Welcome to June 6 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for June 6 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
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June 6 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) tops the projections on Wednesday’s main slate with the strongest strikeout projection (seven), the lowest implied total against (3.1), and the heaviest favorite (-260). Ohtani faces a Royals’ offense that ranks 23rd in wRC+ against RHP with a well below average K Rate (17.7 percent). The Royals certainly suppress strikeouts which is a concern for Ohtani but his price tag isn’t that of the usual stud pitcher which makes a lower strikeout expectation more palatable. We view Ohtani as a strong building block in cash games and the highest upside starter on the slate.
The second tier of starters is a volatile group with challenging matchups that includes Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS), Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU), and Aaron Nola (PHI). Nola faces a top five Cubs offense against RHP while McCullers faces a primarily RH dominant Mariners’ offense which is a challenge for McCullers’ reverse splits. Since the start of last year McCullers has been utterly dominant against LHBs (.260 wOBA, .099 ISO, 27.6 K Rate) and more mortal against RHBs (.328 wOBA, .145 ISO, 23.1 K Rate). Finally, Eduardo Rodriguez faces a Tigers’ offense that is fourth in wRC+ against LHP this season with a well below average K Rate (18.1 percent). Nola is the only one with a bit of a cost prohibitive price tag but in general we prefer all these options in tournaments on both sites.
The next tier is where we believe you’ll find your SP2 on DraftKings as Jose Quintana (CHC) and Jake Odorizzi (MIN) project a bit behind the better skilled starters ahead of them thanks to a wide gap in matchups. Quintana faces a Phillies’ offense without Rhys Hoskins that is more vulnerable to LHP now. Quintana is priced like the tier above though, so he’s more in the tournament conversation as well. Odorizzi is the intriguing cash game target with a really nice price tag $7,300 against one of the weakest offenses in all of baseball. The White Sox rank 13th in wRC+ against RHP but they project far worse and they come with a solid strikeout rate. Odorizzi has an implied total around four and is a big -165 favorite. You certainly could emphasize skill over Odorizzi’s matchup and price tag which would get you up to McCulllers/Rodriguez/Quintana alongside Ohtani but our projections view that as a bit of an overspend.
In tournaments, Jon Gray (COL) makes sense outside of Coors Field with a mid-tier price tag. The Reds aren’t a soft matchup on paper, especially in Cincinnati, but they rank 22nd in wRC+ against RHP this season. Gray’s peripherals have all been strong outside of allowing too much hard contact which he’s been punished for in Colorado.
Jack Flaherty (STL) is likely overpriced at over $10,000 but the matchup with the Marlins makes him a viable target in GPPs. Flaherty has been dominant against RHBs this season (.272 wOBA, .118 ISO, 31.3 K Rate).
Mitch Garver (MIN) and Gary Sanchez (NYY) are the top two catchers at the position on Wednesday, but they are made up very differently. Garver is the cheap option, inconsistently positioned in the lineup but given the platoon edge on left-hander Hector Santiago. Garver is not a platoon monster, but merely a matchup with Santiago (5.4+ xFIP in each of last three seasons) should instill some sort of confidence. The Twins have an implied run total of five runs, and Garver is priced at $2,700 on DraftKings and the bare minimum $2,000 on FanDuel. He snuck his way into the sixth spot of the lineup last night, and that’s where we have him projected.
Sanchez is at the top of the food chain, getting a matchup with Sam Gaviglio in Toronto. He is priced considerably higher than Garver (though is still a better value) and the matchup with Gaviglio is not quite as cakey as the matchup with Santiago. The batted ball data is also discouraging (3.8% Hard% last fifteen), though the Yankees have an implied run total of 5.1 runs on the road in Toronto. He has the highest upside of any of the catching options and is potentially affordable – he needs to be in consideration.
Russell Martin (TOR), Robinson Chirinos (TEX), and Jonathan Lucroy (OAK) provide a cheap tier of catchers that are all close enough to be considered in cash games. Martin will have to face the best opposing pitcher in Sonny Gray, but he’ll also get the best lineup spot and has a reasonable price tag on both sites.
