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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 24th

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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 24th
TheNumbersGuy
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Every single game in this slate has weather issues and they’re unlikely to go away fully. We’ll take a look closer to look and keep everyone update in our slack channel, but keep in mind that early on it looks like there will be plenty of PPD risk today.

Vegas Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:

Pitching

Dan Straily, Lotte Giants, $28 FD/$9,200 DK – Straily is the deserving top pitching play in this slate. Straily now has nine starts to his name at the KBO, and he’s posted a gaudy 28.4% K rate. For comparison sake, the next highest K rate in this slate belongs to Shi Hwan Jang (20.8% K rate over the last 194 IP). On top of the strikeouts, Straily’s run prevention has been elite as well, posting a 2.10 ERA/2.74 FIP. The KIA Tigers represent an average matchup (averaging five runs per game through 42 games this season) for Straily, who’s easily been one  of the better pitchers at the KBO this season. Pay up for him across all formats. 

The conversation for second and third best pitchers in this slate is a bit more congested. Mike Wright (NCD) probably deserves to be included in the top three, especially considering his Vegas odds (60.2% implied odds to win is the second highest in this slate). However, our confidence in Wright is starting to wane a bit. For starters, his ERA (3.80) is simply inflated and we think he’s closer to his FIP (4.85) considering that his K rate is sitting at 19.5%. The matchup against the KT Wiz has some downside to it as well as they’ve performed better than league average in runs per game and home runs. 

Tyler Wilson (LG) profiles very similarly to Mike Wright. We have a bigger sample for Wilson (402.3 IP),  who’s posted a 19.4% K rate and a 3.13 ERA/3.48 FIP. All things considered, Wilson is likely a slightly better pitcher than Wright but he’s $1,000 than the latter on DK and is just $24  on FD. The matchup against the Kiwoom Heroes isn’t risk-free but Wilson deserves to be considered regardless. 

The pitchers above are clearly better than rookie Yoon Dong Heo (SAM). However, you could argue that Heo is one of the better values on the board on DK where he’s the cheapest ($5,800) pitcher on the board. Heo’s K upside is very questionable – after all, he’s only struck out 5% of batters through three starts. Heo doesn’t profile to be a good pitcher or even an average pitcher at the KBO but all we care about is today’s context. And that’s where he ends up winning out,  as the Lions take on the Hanwha Eagles, a team that’s averaging a league worst 3.3 runs per game this season. As a result, Heo has the highest implied odds to win (61.8%) in this slate. At his DK price tag, all you need is for him to end up posting positive Fantasy points. With that said, he shouldn’t be considered on FD where he’s priced as the most expensive pitcher on the board. 

Weather does look awful for this slate, with every game carrying some level of precipitation risk. Straily and Heo are in the least risky games from a weather perspective but there are no guarantees tonight as it looks like each game will have at least a 25% chance of rain. 

Honorable Mention: Shi Hwan Jang (HAN)

Stacks

NC Dinos

The Dinos are averaging 6.6 runs per game this season and they represent our top ranked stack in this slate. Their implied team total today has been set at six runs as they take on Min Soo Kim. Kim doesn’t miss bats (16% K rate) and has allowed the highest ISO (.147) of all the pitchers in action today. The middle of this lineup is downright scary, with Sung Bum Na (NCD) (12 home runs) leading the way. Eui Ji Yang (NCD), who’s regarded as the league’s best catcher, hits cleanup in this lineup. Jin Sung Kang (NCD) is still hitting for over .400 and he’s generated 9 home runs and 4 stolen bases. Kang’s price tag is on the rise but if he’s anywhere as productive as he’s been moving forward, he’s still not priced correctly. Aaron Altherr (NCD) hits towards the bottom of this lineup and he’s still been plenty productive (9 home runs, 7 stolen bases). We prefer Kang over Altherr outright given that the latter is more expensive but Altherr’s upside makes him a strong tournament target. 

Doosan Bears

For as much chatter as the Dinos have generated this season, and all of it is deserved, we think the Bears could be a bit undervalued given the way they’ve performed offensively. They’ve averaged 6.2 runs per game, which isn’t very different than the Dinos’ 6.6  runs per game. The  challenge from a Fantasy perspective is that the Bears don’t hit for as much power as the Dinos and they don’t steal as many bases either. On the season, the Bears have hit 43 home runs stolen 17 bases, which pale in comparison to the Dinos’ 60 home runs and 17 stolen bases. For today, the Bears have the same implied total (6) as the Dinos. An injury to Jae Il Oh has opened up a bigger window of opportunity for Joo Hwan Choi (DOO) and the latter has delivered with 8 home runs and 13 doubles thus far this season. There’s no reason for Choi to be priced at  $2,300 on DK – he should be considered one of the better value targets regardless of position in this slate. Jose Fernandez (DOO) and Jae Hwan Kim (DOO) are the top bats in this offense but they’ve been priced as such. All things considered, we view the Bears as easily the second best stack in this slate. 

LG Twins

The Twins have one of the better pitching matchups in this slate, as they take on Seung Ho Lee. Lee has only struck out 15.7% of batters over the last 208.7 IP. This LHP is in trouble, particularly when facing Roberto Ramos (LG),  who’s performed as one of the league’s best hitters thus far. Ramos has generated 13 home runs and a 1.130 OPS in his first stint at the KBO. He has slowed down some after an ankle injury took him out for a few games, but if the early numbers are any indication, he’s bound to rebound in a big way soon. The silver lining for Lee is that this Twins’ lineup is very left-handed, but his inability to miss bats should get him in trouble regardless of handedness. Hyun Soo Kim (LG) is another talented LHB that should be targeted despite the L/L matchup. Perhaps the fact that this Twins’ lineup features so many LHBs dilutes their ownership today. If that’s the case, they’ll end up having plenty of value in GPPs. 

Honorable mention: Lotte Giants (have a strong case for being considered as the third best stack in this slate over the LG Twins; opposing pitcher Min Woo Lee is a mediocre righty)

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