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League of Legends DraftKings Picks For April 1st (2:00 AM ET Slate)

League of Legends DraftKings Picks For April 1st (2:00 AM ET Slate)
TheNumbersGuy
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Here are some LoL (League of Legends) elements that are relevant for us moving forward.

-There are six positions you’ll have to fill in your LoL lineups. Top, Jungle (JNG), Middle (MID), Attack Damage Carry (ADC), Support (SUP) and Team. The former five are actual positions that players take in the map, while Team is just an additional one that DraftKings added and will accrue less scoring. In other words, Team is the least important position when it comes to roster construction.

-LoL is a lot like baseball stacking wise. However, you want to stack players from a single team, not games. Stacking is pivotal in LoL DFS, particularly 4-3 and 3-3-1 stacks.

-Game stacking isn’t a winning proposition over the long run because ultimately, there’s a losing team. If you look at the statistics of losing teams in LoL, you’ll notice they will lack engagements (kills, creeps score), which ultimately hurts their score. However, there are losing teams that are aggressive and if you’re picking underdogs, you want to make sure they’re going after engagements.

-Speaking of engagements – you want to make sure that the players you select are looking for fights as often as possible. More fights = more opportunity for points. Simple enough, right?

League of Legends LPL/LCK Vegas Odds

LPL

Royal Never Give Up (-3129) vs. Victory Five (+1575) 

Dominus Esports (+228) vs. LNG Esports (-289)

eStar (-350) vs. Vici Gaming (+271) 

LCK

Sandbox Gaming (+307) vs. DragonX (-402) 

KT Rolster (-506) vs. Griffin (+375) 

Gen. G (-138) vs. T1 (+114)

Starting Lineups

LPL

Dominus Esports

Natural – Xiaopeng – xiye – GALA – Mark

LNG Esports

Flandre – Xx – Maple – Asura – lwandy

eStar

Xiaobai – Wei – Cryin – Wink – ShiauC

Vici Gaming

Cube – Aix – Forge – iBoy – Hang

Victory Five

Aliez – xiaohan – clx – y4 – Max

Royal Never Give Up

Langx – XLB – Xiaohu – Betty – Ming

LCK

The LCK will not provide lineups before lock. They’re more consistent with their lineups but the fact that they don’t provide lineups before lock obviously creates some risk.

Top Plays

eStar (-350) and Royal Never Give Up (-3129) headline the top plays in this slate. This is clearly a matchup of the best team in the league (eStar) vs. an average team with an unbelievable matchup (RNG). Ultimately, we’re going to side with RNG and it goes beyond the matchup. We’ll start with eStar. According to gamesoflegends.com, eStar is averaging 19 kills per game. As a team. They carry a 1.64 kill to death ratio on the season. Both marks top the league by a significant margin. eStar has two players on their team – Wink (ADC) and Cryin (MID) – that are averaging over 100 DraftKings points per game this season. You read that correctly. This team is loaded with talent everywhere and they’re always in play regardless of matchup. Speaking of matchup, Vici Gaming is a below average team that has posted a 0.86 kill to death ratio this season. This is a strong matchup and eStar’s loaded squad should be able to take advantage. However, they’re priced in a way that takes away any opportunity to use a 4 man eStar stack and run it back with a 3 man stack of another favored team in this slate. You’ll have to use an underdog if you wanted to 4 man stack eStar. That’s very much a viable strategy in this slate, particularly for GPPs, but it doesn’t look like an optimal way of building lineups at this point. 

Then there’s RNG, an above average team with a 58% win rate this season and a 1.22 kill to death ratio. They’re middle of the pack in kills per game (13.1). They’re very clearly not as skilled as eStar. However, their matchup against Victory Five is beyond great. If you’ve followed League of Legends for a little bit, at this point you have to know that Victory Five is like rostering players in Coors Field against below average pitching (I know, I miss baseball too). Victory Five is averaging 18.8 deaths per game, which tops the league, and they’ve only won one game this season. Our recommendation is to captain Ming, their support player, which opens up a lane to use a 4 RNG stack with another favorite coming back in this slate. We’d prioritize Betty (ADC) and potentially Xiaohu (MID) in that stack but not as captains. Their Jungler, XLB, is also in play. Essentially anyone from this team is viable tonight given their matchup but you’ll notice that they’re all priced up given their odds (massive -3129 favorites). This is an upside spot for RNG and you should treat it as such. 

Value Plays

Gen.G (-138) and T1 (+114) represent the top value plays in a slate that makes it difficult to 4 man stack the top plays. The challenge here is that they’re facing each other tonight and while Gen.G has been the top team in the LCK this season, winning 82% of their games and leading the league in kills per game (12.8), this is closer to a coin flip toss game. After all, T1 is a very good team in their own right, averaging 11.9 kills per game and a 74.1% win rate. They’re easily the best underdog in this slate and it’s not particularly close. Ultimately, whichever team wins this game will score well relative to salary but it’s clear that this isn’t an upside spot for either team. Both teams are ranked in the bottom in deaths per game and this league plays at a snail pace compared to the LPL. These teams fit like a glove with 4 man RNG stacks and 3 man eStar stacks and that’s why they’re quite important in this slate. 

KT Rolster (-506) and DragonX (-402) are appropriately priced relative to their odds though you could argue that DragonX is a little bit underpriced relative to their skill in the LCK. These teams stand out if you wanted to build more balanced rosters with 4-3 stacks in mind and using solely favorites. The same thing could be said about LNG Esports (-289). 

As an additional note: 4-2-1 stacks are going to be very much in play in this slate. If you’re building those stacks, our recommendation for the 4 man stack is to build around the value teams instead of the top plays. Ultimately, this will result in you using as many good plays as possible in this slate without having to dip your toes elsewhere.

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