June 5th MLB DFS Picks
Welcome to this week’s Friday picks article where I give the top plays to those who want to save a little cash and stay in on a Friday night. I’m going to try and help you win a bit of money so you can actually afford to go out on Saturday night and deal with the crazy Uber surge rates. Here are some of my favorite plays on Friday night.
**Stats included come from end of Wedneday’s MLB action.
Jake Odorizzi might be my top pitcher of the night with his matchup against the Mariners. He just faced them two starts ago and pitched very well giving up just five hits and one run over seven innings. He also added seven strikeouts, which isn’t surprising considering the Mariners 23.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Odorizzi’s strikeout numbers are down this season, but I expect them to be up for this start.
If you want to go a little cheaper then look at Jose Quintana against my Tigers. He’s certainly a hit or miss pitcher with three starts over five earned runs in 10 games started, but he’s worth whatever risk you want to call it against Detroit. He’s striking out almost a batter per inning (55 in 60.1 innings) and although the Tigers are one of the three teams that have rouged him up, I’m going to give him a pass. The Tigers that scored nine on him in April aren’t that team right now. They are missing Victor Martinez (leading Tigers in wOBA against LHP in 2015) and the team has scored just 18 runs in their last nine games.
Carlos Santana is a guy I’m really looking at hard at the catcher position with his ability to hit the ball against RHP. Against them this season, he has a .376 wOBA and .240 ISO, all despite an unfortunate .227 BABIP. He faces one tonight against the Baltimore Orioles in Chris Tillman, a guy who has really struggled in 2015. Four of his 10 starts have resulted in five plus runs and he has given up seven home runs in 53 innings.
There’s been one mid-range play that I look to a lot when in need of a little cap relief and that’s A.J. Pierzynski. He’s a very solid hitter against RHP (.339 wOBA) and hits in the middle of that Braves order on a consistent basis. He has a .170 ISO as well in these matchups and will get one tonight against Charlie Morton. He kind of had a reverse split in 2014, but in 2013 there was a huge differential against lefty batters (.380 wOBA) than right-handed hitters (.247 wOBA). Pierzynski is worth a look at a low price.
With Jonathon Niese throwing Friday night, I think a lot of Diamondbacks hitters are in play. It all starts with Paul Goldschmidt in that offense and he’s the top play in the game. In 2014, he posted a .470 wOBA and .205 ISO against left handers and so far this season he is doing more of the same (.455/.302). He no longer has Mark Trumbo in the lineup, but I don’t see protection being any cause for concern for Goldschmidt tonight.
If you’re not a fan of Goldschmidt then you can always look to Jose Abreu as a top hitter. He’s facing an unknown to many starting pitcher in Kyle Ryan of the Tigers. He’s a southpaw with limited innings in his career and presents a great matchup for Abreu. Abreu has posted a .435 wOBA and .277 ISO with the platoon edge in his one and a half seasons in the MLB. He certainly has had no issues learning how to hit MLB pitching since breaking into the league in 2014.
Is there a hotter hitter in baseball than Jason Kipnis? Although he is just one for eight in June, he hit .429 in May with a 1.217 OPS. He hit 15 doubles, three triples and four home runs in May, changing the phrase “April showers bring May flowers” to “April showers bring May extra base hits.”
I really like the way Stephen Drew is playing right now… Just kidding! Another great option at second base tonight is Brian Dozier. He’s better against left-handed pitching, but is still very good against right-handers. His wOBA is .349, but most impressively his ISO this season is .234 against them. Lohse is really struggling in 2015 against RHBs with a .402 wOBA.
Mike Moustakas is hitting very well this season (.332), but needs to get some power to be a really good Fantasy option. I don’t consider him a great GPP option, but in cash games he should be considered. He is getting base at a great rate and is facing a guy (rookie RHP Alex Gonzalez) with five walks in his last start. Sure, he only gave up two hits in 5.2 innings, but he’s going to have a hard time getting past these Royals with bad control.
I’m not going to go in-depth with these two plays, but Martin Prado and Nolan Arenado are two very nice options with two different price tags tonight. I like them both because of the weaker matchups they face and the park they’ll be hitting in (Coors Field). Arenado has eight hits in the last six games while Prado has 10 in the same string of games.
Erick Aybar is a guy the premium writers here are Daily Roto always like due to being a switch hitter and a good spot in the order and I’ll follow their lead Friday. He gets a nice matchup against Nathan Eovaldi who has a .415 wOBA against left-handed batters. Aybar’s own numbers aren’t the best, but with this matchup at a weak position, he needs to be considered.
I think there is a case for every single outfielder in the Colorado/Miami game due to it being at Colorado and the lack of a star pitcher on the mound for either team. Tom Koehler and Eddie Butler both have ERAs over 4.00 and are susceptible to blow up games.
With a lefty on the mound for the Mets, I really like A.J. Pollock and his great spot in the order. He hits in front of Goldschmidt and is great against southpaws. In 2014, he posted a .407 wOBA and a .340 ISO. That is 43 and 177 points better than his numbers against right-handed pitching. He only had 50 at bats against them last season, but in 45 at bats this year his wOBA is .439 and ISO .200. I think it’s fair to say Pollock is a great option against a LHP tonight.
I already talked about Eovaldi’s struggles against left-handed bats, and I want to harp on it more. I think Kole Calhoun is a very good option as long as he isn’t hitting sixth or worst Friday. He posted a .348 wOBA and .190 ISO against right-handers last season and should be a part of an Angels offense with a good implied run total. Calhoun and the Angels LHBs also benefit massively from playing in Yankee Stadium.
Brandon Guyer has been hitting atop the Rays lineup in recent games against southpaws and that should be the case tonight against J.A. Happ. Guyer has a .347 wOBA and .149 ISO against them this season, which is better than when he faces righties. The Rays lineup is very good against LHP overall, posting a team .332 wOBA (tied for fifth in MLB), which only boosts Guyer’s upside.
Agree or disagree with Chris’ selections? What players are you riding to victory?