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League of Legends DraftKings Picks For April 2nd (2:00 AM ET Slate)

League of Legends DraftKings Picks For April 2nd (2:00 AM ET Slate)
TheNumbersGuy
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Here are some LoL (League of Legends) elements that are relevant for us moving forward.

-There are six positions you’ll have to fill in your LoL lineups. Top, Jungle (JNG), Middle (MID), Attack Damage Carry (ADC), Support (SUP) and Team. The former five are actual positions that players take in the map, while Team is just an additional one that DraftKings added and will accrue less scoring. In other words, Team is the least important position when it comes to roster construction.

-LoL is a lot like baseball stacking wise. However, you want to stack players from a single team, not games. Stacking is pivotal in LoL DFS, particularly 4-3 and 3-3-1 stacks.

-Game stacking isn’t a winning proposition over the long run because ultimately, there’s a losing team. If you look at the statistics of losing teams in LoL, you’ll notice they will lack engagements (kills, creeps score), which ultimately hurts their score. However, there are losing teams that are aggressive and if you’re picking underdogs, you want to make sure they’re going after engagements.

-Speaking of engagements – you want to make sure that the players you select are looking for fights as often as possible. More fights = more opportunity for points. Simple enough, right?

League of Legends LPL/LCK Vegas Odds

LPL

LGD Gaming (+202) vs. Team WE (-254) 

Rogue Warriors (+258) vs. Bilibili Gaming (-331) 

Suning (+220) vs. Top Esports (-278)

LCK 

APK Prince (+271) vs. Afreeca Freecs (-359) 

Hanwha Life Esports (+175) vs. Damwon Gaming (-217) 

KT Rolster (+136) vs. DragonX (-166)  

Starting Lineups

LPL

Suning

Biubiu – SofM – Angel – huanfeng – SwordArt

Top Esports

369 – Karsa – knight – Photic – QiuQiu

Rogue Warriors

Holder – Haro – Ruby – ZWuJi – Ley

Bilibili Gaming

ADD – Meteor – FoFo – Jinjiao – XinMo

LGD Gaming

Cult – Peanut – Yuuki – Kramer – Killua

Team WE

Morgan – beishang – Teacherma – Jiumeng – Missing

LCK

The LCK will not provide lineups before lock. They’re more consistent with their lineups but the fact that they don’t provide lineups before lock obviously creates some risk.

Top Plays

Team WE (-254) are at the top of our list of preferences in this slate. Their matchup against LGD Gaming is as good as it gets today. LGD Gaming is averaging 15.4 deaths per game – good for the fourth highest mark in the LPL. They’ve only won 36.4% of their games this season. This is also a team that’s averaging 13.6 kills per game. They play at a high pace while Team WE typically plays at a much lower pace. All things considered, this is a clear upside spot for Team WE and they’re priced that way. Teacherma (MID) and Jiumeng (ADC) are priced as the most expensive players on the board in this slate but they’re also the top scorers of all the available players in action. A way to get both of them in your lineup plus an additional Team WE option is by captaining Missing, their Support player that will cost you $9,300 at captain. It’s possible to run 4 man Team WE stacks but you’ll only be able to bring it back with one other 3 man stack that’s favored in this slate. My guess is you’ll need to use underdog stacks coming back with Team WE in order to be different. 

Then there’s Bilibili Gaming (-331), a team that’s clearly overpriced relative to all the numbers they’ve put up to this point of the season. They’re averaging just 9.9 kills per game and have won just 40% of their games this season. The clear argument here is that their schedule has been beyond brutal, specifically of late. Bilibili Gaming has played Team WE, FunPlus Phoenix, eStar, JD Gaming and Oh My God over the last five games. They were impressive against Team WE and pulled off an upset victory, but the previous matchups ranged from okay to disaster performances. Thankfully for Bilibili Gaming, they finally get an upside matchup where their top players (Jinjiao, their ADC and Fofo, their MID) should shine and as a result we view them as clearly the second best plays in this slate. Rogue Warriors are averaging 17.5 deaths per game, which is the second highest mark in the LPL this spring season. They’re also averaging an above average amount of kills. If you captain Xinmo, their support player, it’s possible to run a Team WE/Bilibili Gaming stack. This feels like a potential chalky route in this slate but keep in mind that support players typically don’t receive an overwhelming amount of ownership at captain. 

Value Plays

DragonX (-166) sits at the top of the value board today. They’re favored in a matchup against KT Rolster, a slightly above average team that owns a 50% win rate this season. DragonX is sitting pretty with a 63% win rate, good for third in the league. Their 12.6 kills per game ranks second in the LCK this spring season. DragonX is going to score well IF they pull off the win, as is typically the case in a significantly lower paced league like the LCK. They’re priced as slight favorites but their most expensive player, Chovy (MID), is just $6,800. This makes it easier to stack them in multiple ways and have exposure to our top stacks as well. 

On the other side of this, KT Rolster (+136) is a slight underdog but they’re priced as a massive underdog. Their incredibly cheap price tags will fit like a glove with 4 man expensive stacks in this slate. Aiming, their top player and their ADC, can be rostered at captain for just $9,300 on DraftKings. That’s typically how support players are priced for favorites. 

DAMWON Gaming (-217) aren’t exactly cheap across the board but they’re affordable enough, especially when considering a couple of expensive options from the top stacks in this slate. Their matchup against Hanwha Life Esports is well above average, as the latter ranks second in the league in deaths per game (12.9). 

If picking an upset, Suning (+220) makes too much sense, particularly when taking into account their bottom of the barrel price tags. Suning is very close to being an average team in the LPL. They’re clearly above league average in kills per game (13.6) but they’re also averaging 14.2 deaths per game, which ranks in the top half of the league. Top Esports, their opponent, have won 60% of their games this season but they’re clearly below the Invictus/FunPlus Phoenix/eStar tier of dominant teams. To put things into perspective, their super talented ADC, huanfeng, will cost you a grand total of $6,800 on DraftKings tonight. Heck, it’s even possible to captain huanfeng at $10,300 and make a very viable 4-3 stack. Ultimately, Suning is just not priced anywhere near their talent level and that’s why they’re so intriguing from a GPP perspective. 

Video Content

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/580842988


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