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League of Legends DraftKings Picks For April 16th (3:00 AM ET Slate)

League of Legends DraftKings Picks For April 16th (3:00 AM ET Slate)
TheNumbersGuy
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Here are some LoL (League of Legends) elements that are relevant for us moving forward.

-There are six positions you’ll have to fill in your LoL lineups. Top, Jungle (JNG), Middle (MID), Attack Damage Carry (ADC), Support (SUP) and Team. The former five are actual positions that players take in the map, while Team is just an additional one that DraftKings added and will accrue less scoring. In other words, Team is the least important position when it comes to roster construction.

-LoL is a lot like baseball stacking wise. However, you want to stack players from a single team, not games. Stacking is pivotal in LoL DFS, particularly 4-3 and 3-3-1 stacks.

-Game stacking isn’t a winning proposition over the long run because ultimately, there’s a losing team. If you look at the statistics of losing teams in LoL, you’ll notice they will lack engagements (kills, creeps score), which ultimately hurts their score. However, there are losing teams that are aggressive and if you’re picking underdogs, you want to make sure they’re going after engagements.

-Speaking of engagements – you want to make sure that the players you select are looking for fights as often as possible. More fights = more opportunity for points. Simple enough, right?

League of Legends LPL/LCK Vegas Odds

LPL

Bilibili Gaming (-936) vs. Victory Five (+627) 

LGD (+360) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (-483) 

Top Esports (-103) vs. eStar (-118)

LCK

Griffin (+135) vs. Hanwha Life Esports (-165) 

APK Prince (+312) vs. DragonX (-409)

Starting Lineups

LPL

Top Esports

369 – Karsa – knight – JackeyLove – QiuQiu

eStar

Xiaobai – Wei – Cryin – Wink – ShiauC

LGD Gaming

Lies – Peanut – Yuuki – Kramer – Killua

FunPlus Phoenix

GimGoon – Tian – Doinb – Lwx – Crisp

Bilibili Gaming

Kingen – Meteor – FoFo – Jinjiao – XinMo

Victory Five

Aliez – xiaohan – Mole – y4 – clx

LCK

The LCK will not provide lineups before lock. They’re more consistent with their lineups but the fact that they don’t provide lineups before lock obviously creates some risk

Top Plays

Bilibili Gaming (-936) isn’t the most talented team in the LPL and they’re not the best scorers but they’re the deserving top play in this slate. In fact, Bilibili Gaming has performed at a below average team this season, posting a 0.90 kill to death ratio and a 45% win rate. Fortunately for them, they’re playing a road game in Coors Field and take on a Victory Five team that’s boosting everyone’s scores. Victory Five has won exactly once this spring season through 29 games and they’re averaging 19.7 deaths per game. For comparison’s sake, Rogue Warriors are averaging 16.5 deaths per game which is the second worst mark in the league. Ultimately, Victory Five is in a league of their own and they’re inflating opponents’ scores as a result. Kingen, Bilibili Gaming’s TOP player, will cost you $9,900 at the captain spot on DraftKings. He’s not one of their best scorers but he’s a better option than rostering a support at captain and ultimately he allows you to four man stack Bilibili Gaming while bringing it back with other strong stacks. Bilibili Gaming isn’t priced up for their ridiculous matchup and gigantic odds. Take advantage of this across all formats. 

FunPlus Phoenix (-483) should be viewed as the next in line option after Bilibili Gaming today. A dominant team, winning nearly 70% of their games this season and averaging 14.8 kills per game (third highest mark in the LPL), FunPlus Phoenix is always deserving of consideration regardless of matchup. Their matchup against LGD Gaming is a good one as the latter is averaging 14.6 deaths per game (fourth worst mark in the league) and is right around average in kills per game. My recommendation is to go after Tian (JNG) or Khan ($9,300) at captain in order to build a stack around their best scorers, Lwx (ADC) and Doinb (MID). 

We’re left with eStar (-118) playing third fiddle in this slate. This is often not the case for a team that’s averaging a whopping 17.7 kills per game this season and have won 65.7% of their games. They have two players in Wink (ADC) and Cryin (MID) that are averaging over 90 DraftKings points per game this season. You read that correctly. When eStar is on a roll, they can have 4 scorers on their team generating 100+ DraftKings points. That type of combined upside is unheard of. That alone makes them strong tournament targets despite the shakier odds. While Top Esports, their matchup, is an above average team, they’re typically a team that pushes the pace (14.8 kills per game/13.3 deaths per game this season).

Value Plays

DragonX (-409) are at the top of my value board today. They’re clearly the third highest favorite on the board as they take on APK Prince, one of the worst teams in the LCK this season. They’re averaging a league high 14.1 deaths per game and have the second worst win rate (40%). Meanwhile, DragonX leads the league in kills per game (12.7) and have posted the third highest win rate (67.4%). They also check in today in great form, winning all of their last six games.  DragonX players carry mid tier price tags in this slate, which allows you to play around with all different type of stack combinations. For instance, you could roster their talented MID, Chovy, for $10,800 at captain and fill out the rest of your roster with some of the other top plays in this slate. 

There’s also some decent contrarian value coming out of the Griffin (+135) vs. Hanwha Life Esports (-165) game. For starters, the most expensive player from both of these teams combined is HLE’s ADC, Vsta, and he’s just $7,000. You’re going to get very cheap prices across the board with these teams but they’re playing in the LCK and they don’t score well consistently. Top Esports (-103) has a tough matchup against eStar but this is a coin flip game as far as odds are concerned and this team is significantly better scoring wise than both Griffin and HLE. Their price tags are slightly more expensive but they’re the better value bets of the bunch despite being very slight underdogs today. The highly touted, JackeyLove, Top Esports’ ADC, can be rostered for just $7,200 today. His true price in a better context is closer to $8,200.

Video Content

We’ll be back next week with more video content! Stay tuned.


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