Welcome to June 9 MLB DFS action. You’ll find Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for June 9 MLB DFS along with LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using the customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
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June 9 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
Charlie Morton (HOU) is the clear top SP on a short slate as he takes on a Rangers offense that ranks 25th in wRC+ against RHP with a high 26 K%. With Morton’s skills (2.84 xFIP, 31.2 K%), the upside is tantalizing. However, the Texas heat (90-plus degrees) and some recent poor batted ball data for Morton (mean 46.8 Hard% last four starts), doesn’t make him a great spend on a slate that Coors Field dominates. We view Morton’s individual upside as playable in tournaments but are prioritizing the bats in cash games.
The next in line option at SP is Alex Wood (LAD), who is a bit more viable than Morton in cash games. While we still prefer to go cheaper, Wood has the lowest IRTA at 3.4 and is the heaviest favorite (-185). While Atlanta’s current team splits versus LHP make it look like a very unfavorable matchup, the injury to Acuna and Wood holding the platoon edge on three of the top four hitters puts Wood in a decent spot. We just have some minor concerns over the combination of K rate (average), longevity, and Hard-Soft% (23%, a lot different than career marks).
So with Morton and Wood viable but pricey options given preferred roster construction, we’re left with cheap options in Domingo German (NYY) and Steven Matz (NYM). German gets a positive park and league shift facing the Mets at Citi Field.German has struck out 24.6% of batters faced and is coming off a start in which he faced a season high 30 batters. German has the second lowest IRTA at 3.8 and is a strong -155 favorite. The matchup against the Mets lineup itself is a bit unfavorable (top half in wRC+ with a below average K rate), but ultimately German is priced too cheaply, especially on FD.
Matz is admittedly a terrifying option lacking the platoon edge against Sanchez/Judge/Stanton. The good news for Matz is a strikeout projection in line with all of the non-Morton options and much better batted ball data as of late. His xwOBA has fallen to .318 as he’s gone 10 straight innings without allowing a hard-hit ball and the GB rate keeps rising. Matz is just so much cheaper than any other viable SP on DK that he’s tough to bypass as an SP2.
It’s really difficult to see any meaningful upside on the other four SPs on this slate that makes them worth their incredible risk.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) carries the top projection at the catcher position in this condensed slate. He’ll have the platoon edge in an NL Park against Steven Matz, who’s allowed a .356 wOBA and .222 ISO to RHBs since the start of last season. Sanchez comes into this matchup with poor recent form (7.4% HHR over the L15), which might affect his ownership in tournaments. His long terms skills are obviously some of the best at the catcher position from the hitting side, so we’re pursuing him tonight.
While we like Sanchez, particularly in tournaments, our optimals want to grab cheaper guys at the position on both sites. Thankfully, we have a handful that rate very well and close enough to Sanchez in projection. Chris Iannetta (COL) is a standout on DK. He’s just $3,200 and while he usually doesn’t get good lineup spots, you’re getting out of the catcher position with a cheap option that gives you access to a Rockies offense that has a slate high 6.4 IRT.
Yasmani Grandal (LAD) and Evan Gattis (HOU) are two options that are popping in some of our FD optimals. They’re sub $3k on FD and we love their upside at those price tags. Grandal gets a matchup against Anibal Sanchez, who’s allowed a .197 ISO to LHBs since 2017. Grandal has generated a .337 wOBA and .223 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season.
Gattis is on the road in Arlington and he’ll have the platoon edge against a pitcher with fly ball tendencies (Mike Minor). He checks into this matchup with a 25.6% HHR over the L15.
One last target to consider in tournaments is John Ryan Murphy (ARI), who leads the catcher position in HHR over the L15 (33.3%) and he’s in Coors Field tonight.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) tops our first base projections for the second night in a row. This time he’ll have a matchup against Chad Bettis, who’s allowed a .344 wOBA and .161 ISO to RHBs since 2017. We have a .373 wOBA, .228 ISO baselines for Goldschmidt vs. RHP, and frankly those are outliers at the position in this slate. We think Goldschmidt is a phenomenal target on both sites.
