Holy cow, there is a game with a 12.5-run total on this slate. Note: as the day has gone on, the line has moved to 11.5-runs in the Bears/Giants Game. From an offensive perspective, that is going to be tough to overlook, but at least there is another game with a double-digit total for those motivated to fade chalk at all costs. Time to get to work…
Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Aaron Brooks, Kia Tigers, $9,000 DK/$29 FD – Pitching is rough on this slate outside of one rock-solid option and strangely that man is not Aaron Brooks (KIA). While Brooks is the most talented pitcher on the slate, his matchup is by no means perfect; the Heroes rank fourth in runs per game (R/G), third in HR/9 rate and first in BB rate. For Brooks’ sake, the BB rate does not mean a whole lot as his 5.2-percent BB rate in the KBO easily bests all pitchers on the slate. With the Heroes likely unable to rack up baserunners via the free pass, they will not have as easy a time as usual, and they do strike out at the fourth highest rate in the league. Again, finding pitchers without flaws in the overall context is darn near impossible on this slate, so why not just bet on talent?
Jong Hoon Park, SK Wyverns, $8,300 DK/$26 FD – Welcome to the top pitching play of the slate as the man who ranks third in the league in K rate will take on a strikeout-prone Eagles offense. Unlike yesterday, this will be a tough matchup for the Eagles offense as Park has struck out 24.7-percent of the batters he has faced and has fallen victim to the long ball. No team possesses less power than the Eagles (dead last in HR/9 rate) so it is unlikely they are able to take advantage of that weakness of Park. Of course, Park’s other major weakness can be his lack of control that eludes him at times, but the Eagles rank dead last in BB rate as well. All the stars are aligned for a massive outing from Park and he is a borderline lock in all formats on a slate without another true standout pitching play.
Seung Ho Lee, Kiwoom Heroes, $7,000 DK/$25 FD – On the other side of the same game with Brooks, Seung Ho Lee (KIW) is not a terrible play in his own right. Most of the top bats on the Tigers, Preston Tucker (KIA) and Hyung Woo Choi (KIA) for example, hit from the left side of the plate. Hell, even power threat Min Sang Yoo (KIA) hits from the left side, so this team is not exactly perfectly-equipped to hit in the split. Lee is nothing more than average pitcher but his 4.87 FIP and .340 wOBA allowed dating back to 2018 both rank middle of the pack amongst pitchers on the slate. Sure, the Tigers possess power, but most of it comes in the split against right-handed pitching (RHP) and this game features the lowest total (8.5-runs) on the slate. If needing a cheap starting pitcher to make bats work, look no further than Lee.
Honorable Mention: Mike Wright (NCD) and Min Ho Lee (LG) are both talented in their own right but facing difficult opponents (in the same game as one another).
Well, the Bears feature a slate-high 6.5-run total tonight against Se Woong Park (LOT) and it is tough to not love this spot for them. Dating back 161 innings, Park has yielded a slate-worst .180 ISO to opposing hitters and only one pitcher has allowed a higher wOBA than his .379 during that span. On DK especially, the Bears are a bit of a tough team to stack, as Jae Hwan Kim (DOO), Jose Fernandez (DOO), Joo Hwan Choi (DOO), Jae Il Oh (DOO) and Jae Won Oh (DOO) all qualify at either first or second. Every single one of those hitters will own the platoon edge against Park and his 1.73 HR/9 rate allowed this season alone. What else needs to be said here? The Bears are going to be an extremely popular option tonight but for obvious reasons. The way to differentiate from the field is to choose the first and second basemen who hit further down the lineup.
With Tyler Saladino (SAM) back in the lineup, there is significantly more potential to the full stack now compared to a few days ago. Both in the KBO and the MLB, Saladino displayed a complete lack of power in the split against southpaws, but the good news is tonight’s Wiz starter is right-handed. Hyeong Jung So (KTW) ranks dead last in FIP on the Wiz, who are not exactly known for their starting pitching, and he is a pitcher who pounds the strike zone (6.2-percent BB rate). Essentially, he relies on pitching to contact and does so while rarely ever missing bats (10.5-percent K rate), and that leads to him giving up the long ball quite often (1.17 HR/9 rate). Other than Saladino, Ja Wook Koo (SAM), Sang Gyu Lee (SAM), Min Ho Kang (SAM) and Hak Ju Lee (SAM) are the other Lions hitters sporting ISOs of at least .190 and extra-base hit (XBH) percentages of at least 10-percent in the split against RHP.
Apparently, Jeong Choi’s (SK) stay on the injured list did not last long, as he only ended up missing two games prior to being activated on Friday morning. Sans Choi, this team would be impossible to recommend, but they face the likely worst pitcher on the entire slate tonight and have their top bat back in action. To be fair, there is an entirely limited sample size on Jin Wook Kim (HAN) in the KBO, as he has pitched just 6.2 innings over the course of the past two years (and has yet to pitch in 2020). Kim is starting in the place of Chad Bell (HAN), who is battling an elbow issue, so he is about the Eagles’ sixth best option at best at starting pitcher. Considering how the other options have looked, Kim is in trouble, and Choi/Jamie Romak (SK)/Joon Woo Choi (SK) are the only hitters on the Wyverns with a .150-plus ISO versus righties. Target that trio specifically with confidence.
Honorable mention: KT Wiz versus Chae Heung Choi (SAM) whose FIP sits nearly two full runs above his ERA