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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 12th

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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 12th
TheNumbersGuy
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Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:

Pitching

Chang Mo Koo, NC Dinos, $31 FD/$10,400 DK – Any time Koo is on a slate, you can bank on him being our top ranked pitcher regardless of matchup. Koo has posted a 1.48 ERA/2.12 FIP, and 4.8% BB rate this season, which are beyond remarkable feats. He’s also won 8 out of his 11 starts. And none of that is more impressive than Koo’s 30.4% K rate on the season. The next highest K rate in this league belongs to Dan Straily, who’s at 26.4% this season. Koo’s ability to miss bats puts his Fantasy value at a very different level on a start by start basis than any other pitcher in this league and that should be baked into his price tag. Frankly, Koo’s $10,400 DK price tag is at least $1,000 too cheap. To top things off, he’s a slate high -232 favorite in this slate. He’ll be very popular but you’re playing him in all formats regardless. 

Seung Won Moon, SK Wyverns, $27 FD/$8,400 DK – Moon has the requisite upside to match a good but not great Chang Mo Koo outing. Moon’s K rate has seen an uptick this season as it’s been at 23.2% this season compared to 16.9% last season and 18.6% in 2018. Moon’s run prevention has been better as well, posting a 3.13 ERA/3.36 FIP this season (3.88 ERA/4.82 FIP last season). On top of this, Moon’s matchup against the Hanwha Eagles is as good as it gets as the latter is averaging a league worst 3.5 runs per game this season. Moon’s team, the SK Wyverns, have performed as the second worst team in the league this season and that’s the only reason why he’s only a -142 favorite today. Pursue him aggressively across all formats. 

The third best pitcher in this slate is likely Shi Hwan Jang (SK) and that’s mostly tied to his ability to miss bats (56 Ks in 49 IP this season). Jang’s wildness (27 BBs in 49 IP) and unsurprising run prevention woes (5.07 ERA) is what holds him back but we’re hoping that a strong matchup (SK Wyverns – averaging just 3.7 runs per game) can help mitigate some of these risks. We love Jang’s $7,100 price tag on DK. 

David Buchanan (SAM) and Young Ha Lee (DOO) are worth a shot in large field GPPs. The matchup (KT Wiz) is a concern for Buchanan but after a disaster start against Hanwha, he turned it around quickly (2 earned runs, 10 Ks over the last 15 IP). His production has been a bit spotty but that’s typically a pretty significant sign that a player won’t draw even middling ownership in tournaments. Lee’s production has been shakier than Buchanan’s and his team total against (5.5) could be an issue. IF he manages to keep the run prevention to a minimum and grab a win, he will provide some value given the cheap price tag ($6,400).

Stacks

NC Dinos

The Dinos’ implied team total is about to reach 6 runs as they take on one of the worst pitchers in this slate, Yun Sik Kim. There’s no guarantee that Kim will even last more than a handful of innings as he’s been used mostly out of the bullpen this season. Sung Bum Na (NCD), Aaron Altherr (NCD), Eui Ji Yang (NCD), Jin Sung Kang (NCD) and Hee Dong Kwon (NCD) (underpriced on both sites; $9 on FD and $3,200 on DK) are the primary names you want to target in this eventful offense that leads the league in home runs (84) and are middle of the pack in stolen bases (38). 

Doosan Bears

The Bears lead the slate in implied total (6.5) as they take on Won Sam Jang. The latter has struck out 12.3% of batters and has allowed a 1.33 HR/9 in 66 IP (since 2018). Chang is 37 years old and he’s clearly the worst starting pitcher in this slate. Jose Fernandez (DOO), Jae Hwan Kim (DOO), Jae Il Oh (DOO) and Joo Hwan Choi (DOO) are the primary targets from this offense. Se Hyuk Park (DOO) has a decent price tag for a catcher but his level of production makes him a secondary target. 

The third best stack in this slate is in theory a close battle between the Kiwoom Heroes and the Samsung Lions. Samsung has the higher implied team total (6) but Kiwoom (implied total of 5.5 runs) is simply better offensively. They also have the higher upside plays like ByungHo Park (KIW) (16 home runs), Ha Seong Kim (KIW) (11 home runs, 9 stolen bases), Keon Chang Seo (KIW) (5 home runs, 14 stolen bases) and Jung Ho Lee (KIW) (9 home runs, 3 stolen bases). As a result, we’re ranking Kiwoom ahead of Samsung despite the difference in implied total.

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