Welcome to June 4 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for June 4 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
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June 4 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
We have ourselves a slate where Clayton Richard (SD) is the top ranked SP. Whew. All jokes aside, Richard is a small home favorite, tied with the lowest IRTA on the slate. As bad of a DFS matchup as ATL has been thus far this year, our baselines don’t believe it’s as difficult as the current baselines indicate. Most importantly, Richard has pitched really well recently. He’s posted xFIPs of 3.24, 5.18, 3.24, 1.40, and 1.73 over his last five starts. The GB rates have been absurdly high, and he’s really limited hard contact his past three starts, something he really struggled with prior to that. In fact, his three lowest Hard% outings of the year are his last three starts: 30%, 22%, and 16%. On top of this, Richard is really cheap, especially on FD, so there’s some margin for error for the SP who consistently works deep into games.
Zack Godley (ARI) is just behind Richard in our overall SP projections. Godley has struggled this year after a breakout campaign last season. His xwOBA is up to .367 as his K-BB% has shrunk from 17.9% to 10.1% while also allowing higher quality contact. Godley is in the most favorable pitching environment on the slate (in San Francisco) and by a small margin also has the highest K projection. However, a slightly higher IRTA and lower batters faced/outs baseline than Richard, keeps him a hair behind.
There’s a small gap between Richard/Godley and our next tier of SPs, which includes Julio Teheran (ATL), Nick Tropeano (LAA), and Domingo German (NYY). Teheran has the most upside of the group, gaining a positive park shift while facing a Padres team that ranks 26th in wRC+ against RHP with a high 25.9 K%. Recent performance keeps Teheran in this tier rather than the first tier; his K% the last four starts has been 10.7%, 16.7%, 15.4%, and 4.4%.
Tropeano is the Vegas darling of the slate, pegged as the second largest favorite (-190) with the lowest IRTA (3.6).
German is actually the largest favorite (-200), but it’s a high total game in Detroit where the wind will be blowing out to LC. German is going to be a volatile fantasy asset since he’s wild and will give up homers but also has legitimate K upside (currently a 27.5 K%).
With secondary pitching ugly on this slate, on DK it’s possible to play a cheap Derek Holland (SF) who is at home and surprisingly a favorite with just a 3.8 IRTA. Using Holland allows you to maximize your offensive upside.
On the small three game slate, the gap between Gary Sanchez (NYY) and the rest of the catchers is even more exaggerated. With hitting essentially a pick-em, Gary Sanchez is the clear top target on DraftKings as he’s out-projecting Buster Posey by over two full points. Mike Fiers has struggled against both lefties and righties. He’s allowed a .347 wOBA and .205 ISO against RHBs since the start of last season. The Yankees have an implied total that is a run higher than everyone else on the slate. The only thing that would prevent us from jamming Sanchez in on DraftKings is if he’s not in the lineup due to the double-header.
If Sanchez is unavailable, Buster Posey (SF) is the most skilled alternative. It’s a below average matchup with Zack Godley (.300 wOBA, .164 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2017) and a below average park environment but the other options aren’t very attractive.
The potential power pivots are Tyler Flowers (ATL) and John Ryan Murphy (ARI) who both have the platoon edge and hit in decent lineup spots. Murphy’s had one of the more remarkable seasons as he’s registered 22 hits total but 8 of them have gone for home runs. He’s sporting a 3.6 percent BB Rate and 27.7 K Rate but a nice .367 ISO.
Greg Bird (NYY) and Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) top the first base projections. Both have the platoon edge against below average pitchers on the road, but Bird comes with the far friendlier offensive environment with a 5.5 implied total compared to Arizona’s 3.8. The gap in the two players’ skill-sets makes the projection competitive as Goldschmidt has a monstrous .396 wOBA and .245 ISO baseline against LHP. With Bird cheaper and slightly out-pacing Goldschmidt he finds his way into most of our optimals. We recommend utilizing one of these two first basemen if playing cash games.
Eric Hosmer (SD) has a friendly matchup with Julio Teheran‘s wide platoon splits (.336 wOBA, .200 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2017) but Hosmer’s not particularly a great power player which makes him less likely to take advantage of the big ISO allowed. This is especially the case in a park that suppresses LH power like PETCO. He’s the most interesting one-off pivot.
In terms of stacks, the Angels will be interesting against Danny Duffy‘s wide platoon split and the bad Royals’ bullpen behind him. This makes Albert Pujols (LAA) and Jefry Marte (LAA) viable tournament targets. On FanDuel, Marte is a viable cash game target at the utility spot for just a $2,200 price tag.
With Zack Cozart (LAA) back at the top of the Angels lineup over the weekend, he now draws a favorable matchup against Danny Duffy who has really struggled against RHBs (.352 wOBA, .185 ISO allowed since 2017). Cozart is also affordable which doesn’t matter a ton but at a position where one of the Yankees top options isn’t available, it does help. Cozart is your cash game target on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, the position is much more of a nuisance. Ozzie Albies (ATL) is your top projected option but he carries a hefty price tag ($4,300) that makes him a below average option. Joe Panik (SF) and Ian Kinsler (LAA) are the cheapest of a group of bad options and thus are the best values. In order to load up on all the great Yankees bats you’ll need to choose one of these two options to save salary. Projections prefer the extra PA upside of Panik slightly ahead of Kinsler.
