Let me tell you an embarrassing little story about a past late night affair of mine. It all started with a few drinks (they always do) and a few drunk friends (they always are). After hours of debate on which set of bars to attend, my group of friends and I headed off to the bars we always go to. While out, I get introduced to a friend of a friend and start dancing with her.
I’m not proud of this next statement, but I can’t avoid it. Things got physical and we made out. I’m typically not one for public showing of affection, but I wanted what I thought was the sure thing. I wanted something that was right there in front of me for the taking. Was it good? Debatable. Did I get herpes? Thank God, no! Did she steal my wallet? Helllllllllll no! Although, that did happen to a friend the next weekend.
Now, what the hell does this have to do with fantasy college football? Well, coming into week five there are five matchups that are great. They are easy to spot and people are going to pounce on them like that drunk friend of a friend at the bar. I’m only going to say this once though; do not be me! Here are those five matchups that you need to avoid.
Malcolm Brown against Iowa State. Iowa State is in the bottom 20 against the run when it comes to yardage per game and has given up 20 rushing TDs, but I still don’t like Brown this weekend. Sure he has double digit carries in every game this season, but he’s still a part of a time-share. Johnathan Gray is averaging over ten carries per game in 2014. In his last game, Brown recorded a season high of 78 rushing yards. That’s not a typo folks. 78 yards is his high this season! Not surprisingly he’s averaging 54 yards per game and has two total TDs on the season. Sure, last season I would have been all over this play, but Charlie Strong has done something to this run game to make it ugly.
Alex Collins against Georgia. Ok, so this one is kind of cheating, but there is this perception amongst people in the South that Georgia has a terrible defense. I hear it all the time and honestly I’ve been guilty of saying that they’re bad. Against the run this season though, this is certainly not the case. Georgia has given up just 610 yards in six games this season and only seven rushing TDs. South Carolina has done the best against UGA this season with a 4.19-yards per carry with two TD game against them, but that was in week two. Now, Alex Collins, coming off his worst collegiate game, gets a great price and a bad matchup. Don’t fall for the trap of “Arkansas lives off the run” or how talented he can be.
Connor Cook against Indiana. Cook has been magnificent this season, but really hasn’t played many full games in 2014. In fact, he has three games of less than 15 passing attempts. Against Indiana he has one of the best matchups he’ll face as Indiana has given up 13 TDs to just four INTs on the season. Against five FBS opponents the Hoosiers has allowed at least two TDs through the air every time, while allowing 300+ passing yards three times. North Texas and Iowa are the two teams that haven’t thrown for 300+ passing yards against them, so that’s certainly understandable. So, with Cook getting limited action due to killing the other team, I’m just not a big fan of his Saturday. Even against Purdue, which ended up being a tight ball game, Cook ended with less than 250 yards and under 25 fantasy points.
Cody Kessler against Colorado. Kessler gets to face a Colorado defense with a 15:3 TD to INT ratio, but I’m not digging this matchup. Those numbers are skewed as the game against Cal really messed things up. The Buffs gave up seven passing TDs and over 450 passing yards. That TD to INT ratio doesn’t look so bad now does it? Other than that Cal game, Colorado hasn’t given up more than 280 passing yards in a game and that’s against good passing offenses like Colorado State and Arizona State. There’s not much to like about Kessler other than his completion percentage. The guy has been great in that aspect, but three TDs to just one INT in the last three games. The man doing the damage for the Trojans instead has been Buck Allen. And with that situation looking great for him week in and week out Kessler will remain to be a trap play.
Shaq Washington against SMU. SMU is bad and there’s no way around that. Teams have been slicing them up all year long. At one point they had been outscored 200 to 12. With Cincinnati coming to town, this game should be no different. Gunner Kiel is a true gunslinger with a lot of pure ability. Sure, he’s struggled once or twice, but he won’t against SMU. So, why am I avoiding Shaq against them? Well, he’s only been the leading receiver on the team once in five games. His high in fantasy points this season is just 18.5. I can see a GPP team rostering him, but I really feel like there is another receiver I’d rather target, Chris Moore.