Chirinos was an early season darling given his actual power upside. Daniel Mengden is a heavy contact arm, and has allowed a big discrepancy between Hard% minus Soft% thus far (20.7%). The weather in Texas also makes the game one of the best for run scoring on the entire slate. Lucroy will also suit up there, albeit against Bartolo Colon. The lineup spot is horrendous, and the skills have sharply declined but his team has an implied run total of 5.3 runs and his price is just $2,900 on DraftKings. He’s also the bare minimum on FanDuel.
Matt Olson (OAK) and Joey Votto (CIN) are the consensus eligible first basemen on both sites. Olson and the A’s have an implied run total above five runs getting a nice park shift to face the Rangers in Arlington. His claim to fame is his power (.395 wOBA, .325 ISO versus RHP since 2015) – but perhaps the bigger story here is the near removal of a potential strikeout. Olson has struck out nearly 28% of the time versus right-handed pitchers in his brief career, but opponent Bartolo Colon sports nearly a 16.5% K%. At $4,400 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel he’s very affordable.
So too is Votto, who will be in his home park against Jon Gray. That’s not quite as exciting, as Gray is nearly the polar opposite of Colon, but Votto against any right-hander in his home park is something to try and take advantage of. Votto’s numbers against RHP are even more astounding, posting a .420 wOBA and .230 ISO. Gray has largely outperformed his ERA, so don’t be distracted as he’s still a very difficult arm to pick on.
After the top two, it’s a bit site specific. Miguel Sano (MIN) and Joey Gallo (TEX) are first base eligible on DraftKings where they are two of the top values. Sano will be one of many other Twins recommended given his matchup with Santiago, but unlike Garver – for good reason. He’s posted a .370 wOBA and .256 ISO versus southpaws since 2015.
Gallo on the other hand will grab the platoon edge on Mengden, and we keyed earlier on his inability to set hitters down via the strikeout. That’s a huge plus for Gallo, who struggles most when he is facing guys who can put him away consistently. A herculean .297 ISO versus RHP has been posted, but so too has a 36.5% K%. He won’t have to worry so much against Mengden.
On FanDuel there is a big drop off after Olson and Votto, leading us to Greg Bird (NYY) and even Cody Bellinger (LAD). Bird has the more compelling overall context, playing in Toronto against Sam Gaviglio. He has great batted ball data, and an implied run total above five runs – but it’s tough to foresee us spending the same price on him as Matt Olson. Bellinger gets a much less appealing overall matchup in Pittsburgh against Trevor Williams. Yet Williams too is high contact and Bellinger has punished RHP as far as power is concerned.
Brian Dozier (MIN) is the king alone at second base, even with a $4,100 tag on FanDuel. At $4,200 on DraftKings, he’s nearly a no brainer with the platoon edge on flyballer Hector Santiago. Much like his teammate Miguel Sano, Dozier has punished southpaws in the last few seasons, posting a .377 wOBA and .262 ISO in the split. Hector Santiago has allowed more than 2 HR/9 thus far, and even ZiPS and Steamer project him to finish around 1.90 HR/9 the rest of season. He is the perfect opponent for offensive upside.
Squaring off against each other, Rougned Odor (TEX) and Jed Lowrie (OAK) would be next in line after Dozier. They are a bit more in play where it’s more difficult to fit Dozier on FanDuel, but even still it’s tough to automatically jump to them over Dozier. Odor has been solid against RHP in his young career, but he doesn’t come with as compelling of a lineup spot as we have him projected as the sixth place hitter against Mengden. While the batted ball data isn’t overly impressive either, Odor’s .217 ISO versus RHP since 2015 is worthy enough at $3,300 on DK and $2,400 on FD.
The switch hitting Lowrie is slightly better to get from the left side when considering upside. That’s where we’ll get him against Bartolo Colon, who like Hector Santiago has greatly struggled with the longball (2.04 HR/9). Lowrie’s tag though falls in the middle of Odor and Dozier on FanDuel, making him a slightly awkward spend.
