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League of Legends DraftKings Picks For April 3rd (2:00 AM ET Slate)

League of Legends DraftKings Picks For April 3rd (2:00 AM ET Slate)
TheNumbersGuy
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Here are some LoL (League of Legends) elements that are relevant for us moving forward.

-There are six positions you’ll have to fill in your LoL lineups. Top, Jungle (JNG), Middle (MID), Attack Damage Carry (ADC), Support (SUP) and Team. The former five are actual positions that players take in the map, while Team is just an additional one that DraftKings added and will accrue less scoring. In other words, Team is the least important position when it comes to roster construction.

-LoL is a lot like baseball stacking wise. However, you want to stack players from a single team, not games. Stacking is pivotal in LoL DFS, particularly 4-3 and 3-3-1 stacks.

-Game stacking isn’t a winning proposition over the long run because ultimately, there’s a losing team. If you look at the statistics of losing teams in LoL, you’ll notice they will lack engagements (kills, creeps score), which ultimately hurts their score. However, there are losing teams that are aggressive and if you’re picking underdogs, you want to make sure they’re going after engagements.

-Speaking of engagements – you want to make sure that the players you select are looking for fights as often as possible. More fights = more opportunity for points. Simple enough, right?

League of Legends LPL/LCK Vegas Odds

LPL 

Edward Gaming (-490) vs. Dominus Esports (+365) 

Invictus Gaming (-2951) vs. Victory Five (+1510)

Royal Never Give Up (+109) vs. eStar (-132) 

LCK 

Gen. G (-1395) vs. SANDBOX Gaming (+861) 

T1 (-1984) vs. Griffin (+1128) 

Afreeca Freecs (+108) vs. DAMWON Gaming (-131)

Starting Lineups

LPL

Royal Never Give Up

Langx – XLB – Xiaohu – Betty – Ming

eStar

Xiaobai – Wei – Cryin – Wink – ShiauC

Invictus Gaming

TheShy – Leyan – Rookie – Puff – Southwind

Victory Five

Aliez – xiaohan – clx – y4 – Max

Edward Gaming

Aodi – Junjia – Scout – Hope – Meiko

DMO

Natural – Xiaopeng – xiye – GALA – Mark

LCK

The LCK will not provide lineups before lock. They’re more consistent with their lineups but the fact that they don’t provide lineups before lock obviously creates some risk.

Top Plays

Invictus Gaming (-2951) represents the top plays in a slate that’s littered with massive favorites. Invictus Gaming should be considered a top three team in the LPL. As things stand right now, they carry the best win rate (76.2%) in the league and they’ve generated the second most kills (17.5) per game in the league. They also die (16.6 deaths per game – third highest mark in the league) frequently. Their frenetic pace meets Victory Five tonight, the Coors Field bump matchup. Victory Five has won exactly one game this spring season, good for a 4.8% win rate and they’re averaging an absurd 18.4 deaths per game, which easily tops the league. Invictus Gaming is priced just under eStar at most positions but they’re the heaviest favorite in this slate and deserve to be viewed as the top options. If you want to fit in Puff (ADC) and Rookie (MID), you’ll have to captain Southwind, their support player. Southwind will cost you $9,600 in the captain spot on DraftKings and while most will question the upside of a lineup with two support players in it, keep in mind that this specific support carries upside well into the 90s in DraftKings points. You can run 4 man Invictus Gaming stacks and bring them back with a DAMWON Gaming stack. Otherwise, you’re running Invictus Gaming stacks with some rather ugly underdogs. 

One of the better questions in this slate is how do you rank the next best plays after Invictus Gaming? There’s eStar (-132), a very small favorite but clearly the best of the remaining teams in action. They’re averaging 18.3 kills per game and have posted a 1.49 kill to death ratio this spring season. They’ve also won 70% of their games. Their ADC, Wink, and MID, Cryin, are averaging over 100 DraftKings points per game. You read that correctly. Their matchup against Royal Never Give up is a difficult one (10.2 deaths per game ranks in the bottom of the league; have won 60% of their games this season) but if they pull off the win, there’s a good chance they’ll score very well regardless of matchup. 

Do you rank some of these LCK teams like T1 (-1984) and Gen. G (-1395) ahead of eStar today because they’re significantly higher favorites? These are two of the most dominant teams in the LCK, winning 74% and 82% of their games respectively this spring season. Their matchups are average on the whole but as is typically the case, they’ll have to win to score well, especially when you consider that they’ve been priced up in this slate due to their massive odds to win. You’re not going to be able to stack these teams alongside Invictus Gaming and my guess is their ownership is going to be kept in check regardless of their odds. Edward Gaming (-490) is a LPL team in a good matchup (Dominus Esports are averaging 13.2 deaths per game) and you could conceivably rank them ahead of the big LCK favorites. 

Value Plays

DAMWON Gaming (-131) is the only favored team in this slate that can be ran back as a stack with Invictus Gaming or eStar. In fact, you could captain their ADC, Gala, for just $9,600 on DraftKings. If doing so, you’d be able to double up on ADCs. They’re an easy fit in this slate. They’re not a very good team, though (0.90 kill to death ratio, 44.4% win rate this season), which gives us some pause. 

If you want to invest in a good team that’s cheap, look no further than Royal Never Give up (+109). RNG has won over 60% of their games this spring season and they’ve posted a 1.29 kill to death ratio. This is a very good team – they’re just not as good as their opponent, eStar. Let’s face it – their matchup isn’t any good but they will be playing up in pace and eStar is coming off an ugly loss against Vici Gaming. Ultimately, RNG is just incredibly cheap and IF they pull off a win here, they’ll crush these tiny price tags. Vegas is giving them tons of respect in this matchup, as the odds are closer to a toss up matchup than anything else. 

The other value team that’s worth a look in this slate is Afreeca Freecs (+108). They’re a below average team as well but like RNG, their odds are closer to a toss up. DAMWON Gaming is averaging 12.1 deaths per game, good for third highest mark in the league. There’s hope here that a plus matchup and a potential win generates good scores across the board, especially relative to their price tags. 

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