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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 14th

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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 14th
TheNumbersGuy
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Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:

Pitching

Dan Straily, Lotte Giants, $23 FD/$10,100 DK – Straily is clearly the top pitcher on the board in this slate. Straily’s 2.29 ERA/3.03 FIP and being a -156 favorite are all great but the biggest reason we play him in the KBO is because of his strikeouts. Through 74 IP at the KBO, Straily has posted a 26.2% K rate – or if you’re going by Ks per 9, that reads as 9.40. The $23 price tag for Straily on FD is absurdly low and as a result he represents the best pitching value on that site. The one concern for Straily in this slate and it’s a big one is weather, as it looks like the Lotte/LG game will have a 30-40% chance of rain. IF this game plays, you want to target Straily aggressively on both sites. 

Odrisamer Despaigne, KT Wiz, $26 FD/$8,100 DK Despaigne’s performance at the KBO has been fine as he’s posted a 4.29 ERA/4.27 FIP and an 18.2% K rate. He’s more attractive of a DFS target today because the matchup against Hanwha is as good as it gets in this league, as they’re averaging 3.5 runs per game. It looks like the weather should cooperate for Despaigne but it’s not a guarantee. If Straily and Despaigne avoid weather issues, they should easily be the highest owned pitchers in this slate. 

The third best pitcher in this slate will very likely be one of David Buchanan (SAM) or Young Ha Lee (DOO). Buchanan’s K rate (16.2%) hasn’t been great but it’s better than Lee’s (14.2%) and the latter is mostly dependent on solid run prevention and win probability. Thankfully, both of those should be in his favor today, specifically his win probability (62.4% as a -190 favorite). Unfortunately for Buchanan, he has the most severe weather risk of any pitcher in this slate as there’s at least a 40% chance of rain in the KIA/SAM game.

Stacks

Doosan Bears

The Bears own a slate high implied total that has been set at 6 runs as they take on Geon Wook Lee. Lee has done a good job at keeping the ball in the park as he’s only allowed a 0.42 HR/9 through 42.7 IP. On the other hand, he’s also been ridiculously lucky from a run prevention standpoint, as he’s posted a 2.95 ERA but a 4.39 FIP. If he can’t get his 12.9% BB rate under control, he’s going to get in a lot of trouble more times than not. He’s also a RHP, which means that Jose Fernandez (DOO), Jae Hwan Kim (DOO) and Jae Il Oh (DOO) will carry the platoon edge in this matchup. Kyoung Min Hur (DOO) is a RHB but he’s been a very productive third baseman in this lineup and is deserving of being a part of Bears’ stacks. 

Kiwoom Herores

The Heroes have an implied total that’s approaching 6 runs and they’ll have to battle the NC Dinos for the #2 overall rank in our stack rankings. We think their edge here is a matchup against Jae Hak Lee, who’s been pretty terrible this season. Lee has posted a 5.59 ERA this season and his Ks have been underwhelming again (37 Ks in 56 IP). ByungHo Park (KIW), Ha Seong Kim (KIW), Jung Ho Lee (KIW) and Keon Chang Seo (KIW) are the primary targets in this offense, with Kim (13 home runs, 9 stolen bases) being the most desirable target due to his incredible event upside. 

NC Dinos

Opposing pitcher Jake Brigham has good long term data but this season hasn’t been kind to him as he’s posted a 5.00 ERA and he’s walked multiple batters in 3 of his first 4 starts. Brigham can miss bats (16 Ks in 18 IP) but if there’s something wrong with him, there’s no better matchup to exploit that than with the Dinos. Even with Sung Bum Na hitting the injured list, the Dinos will trot out a 3-4-5 that consists of Suk Min Park (NCD), Aaron Altherr (NCD) and Eui Ji Yang (NCD). Altherr himself is having an absurd season at the KBO, as he’s hit 16 home runs and stolen 11 bases. Jin Sung Kang (NCD) has slowed down a bit of late but he’s been another source of power (9 home runs, 15 doubles) for this offense. 

Honorable mention: Samsung Lions (5.5 implied team total and should be much lower owned than the teams above because their offense is far inferior from a power perspective) and KT Wiz (69 home runs is the second most in the league and they have the best hitter in the league thus far, Mel Rojas Jr.)

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