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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 5th

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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for June 5th
TheNumbersGuy
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Vegas Odds and probables courtesy of Pinnacle:

Pitching

Mike Wright, NC Dinos, $27 FD/$9,100 DK – This is a challenging pitching slate. Wright, who’s gotten a bit lucky on the run prevention side of things, posting a 3.21 ERA/4.81 FIP, is the top play at the position. Ultimately, Wright has the best K rate (20.5%) of any starting pitcher in this slate, he owns by far the highest implied odds to win (67.7%) as a massive -245 favorite and has the best matchup for run prevention (Hanwha is averaging less than four runs per game this season). He’s likely overpriced for his talent level across the board but in this slate you’re not going to be able to be that picky. Consider Wright across all formats. 

After Wright, things get dicey and rather quickly at the position. Won Tae Choi (Kiwoom Heroes; $24 FD/$8,900 DK) is probably the second best pitcher in this slate as he’s posted a 3.64 ERA/3.23 FIP since 2018. Unfortunately for Choi, his K rate (16.6%) isn’t all that exciting. He’s likely your best bet for positive Fantasy points after Wright, though. 

Min Woo Lee (KIA Tigers; $26 FD/$7,200 DK) has impressed this season, particularly of late, as he’s coming off a 8 K, 7 innings pitched performance while allowing just one earned run. Lee has posted a 3.23 ERA through five starts. From a talent perspective, he’s likely one of the better pitchers in this slate but the matchup against Doosan is a very difficult one, particularly for a righty pitcher. We wouldn’t play him much if at all on FD given his price tag, but on DK he’s likely playable across all formats despite the difficult matchup. 

Chan Gyu Lim (LG Twins; $24 FD/$7,200 DK) has a difficult matchup against a red hot Kiwoom Heroes offense. However, Lim owns one of the higher K rates (18.7%) in this slate and he’s been quite unlucky on the run prevention side (5.38 ERA/4.71 FIP over the last 257 innings pitched). Lim should be considered in tournaments. Shi Hwan Jang (Hanwha Eagles; $24 FD/$6,900 DK) is completely out of play on FD but can be considered in MME. Jang has averaged well over a strikeout per inning this season (31 Ks in 24 innings pitched) but his walk rate is out of control (18 walks) as well and his run prevention has been awful. The matchup against the NC Dinos is about as tough as it gets, too, but his ability to miss bats alone makes  him a worthy dart throw.

Stacks

KT Wiz

The Wiz sit comfortably ahead of the pack in our stack rankings today. For starters, they own a hefty 6.5 implied total, which is at least half a run higher than the next highest implied total in this slate. Part of the huge implied total is the opposing starting pitcher, Jun Won Seo, who’s not a good pitcher. He doesn’t miss bats (12.7% K rate over the last 124 innings pitched), which has led to an ugly 5.20 ERA/5.02 FIP. Mel Rojas Jr. (KTW) was the top hitter in our rankings a couple of days ago, and he responded with a home run and a 24 DraftKings points outing. Rojas Jr. should be viewed as the top hitter in this slate. For the season, Rojas Jr. has posted a 1.204 OPS and 8 home runs. Outside of Rojas Jr. and Jae Gyun Hwang (KTW), this offense is very cheap on the whole. Woo Jun Sim (KTW), their leadoff hitter, will cost you $3,300 on DK at the  shortstop position. Yong Ho Jo (KTW) has been hitting third of late with Baek Ho Kang going down with an injury and he’s just $2,900 on DK. He’s cheap on FD ($8) as well. Expect the KT Wiz to be quite popular tonight. 

KIA Tigers

The Tigers’ offense is in an optimal spot today. Opposing pitcher Young Ha Lee doesn’t miss bats, as he’s posted a 14.2% K rate since 2018. This season, Lee has generated more walks (19) than strikeouts (17) in 28 innings pitched. Preston Tucker (KIA), who’s hit 8 home runs thus far and has homered in back to back games coming into this one, falls just short of Mel Rojas Jr. for top outright hitter in this slate. Tucker is by far the biggest power threat in this offense, but Hyung Woo Choi (KIA) and Ho Ryung Kim (KIA) should be viewed as primary targets in this  stack as well. Kim has been leading off in his return to the KBO and he’s delivered right off the bat, hitting 2 home runs and a triple through three starts. Kim is minimum priced on FD and remains priced down considerably on DK ($3,200). Take advantage of this while you can. Seung Taek Han (KIA) has performed admirably at catcher for the Tigers, posting a .947 OPS and 4 home runs through 54 ABs this season. Han is priced efficiently but deserves to be considered as part of Tigers’ stacks as well. 

NC Dinos

It’s no surprise to see the NC Dinos being ranked inside our top three today as they’ve performed as the best team/offense in the KBO this season. The Dinos have a matchup against Shi Hwan Jang, who’s been able to miss plenty of bats this season but his huge walk rate (19 walks in 28 innings pitched ) and run prevention (6.93 ERA) are huge concerns. We think Jang deserves a shot in MME given his ability to miss bats, but that shouldn’t stop you from pursuing the Dinos’ deep offense. Sung Bum Na (NCD) is up to 8 home runs this season, Jin Sung Kang (NCD) is still affordable on DK ($3,800) relative to what he’s done this season (1.242 OPS) and Aaron Altherr (NCD) is going to be a real power threat regardless of where he ends up in the lineup. The Dinos also have the best hitting catcher in the league, Eui Ji Yang (NCD)

Honorable mention: Kiwoom Heroes (ByungHo Park has been priced below $5,000 on DK), SK Wyverns

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