The only other first baseman with gaudy baselines that get close to Goldy’s in this slate is Cody Bellinger (LAD), who’s been red hot of late (26.9% HHR over the L15) and gets a friendly matchup against Anibal Sanchez. The cash game conversation likely begins and ends with Goldy tonight, but Bellinger is a fine challenger in tournaments.
On FD, Yuli Gurriel (HOU) is an essential cash game piece. He’s the best sub $3k value in the entire slate on that site as he’ll have the platoon edge in Arlington and gets to hit no worse than fifth in the Astros’ lineup.
Joey Gallo (TEX) is a leverage option to consider in tournaments as he’ll have a difficult matchup against the best pitcher in the entire slate (Charlie Morton). Ian Desmond (COL) and Tyler Austin (NYY) deserve to be considered as part of stacks.
Jose Altuve (HOU) and DJ LeMahieu (COL) represent the top projected scorers at second base with a decently sized gap before we get to Daniel Descalso (ARI) in projection. While both are in incredible contexts – Altuve in Arlington with the platoon edge and LeMahieu leading off against a contact pitcher in Coors Field, pricing will dictate where we go between the two. LeMahieu is simply cheaper on both sites and as a result will be a bigger part of optimals.
Descalso is simply not as skilled as Altuve and LeMahieu, which is the reason why he projects beneath them. He does check into his incredible context with the highest HHR (36.8%) over the L15 out of any second baseman in this slate and lately he’s been hitting cleanup for Arizona. He’s a fine tournament target.
If you need to go cheaper on FD, Rougned Odor (TEX) is the only punt option that’s even remotely interesting at the position. He’ll have the platoon edge albeit in a very difficult matchup, which is the reason why he projects as a breakeven value despite being in Arlington. We prefer getting up to Altuve-LeMahieu in cash games, but doing that will hurt your chances of rostering one of Goldy or Blackmon.
Nolan Arenado (COL) carries the top projection in the hot corner. He won’t have the platoon edge against Matt Koch but the latter won’t have any success in Coors Field with a sub 14% K rate. It’s also extremely hot in Colorado tonight, with the average temperature in the game in the low 90s. Unfortunately, Arenado is very pricey on both sites and Goldy-Blackmon have bigger projections.
Our optimals want Jake Lamb (ARI) or Alex Bregman (HOU), and it doesn’t feel like you could go wrong with either choice in their contexts. Lamb will have the platoon edge in Coors Field and he’s slugged a .368 wOBA and .248 ISO vs. RHP since 2017. Bregman will have the platoon edge in Arlington. He’s not as skilled as Arenado or Lamb but he gives you access to an Astros offense that has a similar IRT (5.7) as the Diamondbacks and he hits second. On FD, Lamb is the cheapest of this group ($3,900) which makes it easier to go with him in cash games but on DK it’s more of a conversation with both priced very similarly.
We’ll see if Justin Turner (LAD) is back in the Dodgers lineup, as he’s the only other third baseman in this slate that might be worth a look in tournaments. Miguel Andujar (NYY) has some appeal as part of Yankees stacks but he’s simply overpriced now.
Carlos Correa (HOU) carries the top projection at the shortstop position, but he hasn’t been in the lineup the last few nights. His MRI came back clean, so he’s expected to return either tomorrow or Sunday. If he’s back, he’ll have a matchup against Mike Minor, who’s allowed a .208 ISO to RHBs since the start of last season. Correa’s price tags are affordable on both sites, but on FD in particular it’s very intriguing at $3,800.
If Correa is out of the lineup, the straight pivot is Trevor Story (COL). Story gets a matchup against Matt Koch in Coors Field, and while Koch’s ERA is sub four, that’s completely fools gold. Story has been hitting no worse than fifth of late even against RHP. He’s priced appropriately on both sites but deserves consideration in all formats.
