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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for May 28th

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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for May 28th
TheNumbersGuy
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Vegas Odds and probables courtesy of Pinnacle:

Pitching

Casey Kelly, LG Twins, $23 FD/$7,400 DK – Kelly hasn’t displayed significant strikeout upside at the KBO, posting K rates of 16.9% last season and 15.9% thus far through three starts this season. He’s still one of the most talented pitchers on this slate. This season, Kelly has been rather unlucky, as the gap in  ERA (5.79) and FIP (2.82)  shows. He’s a -166 favorite today in a game that features the lowest total (7.5) in this slate. It’s a rather boring play but given his price tags,  Kelly looks like one of the better values at the position today and we view him as the top outright play though not by much. 

Hyun Jong Yang, KIA Tigers, $29 FD/$9,600 DK – Yang carries more strikeout upside than Kelly does, as he’s posted anywhere from 19-20% over the last three full seasons. Yang is also coming off his best run prevention season, posting a 2.29 ERA/2.59 FIP. There’s likely some regression coming for Yang on the run prevention side of things as he’s been closer to a 3-4  ERA pitcher throughout his career. Additionally, the matchup against the KT Wiz isn’t a cake walk as the latter has been clicking on all cylinders offensively. He’s a -142 favorite though and the strikeout upside puts him in contention for the top outright pitching play in this slate. The price tags are  beyond efficient, though. 

Warwick Saupold, Hanwha Eagles, $26 FD/$9,000 DK – Saupold is currently overpriced, and that’s baking in his incredible run prevention. Or rather you could argue he’s ran incredibly good, posting a 2.25 ERA/3.86 FIP through four starts this season. He’s closer to his FIP than his current ERA as far as talent level is concerned. Thankfully, even if he regresses, which he very likely will, an ERA in the 3s is still great. The biggest negative for Saupold is lack of strikeout upside. This season, Saupold has posted an ugly 13.8% K rate. We’d expect some sort of bounce back as last season he generated a 16.7%  K rate, but even then that’s not a meaningful amount by any means. He’s still a solid play and one that likely would have a median projection in the double digits. It might make sense to take a stab at a weaker pitcher like Young Gyu Kim (NC Dinos, $24 FD/$6,300 DK) because he’s one of the cheapest pitchers available on DK. If we were to run projections, Kim’s wouldn’t be that far off from Saupold’s given that the former also has higher implied odds to win and he’s significantly cheaper on DK. 

Stacks

Doosan Bears

Unsurprisingly, the Bears represent the top stack in this slate. They have a run total that’s approaching seven runs and that’s the highest available team total today. The SK Wyverns are going to turn to Geon Wook Lee and their bullpen to finish this series and that’s not a recipe for success against one of the best offenses in the league. Jose Fernandez (DOO) is hitting near .500 for the season while Jae Hwan Kim (DOO) is our favorite power hitter from this team. Kim has hit four home runs and five doubles this season and he has multiple 30 home run seasons under his belt. Jae Won Oh (DOO) has been hitting fifth of late and he’s minimum priced on DK. Their primary catcher, Se Hyuk Park (DOO), has an affordable DK price tag ($3,000) as well. They’ll be popular once again and maybe it makes some sense to fade in SE/3 max tournaments given the variance of the sport, but the Bears are deserving of their number one spot in our stack rankings today. 

NC Dinos

The Dinos are in an optimal spot, taking on Hyun Dae Jung, a pitcher with a career 6.63 ERA. Jung hasn’t pitched since 2017 and the last time we sae him, he posted a 7.06 ERA. It’s safe to say that the Kiwoom Heroes are in trouble in this matchup against the Dinos’ league leading offense. Sung Bum Na (NCD) and Eui Ji Yang (NCD) are the primary hitters from this offense that you want to target, but don’t sleep on the value that Min Woo Park (NCD) brings to the table as a leadoff hitter. Aaron Altherr (NCD) is overpriced relative to where he’s been hitting in the lineup but his power upside alone makes him a sharp upside play in GPPs. 

Lotte Giants 

These aren’t the household names that you’re used to clicking, but the Giants have an implied total of six runs today and represent a top three stack in this slate. Jun Woo Jeon (LOT), Dae Ho Lee (LOT), Ah Seop Son (LOT), Byung Hun Min (LOT) and Chi Hong An (LOT) (five stolen bases this season) are the primary targets of this offense. Former MLBer Dixon Machado (LOT) got off to a hot start with his new club, hitting four home runs, but he’s been hitting at the bottom of the lineup. We view him as a secondary target given the lineup spot and big price tag.


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