D.J. LeMahieu (COL) and Eduardo Nunez (BOS) warrant some consideration as well, particularly in tournaments. The Rockies travel away from Coors but find Coors Lite (ha!) in Great American Ball Park. Nunez and company have an implied run total of 5.6 runs and get Blaine Hardy and a bottom five bullpen via xFIP.
If you’re entertaining spending up for Dozier, you cannot leave Jose Altuve (HOU) out of the conversation. He’s been phenomenal against LHP – and has posted a .392 wOBA and .175 ISO in the split since 2015.
Back to Miguel Sano (MIN) who got a small piece about himself at first base where he is eligible on DraftKings. With third base eligibility on both sites, and a rather affordable price tag ($3,600 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings) in each place, it’s really difficult to get away from him for cash game talk.
Matt Chapman (OAK) and Adrian Beltre (TEX) follow in the Texas heat. Chapman is another one of the lower lineup guys, but one that has tremendous power potential (.224 ISO versus RHP since 2015) and will likely come at much lower ownership than someone like Sano. The A’s 5.3 implied run total is the second highest on the slate.
The Rangers is a bit less enticing at 4.7 runs, but it projects to be a great run scoring environment on Wednesday. Beltre has recemented himself in the fourth spot of the order, and he’s actually priced at even cheaper than Chapman ($2,700 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings). Though he’ll come with less overall individual upside, he’s posted great batted ball data and represents a way to get some different exposure at the position.
It doesn’t exactly end there. Alex Bregman (HOU) will get the platoon edge on Wade LeBlanc. Nolan Arenado (COL) might go overlooked but is still in an excellent park against the homer happy, 5.06xFIP posting of Sal Romano. Plus now he’s the road hitter.
Marcus Semien (OAK) shines as the brightest diamond at shortstop. The right-hander always comes as a bit of a surprise when talking about sneaky power, but we have him projected for a .171 ISO in the split. There isn’t much good to say about Bartolo Colon outside of the entertainment value he provides, as he’s allowed 2+ home runs in four starts this season, with two of those starts allowing four total home runs. At $3,900 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel he floods all the early optimals.
On FanDuel the conversation continues with only the best of the best, as Carlos Correa (HOU) and Xander Bogaerts (BOS) are the next best value options on the site. They’ll cost a bit more than Semien, but not so much that they are out of reach and each guy will have the platoon edge in their favor. It’s the Red Sox who win the overall context battle, playing at home against Blaine Hardy and a bad bullpen, but Correa is ultimately the better gifted shortstop, posting a .373 wOBA and .206 ISO versus LHP since 2015.
Eduardo Nunez (BOS) has shortstop eligibility on DraftKings, where you can try to take advantage of a less expensive route to the Red Sox. Ehire Adrianza (MIN) comes with a bad lineup spot, but good batted ball data, an excellent matchup and the platoon edge on Hector Santiago, and a very cheap price tag.
His teammate Eduardo Escobar (MIN) and traveling Trevor Story (COL) need not be forgotten for tournament play where most ownership should concentrate on Semien. Jurickson Profar (TEX) has shortstop eligibility on both sites. He’s hit either second or fifth in the last week, but he’s got a reasonable price tag and as a switch hitter will always come with the platoon edge.
Matt Joyce (OAK) and Joey Gallo (TEX) enjoy the spoils of an often mentioned Texas/Oakland game in the sweltering heat in Texas. Joyce is just $2,900 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings – far too cheap for a bat that has excelled versus RHP (.338 wOBA .206 ISO since 2015) and now gets Bartolo Colon (though the Rangers will have two left-handers available in the pen). We talked about Gallo’s prodigious power versus RHP at first base, but he’s actually eligible in the outfield on both sites as well. He sneaks into early optimals on both sites.
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) rounds out the top three on both sits. He projects as the second highest scorer in the outfield (only after Lord Trout) but priced at just $5,100 on DraftKings and $4,600 on FanDuel – he’s actually not out of reach in either format. He shows up in a few more of the optimals on DraftKings where you can let the second starting pitcher open up cap room for you.