After Correa and Story, there’s a big drop off in projection. Chris Taylor (LAD) is next in line but he’s slightly overpriced on both sites. Ultimately, if you need some salary relief on FD and Correa isn’t in the lineup, Taylor will have to be considered in cash games.
Ketel Marte (ARI) would be interesting in tournaments on DK if he’s in the lineup and in a decent spot.
It’s Charlie Blackmon‘s (COL) turn to be the top projected scorer regardless of hitting position. Blackmon has generated a .414 wOBA and .286 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season and tonight he draws a soft matchup against Matt Koch in Coors Field where temperatures will be in the 90s. Blackmon is a starting point in cash games on the hitting side around the industry.
The next in line options after Blackmon are also in excellent spots as George Springer (HOU), Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) and Carlos Gonzalez (COL) will all have the platoon edge in their respective matchups. Of that group, CarGo is a bit cheaper. He hasn’t quite been the CarGo of old against RHP over the last couple seasons but he’s been better recently (27% HHR over the L15) and gives you access to the Rockies offense out of the cleanup spot.
Stanton is the option you should pursue aggressively in tournaments. He’s in a NL park but with the platoon edge he turns into an animal (.476 wOBA, .432 ISO vs. LHP since 2017).
Springer will hit out of the leadoff spot in Arlington and with the platoon edge he’s slugged a .412 wOBA and .261 ISO since last season. He’s been a part of optimals on both sites, though it’s much easier to roster him on DK alongside all the other high-end bats we like in this slate.
Other options to consider in cash games are David Peralta (ARI), Aaron Hicks (NYY) (on DK), Gerardo Parra (COL). If Joc Pederson (LAD) hits out of the leadoff spot once again, he’ll serve as a viable source of salary relief on FD where he’s just $2,700. Jake Marisnick (HOU) has made his way into some of our FD optimals despite hitting ninth. He’s priced at the bottom of the barrel in the OF, and in general it’s difficult to find options priced like that with decent projections on that site. We don’t hate that route as it’ll get you more high end bats in a slate that’s full of them.
Aaron Judge (NYY) is a viable high end option to consider in tournaments. He checks into this matchup with the platoon edge and a slate leading 45.5% HHR over the L15.
1) Colorado Rockies
The Rockies possess one of our highest stack scores all season long as they have a 6.4 IRT at home against Matt Koch, who ranks 273/280 qualified pitchers in xwOBA this season. This is an okay spot to swallow the chalk in tournaments.
2) Arizona Diamondbacks
3) Houston Astros
While the Diamondbacks don’t have as high of an IRT as the Rockies, the park shift and guaranteed nine innings on the road with a lower average cost throughout the lineup make them similarly valuable. One way to differentiate off of the obvious three stacks without being too contrarian is to simply use some bottom of the order bats that won’t carry the same ownership – like a Nick Ahmed or Jarrod Dyson in the case of the Diamondbacks.
The Astros face a LHP in Mike Minor who allows hard-hit aerial contact, leading to a .374 xwOBA and .286 xISO. Given the plethora of upside RHBs and 90-plus degree heat in Texas, the Astros are able to compete with the Coors Field game on this slate. The average cost of this stack is a bit cheaper on both sites than COL/ARI.
4) New York Yankees
5) Los Angeles Dodgers
The Yankees are a smart leverage stack on DK where using Matz to generate cap relief may end up a popular strategy and result in reduced Yankee ownership as a byproduct.
While Anibal Sanchez has pitched well for Atlanta this season, keep in mind he’s been lucky. More importantly, he’s the perfect pitcher to mini stack against given his HR issues. Sanchez is currently allowing 1.44 HR/9 after allowing 2.22, 1.76, and 1.66 HR/9 the previous three seasons.