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KayDreaming Week 10

KayDreaming Week 10
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First and foremost I’ve got to know Chris on Twitter (@RealestChrisKay), so give me a shout on there if you have one. My handle is: (@PutBoobieIn). I also recently just joined the LuDawgs community, thanks to Chris and go by the same handle (@PutBoobieIn). Sorry for the lame handle, but I’m a huge fan of “Friday Night Lights” and figured it was perfect once I started blogging about college fantasy football (collegefantasyfootballnews.com). “If you wanna win”…

Let me introduce myself, I’m from Minnesota (or JerrySota if you’re a believer like me). If you ever heard me talk I’d more than likely lose any if all credibility that I did or didn’t have immediately. No one who sounds like they’re from Canada knows anything about football right? No I don’t follow the CFL if you’re wondering… Last time I was in Vegas I got asked if I was from Winnipeg (no joke). Well… anyways I really have a passion for college football, eh. That passion really developed once the Big-Ten conference lost relevancy in the college football world. It sucked to suck in the Big-Ten. It really sucked to be the “suckiest” of the suck. I know quite a few people from the south and got quite a bit of grief from them about our football (or lack there of). Lets play hockey… Oh wait… You can consider me a fan with a chip on his shoulder. I can’t wait for the day our conference gets respect again. So if you get off on poking fun of the Big-Ten, I’m your guy. I’m a huge Big-Ten homer but keep things real, just thought I’d throw that out there. I could go on an on luckily for you I won’t bore you. But anyway’s enough with the blabber, here is my best attempt of “Kaydreaming.”

1.) How will the Texas A&M QB situation play out in the coming weeks?

This week I feel Kyle Allen could be a sneaky good play. I am no insider by any means when it comes to the Texas A&M football program, but A&M’s season has now become all about the future of the program. My initial thoughts after A&M’s beat down on behalf of the Alabama Crimson Tide was that Kevin Sumlin needs to assess his QB situation. Well, as of last week Sumlin has declared every position an “open battle.” As many of you probably already know, Kyle Allen was very highly touted coming out of high school. Allen was the unanimous #1 rated pro-style quarterback on most of the major recruiting services (ESPN, 247Sports, Rivals, & Scout). Recruiting rankings don’t mean everything (just ask Texas, Michigan, & Florida) but it speaks volumes about the talent he possesses. In my humble opinion, if Allen doesn’t get his opportunity to be “the guy” by season’s end I think he transfers. Especially with Kyler Murray on his way to College Station next year. It’s now or never in my eyes regarding Allen’s future with the program. At the very least, I think Allen sees 1-2 quarters in Saturday’s game. I forgot to mention, its a “cupcake” at that, with Louisiana Monroe. Over their past three games, the ULM defense is giving up an average of 431 yards of total offense per game. Arkansas State lit up this defense on October 4th to the tune of 572 yards of total offense. That should bode well for a quarterback in a pass happy offense that’s averaging nearly 45 passing attempts/game this season. In Texas A&M’s three games vs. “cupcake” opponents (Lamar, Rice, & SMU) QB’s are averaging 370 yards and 4 passing touchdowns per game. For fun, lets say Sumlin “evaluates” Allen in this game; taking a gamble on Allen (minimum priced QB on DK) could pay major dividends. Monitor this situation, at the very least use caution when thinking of rolling with Kenny Hill.

2.) J.T. Barrett has an outstanding matchup, but will he play enough to benefit from it?

When I first started to look at this weeks CFB games, I couldn’t stop staring at this game. J.T. Barrett vs. one of the worst defenses in the country in Illinois. After coming off of a relatively average performance (that included 2 overtimes) against Penn State (a defense I admit thought was overrated), I figured J.T. Barrett would get things rolling this week at a possible bargain. Well, on most sites the algorithm caught up with him and J.T. Barrett is once again one of the highest priced QB’s. I was cautious of Barrett from the get go due to an injury (MCL sprain) that will limit his practice participation this week. I’m not telling you to leave him off your rosters, but consider this: Ohio State has a matchup with Michigan State that some would argue is a “playoff qualifier” in itself. The winner of the Ohio-State/Michigan State game will likely determine the winner of the Big-Ten East, and the entire Big-Ten for that matter. Usually I’d think that Urbz would pour it on a lowly opponent, but I personally feel that with the injury to Barrett and the importance of next weeks game he won’t take the chance. The same can be said for Elliot Ezekiel to an extent. If your Urban, do you take the chance of your best players getting hurt before the biggest game of the season? One that could determine a playoff spot? With your quarterback’s MCL is sprained? I didn’t think so. I could be totally wrong on this, but for me the risk is too high. The combination of Barrett’s ankle and Michigan State game the next week are a big turn off to me. The matchup is sexy, but think long and hard before being seduced. (No pun intended)

3.) If Todd Gurley isn’t ruled eligible for the Florida game I will be shocked. 

