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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for May 30th

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Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) Pitching Analysis and Stacks for May 30th
TheNumbersGuy
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DK has decided to not include the 1:00 AM ET game between the LG Twins and Kia Tigers. As a result, their slate has been cut down to four games and will lock at 4:00 AM ET. FD’s main slate has included that game, which means their main slate will lock at 1:00 AM ET.

Vegas Odds and probables courtesy of Pinnacle:

Pitching

Mike Wright, NC Dinos, 27 FD/$8,900 DK – Wright is the deserving top pitching play in this slate. For starters, Wright owns the highest implied odds to win (65%) as a -210 favorite today and he carries the lowest implied run total against (4). Additionally, and most importantly, Wright carries the biggest K rate (21.7%) of any pitcher in this slate albeit in a very small sample (four starts). The Samsung Lions have been a neutral-ish matchup thus far for opposing pitchers, averaging the sixth highest runs per game (5.36). All things considered, it looks like the Lions will be a middle of the pack team in the KBO this season. That’s not stopping us from going after Wright heavily today, especially when you consider that there are a lot of suspect pitchers in this slate. 

Won Tae Choi, $25 FD/$9,100 DK – Things get significantly murkier at pitcher once you get past Mike Wright. Choi has been a solid pitcher at the KBO, posting a 3.66 ERA over the last 312.7 innings pitched. Unfortunately, like most Korean pitchers, Choi’s strikeout upside is very limited, as he’s generated a 16.5% K rate during that time. As a result, he comes away as overpriced around the industry despite being a -138 favorite . All things considered, Choi is still the second best pitcher in this slate. 

Young Ha Lee, $23 FD/N/A DK – Lee’s strikeout profile is very weak (14.7% K rate since 2018) but he’s the second highest favorite (-166) in this slate. We view him as the third best available SP on both sites though he’ll have lots of competition given his inability to strike batters out. You could make the argument that the third best SP in this slate is William Cuevas, KT Wiz, $25 FD/$7,700 DK. Cuevas’ K rate (18%) is solid relative to the rest of the league and that’s what keeps him in the conversation as a playable option in DFS. The same goes for Shi Hwan Yang, Hanwha Eagles, $24 FD/$6,700 DK. Yang has generated a 20.7% K rate over the last 182 innings pitched, which is the second highest K rate in this slate. Cuevas and Yang will have ugly implied run totals against but the hope is that they can still generate decent Fantasy performances IF their K rates in these matchups exceed 20%.

Stacks

NC Dinos

The Dinos are averaging a league high 6.91 runs per game this season. Runs per game aside, the Dinos seem to be in a league of their own. Sung Bum Na (NCD) has been clicking on all cylinders to start the season, hitting seven home runs and generating a 1.049 OPS in 96 PAs. Eui Ji Yang (NCD) is finally starting to get it going at the plate, hitting a home run in two out of the last three games. Yang is still regarded as the league’s best hitting catcher. The Dinos are also using backup catcher Jin Sung Kang (NCD) as a first baseman. Kang has posted an absurd 1.349 OPS this season and he’s just $3,300 on DK. The challenge is that Kang doesn’t have 1B eligibility, but if you couldn’t pay up for Yang’s hefty price tag, Kang is available at a bargain of a price. This lineup is so deep that former MLBer Aaron Altherr (NCD) has been hitting towards the bottom of the lineup. Given the clear decrease in quality of pitching in this league, Altherr should have very little resistance in his path towards hitting 20+ home runs. We view the Dinos as the unquestioned top stack in this slate.

Doosan Bears

While the Bears’ offense has been faltering of late, they’re averaging the second most runs per game (6.78) this season. They’re in an upside position today as they take on RHP Jun Won Seo, who’s generated a 13% K rate and a 5.38 ERA over the last 118.7 innings pitched. This righty is simply outmatched against a left-handed heavy lineup that features arguably the best hitter in the KBO, Jose Fernandez (KBO) and one of the best power hitters in the league, Jae Hwan Kim (DOO). Kim has struggled to do much at the plate of late and he’s expensive ($5,600 on DK). More help is coming for this offense as well, as Jae Il Oh (DOO) has been activated from the injured list. Oh wasn’t in the lineup yesterday when he was activated but he should be back today. Oh’s DK price tag ($3,800) makes him arguably the best value in a Bears’ uniform.. Our hope is that the Bears’ weak output of late results in low ownership today. 

Kiwoom Heroes

The Heroes own the second highest implied run total (5.5) in this slate as they take on William Cuevas. The latter is a solid pitcher but he’s posted an ugly 5.55 ERA through four starts this season. ByungHo Park (KIW), Jung Ho Lee (KIW) and Dong Won Park (KIW) (catcher) are the primary targets from this offense. Ha Seong Kim (KIW) is expensive but his high end upside is difficult to replicate at shortstop because he owns significant event upside. Kim is coming off a 2019 season in which he hit 19 home runs and stole 33 bases. In fact, he’s hit double digit home runs and stolen double digit bases in four of his last five full seasons at the KBO. We view him as a primary target as well. 

Honorable mention: This SK Wyverns vs. Hanwha Eagles game has a total of 9.5 only because these offenses have been horrific this season. However, both of their starting pitchers are very bad and allow tons of contact. Could this be the game where at least one of these offenses pan out? We recommend having some exposure to these offenses in GPPs as you’re very likely going to get low to potentially very low ownership here. 

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