FNTSY SportsGrid RotoExperts
June 8 MLB DFS: Yes We McCann
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

June 8 MLB DFS: Yes We McCann

01:01 Starting Pitchers
09:10 Catchers
11:36 First Base
13:47 Second Base
16:31 Shortstop
17:56 Third Base
19:57 Outfield
23:24 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

premium_access_now  HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | WELL-HIT RATINGS | HITTER MODEL (BETA)

1x


June 8 MLB DFS Pro Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Noah Syndergaard (NYM)

2) Max Scherzer (WAS)

Tier Two

3) Madison Bumgarner (SF)

Tier Three

4) Yu Darvish (TEX)

5) David Price (BOS)

6) Kenta Maeda (LAD)

7) Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

Tier Four

8) Jameson Taillon (PIT)

9) Jaime Garcia (STL)

Tier Five

10) Nathan Eovaldi (NYY)

Noah Syndergaard‘s (NYM) current peripherals (2.04 xFIP, 1.78 FIP, 32.9 K percentage) basically put him in the Clayton Kershaw tier, only over less innings (still averaging around 6.2 IP per start, excluding the ejection). As a result, we’re building cash teams around him. The matchup isn’t great as the Pirates are a below average DFS matchup from both a wRC+ and K% standpoint. This is all about Syndergaard’s skills at a still affordable price tag in a great pitcher’s park.

Max Scherzer (WAS) is best used as a tournament pivot since he’s flashed less dominance, faces an AL team in a hitter’s park, and is generally more expensive across the industry.

Madison Bumgarner (SF) and David Price (BOS) are complementary plays on DraftKings if really loading up on starting pitching. They face off against each other in a very favorable park. The issue are the offenses of the Red Sox (first in wRC+ against LHP) and the Giants (sixth), who both rank among the eight stingiest teams in terms of punching out against LHP. Both should do fine but the upside appears to be a bit limited. Note that Buster Posey has a thumb issue. His absence would make Price pretty attractive in cash games on DraftKings.

As a result, we really like Yu Darvish (TEX) in tournaments. He’ll get overlooked relative to the other expensive starting pitchers (higher opposing implied team total), but with a growing pitch count, elite K percentage (30.0 for his career), and encouraging velocity in two starts off the DL (fastball is slightly higher than career mark) gives him the opportunity to outscore some of the safer starting pitchers.

The best value however in the third tier is Kenta Maeda (LAD). As the league adjusts to Maeda, he’s experienced regression in both luck stats and skill stats (growing walk rate). However, we still view him as an above average starting pitcher with a solid K rate, making him well underpriced in a home matchup where the Rockies have the lowest implied team total on the slate (just over three runs) and Maeda is the largest favorite (-200).

Other options on this slate include Jameson Taillon (PIT) (making first MLB start, extremely impressive in 10 AAA starts; tournament viable), Jaime Garcia (STL) (ability to force weak, GB contact could help to mitigate park risk; priced too low on DraftKings, making him a viable cash alternative to Maeda as a cheaper second pitcher), and Nathan Eovaldi (NYY) (we’ve liked him in tournament formats due to the high risk/reward nature of his skill set – throws heat and generates Ks but allows hard hit contact in a plus hitter’s park).

Catcher Rankings

1) Brian McCann (NYY)

2) Buster Posey (SF)

3) Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)

4) Stephen Vogt (OAK)

5) Matt Wieters (BAL)

We really want exposure to the Yankees against Jered Weaver who is a horrible pitcher right now. The ERA sits at 5.18 backed up by a 5.60 FIP and 5.30 xFIP, and there’s nothing in the numbers to suggest any sort of a turnaround. Pitching in Yankee Stadium is particularly scary given a career low 29.4 GB rate and career high 22.3 hard minus soft hit rate. As a result, the affordable Brian McCann (NYY) is our prime target at the position. If Buster Posey (SF) is able to play, he’s worth a shot in tournaments (elite splits versus LHP, Price has a high hard minus soft hit rate). The best cash game alternative to McCann is Stephen Vogt (OAK). Vogt has been hitting third or fourth against RHP and gets a favorable matchup against Chase Anderson (5.36 FIP) in Milwaukee (large positive park shift).

First Base Rankings

1) Chris Davis (BAL)

2) Eric Hosmer (KC)

3) Matt Adams (STL)

4) Joey Votto (CIN)

5) Brandon Moss (STL)

Given pricing, you can pretty much use any of our top three ranked first basemen in cash games, with the exception being Eris Hosmer on DraftKings where he’s too pricey. Chris Davis (BAL) has been demoted to fifth given his struggles and Mark Trumbo‘s hot streak. However, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with the power peripherals (high fly ball rate, high hard hit rate), and the matchup against Edinson Volquez at home is a plus. Eris Hosmer (KC) is tough to gauge. The ISO (.204) is a career high and great to see, but he still doesn’t generate enough loft for consistent power. Either way, though, we like the large park shift in his favor playing in Baltimore against a below average RHP (4.26 xFIP). Matt Adams (STL) has the best matchup of the group. He’s in homer friendly Cincinnati against Alfredo Simon (8.94 ERA, 6.89 FIP, 5.42 xFIP) and the atrocious Reds bullpen. If he moves back to the cleanup spot he’d be our preferred option, but in the fifth spot the worse skill set keeps him a comparable value to the other two.

