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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 17th

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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 17th
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Four of the five games on the slate opened with 10.5-run totals and yet this slate still should be chalkier than yesterday (especially in the hitting department). Let’s dig in…

Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:


Chan Gyu Lim, LG Twins, $8,200 DK/$25 FD – Even with two pitchers priced above $9,000 on this slate on DK, there is no need to spend that much at SP1 when a guy like Chan Gyu Lim (LG) finds himself in the nuts matchup. Not only do the Eagles rank dead last in runs per game (R/G) but they also hit the fewest homers per nine innings and strike out at the second highest rate in the league. Over the course of his past two starts, Lim has allowed a total of eight earned runs (ERs) but he has done so with a 21:11 GB/FB ratio. Essentially, Lim has fallen victim to some bad BABIP luck, and that is unlikely to be the case tonight versus the league’s worst offense. In total, Lim has struck out 22.4-percent of the batters he has faced and walked just 5.9-percent this year, and the long ball has really plagued him. Facing a lineup without power, Lim should get back to his dominant ways from earlier in the year, and he is a top target in all formats.

Chae Heung Choi, Samsung Lions, $7,800 DK/$26 FD – The other top pitching target tonight is Chae Heung Choi (SAM) against a Giants offense that has struggled mightily in the split. Okay, so Dong Hee Han (LOT) has hit .464 in the split with three homers, but besides him, guys like Dixon Machado (LOT) and Jun Woo Jeon (LOT) have hit under .200 in the split. Mostly due to their struggles in the split, the Giants rank eighth in R/G and ninth in HR/9 rate. Sure, they are a tough team to strike out, but they are not a team likely to put up much of a fight versus a southpaw. To be fair, Choi has not pitched great this year, owning a FIP over 5.00 (5.05) and BB rate of 10.3-percent. The Giants walk at the fourth highest rate in the league so control is certainly a concern in this spot. However, Choi displayed the sort of upside that remains possible tonight in his first outing versus the Giants, shutting them down for six baserunners and zero earned runs (ERs) in seven innings. Spending down for Choi also allows fantasy players to load their lineups with expensive bats and that is an enticing proposition on a slate with four games featuring at least 10.5-run totals.

Seung Ho Lee, Kiwoom Heroes, $7,000 DK/$24 FD – How often is a pitcher priced this cheaply on both sites listed as a massive -245 favorite? The Heroes are such ridiculous favorites to win tonight’s game that Lee will simply need to not implode to provide enough value to warrant rostering him. Recently, the Wyverns have passed the Eagles in K rate, meaning no team strikes out at a higher rate. Jamie Romak (SK) and Jeong Choi (SK) are a scary duo but there are not many other threats in the lineup (especially against left-handed pitching (LHP)). Other best bats in the lineup Dong Min Han (SK) and Ji Hoon Choi (SK) are both left-handed and six players in the lineup with at least 50 plate appearances have struck out at a 25.0-plus percent rate. Even if Lee gives a few runs along the way, the strikeout potential could propel him to respectability, so feel free to take this shot (even in cash games).

Honorable mention: Aaron Brooks (KIA) is both the most talented and the most expensive pitcher across both sites in a tough matchup versus the team that strikes out at the lowest rate in the league. Of course, Brooks possesses the ability to dominate any team in this league, so he is still in play in tournaments despite not making sense on a per-dollar basis in cash games.


Kiwoom Heroes

Oh boy is this a mismatch here as the loaded Heroes lineup will take on Joo Han Kim (SK) who has walked more batters than he has struck out since the start of 2018. This year alone, Kim has walked 10.1-percent of the batters he has faced compared to a 5.1-percent K rate. That equates to a 0.50 K/BB ratio and -5.1 K/BB percentage. Amongst all pitchers that have thrown 20-plus innings this year, Kim’s 6.41 FIP ranks 11th worst in the league and dead last on the Wyverns specifically. Not being able to miss bats puts the entire top of the Heroes lineup on red-alert to go deep and/or do serious work against him. Keon Chang Seo (KIW) is a former MVP, Ha Seong Kim (KIW) leads all shortstops in fantasy points per game, Jung Hoo Lee (KIW) has turned into the top contact hitter in the league (and has developed power to go along with it) and ByungHo Park (KIW) has hit 50-plus homers before. Watch out because this entire stack could go absolutely bonkers versus a pitcher with over a 6.00 FIP and .377 wOBA allowed dating back a few seasons.

Samsung Lions

Jun Won Seo (LOT) is a certified “giver of dongs” as evident by the fact that only two qualified pitchers have allowed a higher HR/9 rate to opponents this season. At just 19-years old, it is not wonder it has taken him time to adjust to this league, and he is in trouble again tonight versus a near fully-healthy Lions team (especially if Tyler Saladino (SAM) ends up being good to go on Friday). Ja Wook Koo (SAM) will own the platoon edge and he has both stolen double-digit bases and hit double-digit homers in each of his first five KBO seasons. In 38 games this year, Koo is slashing .340/.389/.551 overall including a .336 AVG and 11.1-percent extra base hit (XBH) rate against right-handed pitching (RHP) alone. Hae Min Park (SAM) has moved up the Lions lineup due to his recent strong performance and the inclusion of Saladino in the lineup would put the icing on the cake for the potential of the stack. The 1-6 hitters are all in play with Koo being the highest-priority bat and Park constituting the top value.

LG Twins

Last, but surely not least, the Twins find themselves matched up against a pitcher with a 7.77 FIP, .391 wOBA and 1.64 HR/9 rate allowed in his 11.0 innings as KBO pitcher. Jin Wook Kim (HAN) has only appeared in one game this season and lasted 81-pitches while giving up two solo homers and seven total baserunners in 4.1 IP against the Wyverns. At just 20-years old, Kim is not fully developed, but has been blasted in each of his two career starts at this level. If the Eagles were a better team, Kim would likely still be in the Futures League, but half the team was demoted earlier in the year just so the team could see what they have in their younger players…because why not? Beyond Kim, the bullpen ranks in the bottom three of ERA (5.66), so even if Kim’s day is cut short, the matchups should be favorable for the Twins (who scored 10 runs last night) throughout. Hyun Soo Kim (LG) is noticeably underpriced on DK ($4,600) and the top two hitters in the lineup each cost $3,500 or less. If going expensive with other bats or at SP1, the Twins are the match made in heaven for roster construction purposes.

Honorable mention: Kia Tigers are an offense whose best two hitters hit from the left side of the plate but Hui Kwan Yu (DOO) simply does not miss bats (8.8-percent K rate this year) and is always susceptible to a double-digit baserunner sort of start (1.63 WHIP).

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