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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 18th

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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for July 18th
TheNumbersGuy
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Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:

Pitching

Chang Mo Koo, NC Dinos, $28 FD/$10,400 DK – Koo has been our top ranked pitcher every single slate he’s been available for this season. Koo leads the league in ERA (1.48) and most importantly, K rate (30.4%). He’s also cut his walk rate nearly in half (9.1% last season; 4.8% this season). The matchup against the KT Wiz is a tough one as they’re averaging 5.8 runs per game this season and Koo had his worst outing (5 runs allowed, 4 earned runs and just 4 Ks in 4 IP) of the season against this offense a few starts ago. In a previous start against this offense, Koo struck out 10 batters and allowed 0 runs. Today, Koo is a ridiculous -430 favorite (76% win probability) in this matchup. Even if you think this matchup is too tough for Koo, it’s not going to be enough to take him down from the number 1 spot in our rankings. He’s simply that dominant of a pitcher and on FD he’s not priced as the most expensive pitcher on the board. Pursue him across all formats on both sites. 

The next best pitchers are Jong Hoon Park (SK), Shi Hwan Jang (HAN) and Woo Chan Cha (LG). Two of these pitchers are likely going to end up ranking number 2 and number 3 in our rankings but the order is difficult to pin down. Cha has performed as the worst pitcher of the bunch but he has a combination of best matchup (Hanwha Eagles; averaging a league worst 3.49 runs per game) and a high win probability (66%) as a -230 favorite (second highest in this slate). His best price tag can be found on FD ($23) but we think he’s in a playable range on DK ($8,500) as well. 

Jang misses the most bats (21.2% K rate over the last 270.7 IP) but he’ll have a matchup against a lefty-heavy lineup and his win probability is in shambles as a member of the Hanwha Eagles. His best price tag can be found on DK ($7,600). 

Park has the toughest matchup of the bunch (Kiwoom Heroes; averaging 5.6 runs per game and are tied for the league lead in home runs) but he’s a solid pitcher (18.7% K rate, 4.24 ERA over the last 367.3 IP).

Stacks

NC Dinos

The Dinos are in a clear upside spot as opposing pitcher Byung Wook Jo has posted a miserable 7.69% K rate and 7.69 BB rate in just 21.7 IP. It’s a very small sample for Jo but his best case scenario as a pitcher with this profile is being an extreme contact pitcher that induces soft ground balls. If that’s his best case scenario, we’re going to want to pick on him consistently given his inability to miss bats. And it doesn’t get any better than doing it with this Dinos offense as they’ve performed as the league’s best this season. While they lead the league in runs, we’re more excited about the fact that they lead the league in home runs (87) and it’s not particularly close. This offense just saw the return of one of their best hitters, Sung Bum Na (NCD), yesterday. Na hits in the middle of a deep lineup that features other primary targets like Aaron Altherr (NCD) and Eui Ji Yang (NCD). Hee Dong Kwon (NCD) hits right behind Altherr and remains particularly cheap on DraftKings ($3,100). The Dinos should be plenty popular today and for good reason. 

Doosan Bears

If you’re looking for a low owned pivot off the Dinos, you won’t find it with the Bears. The Bears lead the slate in implied total (6.5) and have a matchup against arguably the worst starting pitcher in this slate, Ki Hoon Kim. Kim has walked more batters (16.5% BB rate) than he’s struck out (15.3% K rate) in his short career at the KBO (89.7 IP). Kim isn’t fully stretched out, so there’s a good chance that this game turns into a bullpen game rather quickly. Fire up Jose Fernandez (DOO), Jae Hwan Kim (DOO), Jae Il Oh (DOO) and Kyoung Min Hur (DOO) with confidence in this one. Their leadoff hitter, Kung Woo Park (DOO), is a bit pricey relative to his upside but he’s in play as well as he’ll have a real chance at generating 5 plate appearances in this one. 

The Samsung Lions and the KIA Tigers are the other teams in this slate with implied team totals in the 6s. The Lions lead the league in stolen bases but their power (58 home runs) has been limited this season. The Tigers carry a bit more power upside (66 home runs) but don’t run (18 stolen bases is by far the league’s lowest mark). Preston Tucker (KIA) is the best Fantasy option of the two teams, with teammate Hyung Woo Choi (KIA) and the Lions’ Ja Wook Koo (SAM) the second best options.

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