Second Base Rankings

1) Brian Dozier (MIN)

2) Jose Altuve (HOU)

3) Jurickson Profar (TEX)

4) Rougned Odor (TEX)

5) Daniel Murphy (WAS)

6) Derek Dietrich (MIA)

A lot of our second base values are dependent on lineup spot. We’re hoping to see Brian Dozier (MIN) in a top four lineup spot, but he hit fifth last night. Dozier is a decent buy low candidate. The peripherals aren’t great but certainly don’t justify the drop off in production we’ve seen. Opposing pitcher Wei-Yin Chen allows a lot of hard hit contract to RHBs and this year has been no different (21.9 hard minus soft hit rate). Both Jurickson Profar (TEX) and Rougned Odor (TEX) give you access to the Rangers offense (team total of 5). Derek Dietrich (MIA) gives you power if leading off. Ricky Nolasco has allowed a .340 wOBA and .166 ISO to LHBs for his career while Dietrich possesses a .185 career ISO (very good for a second baseman).

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Carlos Correa (HOU)

3) Aledmys Diaz (STL)

4) Eduardo Nunez (MIN)

5) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

We like Manny Machado (BAL) a lot given his elite skills, but he’s expensive and doesn’t mesh too well with cash game roster construction. He’s just a secondary value and you may be better off targeting options with similar per dollar value but a lower overall cost. Aledmys Diaz (STL) continues to impress and out of the two hole, he’s got a lot of contextual factors working in his favor in the matchup. He’s the industry wide mid-tier value, while Alcides Escobar (KC) (DraftKings) and Jhonny Peralta (STL) (FanDuel) represent the best punt options, a viable route to take tonight.

Third Base Rankings

1) Matt Carpenter (STL)

2) Alex Rodriguez (NYY)

3) Justin Turner (LAD)

4) Trevor Plouffe (MIN)

5) Adrian Beltre (TEX)

Matt Carpenter (STL) feels like a free 10 points on both sites given this matchup. The issue is the emphasis on paying up for Syndergaard, which may force you to go the value route here. Luckily, there are plenty of strong options. At the mid-tier level, Alex Rodriguez (NYY) allows you to pick on Jered Weaver. Even at this age ZiPS is projecting a .331 wOBA and .214 ISO, and Rodriguez has always been a neutral splits player (actually more power versus same handed pitching). On the cheap end, our “favorite” Justin Turner (LAD) makes roster construction pretty easy. With an awful LHP opposite him (Chris Rusin has allowed a .367 wOBA and .186 ISO to RHBs for his career), Turner makes a lot of sense as a cap relief option.

Outfield Rankings

1) Bryce Harper (WAS)

2) Mike Trout (LAA)

3) Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (cold)

4) Brett Gardner (NYY)

5) Matt Holliday (STL)

6) Ryan Braun (MIL)

7) Carlos Beltran (NYY)

8) Christian Yelich (MIA)

9) Stephen Piscotty (STL)

10) Nomar Mazara (TEX)

11) Domingo Santana (MIL)

12) Enrique Hernandez (LAD)

13) Coco Crisp (OAK)

14) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

15) Billy Burns (OAK)

A couple of cold but underpriced stud outfielders look to be prime values if you’re willing to ignore the cold streaks and buy low. Bryce Harper (WAS) gets a huge park shift playing in US Cellular Field, and it’s basically bombs away against James Shields. Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) won’t hold the platoon edge but faces the underwhelming Ricky Nolasco. If you do want to avoid those cold streaks or diversify a bit, Brett Gardner (NYY) and Matt Holliday (STL) give you exposure to our two favorite offenses. Some industry wide values to round out cash game rosters include Ben Revere (WAS) and Enrique Hernandez (LAD) (career .413 wOBA and .255 ISO against LHP; should lead off against Chris Rusin; 34.3 hard minus soft hit rate against southpaws this season). The other Yankee outfielders – Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY) are elite tournament options, but we also don’t mind forcing a mini-stack of Yankees in cash games.

Stacks

Tier One

1) St. Louis Cardinals

2) New York Yankees

Tier Two

3) Oakland Athletics

Tier Four

4) Texas Rangers

5) Washington Nationals

6) Milwaukee Brewers

7) Miami Marlins

We’re cognizant of trying to get some exposure to our top two stacks in cash games. We may be willing to leapfrog slightly better individual values in our model in preference of a Cardinals or Yankees player.

The rest of the teams are all fine in tournaments since so much ownership will likely be concentrated in the tier one of stacks. Specifically, the Oakland Athletics could get overlooked but this is one of the largest positive park shifts for a team on this slate. Chase Anderson has a 19.8 hard minus soft hit rate and a fly ball tilt, giving the Athletics plenty of power upside. Backing up Anderson is a bullpen with the eighth highest xFIP in the league.

1 Comment

  1. Fancy Action

    June 8, 2016 at 2:16 am

    Do you have a MLB trial offer avail? Thank You, Your site looks great!

MLB Daily Analysis

We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution. 

HAVING TROUBLE?









We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution. 

We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution. 

HAVING TROUBLE?









We are currently experiencing issues with the optimizer. Please check back periodically; Our engineers are working on a solution.