LHP, the splits of Tillman and the 5.5 implied run total for the Rays is enough for consideration (plus a positive delta in Hard%).

Machado is the higher upside player, but his matchup is a bit less enticing against Jacob Faria. However, the $3,800 price tag on DraftKings is perhaps too low to overlook given his ability. Despite a rough performance last night, he’s posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days and will get the fly ball arm of Faria.

On FanDuel you’ll reasonably have the space to pay for any of Josh Donaldson (TOR), Nolan Arenado (COL), or Miguel Sano (MIN) – but contextually, their respective matchups bring about lower floors than we’d expect out of Machado or Longoria (while carrying higher upsides).

If you need more cap relief on DraftKings, you can dip way down to Luis Valbuena (LAA) or take advantage of mid to low $4,000 price tags on Sano, Arenado or Adrian Beltre (TEX) and Todd Frazier (CHW).

Shortstop

Addison Russell (CHC) is a value shortstop that will get you exposure to the Cubs offense. Joe Maddon is notorious for throwing out random lineups, but Russell is coming off a 5th place lineup spot against a tougher right-hander yesterday in Joe Ross. Russell has fought off some early season struggles to post a 24.1% Hard% in the last fifteen days – a great value, particularly on FanDuel.

On DraftKings, Russell will cost you $4,000 and Francisco Lindor (CLE) is just $4,200 while Carlos Correa (HOU) is just $4,500. Correa’s matchup is a bit too much boom or bust for cash games (against Michael Pineda), but Lindor will bring to play some power/speed upside against Anibal Sanchez. Though his furious home run pace has slowed, Lindor has posted a career high ISO this season.

Trevor Story‘s (COL) matchup with Robbie Ray doesn’t bring about a ton of excitement, but he’s VERY cheap on both sites. At just $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings, he brings about a cheap way to get exposure to a good overall offensive

Outfield

Mallex Smith (TB), Christian Yelich (MIA), and Nomar Mazara (TEX) represent underpriced options from favorable offenses on this slate. We’ve touched on Smith’s matchup with Chris Tillman, and although “power” isn’t his game – his speed upside is a great pairing along Tampa Bay stacks or as just cheap exposure to the top of their offense for cash games.

Yelich carries the least upside of this trio, but is a higher floor player in a positive park shift to Miller Park. He’ll hold the platoon edge on Matt Garza, an aging arm that has allowed a 20% difference in Hard%-Soft%.

Mazara will give you exposure to the middle of the Texas offense against Mike Pelfrey, another arm we’re eager to attack. Pelfrey has been able to dance out of trouble this season but is outperforming his peripherals (5.27 xFIP, 3.73 ERA). Mazara is another one of the mid-range options that has been able to post a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days and has posted a .180 ISO against RHP since 2015.

Not surprisingly, a bunch of the other top values come from the same teams as the aforementioned trio. Shin Soo Choo (TEX) will get you more exposure to the Rangers offense, while Corey Dickerson (TB) and Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) bring mammoth upside and are great options even from a per dollar perspective.

Eric Thames (MIL) is OF eligible on DraftKings if you wanted a chance to use him alongside the loaded first base options. Matt Olson (OAK) is back down to $2,300 on DraftKings and will get the wide platoon splits of Mike Foltynewicz. He’ll allow you to really bolster your offense if you want to take a chance on him.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Texas Rangers

2) Tampa Bay Rays

The Rangers are an excellent tournament stack as they may avoid high ownership despite getting our top stack ranking (other teams with higher IRTs, 15 game slate). Then again, everyone likes to pick on Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey is going to get hit with some regression once his .250 BABIP normalizes. His 5.0 K-BB% is not indicative of an MLB caliber SP, and the plus GB rate isn’t high enough to overcome that.

It’s an interesting 15 game slate with no teams having IRTs over 5.5. Right at 5.5, the Rays are the highest expected scoring team of the night according to Vegas. Chris Tillman, who could possibly not start as his wife is due any day, has been an utter disaster. He has a 3.1 K-BB%, a career worst FanGraphs 36.3 Hard%, and 2.05 HR/9.

Tier Two

3) Miami Marlins

4) Chicago Cubs

5) Cleveland Indians

In this tier, we think the Marlins have the best combination of upside at reasonable ownership levels. They get a massive favorable park shift hitting in Milwaukee, and will face Matt Garza, who both ZiPS and Steamer are projecting a 5.01 ROS ERA.

Tier Three

6) Baltimore Orioles

7) New York Mets

8) Toronto Blue Jays

9) Colorado Rockies

10) Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are our favorite tournament stack from this group. Our baseline on Austin Bibens-Dirkx is pretty bad. While he keeps skating by, we’re actually growing more confident in our baseline. Dirkx has allowed a ton of balls in play (14.4 K%) and 1.72 HR/9. An unsustainable BABIP and LOB% have kept the ERA in check.

 

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