Khris Davis (OAK), Mike Trout (LAA), Charlie Blackmon (COL), J.D. Martinez (BOS), and Carlos Gonzalez (COL) help to round out the top ten of value bats (despite some really solid name value) on the slate in the outfield. Krush Davis perhaps flies under the radar in a smaller market in Oakland, but he’s mightily powerful (.279 ISO versus RHP since 2015). Much like the other Crush Davis, he just struggles with the strikeout – something of which we don’t have to worry too much about against Bartolo Colon.
Trout is Trout, projecting above everyone else, hitting the ball hard 40% of the time and still nearly breaking the value model priced at $6,000 on DraftKings. Blackmon and Cargo are an interesting pair, as both will get the platoon edge, have excelled against RHP and now are the road hitters near the top of a powerful lineup that is in a great park.
Cargo is the cheap one, at $2,700 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings he’s rather affordable.
J.D. Martinez (BOS) and the Red Sox have the highest implied run total on the slate. Without Mookie Betts their lineup might fall by the wayside a bit, but Martinez has been excellent and has beaten lefties to the tune of a .412 wOBA and .291 ISO since 2015.
Options like Shin-Soo Choo (TEX), Curtis Granderson (TOR), and Jesse Winker (CIN) are just behind the aforementioned group of hitters but all represent viable values at the top of their respective orders. All three are priced in the lower, middle tier and can be used as one offs or fill ins as a part of cash game lineups.
1) Oakland Athletics
2) New York Yankees
3) Colorado Rockies
For the first time in a while we have a more congested first tier in the stack rankings. The Athletics get another ideal spot with a big park shift and temperatures warm in Arlington. They get to face Bartolo Colon who has somehow kept hitters to a .228 BABIP despite allowing a 43 percent hard hit rate. Colon has been battered by both righties (.373 wOBA, .249 ISO) and lefties (.356 wOBA, .217 ISO) since the start of last season. The Athletics are the cheapest of the top tier stacks and should represent one of the more popular stacks to target on this slate.
The Yankees are the most expensive of this group and may come in a bit under owned because of the price tags and Sam Gaviglio’s hot start to the season. Gaviglio has been a league average swing guy for the last few seasons but at age 28 he’s having the best start of his career which carried over after a few good starts in AAA. It’s difficult to see what has changed for Gaviglio as his average fastball velocity is still just 88 mph but he’s been able to generate more swings outside the strike zone and thus some weaker contact on the ground. We’re skeptical that this is real and behind him is a Jays’ bullpen that has really struggled in the absence of Roberto Osuna.
The Rockies were contrarian last night but probably won’t be quite as contrarian on Wednesday night. They still will likely out-project their ownership as a stack but may have some individual pieces that carry more ownership, making them a decent value again in GPPs.
4) Texas Rangers
5) Minnesota Twins
The Rangers and Twins are solid value stacks on this slate. Daniel Mengden is ripe for regression as he’s allowed a .247 BABIP and 7.1 percent HR/FB Rate despite allowing a 36.5 hard hit rate with a 46.5 pull rate. Pitching in Oakland helps suppress homers but Mengden’s pitching above his head.
The Twins get to face Hector Santiago who is the rare lefty that is bad against both lefties and righties, fly ball prone, and vulnerable to stolen bases. He’s practically the perfect pitcher to stack against and he’s backed up by an awful bullpen. The Twins make plenty of our optimals but with many of their best options L-on-L they may come in with a reasonable stack ownership.
6) Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox oddly rank as our sixth stack despite coming with the highest implied total on the slate. It’s certainly not a bad matchup but the offense doesn’t have the same upside without Mookie Betts. We like individual pieces better than the stack as a whole.
7) Houston Astros
8) St. Louis Cardinals
9) Cincinnati Reds
Houston comes in a bit under-the-radar because of the unique depth of middle infield options on the slate and the Astros higher price tags makes Correa-Altuve-Bregman-Springer all tertiary options despite having the platoon edge at home.
The Cardinals are a fun contrarian stack on this slate as they’re better suited to attack LHP and the lineup depth is far better with Yadier Molina back. With temperatures in the high 80s in St. Louis and a fly ball oriented lefty on the mound, the Cardinals are set up as a really nice under-the-radar stack.