In tournaments, Gleyber Torres (NYY) will likely carry a much lower ownership number than all the other Yankees studs. The main reason isn’t the high price tag but simply the limitations on how many Yankees you can fit into a lineup. As long as Torres is hitting towards the very bottom of the order, his ownership will come in at a fraction of all the other studs.
Zack Cozart (LAA) and Mike Moustakas (KC) are the top projected third base options. Both are in the same hitting environment but the Angels have a superior implied run total. This is pushing Cozart up a bit beyond Moustakas despite the wide gap in their skill sets. Moustakas has a .358 wOBA/.239 ISO baseline against RHP while Cozart is just at .326 wOBA/.173 ISO against LHP. On DraftKings, you’ll likely use both with Cozart occupying second base. On FanDuel, either are in play though Cozart comes at the better price tag.
Much like Gleyber Torres at second base, Miguel Andujar (NYY) will come with lower ownership at third base as a part of the Yankees bottom of the order that has been stack friendly throughout the last month.
Cory Spangenberg (SD) is one of the more interesting cheap tournament pivots. We noted Teheran’s struggles against LHBs and while Spangenberg isn’t a great hitter he does hit from the left side. Additionally, neither of the Braves’ catchers are adept at controlling the running game where Spangenberg can aggressively add value.
Didi Gregorius (NYY) still plays for the Yankees so he’s our top option at shortstop. Gregorius’ lineup spot has slipped a bit but the lack of depth at the SS position may make Gregorius a preferred target over other Yankees’ hitters due to positional scarcity. Gregorius doesn’t have the benefit of Yankee Stadium short porch but he does face a below average RHP backed up by a bad bullpen.
The primary pivots from Gregorius are Andrelton Simmons (LAA) who is a part of our second highest rated offense: the Angels. Simmons has rather wildly out-performed our baseline expectations this year against LHP with a .392 wOBA fueled by a .333 BABIP and ridiculous 18.6 BB Rate that is more than three times his 5.7 K Rate. Simmons is unlikely to hit for big power but Danny Duffy‘s high BB Rate against RHBs makes him likely to score points.
Nick Ahmed (ARI) is the cheaper pivot as he has a similarly favorable matchup with Derek Holland who has allowed a ridiculous .392 wOBA and .256 ISO to RHBs since the start of 2017. Ahmed isn’t a great hitter against LHP (.304/.153 baseline) but he’s been hitting second and he’s priced like a punt play. Salary relief really isn’t a priority on this slate but if you need it, he’s available.
Mike Trout (LAA), Giancarlo Stanton (NYY), and Aaron Judge (NYY) out pace all the other outfielders in projection by nearly two points. It’s not difficult to fit the entire trio on DraftKings but you’ll likely get restricted to two of the three on FanDuel. Trout is the best choice as he brings an unbelievably combination of floor and ceiling through his own unique skill set. Stanton outpaces Judge for us in projection and comes cheaper which makes him the choice for our optimals but Judge is only $300 more. Since the start of last season Stanton has posted a .359 wOBA/.267 ISO against RHP while our baseline is much more aggressive due to the park shift this season (.381 wOBA/.329 ISO) compared to Judge who has posted the ridiculous .445 wOBA/.352 ISO against RHP but because of a shaky minor league track record has a more modest .373/.270 baseline against RHP. If you adjust the two to their performance of the last year, Judge looks like the better spend.
Brett Gardner (NYY) and Justin Upton (LAA) are the mid-tier outfielders to consider in cash games on FanDuel where you’ll need to dip into a bit of salary relief to make everything work. Gardner is the leadoff hitter on the best offense on the slate while Upton has historically mashed LHP posting a .416 wOBA and .302 ISO since the start of last season.
We’d generally want to keep all of our outfield decisions between those five guys but if you’re stretching Aaron Hicks (NYY), Andrew McCutchen (SF), and Nick Castellanos (DET) are the highest projected alternatives.
1) New York Yankees
The gap in stack rating between the Yankees and the rest of the field is absolutely massive. The wind is blowing out over 15 mph to LF, which is great for all of the right-handed power in the lineup. It also amplifies the positives of a matchup with Mike Fiers, who will allow a lot of balls in play. Of those balls in play, an above average amount of them are hard-hit, aerial contact.
2) Los Angeles Angels
Danny Duffy has struggled mightily this year, ranking 238th out of 252 pitchers who have faced at least 100 batters in xwOBA. He’ll likely have a difficult time facing a heavily right-handed Angels lineup that has a 4.9 IRT.
3) Arizona Diamondbacks
4) San Diego Padres
5) Detroit Tigers
6) San Francisco Giants
7) Kansas City Royals
Every team besides Atlanta that is remaining makes our third tier of stacks. The rating on these stacks is really low, and on a regular sized slate none of them would be ranked.
Of this tier the only teams we have small interest in, mostly as mini stacks, are the Diamondbacks given Holland’s propensity to give up power to RHBs, the Padres given Teheran’s wide splits and several speedy LHBs who can take advantage of Atlanta’s inability to control the running game, and, to a lesser extent, the Tigers given German’s combination of a high BB and high HR rate that could lead to some volatility.