I’m not going to get into the a pointless opinionated debate about college football integrity, but I have a lot of respect for Mark Richt. Georgia was proactive with this situation and had an internal investigation, and suspended their star player. Gurley basically admitted his faults and Georgia has now requested reinstatement. Now we wait for the NCAA. This was over a mere $400 I remind you. Well anyways not only do I feel Gurley gets reinstated, but so do quite a few people in the Georgia camp, as well as Will Muschamp (if that means anything). I haven’t even looked at Florida’s defensive rushing statistics, but I have seen Gurley’s price on a few different sites. As Chris mentioned on Twitter, if Gurley is ruled eligible he’s a must roster. Gurley is the 7th highest priced RB ($7,500) on Draft Kings for the early Saturday slate. In five games Gurley has played this year he’s scored over 37 pts in three of them (CLEM, TENN, & VAND). The other two games he played in he scored 26.5 (vs. South Carolina) and 7.5 (vs. Troy – in limited time “cupcake game”). Gurley is the most talented running back in the country. I fully expect him to be back; a rested and potentially angry Todd Gurley is a scary combination. Wasn’t the autograph broker who started all of this a Florida fan? Way to try to steal a Heisman from your arch-rival. If Gurley play’s he’ll be back in the Heisman conversation. Make sure you capitalize this weekend if he is reinstated.

4.) KD Cannon could be primed for a breakout performance. 

Sorry to any Kansas fans out there, but this football team just isn’t very good. Basketball season is near, so you’ll have plenty of “Rock Chalk” chants in the near future (I’m excited too, young Pitino for prez). In the meantime you’ll be seeing what some like to call “basketball on grass.” As we all know, this Baylor offense is incredibly potent. A guy that sticks out to me in this matchup is KD Cannon. I’m going to consider Kansas a lowly opponent (sorry again) and an excellent matchup for KD Cannon. This might be the worst team Baylor has played since week 3. In weeks two (49 pts vs. Northwestern State) and three (33 pts vs. Buffalo) Cannon had great games. In week 7, Cannon caught 6 passes for 124 yards and 1 touchdown (27 pts) against a very good TCU team. The only problem with some of these spread offenses is there’s so many mouths to feed. At the same time I’d rather take my chances on an offense that you know will be semi-productive on an off day, than I would on an offense that lacks explosiveness and could get shut down. Somebody’s got to eat, and with Cannon the price is right this week. There’s always a chance of him getting shut down, but he has six or more receptions in 4/7 games this season. The sky is the limit with Cannon. Keep in mind that when Cannon had his big games, Goodley and Coleman were both sidelined with injuries. Baylor only put up 27 points a couple of weeks ago when they were upset by West Virginia. Cannon only had 1 catch in that game. I’ve got a gut feeling Art Briles finds a way to get the player he once called “the greatest high school WR he’s ever seen” more involved. Cannon’s an elite talent and is fairly priced ($4,500 on DK).

5.) Low volume players should more times than not be considered high risk

Last week I’m sure some of your mouths were watering when the B.J. Catalon vs. Texas Tech matchup was put in front of your face. I was intrigued by the matchup as well (& even had him in a line-up or two) but knew it was a high risk option. Why? His carry numbers were very low. He had scored a TD in every game, but he only once had more than 13 carries. If your going to rely on a guy averaging 15 yards/touch every single week your out of your mind in my opinion. “A blind squirrel finds an acorn sometimes” though. For the most part the leaders in rushing statistics are generally atop the charts of rushing attempts. Same with passing and receiving. Never undervalue the importance of volume. If a RB’s in an offense that doesn’t run a lot think twice about it. If a WR is in a “run heavy” system, be aware it might not work out for you. Why are Big-Ten running backs so reliable? It’s a run heavy league. Why are Big-12 QB’s so consistent? It’s a pass happy league that has a ton of spread offenses. Sure you’ll hit on some of these guy’s every now and then, but if you want to win money more often than not check out player’s workloads. Why were most of us so high on David Cobb last week? Well the guy gets 30+ carries every single game and had a great matchup. Even if he has a bad game and goes under his season YPC average, he’ll still produce respectable numbers. If a low volume guy underproduces you’re screwed. Nobody can predict the future perfectly, but when you factor in volume and matchup’s you’re giving yourself a better chance of success. Its a better educated guess if you will. Hitting on low volume guys can at times be like “finding a needle in a haystack.” It takes luck to win a slot machine, but there’s a reason why DFS is legal. If you rely on trends to predict future outcomes you’re giving yourself a chance. Due to the diversity of college football offenses, you have a marginal advantage if you study “offensive philosophies.” A teams identity is huge in determining your roster (btw have fun enjoying the Georgia Southern run game on Thursday on ESPNU.) Another thing to consider: although plays per game might not win ballgames, it can play a huge role on your fantasy roster. Especially for QB’s and WR’s. Here’s a link to check out in the future: http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/plays-per-game . Just a few things to consider when doing research.

Hopefully you found some of this useful, give me a follow on Twitter @PutBoobieIn and good luck this week. Chris and I are on the same page most of the time. He beats me to the punch when “tweeting” things quite a bit, and he say’s the same. Just remember this isn’t easy it takes quite a bit of time to research this stuff. Make your lives easier and buy his article.

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